Educated Guesses On MLB Free Agency 2025 Early Signings
Major League Baseball's free-agent market doesn't necessarily have to move with a sense of urgency. In fact, it often doesn't.
It's become common for even the best free agents to languish on the market deep into the winter, with some not even signing until the spring. This was notably the case with Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman just last offseason.
Yet with the proper opening of the free-agent market finally happening on Thursday, it's worth asking: Which free agents might sign early?
By "early," we mean before November gives way to December. And all we're really doing is taking educated guesses based on players' own histories and what the market could look like.
We have eight players to get to, and they're arranged in alphabetical order.
1B Pete Alonso
1 of 8
Age: 30
2025 Team: New York Mets
2025 Stats: 162 G, 709 PA, 38 HR, 1 SB, .272 AVG, .349 OBP, .524 SLG
Why He Should Sign Soon
We knew as far back as September that Pete Alonso was planning on declining his $24 million player option for 2026, and now we know what kind of deal he wants.
According to Mike Puma of the New York Post, the slugging first baseman will be seeking at least a seven-year contract this winter. If so, it would seem that Alonso and his agent, Scott Boras, haven't fully moved on from the $200 million dream they reportedly shared in 2024.
Alonso should have a better chance of landing the mega-deal he covets after settling for a two-year, $54 million deal to return to the Mets in February. He's coming off a much better season this time, notably by way of an 83-point boost in OPS. He also isn't eligible for a qualifying offer.
Even so, Alonso and Boras got burned by holding out for as long as they did last offseason, and they won't exactly have this year's market cornered. Other slugging options include Kyle Schwarber, Munetaka Murakami and Eugenio Suárez, while Josh Naylor is arguably the better option at first base.
Rather than wait for others to do it, the better play for Alonso and Boras is to move quickly to set the market themselves.
Ideal Landing Spot: New York Mets
This partnership has been going for seven years, and there's no good reason for it to stop now. The Mets still need Alonso's right-handed power at first base, and the team can add roughly $100 million in average salary and still not trigger the 2026 luxury tax.
Prediction: Re-signs with Mets on 6-year, $150 million contract
OF/1B Cody Bellinger
2 of 8
Age: 30
2025 Team: New York Yankees
2025 Stats: 152 G, 656 PA, 29 HR, 13 SB, .272 AVG, .334 OBP, .480 SLG
Why He Should Sign Soon
Just as Pete Alonso was always a slam-dunk to opt out of his deal, Cody Bellinger apparently made his decision to do the same in October.
Bellinger has a strong hand to play after the year he just had. Even if it was far from his best season overall, his 29 home runs and his 5.0 rWAR marked his best returns in those two departments since his MVP-winning turn with the Dodgers in 2019.
And even if Bellinger is 30, he's a young 30. This past year was actually his age-29 season, and he won't turn 31 until July 15 of next year.
Then again, does anyone remember when MLB Trade Rumors projected Bellinger for a 12-year deal the last time he was a free agent? That was a real thing that happened, and he only got a three-year, $80 million deal after lingering on the market into late February.
This alone should give Bellinger and Boras incentive to move quickly. Moreover, they really don't want to give front offices more time to scrutinize how he only had a .715 OPS away from Yankee Stadium this year.
Ideal Landing Spot: New York Yankees
Bellinger's old man famously played for the Yankees back in the day, and he looked like an ideal fit for the organization long before he actually went there and revived his career. It's not all because of Yankee Stadium, but the .909 OPS he had there this year does reflect how well his swing fits there.
Prediction: Re-signs with Yankees on 7-year, $175 million contract
3B Alex Bregman
3 of 8
Age: 31
2025 Team: Boston Red Sox
2025 Stats: 114 G, 495 PA, 18 HR, 1 SB, .273 AVG, .360 OBP, .462 SLG
Why He Should Sign Soon
Alex Bregman is another guy who didn't find a home in free agency until February, though he at least didn't have to settle as much as Alonso did.
Though Bregman didn't get the $200 million deal he and Boras reportedly sought, he still cleared nine figures and scored a $40 million average annual value in his three-year, $120 million pact with the Red Sox.
