Ranking Mets Closer Edwin Diaz's Top 10 Landing Spots in Free Agency After Opting Out
Though unsurprising, it is now official: Three-time All-Star Edwin Díaz is a free agent again, exercising the opt-out clause in his five-year, $102 million contract with the New York Mets to forgo the final two years and $38 million in pursuit of a more lucrative deal, per The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal.
He's almost certainly going to get it, with Spotrac putting his market value at four years, $73.4 million—an AAV on par with what Tanner Scott (four years, $72M) and Josh Hader (five years, $95M) have signed in recent winters.
Díaz missed the entirety of the first year of his contract because of the knee injury he suffered in the 2023 World Baseball Classic. He also wasn't anything special for most of the 2024 campaign, giving the Mets a 3.52 ERA with seven blown saves to just 20 successful conversions. But he was dynamite in 2025, arguably the best closer in the National League, if not the best reliever in all of baseball, going 28-for-31 on save chances with a 1.63 ERA and 0.87 WHIP.
He turns 32 in March and is surely the pièce de résistance of this year's class of available closers, with Robert Suarez more than three years Díaz's elder, while the slightly-younger-than-Díaz Ryan Helsley had a horrific final two months of the season and might now be viewed as more of a reclamation project. As such, Díaz could command a contract with a total value more than double that of the next-best reliever this winter.
Which teams are most likely to make that happen?
We've ranked the top 10 candidates, based on a combination of team need (why would the Astros or Phillies want another closer?), postseason potential (why would the White Sox or Rockies bother?) and presumed room in the budget for a roughly $20 million-per-year closer (how could the Reds or Guardians afford him?).
10. San Diego Padres
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Current Plan at Closer: Mason Miller if he remains a reliever; Adrián Morejón if Miller is moving to the rotation
Postseason Potential: 20-1 World Series odds
Payroll Situation: $283M in 2025, current $230M estimate for 2026
After having their own closer (Robert Suarez) opt out of the final two years on his contract, the San Diego Padres are the ultimate wild card in the Edwin Díaz bidding war.
What are they going to do with Mason Miller?
Even with what is basically a two-pitch arsenal, Miller is maybe the most dominant reliever in all of baseball right now. Conventional wisdom says he is the heir apparent to Suarez as San Diego's closer for the next four years before he hits free agency.
But with Dylan Cease and Michael King hitting free agency right now, the Padres rotation is a mess and they might try to stretch Miller back out to a starting pitcher—as they did with great success with Seth Lugo a couple years ago.
If that's the case, do they just let it ride with the bullpen arms they have, even though Morejón has five career saves, Jeremiah Estrada has four and their most experienced closer (Jason Adam, 24 saves) likely to miss the start of the season after rupturing his quadriceps tendon? Or could they backfill the Suarez/Miller vacancy at closer with an established star like Díaz?
If they believe Miller can be a legitimate No. 2/3 starter, giving Díaz 4/$80M to close is a cheaper solution than, say, re-signing Cease for 7/$185M and leaving Miller at closer. Of course, the cheapest solution is Miller as a starter and Morejón in the ninth, but we'll see how San Diego opts to play it.
9. Texas Rangers
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Current Plan at Closer: Robert Garcia
Postseason Potential: 30-1 World Series odds
Payroll Situation: $239M in 2025, current $209M estimate for 2026
Aside from the 102-loss Chicago White Sox, the Texas Rangers were the only team to not have an individual reliever record at least 10 saves in 2025. And aside from the Los Angeles Angels (33), no team had more blown saves than Texas' 29.
They still managed to finish 81-81 and were two games out of the playoff picture with two weeks remaining before stumbling to the finish line. But it's hardly a stretch to suggest the Rangers would have been a playoff team—maybe even the best team in the American League—if they hadn't been such an inconsistent mess in the ninth inning.
