Why Your Favorite Team Won't Win the 2026 NBA Championship
Another NBA season is upon us, which means it's time for an annual rite of passage unlike any other: Finding out why Your Favorite Team™ is about to be absolute garbage.
Oh, and why it's most definitely not going to win the title.
This exercise is not for easily bruised egos. Nor is it a place for nuance. It's a spot for bad jokes, the consumption of low-hanging fruit, hefty hyperbole, and the more-than-occasional talking point worth further exploration.
Just so we're clear: I do not despise or have agendas against Your Favorite Team. For content's sake, though, I absolutely hate Your Favorite Team while simultaneously loving Everybody Else's Favorite Team™. Your Favorite Team's season will not end with a championship banner. That honor will belong to Literally Anybody Else's Favorite Team™. Consider yourselves warned.
Atlanta Hawks
1 of 30
In a Nutshell: You can't be committed to winning with a star player to whom you won't commit.
The Atlanta Hawks had a solid offseason. They might just win more than 43 games for the first time since the NBA made us pretend Kyle Korver was an All-Star. Hang the "Received a Passing 2025 Offseason Grade" banner now.
It's nevertheless tough to believe in a team that doesn't believe in its best player. Trae Young remains extension-less, with a player option for 2026-27, and we're supposed to assume that's peachy keen and not at all grounds for midseason distractions: locker room leaks, trade speculation, additional Pat Beverley podcast content, et al.
Screaming from the rooftops about the debatability of Trae's value earns you cap-dork cool points. (Note: I am a cap dork.) It does nothing to paper over the glaring absence of a commitment. De'Aaron Fox procured one from the San Antonio Spurs for crying out loud, a team for which he has played 17 games, and that has a trillion other guards (OK, two) with questionable jumpers who prefer to operate on-ball.
The Hawks have no such safety nets. They are punting on a conventional secondary playmaker.
Counting on Jalen Johnson to finish the season healthy may be optimistic; similarly, counting on Kristaps Porziņģis to play in more than 57 games could be equally challenging. The Nickeil Alexander-Walker on-ball experience will be great for "Play Vit Krejci" chanters. "Luke Kennard can do enough of the ball-handling" is something someone might say if they've never Googled his injury history. Atlanta sold Kobe Bufkin for the equivalent of a tanking fine ($110,000).
This team is better. It's also the Hawks. Even if they are drama- and injury-free, the middle-most part of the standings, and life at large, is their North Star.
Boston Celtics
2 of 30
In a Nutshell: The manufacturers of championship rings do not accept promo codes.
The Boston Celtics have made their intentions very clear in the aftermath of Jayson Tatum's Achilles injury: This season is a gap year—a deliberate one, not the annually accidental gap year the Sacramento Kings have been belching out since before Hugo Gonzalez could walk.
Salary-slashing was the theme of the summer. The Celtics have already skirted the second apron and are a stone's throw from sidestepping the first. Ducking entirely out of the luxury tax is next.
It feels like only a matter of time before they flip Anfernee Simons' expiring deal for a 17th-man making 10th-man's money along with the rights to an international draft pick from 15 years ago.
To what extent the Celtics will lean into irrelevance remains a matter of course. They still have plenty of talent. But there will come a point of the season when, assuming they survive the cost-chainsawing, Jaylen Brown and Derrick White miss extended time with injuries to what sound like made-up body parts. The over/under on the number of games lost due to ingrown eyebrow hairs is 17.5.
By no later than March, Baylor Scheierman will be jacking enough shots to make Cam Thomas blush. The 6'5" Maksym Shulga will be starting at center. Whispers of Jayson Tatum's one-on-none practice domination will be the stuff of legend. And Boston will be forfeiting home games in service of hosting watch parties at TD Garden for the extended cut of The Town, dubbed over with commentary from head coach Joe Mazzulla speaking in his best Christian Bale Batman voice.
Brooklyn Nets
3 of 30
In a Nutshell: They learned their lesson.
After not losing enough last season, the Brooklyn Nets have thrown all pretense out the window this year. They have one more chance to maximize their own draft pick before their 2027 selection is controlled by the Houston Rockets and are going to bottom out like they mean it. For real this time.
Not only did they keep all five of their first-rounders, but they also used four of them might-be guards and the other on a wannabe guard in a 6'11" frame. Cam Johnson is gone. Michael Porter Jr. and someone currently attending middle school (Denver's 2032 first-round pick) is in.
Brooklyn's most veteran-possible lineup will feature Terence Mann, Nicolas Claxton, the fresh-off-a-restricted-free-agency-standoff Cam Thomas and…Ziaire Williams? MPJ is in there as well, at least until he starts load-managing between podcasts.
Head coach Jordi Fernandez is finally chaperoning a roster with which he can't overachieve. And if for some reason he does, general manager Sean Marks seems committed enough to the tank that he won't hesitate to replace him on the sidelines with Drew Timme.