That he opted out anyway means he clearly thinks he can do better than the $80 million he had left on his deal. If one had to guess, one would say he and Boras will try to at least double that figure.
And yet, it's debatable as to whether Bregman has a stronger hand to play this time around. Though he isn't eligible for a qualifying offer and is coming off an All-Star season, he's also a year older and his 2025 season comes with a major red flag. After a hot start, he only had a .724 OPS after missing time with a quad injury.
As Bregman's market could otherwise get squeezed by Bo Bichette, Eugenio Suárez and Munetaka Murakami, another long stay in free agency probably isn't a good idea.
Ideal Landing Spot: Boston Red Sox
There are certainly other teams that could use Bregman, including the Detroit Tigers and Chicago Cubs. But given the impact he made both on the field and in the clubhouse, it's hard to fathom him actually leaving the Red Sox. Interest in a reunion should be very much mutual.
Prediction: Re-signs with Red Sox on 6-year, $150 million contract
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RHP Merrill Kelly
4 of 8
Age: 37
2025 Teams: Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers
2025 Stats: 32 GS, 184.0 IP, 157 H (23 HR), 167 K, 48 BB, 3.52 ERA
Why He Should Sign Soon
The Diamondbacks first took a chance on Merrill Kelly in 2018, signing him following his successful stint in the Korean Baseball Organization. Prior to that, he had never actually thrown a pitch in MLB.
It's fair to say both that chance and especially the extension Kelly signed in 2022 panned out. Save for an injury-shortened 2024 season, he's been one of the league's most consistent starters over the last four years.
As an example, Kelly was one of only 13 pitchers to toss over 180 innings with an ERA below 3.60 this season. He beat out Luis Castillo and Kevin Gausman, both of whom are on nine-figure deals, in the latter department.
Yet with Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen, Ranger Suárez, Lucas Giolito and quite a few others also looking for work, the starting pitching market is going to be awfully crowded this winter. And where Kelly is concerned, that might not even be his biggest problem.
As he just turned 37 in October, Kelly is at that age where he can't expect more than a two- or three-year deal. If he waits too long, even one of those might not materialize.
Ideal Landing Spot: Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks need pitching, and they obviously have more familiarity with Kelly than any other team. He's also an Arizona man, as he played high school ball in Scottsdale and college ball in Prescott and Tempe long before he made his way to Phoenix to pitch for the D-backs.
Prediction: Signs with Diamondbacks on 2-year, $28 million contract
2B/DH Jorge Polanco
5 of 8
Age: 32
2025 Team: Seattle Mariners
2025 Stats: 138 G, 524 PA, 26 HR, 6 SB, .265 AVG, .326 OBP, .495 SLG
Why He Should Sign Soon
Nobody in Seattle was happy when the Mariners re-signed Jorge Polanco on a one-year, $7.8 million deal last winter, but it ended up being one of the best moves the team has made in a long time.
Polanco altered his swing after having offseason knee surgery, and it helped clear the way to his best season since his 33-homer outburst in 2021. He posted a career-best 134 OPS and tacked on 30 doubles to go with his 26 homers.
Polanco was also the most clutch hitter in MLB during the regular season, and that quality ultimately came through in the postseason. He homered twice off Tarik Skubal and at one point had game-winning RBI in three straight games.
Yet even if Polanco faced a no-brainer in turning down his $6 million player option for 2026, he can't be too cocky that a major payday will find him if he waits long enough.
Next year will be his age-32 season, and teams know all too well that he has a history of injuries and inconsistent performances, not to mention a PED suspension. He would do well to capitalize on his helium while he still has some.
Ideal Landing Spot: Seattle Mariners
Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times has labeled Polanco as the most likely of the Mariners' free agents to re-sign, and it doesn't seem like a long shot. He fits well in Seattle, and the competition to keep him doesn't figure to be as stiff as it will be for Josh Naylor, who is also a priority for the Mariners.