The fit/need is so obvious that the Rangers would probably be No. 1 on this list...if we didn't already have reports they're trying to trim payroll this offseason.
And, well, signing a closer to something like an $80 million contract is the polar opposite of trimming payroll.
Maybe they could make an Edwin Díaz signing work, though, if they non-tender Adolis García and sign basically no one else at all this winter?
They do already have a solid lineup that averaged 5.3 runs per game in July and August after a dreadful first half of the season. They also already have Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and high hopes for previous top-three overall draft picks Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker and might be mostly OK in the rotation.
It's plausible they could make one big swing for a closer in an otherwise quiet offseason.
8. San Francisco Giants
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Current Plan at Closer: Ryan Walker
Postseason Potential: 40-1 World Series odds
Payroll Situation: $218M in 2025, current $186M estimate for 2026
When the Giants traded away Camilo Doval with two years of team control remaining, it was clear they were planning on cementing Randy Rodríguez as their closer. Unfortunately, that breakout All-Star didn't even last a month before undergoing Tommy John surgery, which will keep him on the shelf for the entirety of 2026.
As things stand, they're looking at Erik Miller (zero saves, five blown saves and 24 holds in his two-year career) and Ryan Walker (28 career saves, but struggled for much of 2025) as their primary late-inning options.
In other words, they certainly meet the "needs a closer" criterion.
At 40-1 to win it all, though, they have the worst 2026 World Series odds among these 10 teams.
They also already have six players with a combined luxury-tax payroll hit of $140 million and probably don't have a ton of spending room this offseason. Moreover, what cash they do have on hand is probably earmarked for a starting pitcher instead of a closer, as that rotation is looking like a full house consisting of two aces and a trio of fives.
Maybe that trade for Rafael Devers was the beginning of a new era, though, in which the Giants are willing to spend their way out of .500 purgatory after six consecutive years with an Opening Day payroll ranking between 10th and 14th highest?
With Rodríguez presumably back in 2027, chances are they'll go the one-year route to address their closer deficiency, either signing Kenley Jansen or trading for Pete Fairbanks. But never say never.
7. Baltimore Orioles
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Current Plan at Closer: Keegan Akin and/or Yennier Cano
Postseason Potential: 30-1 World Series odds
Payroll Situation: $176M in 2025, current $104M estimate for 2026
With Félix Bautista likely to miss most of 2026 following surgery to repair a torn rotator cuff and torn labrum, Baltimore's need for a closer is again as dire as it was heading into the 2023-24 offseason, when they knew that Bautista would miss all of 2024 following Tommy John surgery.
Back then, they went the one-year band-aid route, signing Craig Kimbrel for $13 million—and living to regret it, as he allowed 23 earned runs over his final 18 innings pitched before they finally gave up and released him.
At this point, though, they've got to be worried Bautista will never be the same again, right?
The average velocity on his sinker (97.2 mph) was already more than two mph below what it was pre-TJ (99.5), and his K/BB ratio (2.17) was barely half of what it was in 2023 (4.23). And even if Bautista does come back as good or better than he was this past season, 2027 will be his last before free agency anyway, making his eventual return basically the new band-aid solution.
Would they really invest as much as it would take to land Edwin Díaz, though?
We'll see where the arbitration salaries for Trevor Rogers, Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells and Kyle Bradish land, but it's plausible they'll spend less than $20 million in 2026 on the combined force of that quartet of starters, plus Grayson Rodriguez and Cade Povich.
Spending that same amount on a single closer would be wild, but it does address a major need for a team that wasn't half bad after that dreadful 16-34 start.
6. New York Yankees
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Current Plan at Closer: David Bednar
Postseason Potential: 15-2 World Series odds
Payroll Situation: $378M in 2025, current $258M estimate for 2026
The Yankees acquired non-rental closers David Bednar (FA after 2026) and Camilo Doval (FA after 2027) at the trade deadline, and Bednar did fare quite well for them, quickly becoming the primary choice for the ninth inning.
