CFP Bracket Predictions After Latest 2025 Playoff Bowl Rankings Projections

The 2025 college football season is far from over, but the playoff picture is beginning to come into focus. On Tuesday, the College Football Playoff (CFP) selection committee released its first official rankings of the year.

There weren't many surprises on the initial list, aside, perhaps, from the fact that upstart Indiana is ranked at No. 2—though, the tape certainly suggests that the ranking is warranted.

Texas Tech and Notre Dame both entered top-10 territory, while Texas and Oklahoma both fell outside of the top 10 but round out the top 12.

This year's College Football Playoff (CFP) will again see 12 teams in the field, but the top four seeds will no longer go to the highest-seeded conference champions, but to the highest seeds overall. That's why we could easily see two teams from the same conference earn first-round byes.

CFP Rankings Entering Week 11

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Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza

1. Ohio State

2. Indiana

3. Texas A&M

4. Alabama

5. Georgia

6. Mississippi

7. BYU

8. Texas Tach

9. Oregon

10. Notre Dame

11. Texas

12. Oklahoma

13. Utah

14. Virginia

15. Louisville

16. Vanderbilt

17. Georgia Tech

18. Miami

19. USC

20. Iowa

21. Michigan

22. Missouri

23. Washington

24. Pittsburgh

25. Tennessee

Pivotal Week 11 Matchups

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BYU QB Bear Bachmeier

The upcoming slate will have an impact on the CFP race, and a few matchups could be critical.

Top-ranked Ohio State is highly unlikely to be upset by a two-win Purdue team, but conference matchups can be tricky to navigate. That's precisely why Indiana's game against Penn State will be worth watching.

Is Indiana the better team with the better quarterback? Absolutely. The Hoosiers are for real, and Fernando Mendoza is a big reason why. However, that doesn't mean Indiana can simply overlook the Nittany Lions.

"Still the same guys they started the year with for the most part that was ranked No. 1 to No. 3 in the country, so a lot of good football players at all positions, playing really hard," Indiana coach Curt Cignetti said, per Mark Wogenrich of SI.com.

If the Hoosiers want to prove they belong among the nation's elite, they have to avoid potential trap games like Saturday's.

Saturday will also bring an important showdown between BYU and Texas Tech, who would both be in the CFP if the season ended right now. There's a good chance one of them will be on the outside looking in after Week 11, though.

Notre Dame has a matchup with Navy on the docket for Saturday evening. Service academies can make for extremely difficult stylistic matchups, and the Midshipmen boast a 7-1 record.

An upset doesn't feel likely for the Irish, but nothing is guaranteed.

The same can be said about Alabama's matchup with LSU. While the Tigers are just 2-3 in SEC play this season and don't have the same level of talent as Alabama, rivalries can level the playing field.

No. 3 Texas A&M and No. 19 Missouri will also face off on Saturday in a game that, if all goes as expected, will likely knock Missouri out of the playoff picture.

CFP Bracket Projections

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Texas A&M WR Terry Bussey

Byes

Ohio State

Texas A&M

Indiana

Alabama

First Round

12. Memphis at No. 5 Georgia

11. Virginia at 6. Oregon

10. Notre Dame at 7. Mississippi

9. Texas Tech at 8. BYU

During the spring, CFP administrators approved a change to the bracket model, introducing straight seeding to the 12-team field. While the five highest-ranked conference champions will still earn automatic bids, the four first-round byes will no longer go to the four highest-seeded conference champs.

This is why we could easily see a scenario in which Ohio State defeats Indiana in the Big 10 title game and both teams still earn top-four seeds.

In other words, conference championships will still be important but won't be critical for top-ranked teams focused solely on winning a national title. We're not at a point where teams are likely to rest starters in a conference championship—teams still have to pass the committee's "eye test"—but some teams may be more cautious with injured players than in past years.

This year's at-large field will be largely settled in the coming weeks, and we may see a surprise surge into the playoff based on upcoming matchups.

Texas, for example, is currently a top-12 team but still has matchups with No. 5 Georgia and No. 3 Texas A&M on the schedule. As second-tier teams start to fall, a Cinderella squad will undoubtedly rise—which in many ways, was the goal of an expanded College Football Playoff in the first place.