Predicting MLB Teams' Qualifying Offers and If Players Reject or Accept
A slew of the most notable free agents this offseason won't be eligible to be saddled with the qualifying offer.
Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman were given qualifying offers last season, and you can only have one in your career. Cody Bellinger received one qualifying offer two seasons ago.
You also can't be extended a qualifying offer if you didn't spend the entire season with your most recent team. That means Josh Naylor, Harrison Bader, Ryan O'Hearn and Eugenio Suárez are also ineligible.
However, most of the other potential free agents this offseason will be eligible to have a qualifying offer extended to them. What that means is those players will be given a one-year, $22.025 million offer from their most recent employer. If they accept it, then they play on that deal. Most, though, will decline it and test free agency. If they sign with a new team, that club must surrender 2026 draft-pick compensation. Their former employer will receive a compensatory pick.
With all that acknowledged, here's a look at the top qualifying offer candidates this offseason, and how things will play out for them regarding this procedural matter.
Kyle Tucker
1 of 14
Will Cubs Extend Qualifying Offer? Yes
Will Tucker Accept Qualifying Offer? No
It's a slam dunk both that the Cubs will extend a qualifying offer to Tucker and that the Excel Sports Management client will decline it.
Hitting .266 with 22 home runs, 73 RBI and an .841 OPS might not have been how Tucker envisioned his contract year. There's context, though, as he suffered a hairline fracture in his right hand in early June and played through it the rest of the year, which certainly affected his production.
Even still, Tucker is hitting the free-agent market ahead of his age-29 season, and he's one of the most complete outfielders in baseball when healthy. He could well get a 10-year deal this offseason.
The Cubs didn't exceed the luxury-tax threshold in 2025, so if Tucker leaves in free agency after declining the QO, Chicago would be in line to recoup a pick between "CBR-B and the start of the third round," per MLB Trade Rumors' Mark Polishuk.
Lucas Giolito
2 of 14
Will Red Sox Extend Qualifying Offer? No
For Giolito to even be in position to receive a qualifying offer, either he or the Red Sox would have to decline their half of a $19 million mutual option for 2026. Considering he'll get a $1.5 million buyout if he declines it, he will probably go that route.
He had a nice rebound campaign in 2025, going 10-4 with a 3.41 ERA across 145 innings. The problem is he missed all of 2024 after having an internal brace inserted to repair his right elbow. He also was unavailable for the postseason in 2025 after his elbow flared up.
So there's a real chance that if Giolito was offered the qualifying offer, he would take the $22.025 million (on top of the $1.5 million he would be getting for the declined option).
The Red Sox would probably like to have Giolito, 31, back in their rotation next season. But they could allocate over $22 million in much better ways.
Kyle Schwarber
3 of 14
Will Phillies Extend Qualifying Offer? Yes
Will Schwarber Accept Qualifying Offer? No
Kyle Schwarber is coming off of a career year, having led the NL with 56 home runs and all of baseball with 132 runs driven in. The likely NL MVP runner-up will receive and decline a qualifying offer from the Phillies.
From there, the Phillies still seem to be the most likely team to sign Schwarber, as both managing partner John Middleton and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski have consistently stated how much they wanted to retain the three-time All-Star.
But even as a DH entering his age-33 season, Schwarber will have plenty of other suitors. The Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs—two of his former employers—could seek a reunion.
We'll see if the Cincinnati Reds—the team that the Middletown, Ohio native grew up rooting for—will be willing to make this type of expenditure, but they make sense as well.
In the event that the Phillies lost Schwarber in free agency, they would get back just a selection after the fourth round in the 2026 draft because they were luxury-tax payers this past season.
Dylan Cease
4 of 14
Will Padres Extend Qualifying Offer? Yes
Will Cease Accept Qualifying Offer? No
It was not an ideal contract year for Dylan Cease, who posted a 4.55 ERA across 32 starts for the Padres. Still, it's a no-brainer for them to give Cease, who will turn 30 in December, a qualifying offer.
Not only does he have a pair of top-four Cy Young Award finishes in his career (2022 and 2024), but there are other metrics that suggest he was better than his ERA would lead you to believe in 2025.
Both his 3.46 expected ERA and 3.56 FIP are significantly better than his bloated ERA. And in a time when the sport is chasing swing-and-miss stuff, Cease does that about as well as any starter, as he led baseball with a 11.5 K/9 this past year.