Could they make a big move for an established closer now, planning ahead for next winter when Bednar might be the best arm available by a country mile?
They could also just extend Bednar now if they believe in him long-term, but the bullpen in general figures to be a huge offseason focal point for the Yankees after they posted a team-wide relief ERA of 4.37. There's no good reason part of that plan couldn't include signing a second closer.
Besides, with the Dodgers celebrating back-to-back titles and three in the span of six years, don't the Yankees have to do something splashier than re-signing Cody Bellinger in pursuit of what would be just their second World Series in 26 years?
And don't they kind of owe it to the Mets to sign at least one of Edwin Díaz and Pete Alonso, if not both after last winter's pilfering of Juan Soto?
They're going to do something big this offseason. It doesn't need to be at closer, but it could be.
5. Toronto Blue Jays
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Current Plan at Closer: Jeff Hoffman
Postseason Potential: 20-1 World Series odds
Payroll Situation: $290M in 2025, current $242M estimate for 2026
Even if that fateful pitch to Miguel Rojas hadn't happened, there was a good chance the Blue Jays were going to be looking to reinvest in a closer this offseason. They took a shot on Jeff Hoffman and the 12 career saves he had prior to this season, and they posted the best record in the American League in spite of his 4.37 ERA and seven blown saves.
And after the World Series ended the way it did, can they possibly plan on just keeping the status quo?
The last time a home run of that magnitude happened in Toronto, the Phillies didn't even wait six weeks before trading Mitch Williams away, all but proclaiming they couldn't ever put him in a save situation again without triggering some Joe Carter PTSD.
Wouldn't be terribly surprising if something similar happened this winter, perhaps with Hoffman returning to a setup role in Philadelphia where he was excellent in 2023 and 2024.
Notably, Toronto does already have one of the highest payrolls for 2026 and will presumably try to re-sign Bo Bichette. But with George Springer, Daulton Varsho and Kevin Gausman all slated for free agency next winter, they might just go for broke with a payroll north of $300 million in 2026 and recalibrate spending heading into 2027.
If that's the case, Díaz could be in the cards.
4. Chicago Cubs
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Current Plan at Closer: Daniel Palencia and/or Andrew Kittredge
Postseason Potential: 22-1 World Series odds
Payroll Situation: $227M in 2025, current $171M estimate for 2026
Daniel Palencia was unexpectedly respectable at closer, tallying 22 saves with a 2.91 ERA after recording a 5.02 ERA across his first two seasons in the big leagues.
Andrew Kittredge also has some experience as a closer and quickly became Chicago's most reliable reliever after the trade deadline and should be back in 2026 on a $9 million club option.
With that tandem at their disposal, Chicago's desperation for a closer isn't nearly as high as some of the others on this list.
However, they most definitely need to add several bullpen arms this offseason with half a dozen relievers hitting free agency, and swinging big for a closer while designating Palencia and Kittredge for set-up roles might be the way they choose to go.
And, frankly, they might be fed up with settling for "good enough" at closer.
Since the beginning of 2018, the Cubs have had 10 different pitchers tally at least 10 saves for them, none more so than Craig Kimbrel's 38, and he was horrendous for the first two seasons of that three-year deal. Meanwhile, Edwin Díaz has racked up 201 saves during that same time, despite missing an entire season.
Trading for Ryan Pressly in January ended up being a huge bust, and a more drastic step could be necessary as they try to finish ahead of Milwaukee for a change.
For what it's worth, in 8.2 career innings pitched at Wrigley Field, Díaz has allowed one unearned run with 16 strikeouts.
3. Atlanta Braves
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Current Plan at Closer: Committee of Pierce Johnson, Dylan Lee, Tyler Kinley, Aaron Bummer and Joe Jiménez
Postseason Potential: 16-1 World Series odds
Payroll Situation: $238M in 2025, current $185M estimate for 2026
The budget part is what makes this one questionable.
