Don't Panic Bills Fans, Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills Can Reenter AFC East Race

Buffalo Bills fans have become spoiled. That isn't meant to be a negative statement, but it's true. Josh Allen has emerged as one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the NFL, and since he has, Buffalo has been a powerhouse.

The Bills have won five straight AFC East titles, which has essentially given them a free pass into the postseason every year. Now, though, Buffalo's AFC East supremacy is being challenged, and its path to the playoffs must be earned.

If the season ended today, the Bills would be the AFC's No. 6 seed. That's become unfamiliar territory for fans, and making it feel worse is the fact that Buffalo is 6-3 and coming off a blowout loss to the Miami Dolphins.

However, it's far too early to panic. The Bills are a flawed team right now, but they have eight games remaining in which to figure things out. Along the way, they'll have a chance to recapture the division and set themselves up for a deep playoff run.

Why Has the AFC East Balance of Power Shifted (and Why Does That Matter)?

AP Photo/Gary McCullough

Patriots QB Drake Maye

The reality is that fans probably wouldn't be concerned at all if the Bills were sitting at 6-3 but still atop the AFC East. Winning the division means getting at least one home game. That's a playoff advantage the Bills have enjoyed every year for the last half-decade.

While Buffalo has clearly been the best team in the division during that span, the competition hasn't exactly been top-tier. The Bills have finished with no fewer than 11 wins in a season during their recent reign, while the rest of the division has produced just one 11-win squad and three wild-card teams.

The New England Patriots went 10-7 in 2021, while the Dolphins went 9-8 and 11-6 in 2022 and 2023, respectively.

Unfortunately, Buffalo no longer appears to be the best team in the division. At least, it hasn't been through the first 10 weeks. That honor belongs to the new-look Patriots, who have the new quarterback du jour in Drake Maye.

In only his second season, Maye has become the sort of difference-maker that Josh Allen has long been for Buffalo. After getting the Patriots to 8-2 against a good Tampa Bay Buccaneers team on Sunday, Maye emerged as the new MVP favorite.

The Patriots have become the team to beat in the AFC East for the first time since Tom Brady's heyday. That leaves Buffalo battling with the likes of the Houston Texans, Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens and Jacksonville Jaguars for a wild-card spot. That's less than ideal, as it could mean facing a team like New England or the Denver Broncos on the road in January.

What's Wrong With the Bills This Season?

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Bills head coach Sean McDermott

New England's rise is clearly part of the equation and a big reason why some Bills fans are (and should be) a bit concerned. It doesn't tell the entire story, though.

While Buffalo was handed its first loss of the season by New England, 23-20 in Week 5, lopsided losses to the Atlanta Falcons and Miami have ensued.

This doesn't feel like the same Bills team that won 13 games and made Allen the NFL MVP a year ago. There's a reason for that: it isn't.

Now, injuries, especially on defense, have been a big part of the problem. The Bills recently placed defensive linemen Michael Hoecht and Ed Oliver on injured reserve. Defensive lineman T.J. Slaton and safeties Taylor Rapp and Damar Hamlin are also on injured reserve.

Buffalo's list of inactives in Week 10 included pass-rusher A.J. Epenesa, cornerback Christian Benford, linebacker Shaq Thompson and cornerback Taron Johnson.

On the road against a familiar opponent, those defensive injuries proved critical.

Buffalo's issues haven't been limited to the defensive side of the ball, though. The team's lack of a field-stretching go-to receiver has also created problems. Opposing defenses have been willing to play closer to the line of scrimmage, attack the run and force Allen to play hero ball—which, as it always has, can make him prone to mistakes.

Losing tight end Dalton Kincaid to a hamstring injury in Week 10 certainly didn't help matters.

These issues haven't gone unnoticed by general manager Brandon Beane and the rest of the Bills brass either. According to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero, Buffalo tried to acquire wideout Jaylen Waddle from the Dolphins and defensive lineman Quinnen Williams from the New York Jets at the trade deadline.

Unsurprisingly, the Bills couldn't work out a deal with either AFC East foe. They didn't add anyone else either. Receiver Rashid Shaheed, linebacker Logan Wilson, edge-rusher Dre'Mont Jones and cornerback Roger McCreary were among the players who could have helped Buffalo and were dealt elsewhere—meaning Buffalo's biggest issues, for the time being, remain.

How Can the Bills Adapt?

AP Photo/Kyusung Gong

Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady

Unfortunately, there isn't an easy fix for Buffalo's defensive injuries. The list of bargain free agents still available is limited, and while a guy like Christian Wilkins or Justin Simmons could help the Bills, he couldn't plug every hole.

