Every MLB Contender's Most Likely Trade Deadline Deal

Can you feel the tension? It's palpable. 

With MLB's July 31 non-waiver trade deadline now just 10 days away, all would-be contenders are on the clock to make improvements for the stretch run to October. And modern times being what they are, the phrase "all would-be contenders" encompasses more than half the league. Hence, the tension.

Take the time to dig around on MLB Trade Rumors, and you'll get the gist that there are numerous players on each contender's wish list and, as such, dozens of different ways the dominoes could fall in the coming days. We're going to take our best guess on how they'll fall by trying to pinpoint the one deal each included franchise is most likely to make.

We'll tackle each of the 18 realistic contenders in MLB, starting with the worst record of the bunch and slowly making our way to the top. Step into the box whenever you're ready.

Texas Rangers: Neal Cotts

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Record: 43-49

Wait, what? This can't be right. Aren't the Rangers supposed to be going hard after Cole Hamels?

Yes, they are. But I wouldn't count on that—or any other big move, really.

Though Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports says the Rangers are still in on Hamels, T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com has a recent report that characterizes a Hamels-to-Rangers deal as unlikely. And given where the Rangers are now, that's easy to believe.

The Rangers are still technically in the AL playoff race, but they're fading fast with 14 losses in their last 20 games. They have the prospects and the cash to pull off a deal for Hamels, but at this point they might as well save their farmhands and wait to use their cash on the coming offseason's uber-rich pitching market.

Instead, expect the Rangers to go small. Relief help is their most obvious need—Texas' 4.46 bullpen ERA is dead-last in the AL—and general manager Jon Daniels made it clear to Sullivan that he's aware of this.

To this end, the idea that resonates the most is Rosenthal's proposal of a reunion with Brewers left-hander Neal Cotts. He could deepen Texas' pen and make it easier for the team to preserve the starters it controls through next season. And when the year is done, it's not hard to imagine the Rangers re-upping with the impending free agent, who notably re-established his career in Texas in 2013 and 2014.

Cleveland Indians: Carlos Gomez

Danny Moloshok/Associated Press

Record: 44-47

This is an area where it's tough to see what the future holds. The Indians' corner of the rumor mill has been awfully quiet, so Ken Rosenthal's notion that they'll ultimately stand pat could wind up being true.

If the Indians do make a move, though, Rosenthal noted it could be for a hitter. For lack of a better idea, that's a cue for me to stick to my guns on a recent prediction: Carlos Gomez will soon head to Cleveland.

Rather than a wild guess, call it informed speculation. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports recently reported that the Brewers are prepared to move Gomez, and there might be no better fit for him than Cleveland.

For starters, there's the reality that the Indians farm system features a couple of talented outfielders who could appeal to the Brewers. Just as important, there's the fact that the Indians badly need an upgrade over Michael Bourn in center field, who is failing them on both offense and, per the metrics, on defense. With his .768 OPS and still strong glove, Gomez could solve both those problems.

The result could be the Indians making a charge at one of the AL's two wild-card spots. If not, they would be able to look forward to having Gomez for a run at the AL Central title in 2016.

Tampa Bay Rays: None

Todd Kirkland/Associated Press

Rays manager Kevin Cash

Record: 47-48

Record scratch. None?! Is that even allowed?

Apparently, says the guy writing this thing. And he'll tell you why.

As much or more than any other team, the Rays are lying low on the rumor mill. Rumors concerning them have been few and far between, and there are good reasons for that.

One is the notion offered by president of baseball operations Matthew Silverman that the Rays don't need to deal to improve, as he recently told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times: "If we're a healthy team, there isn't a glaring need for us at the deadline."

Silverman could actually be right about that. The Rays already have really good pitching and are due for an offensive boost when Desmond Jennings (knee) and Steven Souza Jr. (finger) come off the disabled list in the near future. When all the pieces are together, the team will have enough for a strong run.

Another issue is that the Rays will have few openings for additional bats when their lineup is finally healthy. Another still is that they aren't loaded with expendable prospects or expendable cash. 

As such, the most likely outcome is the Rays will let the deadline pass and try to make a run in the final two months with what they have. That's my cop-out, anyway, and I'm sticking to it.

Toronto Blue Jays: Jonathan Papelbon

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Record: 47-47

The Blue Jays are in contention because their offense can clobber baseballs. They're struggling to stay there, though, because their pitching staff isn't so good at preventing opponents from doing the same.

