Predicting the 10 Biggest Contracts Handed Out to 2025-26 MLB Free Agents
The 2025-26 MLB free-agent class might not have a Shohei Ohtani or a Juan Soto who is headed for a record-setting payday, but there are still likely to be more than a few $100 million deals handed out this winter.
Outfielder Kyle Tucker has long been viewed as the most likely candidate to be the highest-paid player of the winter, while Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman and Cody Bellinger are all expected to opt-out of their current contracts in favor of a trip to the open market.
Dylan Cease, Ranger Suárez and Framber Valdez represent the cream of the crop on the pitching side of things, while Japanese League star Munetaka Murakami is the X-factor on the market as the 25-year-old is set to make his way stateside and is expected to meet with a robust market.
Ahead, we've taken a crack at predicting the 10 biggest contracts that will be handed out to the 2025-26 free-agent class this winter.
Honorable Mentions
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1B Josh Naylor: 6 years, $95 million
At 28 years old, Naylor is one of the younger players in this free-agent class, and he has proven to be a reliable middle-of-the-order run producer over the past few seasons. Expect the Mariners to push hard to keep him around.
SP Michael King: 5 years, $90 million
An injury-plagued season where he made just 15 starts might take King out of the running for a nine-figure payday, but after Ranger Suárez, Dylan Cease and Framber Valdez, there is an easy case to be made that he is the best available starter on the market.
RP Edwin Diaz: 4 years, $88 million
The $20.4 million AAV on Diaz's last contract was the largest in MLB history for a reliever, and he is expected to opt out of the final two years and $37 million of that deal in search of more guaranteed money. A modest raise and two additional years should be an easy decision for the Mets.
SS Trevor Story: 3 years, $75 million
After playing in just 163 total games during his first three seasons in Boston, Story returned to full health this season and posted a 25-homer, 31-steal, 3.8-WAR campaign. He might not find the robust market he's hoping for given his recent injury issues, but a three-year, $75 million deal would be the equivalent of the Red Sox guaranteeing his $25 million club option for 2028.
OF Trent Grisham: 4 years, $72 million
From non-tender candidate to 34-homer season, Grisham did more to boost his stock than perhaps any player in the 2025-26 free-agent class this year. Teams won't simply forget the fact that he hit .191 with an 84 OPS+ in 1,288 plate appearances over the previous three seasons, but he's positioned himself for a nice multi-year deal.
SP Brandon Woodruff: 2 years, $50 million
A lat strain has kept Woodruff on the sidelines during Milwaukee's playoff run, and missing the entire 2024 season recovering from shoulder surgery is a less-than-ideal way to roll into free agency. He had a 3.20 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 64.2 innings when he did take the mound this year, and looks like a prime candidate for a short-term, high-AAV deal.
10. DH Kyle Schwarber
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Age: 32
Stats: 162 G, 150 OPS+, .240/.365/.563, 81 XBH (56 HR), 10 SB
WAR: 4.7
The last time Kyle Schwarber hit the open market, he was coming off a 32-homer, 3.5-WAR season with the Nationals and Red Sox, and the Phillies inked him to a four-year, $79 million deal.
It's not often a player gets more money on his second long-term contract, but Schwarber has earned it after slugging 187 home runs and posting a 134 OPS+ over the last four seasons. His 56-homer, 132-RBI campaign in 2025 has made him arguably the most impactful bat available, though his lack of secondary value and age still limit his earning power.
Predicted Contract: 4 years, $120 million
The five-year, $110 million deal that J.D. Martinez signed with the Red Sox back in 2018 stands as the largest ever given to a DH other than Shohei Ohtani, and that's a number Schwarber will likely aim to top.
9. SP Dylan Cease
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Age: 29
Stats: 32 GS, 4.55 ERA (3.56 FIP), 1.33 WHIP, 215 K, 168.0 IP
WAR: 1.1
At surface level, Dylan Cease did not have a very successful contract year for the Padres, but his 3.56 FIP and a 29.8 percent strikeout rate that ranked third among qualified starters still paints him as an impact, frontline starter.