Yes, Raisel Iglesias and Marcell Ozuna are out of the picture, taking their combined $32 million in 2025 salary with them into free agency. However, that money has basically already been spent, with Spencer Strider ($4M in 2025, $20M in 2026) and Reynaldo López ($8M in 2025, $14M in 2026) getting significant pay bumps. They also need to figure out the plan at shortstop after Ha-Seong Kim declined his $16M player option.
But if any team is going to be a little extra motivated to invest in Edwin Díaz just so they never have to face him again, surely it's the Atlanta Braves.
Over the past five years, he has a cumulative line of 25.0 IP, 11 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 37 K with 14 saves against Atlanta. The only time they managed to do any damage against him was in the first game of that stand-alone double-header at the end of the 2024 season, and he still ended up getting the win in extra innings to clinch New York's spot in the postseason.
And the Braves do need a closer if they're serious about bouncing back from their wildly disappointing campaign to contend again in 2026.
Kinley, Johnson and Jiménez all have some ninth inning experience, but they each have fewer career saves than the 29 Iglesias tallied for them this season.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
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Current Plan at Closer: Tanner Scott
Postseason Potential: +370 World Series odds
Payroll Situation: $585M in 2025, current $315M estimate for 2026
The Dodgers are the only team that already has an estimated 2026 payroll north of the $244M competitive balance tax threshold, and by a considerable margin of more than $44M.
If they care in the slightest, though, that certainly would be a new development.
In pursuit of a three-peat, you just know they're going to make at least one big splash, probably several of them.
And if they had to pick just one issue to address, it's probably closer/bullpen, right?
They just gave Tanner Scott $72M last winter, but what he gave them was a 4.74 ERA and the most blown saves (10) in all of baseball. Moreover, they won the World Series without even having him on the postseason roster due to a "lower body abscess procedure."
Even if they're relatively comfortable with keeping Scott in a high-leverage role, they need to revamp the right-handed portion of the bullpen.
Kirby Yates, Ben Casparius, Blake Treinen and Luis García made the most relief appearances by right-handed Dodgers in 2025, posting a combined 5.02 ERA and negative-1.6 bWAR in 172 innings of work. They do hope to have a bunch of right-handers returning from injury in 2026, including Michael Grove and Brusdar Graterol. When you're the Dodgers, though, why not just throw a whole bunch of money at the problem instead?
1. New York Mets
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Current Plan at Closer: A.J. Minter? Convert Clay Holmes back to a closer?
Postseason Potential: 15-1 World Series odds
Payroll Situation: $427M in 2025, current $265M estimate for 2026
Needless to say, the Mets weren't exactly hoping that Díaz would exercise his opt-out clause, as the options for replacing him can be best summed up with the Michael Scott grimacing gif.
Case in point: Minter is probably Plan A among arms already on the roster, and he missed the majority of this past season with a lat injury and has never been a full-time closer in his career. So, whether it's Díaz or a more "budget-friendly" option, either signing or trading for a more experienced closer is almost a necessity.
The big question is: How much of a priority is it for them?
Pairing an elite closer with one of the more potent offenses in the league wasn't enough to get them into the playoffs this year. Will they take a "lather, rinse, repeat" approach by resigning both Díaz and Pete Alonso? Or will they cut back their spending on a closer who will only pitch 60-70 innings in a season in the name of drastically improving the starting rotation arms that ought to pitch upwards of 200 innings apiece per year?
The Mets' average year-end tax payroll over the past three seasons has been just a tad shy of $450 million, and it's hard to imagine they're going to pump the brakes one year after handing Juan Soto $765 million. Even so, they probably need to choose between Díaz and Alonso, if they can even justify re-signing either one when the rotation is so clearly their biggest need.
Though the Mets almost have to be considered the odds-on favorite here, it's far from a sure thing he'll be back with them in 2026.