That's why the Jays have been consistently linked to pitchers. And if Joel Sherman of the New York Post is to be believed, the Jays are especially adamant on adding a starter. On that front, they've been linked to Cole Hamels, Johnny Cueto, per SI.com, Jeff Samardzija, per Doug Harrison of CBC Sports, and other usual suspects.

But it also sounds like the Jays are conflicted. General manager Alex Anthopoulos told SN 590 The Fan (via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca) that rentals make up "the last aisle that I'd want to shop in." That makes sense given where the Jays are in the standings. And it likely means they won't outbid others for the top rentals.

This leaves Hamels as a possibility but maybe only from the Jays' end. According to Jon Heyman, the Phillies ace is not interested in playing in Toronto and can use his no-trade clause to make sure it doesn't happen.

So, the signs point to the Jays being forced to back off starting pitching and focus on the next best thing: relief pitching. They need that too, and the most obvious target on their radar is Jonathan Papelbon. Toronto has been consistently linked to him, and Papelbon admitted at the All-Star Game that he and the Jays are "a good fit."

Papelbon would be an upgrade for a Toronto bullpen that needs one, and not just for this year. The Blue Jays could have him for 2016 as well, and a rotation that will feature a healthy Marcus Stroman and more experienced versions of Aaron Sanchez and Daniel Norris could send plenty of saves his way.

Detroit Tigers: Scott Kazmir

Ben Margot/Associated Press

Record: 46-46

The Tigers have made the fall from consistently good to wildly mediocre in 2015, and that has a lot to do with the downfall of their starting pitching staff. Especially in recent days, it's been David Price and a whole lot of NOPE NOPE NOPE.

It's therefore no wonder that the Tigers' rumor mill has been mainly concentrated on starting pitchers, with Jon Heyman listing the top rental targets as possibilities: Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, Scott Kazmir, Mike Leake and so on.

You can count out the Tigers on Cueto and Samardzija. They'd look awesome next to Price, but it's going to take some talented prospects to acquire either of them. Alas, the Tigers are are short on those.

But Kazmir? He's a real possibility.

Kazmir is having an awesome season with a 2.38 ERA in 18 starts, which would seem to make him too valuable for Detroit. But his value has been complicated by a pair of health scares this season, and then there's the reality that he's making $13 million. Rather than teams with lots of prospects, he should appeal more to clubs with money and a willingness to take a chance.

The Tigers fit that bill. And though they don't have much to offer in the way of prospects, that A's general manager Billy Beane seems to care little about prospect rankings bodes well for Detroit's chances to make a deal.

Baltimore Orioles: Mike Leake

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Record: 46-45

If you've been paying attention, you'll know that the Orioles have recently been connected to much bigger names than this one.

As Ken Rosenthal noted, word is that the Orioles are interested in a trio of slugging outfielders: Carlos Gomez, Justin Upton and Jay Bruce. And given their obvious need for an impact bat in left field, we can likely take it for granted that this interest is sincere.

Sincere though it may be, however, it's hard to see it leading anywhere. 

As Rosenthal also noted, Baltimore's farm system wasn't good to begin with and now features two injured mega-prospects in Dylan Bundy (shoulder) and Hunter Harvey (elbow). That limits their capacity to deal for an impact bat, and then there's the reality that they're short on expendable parts at the major league level.

So instead, look for the O's to address their other need: starting pitching. And though they're supposedly casting a wide net, it's Mike Leake who stands out as the most attainable option.

Jon Heyman has reported that the O's are among the teams with interest in Leake, which makes sense on several levels. They can afford the impending free agent from both a prospect and payroll standpoint, and there's also how Leake's ground-ball style would mesh with Baltimore's infield defense.

New York Mets: Ben Zobrist

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Record: 48-45

There's no ambiguity over what the Mets need most at the trade deadline. With the National League's lowest run total, they badly need a bat. Like, badly as in badly.

To this end, Jon Heyman stirred things up when he reported that the Mets are "aiming high" with the likes of Justin Upton and Carlos Gomez on their radar. This was unexpected, but having the sluggers as trade targets isn't unrealistic for the Mets. They have the goods to aim for them and just enough incentive to make it happen.

But while those are possible deals the Mets could make, neither is the most likely.

That honor belongs to Ben Zobrist. The Mets have been repeatedly linked to the veteran utilityman in recent weeks, with the loudest rumor being Joel Sherman's report that New York wants Zobrist so much it would be willing to overpay to get him.

