Making Sense of the Battle in the Formula 1 Midfield
As the 2015 Formula One season nears the halfway point, Mercedes are once again running away with the constructors' championship. The battle in the midfield, on the other hand, couldn't be much closer.
Just 20 points separate Force India in fifth place from Toro Rosso in eighth—and even fourth-placed Red Bull are just 24 points clear of the trailing pack.
It may not seem like it makes much difference whether a team finishes sixth or eighth (what was it Ricky Bobby's dad told him?), but the financial ramifications are massive. Those two spots in the constructors' standings could be worth $10 million.
So, who will nab those places behind the seemingly locked-in top three of Mercedes, Ferrari and Williams? (And yes, that means Red Bull's fourth place is nowhere near secure.)
| Mercedes | 371 |
| Ferrari | 211 |
| Williams | 151 |
| Red Bull | 63 |
| Force India | 39 |
| Lotus | 29 |
| Sauber | 21 |
| Toro Rosso | 19 |
| McLaren | 5 |
| Manor | 0 |
Speaking of Red Bull, as recently as the end of the 2014 season, it would have been preposterous to consider them part of the F1 midfield. The team from Milton Keynes finished (a distant) second to Mercedes last year, following four-straight championship seasons. The last time Red Bull were this low in the standings this late in the season was 2008, when they ultimately finished seventh.
The new F1 reality, though, may be that Red Bull are lucky to be as high as they are. Engines rule the day under the new regulations introduced last year, and four of the top six teams are powered by Mercedes. Red Bull, as team principal Christian Horner would love to tell you, are struggling along with an uncompetitive, unreliable Renault engine.
But it's not all bad news, at least as long as you're not a Red Bull fan or employee. The closeness of the midfield teams has led to plenty of exciting racing, even while Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg sprint away at the front.
Here is an alternate view of the constructors' standings, breaking the season so far into thirds:
| Red Bull | 13 | 39 | 11 |
| Force India | 7 | 10 | 22 |
| Lotus | 6 | 10 | 13 |
| Sauber | 19 | 2 | 0 |
| Toro Rosso | 12 | 3 | 4 |
| McLaren | 0 | 4 | 1 |
Red Bull may be holding on to fourth place, but their lead is largely due to their performance at Monaco, an anachronism of a track, where they scored 22 points. In the season's other eight races, they have a total of 41 points.
The next grand prix is at the Hungaroring, a track often compared to Monaco, which should once again play to the strength of the Red Bull chassis—Daniel Ricciardo won for the team there last year.
But then three of the next four races are at the high-speed Spa, Monza and Suzuka circuits. By the time the chequered flag waves in Japan, Mercedes-powered Force India and Lotus could be bearing down on the Bulls.
Both teams have improved their performances as the season has progressed, though Force India appear in the best position of the two going forward.
After a strong performance in Austria, the team finally introduced an upgraded car for the British Grand Prix, marking the third-straight race the team from Silverstone has outscored Red Bull. With Nico Hulkenberg still riding the high from his Le Mans win, Force India will be dangerous in the second half of the season.
Lotus, and particularly Pastor Maldonado, have also impressed lately, aside from a first-corner accident that claimed both cars at the British Grand Prix. In fact, Maldonado's seventh places in Canada and Austria marked just the second time in his career that he has scored points in consecutive races.
Meanwhile, Sauber and Toro Rosso started the season with strong performances but have struggled to maintain that form.
After the first point-less season in their history in 2014, Sauber surprised everyone with fifth- and eighth-place finishes at the season-opener in Australia. That performance, though, in a race where only 11 cars finished, perhaps raised expectations too high for the Swiss team.
Both cars were in the points again in China, but Sauber have scored just seven points since the 14 they took in Melbourne.
Similarly, Toro Rosso had an impressive early result—scoring 10 points for finishing seventh and eighth in Malaysia—but they have collected just seven points in the following seven races.
McLaren, at this point, are barely worth mentioning as part of the midfield battle. They have scored twice in the last four races but also have six retirements in that time.
Looking ahead, both Red Bull and Toro Rosso are in immediate danger of incurring grid penalties for exceeding the engine limit. This will also hurt their chances against Force India and Lotus.
Renault do have the most engine tokens remaining, per reporter Adam Cooper's blog, but not enough to close the gap to Mercedes and Ferrari.
Force India have never finished higher than sixth in the constructors' standings, but with Red Bull struggling, they have an opportunity for a breakthrough this year.
"After [Austria] we get the upgrade and that's hopefully when our season really kick-starts and we turn things around, so if all goes to plan after that, we can really challenge for fifth place and push in the second half of the season," Hulkenberg told Bleacher Report in Canada last month.
It's time to update that prediction—fourth place is within reach.
Also, don't be surprised if Toro Rosso finish the season ahead of Sauber. As noted, neither team has shown particularly well lately, but if it comes down to a development race, bet on the Red Bull-backed Toro Rosso.
It may not be glamorous or sexy to brag about a seventh-place finish, but the money at stake means the teams fighting for those positions will be pushing just as hard as those fighting for the championship. The only difference is that the fight is a lot closer than the one at the front.
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