Charlotte Hornets
4 of 30
In a Nutshell: Ten-year anniversary gifts are traditionally tin or aluminum.
Inviting the Charlotte Hornets to the postseason, let alone the NBA Finals, would just be awkward for everyone. They haven't been to the playoffs in a decade. There are fifth graders in North Carolina who haven't been alive long enough to experience the thrill of their favorite basketball team's season extending all the way to April 29. The horror.
Any case in favor of the Hornets begins with LaMelo Ball staying healthy. That argument is sturdy enough to be picked apart with an inflatable toothpick. He has not played in Charlotte's last game of the season since Mason Plumlee was on the roster, which is jarring, but at least explains the offseason.
Surrounding LaMelo with a crap ton of shooting is a legitimate recipe for offensive success. Bankrolling a center rotation shallow enough to make the New Orleans Pelicans balk is not.
Head coach Charles Lee better get a statue outside Spectrum Center if this defense doesn't finish inside the bottom 10. Its best stopper comes down to Sion James, 2023-24 Brandon Miller, the idea of Josh Green or LaMelo throwing a pass out of bounds.
If wins were measured by Eric Collins' ability to hype us up after made free throws that touch multiple parts of the rim, Charlotte would be a contender. They aren't. So, it's not.
Chicago Bulls
5 of 30
In a Nutshell: Ambition is the enemy of success.
Treating the Chicago Bulls as a playoff hopeful undermines everything they've built. They can't have the play-in tournament named after them if their season too often extends past it.
Jokes about the Bulls' obsession over bagging 39 to 40 victories would get tiring if they weren't so accurate. They are the Josh Giddey contract of basketball teams: a couple notches above awful, but completely unnecessary.
Credit head coach Billy Donovan for implementing an aesthetically pleasing offense, and to the front office for drafting Matas Buzelis in 2024. I'm excited to see how the organization ruins both this season, presumably by mandating Nikola Vučević lead the league in touches at the nail until February in order to inflate his value enough for executive vice president Artūras Karnišovas to extend him.
Expiring contracts galore position the Bulls to uncrate fireworks ahead of the trade deadline. If only we could trust they wouldn't set them off in their own face. Are they more likely to recoup what value they can for Coby White in advance of his free-agency payday, or shell out multiple first-rounders of their own for the league's 57th-best player? Don't answer that, unless you're a masochist.
There is something to be said for continuity. The Bulls are nothing if not consistent. Their quest to stay in the bottom-of-the-middle, much like the Patrick Williams contract, transcends time and space.
Cleveland Cavaliers
6 of 30
In a Nutshell: You can't be the champions of excuses if you win the actual championship.
Three years into the Donovan Mitchell era, the Cleveland Cavaliers have two postseason-series victories and zero competitive second-round appearances. Fear not. They can explain it all.
They were banged up. They weren't used to physicality. Jarrett Allen was stuck under a bus. The New York Knicks found their defense's Achilles heel: a missed shot. Donovan Mitchell needed to do too much. Evan Mobley couldn't shoot yet. JB Bickerstaff was the DeMar DeRozan of Tom Thibodeaus.
What twist of fate beyond their control will befall these Cavs next? Will they only realize in mid-April that Dean Wade and De'Andre Hunter aren't the most durable wing options? Be hit with the unforeseeable news that Lonzo Ball isn't cleared to play 35 minutes per game? Find out that neither Mitchell nor Darius Garland grew four inches during the regular season?
With Tyrese Haliburton and Jayson Tatum likely sidelined for the entire year, the Knicks pretending they have depth and the Orlando Magic thinking they have enough shooting even though they don't, the stage is set for these Cavs to emerge from the Eastern Conference.
Put another way: T-minus six months until Cleveland is rationalizing another five-game second-round exit.
Dallas Mavericks
7 of 30
In a Nutshell: President of basketball operations Nico Harrison's master vision apparently doesn't include dribbling.
The Dallas Mavericks are huge. Terrifyingly so. The defense could be a monster. The offense will be an eyesore.
D'Angelo Russell and Klay Thompson have entirely too much power over the Mavs' fate. Giving the ball to Cooper Flagg tantalizes in concept. The negative spacing in which he's forced to work will incite PTSD (post-traumatic stress from dribbling).
Kyrie Irving's return from a torn left ACL, going on age 34, will solve everything. Obviously. Just don't ask when that return might be. Depending on the day, it could be January, February, March, next season, whenever his power crystal glows a hue of blue-green within 72 hours of a full moon—who's to say, really?
On the off-chance an aging point guard recovering from a major injury isn't an all-time panacea, we can rest easy knowing Nico Harrison has a plan. On a scale of "Ryan Nembhard leads the league in assists" to "Jaden Hardy inadvertently Space Jam-ing Stephen Curry's superpowers," it probably falls somewhere around "The Boston Celtics offering Payton Pritchard for Dwight Powell plus salary."