And that's actually understandable. The Mets are dealing with injuries to third baseman David Wright (back) and left fielder Michael Cuddyer (knee) and are cursed with a generally unproductive middle infield. They thus need a solid bat who can help at all those positions. Zobrist is one of the only ones out there who can.

The downside is that the 34-year-old Zobrist is a rental. But since the Mets could probably get him without sacrificing any of their top prospects, they'd be paying a fair price for just what the doctor ordered for the stretch run.

San Francisco Giants: Cameron Maybin

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Record: 49-44

As far as team needs go, what the Giants need to do at the trade deadline is a humdinger of a head-scratcher.

When Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle tackled the question in late June, he identified the Giants' bench, outfield and rotation as areas in need of upgrades. But with Matt Cain, Jake Peavy and Hunter Pence all healthy and Nori Aoki (leg) nearing his return as well, it looks like the Giants don't need to force anything with their outfield or rotation.

That leaves depth as the Giants' lone issue in need of addressing.

On that front, the sexy name they've been linked to is Ben Zobrist, most recently by Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. But since Giants GM Bobby Evans recently told John Shea of the Chronicle that the team doesn't have space for another everyday guy, let's talk about Cameron Maybin instead.

ESPN.com's Buster Olney has reported that the Giants have reached out to the Braves about Maybin, and it's not hard to read their intentions. He's at least an upgrade over Justin Maxwell as a righty-hitting fourth outfielder. And given the way everyday center fielder Angel Pagan has been playing over the last two months, Maybin could also work as a replacement there.

Chicago Cubs: James Shields

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

Record: 49-42

More than halfway through the season, it sure looks like the Cubs' rebuild is well and truly over. They're for real, and they're a danger to become even more so at the deadline.

As for how they could do that, they have the resources to acquire either an impact bat to help their sputtering offense or an impact arm to round out their better-than-you-think rotation. And from the sound of things, it's the latter that's more likely.

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Cubs are among the teams that are interested in Cole Hamels. But Rosenthal also opined recently that the Cubs are a match for one of San Diego's three controllable pitchers: Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner and James Shields.

It wouldn't be surprising to see the Cubs land any of those four names. But if we're going to bet the house on one, it has to be Shields.

In the background is the memory that Shields darn near signed with the Cubs over the winter. In the foreground is the reality that he'd be cheaper and arguably just as good an addition as Hamels would be, as he's not owed as much money and doesn't have Hamels' track record as a No. 1 starter.

The Cubs rotation is pretty good as is. If the team adds Shields to it, the unit would be more than good enough to lead the charge back to October.

Houston Astros: Tyson Ross

Lenny Ignelzi/Associated Press

Record: 51-43

The Astros have done well to get as far as they've gotten. But to get any further, they're going to need to upgrade their starting rotation.

And as far as that goes, they may have to settle for plan B.

Everything points toward the Astros having a powerful hankering for Johnny Cueto's golden right arm. Bob Nightengale of USA Today recently listed the Astros among the most serious pursuers of Cueto, and Jon Heyman and Evan Drellich of the Houston Chonicle have both pointed to Cueto as Houston's No. 1 target.

The problem, though, is that the Astros will be up against some stiff competition for the ace. Teams like the Dodgers and Royals, for example, have more expendable prospects than the Astros do. And because both are leading their respective divisions, both have more incentive to keep upping the bidding.

Besides which, Houston's fall from atop the AL West makes going all-out for a rental a much-too-risky proposition. That's why they could back away from Cueto and pursue another guy instead: Tyson Ross.

Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune has reported that the Astros have talked to the Padres about their starters, with Ross and Andrew Cashner believed to be among those mentioned. And between those two, Ross makes a lot of sense for Houston.

Ross is under control for two more seasons after 2015, so he could help the Astros contend beyond this year. In addition to that, the way in which he specializes in ground balls and soft contact makes him a natural fit for an Astros rotation that does those two things very well.

Minnesota Twins: Francisco Rodriguez

Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Record: 50-42

If you're looking for an explanation for how the Twins are doing it, you won't find it in this space. Their success this season can be chalked up to an outstanding May and then a great, big pile of "Who knows?"

But as far as what they need at the deadline, there's not much mystery. They could use some relief help.

The Twins rank in the bottom 10 in MLB in bullpen ERA, and in general the bridge leading to stud closer Glen Perkins is awfully flimsy. Twins GM Terry Ryan seemed to understand this in speaking to Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press during the All-Star break, and that helps explain why the Twins have been mainly connected to relievers on the rumor mill.