This offseason may not be Cease's biggest payday. He might need to sign a long-term deal with an early opt out and return to the market in a year or two if he's coming off of a better year. There's no doubt he should decline the qualifying offer, though.
Bo Bichette
5 of 14
Will Blue Jays Extend Qualifying Offer? Yes
Will Bichette Accept Qualifying Offer? No
A left knee sprain cost Bo Bichette much of September—and the postseason—but he was having a great contract year prior to that, having hit .311 with 181 hits and an .840 OPS across 582 at-bats.
His defensive metrics at shortstop were a disaster, as he posted minus-12 defensive runs saved and minus-13 outs above average this past season. His long-term future will likely be at second base, but like former teammate Marcus Semien, he has a good enough bat to justify a major expenditure even if he's playing second base from the get-go.
Surely after reaching the World Series, the Blue Jays will make an effort to keep Bichette north of the border. He will play next season at 28, though, so there's going to be plenty of other possibilities for the Vayner Sports client.
The Blue Jays were a competitive balance tax payer this year, so they would only get back a pick after the fourth round in 2026 if Bichette left in free agency after turning down the QO.
Framber Valdez
6 of 14
Will Astros Extend Qualifying Offer? Yes
Will Valdez Accept Qualifying Offer? No
Framber Valdez is arguably the top available starting pitcher this offseason, and considering he posted a 3.36 ERA over eight seasons with the Houston Astros and was an All-Star this past year, should be very coveted in free agency.
With that said, things got bizarre down the stretch for Valdez this past year. Not only did he post a 5.20 ERA in 12 starts after the All-Star Break, but he also seemingly crossed up catcher Cesar Salazar on purpose in September:
Considering the Astros have let pitchers such as Gerrit Cole, Charlie Morton, and Justin Verlander leave in free agency over the last decade, it seems unlikely Valdez will return to Houston in 2026.
Trent Grisham
7 of 14
Will Yankees Extend Qualifying Offer? Yes
Will Grisham Accept Qualifying Offer? No
A year ago, it would have been unthinkable to offer Trent Grisham $22.025 million for a season. But after how well he performed in 2025, the New York Yankees will likely extend the qualifying offer, and he'll probably decline it.
After posting a .675 OPS in his first season in pinstripes, Grisham came back with a vengeance in 2025, hitting 34 home runs, driving in 74 runs, drawing 82 walks and posting an .811 OPS in a career year.
What's interesting is that while Grisham has generally been viewed as a strong defender in center field, he posted minus-11 defensive runs saved and minus-2 outs above average in 2025. He is much more valuable as a center fielder than a corner outfielder, so potential suitors will need to decide whether he just had a down year or this is a sign of things to come for the 28-year-old.
Teams are so desperate for help in center field that Grisham will do well in free agency. He's not going to get $22 million in 2026, but he'll easily top that amount over a multi-year deal.
The Yankees, as a team that exceeded the luxury-tax threshold, would only get back a selection after the fourth round in the 2026 draft if Grisham declines the QO and signs with a different club.
Michael King
8 of 14
Will Padres Extend Qualifying Offer? Yes
Will King Accept Qualifying Offer? No
Like with teammate Cease, it wasn't an ideal contract year for Michael King. Granted, he pitched to a 3.44 ERA, but that came over just 15 starts because of left knee and right shoulder inflammation.
Obviously, King would have a better free-agent case if he hit the open market after posting a 2.95 ERA across 173.2 innings pitched in 2024.
Nonetheless, he has had success both as a starter and a reliever, and contending teams looking for a No. 2 or No. 3 starter would be interested. So, while the Padres will extend a qualifying offer to him, King won't be inclined to accept it, even after an injury-riddled contract year.
The Padres are another team that paid the competitive balance tax in 2025, so if King left in free agency, all A.J. Preller and company would get back would be a pick after the fourth round of the 2026 draft.
Ranger Suárez
9 of 14
Will Phillies Extend Qualifying Offer? Yes
Will Suárez Accept Qualifying Offer? No
There's a ton to like about Ranger Suárez, who thrived as both a starter and a reliever during parts of eight seasons with the Phillies. He was tremendous over a career-high 157.1 innings this past year, posting a 3.20 ERA and 17 quality starts.