At 29 years old and with true swing-and-miss stuff, he might have the most upside going forward of any starting pitcher in this class, and a solid start against the Cubs in the NL Wild Card Series also helped erase a dreadful 2024 postseason performance.
Predicted Contract: 5 years, $125 million
This contract would put him a tick below the five-year, $136.5 million extension that Tyler Glasnow signed after he was traded to the Dodgers, and those two have comparable profiles as swing-and-miss starters who are ace-level performers when everything is clicking.
8. SP Framber Valdez
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Age: 31
Stats: 31 GS, 3.66 ERA (3.38 FIP), 1.25 WHIP, 187 K, 192.0 IP
WAR: 3.8
Framber Valdez was on track to be the highest-paid starting pitcher in the 2025-26 free-agent class before a bizarre incident where he appeared to intentionally cross up his catcher César Salazar with a fastball to the chest out of frustration.
Given his strong track record of frontline production and significant postseason experience, more than a few teams will likely look at the bigger picture of what adding him to the rotation would mean for their 2026 outlook. However, there could also be a few clubs that avoid him entirely if they view that as a clubhouse red flag.
Predicted Contract: 5 years, $135 million
This is not the largest contract we're predicting for a starting pitcher in this class, but it is the highest AAV, with his $27 million figure putting him in the same ballpark as fellow lefties Garrett Crochet ($28.3 million) Max Fried ($27.25 million) and Carlos Rodón ($27 million).
7. OF Cody Bellinger
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Age: 30
Stats: 152 G, 125 OPS+, .272/.334/.480, 59 XBH (29 HR), 13 SB
WAR: 5.0
Cody Bellinger landed a three-year, $80 million deal from the Cubs last time he was a free agent, and that contract included opt-out clauses ahead of the second and their years. After opting into the second year of the deal last winter, he has already announced his plans to opt out this winter.
With a 125 OPS+ and 12.0 WAR over the past three seasons, his struggles at the end of his time with the Dodgers that ultimately led to him being non-tendered after the 2022 season are now far enough in the rearview for teams to fully trust his current level of production. That should mean he finally reels in a long-term deal with a price tag north of $100 million.
Predicted Contract: 5 years, $140 million
A $28 million AAV would give Bellinger a slight raise over the $26.6 million figure of his last contract, and while he might push for a sixth year, a five-year deal and an option for 2031 might be where his market ultimately lands.
6. SP Ranger Suárez
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Age: 30
Stats: 26 GS, 3.20 ERA (3.21 FIP), 1.22 WHIP, 151 K, 157.1 IP
WAR: 4.7
Here are the WAR leaders among pitchers since the start of the 2021 season:
Zack Wheeler: 27.6
Logan Webb: 21.5
Max Fried: 18.5
Corbin Burnes: 18.5
Tarik Skubal: 18.1
Ranger Suárez: 17.7
Gerrit Cole: 17.6
Framber Valdez: 17.3
Dylan Cease: 16.9
Kevin Gausman: 16.4
He is not often mentioned among the game's elite pitchers, but Ranger Suárez has been excellent for the Phillies since becoming a full-time member of their starting rotation, and his age and consistency make him the most attractive candidate for a deal longer than five years among the starting pitching class.
Predicted Contract: 6 years, $160 million
This is a slightly lower AAV than the predicted contract for Framber Valdez, but the highest overall payday thanks to that sixth year.
5. 3B Alex Bregman
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Age: 31
Stats: 114 G, 128 OPS+, .273/.360/.462, 46 XBH (18 HR), 1 SB
WAR: 3.5
Alex Bregman was one of the final free agency dominos to fall last winter, with speculation of a return to the Houston Astros or a reunion with manager A.J. Hinch in Detroit swirling before he eventually inked a three-year, $120 million deal with the Red Sox.