As for their options, Berardino may be on to something in reporting that the Twins have checked in with the Brewers. They employ Francisco Rodriguez, who would look awfully nice as a setup man in front of fellow All-Star Glen Perkins.

The downside is that K-Rod isn't a low-risk investment, as taking him on would also mean assuming the minimum of $9.5 million he's still owed beyond 2015. But since the upside is the potential for one of the AL's best late-inning relief duos sticking through at least 2016, the Twins may consider that a fair price.

New York Yankees: Jeff Samardzija

Carlos Osorio/Associated Press

Record: 50-41

The more time goes by, the less likely it looks like anybody is going to challenge the Yankees' hold on the AL East. They may not have a vise-like grip on it, but they have a good one.

If anything could kill their hold on the AL East, however, it's their starting rotation. It's gotten the job done so far, but it remains a volatile chemical mixture that could become a mushroom cloud at any moment.

This would be why many trade rumors link the Yankees to starting pitchers, with some even throwing them in the races for Johnny Cueto and Cole Hamels, as noted by NJ.com's Brendan Kuty. But those are rumors you can ignore, as Joel Sherman is right in thinking that the Yankees aren't likely to part with any of their best prospects this summer. As he put it: "The Yankees have committed themselves to not falling down the Phillies sinkhole by continuously mortgaging tomorrow to invest in today."

Jeff Samardzija, though, is a different story.

Both Sherman and Ken Rosenthal have referenced the veteran right-hander as a good fit for the Yankees, and rightfully so. He should be within their prospect price range, and he's just the kind of reliable innings-eater that the Yankees could use in their rotation.

Said rotation would still be volatile even with Samardzija. But it would be considerably less so, and that could be all the Yankees need to lock up the AL East title.

Washington Nationals: Tyler Clippard

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Record: 50-41

Rather than the superteam many expected them to be, the Nationals have spent much of 2015 looking like a house of cards that could go at any moment. That's what happens when guys like Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth and Denard Span just can't stay healthy.

So, it's no surprise that the Nats' main target appears to be the super-utilityman. The Nationals have been linked to Ben Zobrist by Nick Cafardo and, most recently, by Peter Gammons. And if they were to get him, many a Nats fan would be feeling better about the stretch run.

But given that they're leading the NL East and are able to look forward to some good offensive players getting healthy, it's conceivable that the Nats will let themselves be outbid for Zobrist by the Mets. And if that happens, the Nats will turn to their next-most pressing need: relief help.

To this end, it's possible the Nationals will make a run at San Diego's Craig Kimbrel or Cincinnati's Aroldis Chapman. But the Nats would have to give up a ton to get either one of them, and that would be overkill with Drew Storen having proved that he's a dominant closer again.

So instead, look for the Nats to target old friend Tyler Clippard. A recent tweet from Ken Rosenthal might indicate that they've scouted him, and a deal for him is easy to see. Clippard would be a relatively cheap rental, and Nats GM Mike Rizzo and A's GM Billy Beane aren't afraid to deal with each other.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Johnny Cueto

Alex Brandon/Associated Press

Record: 53-41

Between their many dollars, many prospects and many suits hungering for a World Series title, the Dodgers are the one team in baseball that can basically do whatever the hell it wants at the deadline.

And from the sound of things, they want to add a starting pitcher first and foremost. From the sound of other things, that pitcher is going to be either Cole Hamels or Johnny Cueto.

That was the gist of a recent report from Jon Heyman, who noted that the Dodgers are arguably the best fit for Hamels. He'd look good after Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, and the Dodgers would be glad they traded for him if Greinke exercises his opt-out clause and becomes a free agent at the end of the year.

The catch is that trading for Hamels might require parting with either shortstop prospect Corey Seager or left-handed prospect Julio Urias. All indications are the Dodgers don't want to do that, and Peter Gammons writes that even some of the Dodgers' lesser-known prospects may be off the table as well.

This could be a deal-breaker for the Phillies, which could push the Dodgers toward Cueto.

Or, maybe they'll gravitate toward him anyway. He's the better pitcher of the two, and his status as a rental means his price is cheaper by default. The choice between him and Hamels is thus a choice between paying a small price for a better pitcher and paying a big price for a controllable pitcher.

Given that the Dodgers are, you know, smart, here's thinking they'd choose the former.

Los Angeles Angels: Gerardo Parra

Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

Record: 52-40

After being mired in mediocrity for almost the entire first half, the Angels caught fire right before the break and now look like a serious threat to win their second AL West title in a row.