You may not be able to see the vision, but it's there, marinating, gradually actualizing, visible only to those who understand happy accidents are just scheduled luck.
In the meantime, congratulations to Anthony Davis for finally landing on a team that doesn't have to play him at center. It'll be fascinating to see how he takes to shooting guard.
Denver Nuggets
8 of 30
In a Nutshell: They already won the Cap Sheet Olympics.
Optimism springs eternal for the Denver Nuggets after an offseason in which they punted on their 2032 first-round pick so they could save their billionaire governor money, acquire something like the league's 69th-best player for the 73rd-best player and land a backup big man who, if it were up to him, would be hooping in Greece. Hell, yeah!
Getting the Bruce Brown and Tim Hardaway Jr. from two years ago for minimum deals was also a stroke of brilliance. More teams should run free agents through a time machine.
This is definitely going to be the season in which the Nuggets successfully tread water during the no-Nikola Jokić minutes for longer than those X-game splits glorified Muse accounts like to cite on Twitter. Sure, the backup point guard rotation doesn't really exist. And OK, the Jamal Murray solo minutes have never really worked.
And all right, the supporting cast is populated by perimeter players who can't shoot (Christian Braun, Peyton Watson), who can shoot but don't know when not to shoot (THJ), who can't defend (Julian Strawther), and who Stephen A. Smith thinks play for the Detroit Pistons (Brown).
Aside from that, though, the Nuggets are sitting pretty.
Detroit Pistons
9 of 30
In a Nutshell: Javonte Green is the closest they come to a three-and-D wing.
"Progress isn't linear" has become a common refrain when evaluating the 2025-26 Detroit Pistons. That's just a fancy way of saying they didn't get any better.
Going from Dennis Schröder, Malik Beasley and Simone Fontecchio to Caris LeVert and Duncan Robinson is just lateral enough for the Chicago Bulls to get on board with it.
Granted, we can't forget to count Jaden Ivey as another addition. A 30-game sample in which he shot almost 41 percent from three is clearly representative of a new normal, and we needn't at all worry that he's coming back from a broken left leg.
Not having a shooter who can soak up time at the 5 feels like a missed opportunity. Maybe Isaiah Stewart can plead with J.B. Bickerstaff to let him take threes again. The Pistons are about as reliant on Tobias Harris being better-than-good as the 2019 Philadelphia 76ers, minus the baggage of choosing him over Jimmy Butler.
Detroit's dearth of wings who can shoot and defend is starting to get awkward. "Cade Cunningham counts!" is something you might say that also proves the point.
Ron Holland II and Ausar Thompson will continue to improve, but "adding a dependable jump shot" is not the kind of afterthought development that can be honed in an empty gym over one offseason. If it were, every center ever would be an active floor-spacer. It took Giannis Antetokounmpo over a decade to even become a viable mid-range threat…who defenses actively want to take mid-rangers.
Failing all of that, the Pistons have a hard ceiling. The collective bargaining agreement explicitly prohibits Bickerstaff-coached teams from making it past Game 5 of the second round.
Golden State Warriors
10 of 30
In a Nutshell: 37, 32, 36, 35, 39.
No, these are not the winning numbers from the Golden State Warriors' weekly bingo supper. It's the potential ages of everyone in their starting five.
This is geriatric enough to make the Los Angeles Clippers cringe. They at least have up to two guys on the right side of 30 in their projected starting five (John Collins and Ivica Zubac).
The Warriors can get to one if they sub out 32-year-old Buddy Hield for Brandin Podziemski, who is 22, but coming back from the offseason of someone old enough to collect social security. Ditto for the 23-year-old Moses Moody.
Golden State did largely crush it last season when Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green shared the floor. Fortunately, none of these guys ever miss time due to injuries or suspensions.
Jonathan Kuminga's outlook is tough to reconcile. On the one hand, he has an incentive to play the good soldier in hopes of fast-tracking his exit after Jan. 15. On the other hand, the over/under for the number of offensive possessions he hijacks while on the floor is all of them.
It says a lot that the best possible version of these Warriors requires a floor-spacing 5 to tie everything together. Thankfully, Al Horford is in his prime and Quinten Post didn't just shoot 31.3 percent on threes in his playoff debut.
The depth on this team is a weird brew of old, fragile or unproven. Head coach Steve Kerr might actually run out of bodies behind which he can bury Moody. This group's ceiling could top out at winning it all. Its floor is Butler, Green and Kuminga starting a podcast for working-class public relations professionals.
Houston Rockets
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In a Nutshell: Eleven of their roster spots are occupied by power forwards and centers.