And while head coach Sean McDermott can certainly stress better tackling, too, it's hard to imagine that he hasn't already.

What the Bills can do is aid their defense by playing more efficiently on offense, giving the defense time to rest and putting points on the board. Above all else, protecting the ball must be a point of emphasis.

Buffalo actually won the time-of-possession battle against Miami, but its three turnovers changed the complexion of the game.

Now, getting the offense to play a better brand of ball is easier in theory than in practice. However, offensive coordinator Joe Brady can start by settling Allen down and preventing him from trying to do too much. Let's not forget that a big part of Allen's MVP bid last season was his drop from 18 interceptions the previous season to six—he already has five this year.

The Bills leaned heavily on their running game last season while allowing Allen to play within the offensive structure. They're trying to do that again this season—they rank first in rushing attempts—but it's been trickier when teams sell out to stop the run. And it's been tough to create running room when the deep-passing game is pretty much predicated on Allen running around until someone finally breaks free of coverage.

Brady has to figure out ways to get his receivers open more quickly if Buffalo is going to stop being so one-dimensional. That'll be a challenge without a true No. 1 receiver on the roster, but using Ty Johnson in the passing game more or using the speedy Elijah Moore as a decoy might help.

Getting Josh Palmer (ankle) back will also help, as he leads the team in yards per catch (16.7), but the Bills can do a better job of utilizing him once he's healthy. Palmer has seen just 20 targets in his six appearances.

More run-pass options and more frequent play-action passes could further keep opponents off-balance. Allen has run only 15 RPOs all season, while the Bills average fewer than seven play-action passes per game. The Los Angeles Rams, by comparison, run a league-high 9.7 play-action passes per game.

One way or another the Bills have to make their offense more multifaceted if they hope to offset their biggest weaknesses.

Margin for Error is Almost Nonexistent

AP Photo/Doug Murray

Bills QB Josh Allen is sacked by Dolphins S Minkah Fitzpatrick.

Here's the bad news, Bills fans. If the Patriots are going to adapt and adjust in order to get back to their winning ways, they have to do it now. Buffalo already has one head-to-head loss against New England to go with a 2-2 divisional record. That means the Patriots would own a pair of tiebreakers over Buffalo even if the two teams had the same record—which, obviously, they do not.

To win the East, the Bills have to get help and play pretty much perfectly down the stretch, and that won't be easy.

The injury bug isn't simply going to vanish, and the remaining schedule is far from forgiving. The Bills face another tough test in Week 11, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers coming to town.

After Tampa will be a road matchup with the Houston Texans and their NFL-best defense. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles are also on Buffalo's remaining schedule, along with a Week 15 rematch with New England.

In other words, the Bills can't simply win the games they're supposed to win and claim another division title—or even reach the postseason, for that matter. It's not time to panic yet, but with another loss or two, it will be.

But the Patriots Haven't Clinched Yet

AP Photo/Adrian Kraus

Bills edge A.J. Epenesa rushes Patriots QB Drake Maye.

Now for the good news, Bills fans. While the Patriots do have that head-to-head win over Buffalo and a superior record, they haven't come close to clinching the AFC East just yet. While New England's remaining schedule is easier than Buffalo's, it doesn't mean the path is wide open either.

It feels unlikely that New England will fall to a team like the New York Jets or Cincinnati Bengals, but nothing is guaranteed. Let's not forget that the Patriots have lost to the lowly Las Vegas Raiders and inconsistent Pittsburgh Steelers. They also recorded narrow victories over the Dolphins, Falcons and New Orleans Saints.

And with four divisional games left on their slate, the Patriots could easily slip up. Familiar opponents always make for unpredictable outcomes.

If the Bills can't make up ground on the Patriots any other way, that Week 15 rematch in New England could be the difference-maker. Assuming both teams go undefeated until then, that would draw Buffalo even with New England in losses. It would also place a ton of pressure on the Patriots heading into a Week 16 game against a desperate Baltimore Ravens team.

While getting to that Week 15 matchup with a 10-3 record won't be easy, the Bills can accomplish it by tweaking their offense, treating every game like a must-win and getting a little help in the health department.

The Bills certainly haven't had good fortune on the injury front this year, but Sanders is eligible to return from IR this week, and Palmer did log a couple of limited practices last week before being ruled out.

So, yes, Bills fans can have hope that the AFC race is still within reach. Just two years ago, Buffalo entered Week 13 at 6-6 while the Dolphins seemed to control the division at 8-3. Six weeks later, Buffalo claimed the division crown.

The Bills now have eight weeks to spark a similar turnaround.

*Advanced statistics from Pro Football Reference.