But to do so, they're going to need another bat. Ideally, said bat would belong to a left-handed hitter who can play left field and lead off. 

That narrows things down to a tiny list, but two guys the Angels have been linked to fit the bill quite nicely. One is Ben Revere, whom Nick Cafardo says the Angels darn near traded for earlier in the year. The other is Gerardo Parra, whom Ken Rosenthal says the Angels have discussed with the Brewers.

Revere is likely the cheaper of the two options, but Parra suits the Angels' needs better. He's having a much better season offensively with a .313 average and an .848 OPS, and he's much more experienced in left field than Revere is.

Parra therefore looks like the more ideal acquisition. And though the Angels aren't well-off in terms of prospects, they're not empty-handed to a point where they can't come up with a suitable return for a non-star outfielder they'd be renting for two months. 

Pittsburgh Pirates: Aramis Ramirez

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

Record: 54-38

Fully healthy, the Pirates have just about everything they could possibly ask for. The problem they're dealing with now, however, is that they're not fully healthy—especially on the left side of their infield.

Starting third baseman Josh Harrison is already on the disabled list for the foreseeable future with a torn UCL in his left thumb, and now shortstop Jordy Mercer (knee) has joined him. As Jon Morosi of Fox Sports tweeted, this means Pittsburgh's trade-deadline focus will shift from a right field upgrade to infield depth.

With Jung-ho Kang ready, willing and able to play shortstop, the obvious target is a third baseman. And though he hasn't (to my knowledge, anyway) been linked to the Pirates, I'm thinking Steve Adams of MLBTR is right in wondering if former Pirate Aramis Ramirez could be the solution.

Getting Ramirez would require the Pirates to trade within the division, but that shouldn't be a deal-breaker. Ramirez is a free-agent-to-be who wouldn't cost much, so the long-term ramifications of a deal sending him to Pittsburgh are basically moot.

If the Pirates can land Ramirez, they'll have acquired a good fill-in at third base. And when Harrison returns from his injury, maybe he can be the right field upgrade Pittsburgh has been pondering.

Kansas City Royals: Dan Haren

Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Record: 55-36

The Royals' hold over the AL Central is likely the safest lead of any of the American League's division leaders. They're the best team the AL has to offer, and the competition is "meh" by comparison.

But the Royals have needs. One is a capable fill-in for the injured Alex Gordon (groin) in left field. A bit more pressing than that, however, is a starter who can bring a sense of order to a rotation that's been chaotic from day one.

As Joel Sherman reported, the Royals are among the more aggressive starting pitching shoppers out there and are known to have done their homework on the Reds. Not so coincidentally, Bob Nightengale has put them among the teams with the most interest in Cueto.

But we can't have the Royals landing Cueto, of course, because we have the Dodgers landing Cueto. That's a notion based mainly on the fact that the Dodgers have the resources to outbid anyone for anything. And if they do outbid the Royals for Cueto, Kansas City will have to turn to plan B's.

Regarding those, Dan Haren isn't as bad an option as you might think.

The Royals haven't been linked to Haren, so understand this is strictly speculation on my part. But here's where that speculation is coming from: The Royals wouldn't have to sell the farm to get Haren, and in return they'd be getting a solid innings-eater who could be even better in Royals blue. He's an extreme fly-ball pitcher, and he'd be on a team known for its huge home ballpark and amazing outfield defense.

St. Louis Cardinals: Adam Lind

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Record: 58-34

The Cardinals are baseball's best club for a reason. Well, two reasons if you count their famed #DevilMagic. The other is that there's not a more complete baseball team out there.

The Cardinals are so complete, in fact, that their list of needs looks petty by comparison to everyone else's. They could use depth at the back end of their rotation and a lefty-hitting first baseman to fill in for the injured Matt Adams, but that's pretty much it.

Because the Cardinals aren't exactly dying for pitching, it seems more likely that they'll pass on the trade-market madness and find a starter in the August waiver season. But they could fill their need for a lefty-hitting first baseman, and the one guy who stands out as being too perfect is Adam Lind.

Ken Rosenthal has mentioned him as a fit for the Cardinals, and understandably so. They need a first baseman who can hit right-handed pitching better than Mark Reynolds can, and over the last two seasons Lind has hit right-handed pitching at an elite level.

What makes Lind an even better fit for the Cardinals is that he need not get in Adams' way in 2016. The Cardinals could pay a modest price to acquire him from the Brewers and then cut him loose this winter by paying a $500,000 buyout.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.