Prediction: Re-signs with Mariners on 2-year, $24 million contract
3B Eugenio Suárez
6 of 8
Age: 34
2025 Team: Seattle Mariners
2025 Stats: 159 G, 657 PA, 49 HR, 4 SB, .228 AVG, .298 OBP, .526 SLG
Why He Should Sign Soon
The Mariners never should have traded Eugenio Suárez in 2023, and he made sure they regretted it right up until they brought him back this July.
This year marked the second time that Suárez has hit as many as 49 home runs in a season, and they tended to come in bunches. He had seven multi-homer games, including a historic four-homer game on April 26. He also had three months in which he cleared 10 home runs.
And yet, it's not as if Suárez's flaws are obscure.
He's never been much of a defender, and this year was the second time he has failed to reach a .300 OBP in a full season. That largely traces back to his propensity for swinging and missing, as he typically ranks in the bottom 10 percent of all hitters in strikeout percentage.
Age is another problem for Suárez, as nobody aged 34 or older has hit 40 homers in a season since Nelson Cruz in 2019. As none of this is going to be lost on prospective suitors, holding out in hopes of a better deal would be unwise.
Ideal Landing Spot: Los Angeles Angels
It was largely because of the home run ball that the Angels were more competitive than expected this season. They might as well double down, and Suárez would fit nicely at the hole at third base that probably won't be filled by Anthony Rendon ever again.
Prediction: Signs with Angels for 2 years, $44 million
RHP Robert Suarez
7 of 8
Age: 34
2025 Teams: San Diego Padres
2025 Stats: 70 G, 69.2 IP, 47 H (6 HR), 75 K, 16 BB, 2.97 ERA
Why He Should Sign Soon
It was after an out-of-nowhere breakout that the Padres signed Robert Suarez to a five-year contract in 2022. And after a disappointing 2023 season, he more than lived up to it in 2024 and 2025.
Hence why it was a no-brainer for him to decline the two-year, $16 million player option he held upon the conclusion of this season. He figures to be in enough demand to potentially command that much money just as the average annual value in a multi-year deal.
Even so, some teams might be spooked by the fact that Suarez will turn 35 years old on March 1, 2026. He's also just two years removed from an injury scare, as he missed most of 2023 because of inflammation in his elbow.
And, call it a hunch, but he probably doesn't wait to sign until after Edwin Díaz has already found a home as a free agent.
Díaz likewise opted out of his contract with the New York Mets, instantly making him the top reliever on the free-agent market. He could end up with another nine-figure deal, which would cut off Suarez's avenue to the best money he can hope for.
Ideal Landing Spot: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers won the World Series very much in spite of their bullpen, and it won't have Roki Sasaki around to redeem it next year. They therefore figure to be in the market for a top-tier closer, and signing Suarez would be a double whammy of filling that need and taking a major weapon away from their top NL West rival.
Prediction: Signs with Dodgers on 4-year, $64 million contract
RHP Devin Williams
8 of 8
Age: 31
2025 Team: New York Yankees
2025 Stats: 67 G, 62.0 IP, 45 H (5 HR), 90 K, 25 BB, 4.79 ERA
Why He Should Sign Soon
At the outset of the 2025 season, one could have imagined Devin Williams becoming only the second reliever to ever sign a nine-figure deal.
He had the creds, after all. He came out of nowhere to win the NL Rookie of the Year in 2020, and then built on it in a four-year run with the Milwaukee Brewers in which he was a two-time All-Star. All told, he posted a 1.70 ERA in those five seasons.
But then the 2025 season happened, and unfortunately went the way it did for Williams. Even if it was not as bad as it seemed, it's hard to explain away things like a 5.3 mph increase in average exit velocity.
After a year like this, chances are that Williams will only be in the market for a one-year deal. He indeed should only want a one-year deal, as reestablishing value in 2026 and then becoming a free agent again should be the goal.
As such, there isn't much point in him waiting out the market. And as time goes on, the values attached to even one-year offers are only likely to decrease.
Ideal Landing Spot: Detroit Tigers
As Williams still struck out 34.7 percent of the batters he faced this year, getting swings and misses was clearly an area where he still excelled. The Tigers badly need someone like that in their bullpen, which finished last in the American League in strikeout rate this year.
Prediction: Signs with Tigers on 1-year, $10 million contract
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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