There are also some things to be concerned about with Suárez, though. He's landed on the injured list with a back-related ailment in three of the last four seasons. His average fastball velocity also has dipped from 93.4 mph in 2023 to 91.3 mph in 2025.
Even with the concerns around Suárez, the Scott Boras client should land a nice deal this offseason. He just might have to be patient, as he feels like someone whose market might not reach a resolution until around spring training.
Devin Williams
10 of 14
Will Yankees Extend Qualifying Offer? No
Entering 2025, Devin Williams seemed like a slam-dunk candidate to receive the qualifying offer, having pitched to a minuscule 1.83 ERA in parts of six seasons at the back of the Milwaukee Brewers' bullpen.
Unfortunately for Williams, he struggled in what will prove to be his lone season with the Yankees, posting a 4.79 ERA over 67 games. If Brian Cashman and the club offered Williams $22.025 million for 2026, he'd sign it before you could finish explaining the offer.
The good news for the former NL Rookie of the Year is that he won't be saddled with a qualifying offer, which would have suppressed interest on the free-agent market.
Now, the 31-year-old will likely land a one-year rebound deal worth at least $10 million and get to reestablish himself in 2026.
Zac Gallen
11 of 14
Will Diamondbacks Extend Qualifying Offer? Yes
Will Gallen Accept Qualifying Offer? No
Zac Gallen had a nightmarish contract year for the Arizona Diamondbacks, posting a 4.83 ERA and 4.51 FIP over 33 starts. However, the fact that the Snakes didn't trade him at the trade deadline signaled they planned to extend a QO to the former All-Star.
In fact, without much in the way of certainty in their starting rotation next season, the Diamondbacks probably would be content to pay Gallen $22.025 million if he accepts the QO. And there's definitely a shot he will just do that and try to get to the open market without being inhibited next winter.
The trend in recent years, though, has been more towards taking a multi-year deal that guarantees you more total money than you would get if you accepted the QO, while also having an opt-out after the first year or two.
Our bet is the 30-year-old will decline the qualifying offer and sign a multi-year deal with an early opt-out. The Diamondbacks still make the most sense for him in 2026.
Brandon Woodruff
12 of 14
Will Brewers Extend Qualifying Offer? No
With a 7-2 record and 3.20 ERA over 12 starts, Brandon Woodruff was pitching his way towards being a qualifying offer candidate before a right lat strain ended his season in September.
When coupled with the fact that he missed nearly two years following shoulder surgery before those outings, Woodruff is just too much of a risk for the small-budget Brewers to extend a qualifying offer to. Surely, he would accept the QO at this point.
A two-time All-Star, Woodruff has spent his entire eight-year career in Milwaukee to this point. But there will be suitors for the 32-year-old in free agency, particularly if teams believe his health is in a good place.
Robert Suarez
13 of 14
Will Padres Extend Qualifying Offer? No
Robert Suarez did lead the senior circuit with 40 saves this past season, but with a 2.97 ERA and 2.88, he was very good, but perhaps not so dominant as the save total would lead you to think.
Suarez is going to turn 35 next March, and while he's been an All-Star in each of the last two years, he would probably take the $22.025 million qualifying offer. The Padres would probably like to keep him, but with Adrián Morejón, Mason Miller and Jason Adam (who won't be ready for Opening Day most likely) under contract for 2026, San Diego probably will let Suarez walk.
Without a QO attached to him, Suarez should be able to net a lucrative two-year deal as a free agent.
Edwin Díaz
14 of 14
Will Mets Extend Qualifying Offer? Yes
Will Díaz Accept Qualifying Offer? No
Edwin Díaz was again dominant in 2025, posting a 1.63 ERA and recording 28 saves over 62 games for the New York Mets this past year. He's going to opt out of the final two seasons of his five-year, $102 million deal this offseason.
Díaz did get close to free agency after his legendary 2022 season, but the Mets re-signed him before he could get to free agency or they even had to make a decision on a qualifying offer. So, he is eligible for the QO, and he will receive and decline one this offseason.
The 31-year-old has had three great seasons in his nine-year MLB career. He doesn't have the same year-to-year consistency as some of the greatest relievers in MLB history, but at his best, he's a Hall of Fame-level reliever.
Díaz's entrance also makes him one of the few relievers in MLB history who actually brings fans out to the park, which shouldn't be discounted when trying to determine his value.