It has already been reported that he plans to opt-out of the final two years and $80 million that deal, and while he might not find that same AAV over a long-term contract, something close is not out of the question given his long track record of production and 102 games worth of playoff experience.
Predicted Contract: 5 years, $175 million
A $35 million AAV would match the figure that Anthony Rendon received from the Angels, and for a player who has piled up 43.1 WAR over 10 seasons in the big leagues, it's a reasonable ask over a five-year contract.
4. SS Bo Bichette
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Age: 27
Stats: 139 G, 129 OPS+, .311/.357/.483, 63 XBH (18 HR), 4 SB
WAR: 3.4
Bo Bichette is going to be one of the most polarizing players on the market this offseason.
In a thin market for shortstop talent, he is far and away the best available option, but in the same breath it's fair to question if he should even continue playing that position. He has never been a strong defender, and finished with the worst defensive metrics (-12 DRS, -13 OAA) of his career in 2025.
However, he did successfully erase a down year at the plate in 2024 with a bounce-back performance, and even if he does end up shifting to second base he is more than capable of earning his salary on his offensive game alone.
Predicted Contract: 7 years, $180 million
The Rangers signed Marcus Semien to a seven-year, $175 million deal to play second base after he had previously manned shortstop, and that has ended up being an excellent signing. That could end up being the best available comp for Bichette's earning power.
3. 1B Pete Alonso
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Age: 30
Stats: 162 G, 144 OPS+, .272/.347/.524, 80 XBH (38 HR), 1 SB
WAR: 3.4
Pete Alonso was a free agent for the first time last offseason, and he failed to find the long-term deal he was seeking, ultimately finding his way back to the Mets on a two-year, $54 million deal that paid him $30 million in 2025 with a $24 million player option for 2026.
After another terrific season where he racked up 327 total bases—the most since his record-setting rookie campaign—he has done nothing to hurt his value and will again be looking for that long-term pact this winter.
Predicted Contract: 7 years, $210 million
According to Mike Puma of the New York Post, Alonso is looking for a seven-year deal, and this time around he might get it, especially if someone gives the Mets a serious run for their money in retaining his services. He is one of the few hitters capable of transforming a lineup, and a $30 million AAV would make him one of the highest-paid first basemen in MLB history.
2. 3B Munetaka Murakami
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Age: 25
Stats: 69 G, .286/.392/.659, 34 XBH (24 HR), 5 SB
Munetaka Murakami announced himself as one of the best young hitters on the planet during the 2022 season when he batted .318/.458/.710 with 56 home runs and 134 RBI in his age-22 campaign with the Yakult Swallows.
During his eight seasons in the Japanese League, he has hit .273/.394/.550 with 265 home runs and 722 RBI, and while his defense at third base is a bit of a question mark, his bat is fully expected to play in the big leagues.
Contract Prediction: 10 years, $220 million
Yoshinobu Yamamoto landed a massive 12-year, $325 million contract from the Dodgers due in large part to his age and the fact that he was not restricted by international signing limitations due to his professional experience. Murakami checks the same two boxes, and while he won't match that payday, a $200 million contract is well within reach.
1. OF Kyle Tucker
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Age: 28
Stats: 136 G, 143 OPS+, .266/.377/.464, 51 XBH (22 HR), 25 SB
WAR: 4.5
Age, track record and a well-rounded skill set that should age well are all on Kyle Tucker's side as he gets set to hit the open market for the first time in his career.
Despite playing through some nagging injuries during the second half, he was still a 4-WAR player for the fifth consecutive season, and he also logged the third 20/20 campaign of his career.
Predicted Contract: 10 years, $350 million
This would be the fifth-largest contract ever given to an outfielder, and only Juan Soto ($51 million), Aaron Judge ($40 million) and Mike Trout ($35.5 million) clock in with a higher AAV on their deals.
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