Someone on the cutting edge will certainly remind us that "getting bogged down by positions is so 2015," as they roll their eyes and sip their Moscow Mule out of a copper mug. They're not wrong.
The Houston Rockets' issue is more about their should-be guards and wings playing like forwards or bigs. It was a potentially navigable issue prior to Fred VanVleet's right ACL injury. It will be their undoing now.
VanVleet finished third on the Rockets last season in three-point makes. Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks ranked first and second, respectively. They are now trapped in the basketball wasteland formerly known as Phoenix. Jabari Smith Jr. was the fourth-leading shot-maker from deep, and he's got a handle worthy of starting at point guard for the Dallas Mavericks.
That cuts to the heart of the issue: The Rockets are now devoid of players who can pass, dribble and shoot. Maybe Reed Sheppard becomes one, but he's basically a rookie. Amen Thompson shot under 15 percent on (very few) above-the-break threes last year. Aaron Holiday, as it turns out, has no relation to Prime Damian Lillard.
Kevin Durant kind of checks all three boxes, but only if you squint hard enough. He's not someone who should be running point, and he's more likely to ignore his Twitter mentions than materially drum up his three-point volume.
Houston technically has the assets to make something happen on the trade market. It just doesn't have a ton of realistically movable contracts before December. The Clint Capela reunion now looks like the mother of all WTF offseason moves. This team added a generational scorer and stacked the deck with enough 4s, 5s and 4s-masquerading-as-guards-and-wings to possibly get worse on offense. It's frankly impressive.
Indiana Pacers
12 of 30
In a Nutshell: The bulk of this team's identity is either sidelined or in Wisconsin.
This belief that the Indiana Pacers will scrap and claw and not for a moment consider tanking and ultimately be fine borders on unhinged. Tyrese Haliburton is the lifeblood of the offense that made it to the NBA Finals, he won't play this season while recovering from an Achilles injury, and this team is just going to…figure it out?
What does that even look like? Andrew Nembhard having the energy to turn into an efficient high-volume off-the-dribble three-point shooter despite defending 94 feet for 30-plus minutes a night? Bennedict Mathurin fighting every innate basketball urge in his body? "Morphing into Prime Kawhi Leonard" being the one new skill Aaron Nesmith adds every year?
People are also underrating the departure of Myles Turner because they watched him struggle against a generational defense in the NBA Freaking Finals. His floor-spacing at the 5 remains an anomaly and was another crux of the Pacers' identity. They aren't going to Ewing Theory his exit just because Jay Huff plays like the Myles Turner of Jay Huffs for 11 minutes at a time every now and then, and because every NBA podcaster has memorized Indy's net rating during the Pascal Siakam-Obi Toppin frontcourt minutes.
Head coach Rick Carlisle is a basketball genius. He's not a practicing sorcerer. Capable depth could make the Pacers interesting, but there's not nearly enough here for them to do more than 30-something-wins themselves out of a golden gap-year opportunity.
Los Angeles Clippers
13 of 30
In a Nutshell: Age circumvention is not a realistic aspiration.
After spending much of last season playing smaller, wreaking havoc on defense and getting out in transition, the Los Angeles Clippers looked at their roster and, apparently, thought "What if we got bigger, slower and much older?"
The average age of this roster clocks in at 29.6. The NBA has not crowned a champion that old since the 2012-13 Miami Heat. They had LeBron James in the heart of his prime. The Clippers have Ivica Zubac in the middle of his.
Los Angeles' talent is undeniable. It has enough depth to weather regular-season absences. But Kawhi Leonard is still the Clippers' best player and still an injury risk. He has been on the floor during their final game of the season just twice since coming over from the Toronto Raptors six years ago. You are statistically more likely to see him planting trees across the street from the Intuit Dome than play in 65 regular-season games and remain healthy through the playoffs.
It's also weird how everyone has collectively agreed to gloss over Los Angeles deciding that putting James Harden and Chris Paul in the same locker room again is a good idea. The front office should sign Dwight Howard out of retirement while it's on a roll.
Don't fret over the Clippers' point-of-attack defense without Kris Dunn on the floor. Head coach Tyronn Lue has a vision worthy of Nico Harrison: Bradley Beal recapturing his elite defensive skills. Perhaps while he's at it, Lue can request that Harden return to playoff form.
Los Angeles Lakers
14 of 30
In a Nutshell: LeBron James needs custom-made bench cushions for his sciatica.
President of basketball operations Rob Pelinka went from declaring the Los Angeles Lakers the custodians of LeBron James' legacy to saying, essentially, "Yeah, it'd be pretty cool if he retired here." This isn't the scandal some will make it out to be. Prioritizing the Dončić timeline is the sensible play. He is entering his age-26 season. LeBron will turn 41 at the end of December.
Try as they might to suggest they're angling towards immediate title contention, the Lakers are high on that future-cap-space supply. They have structured their books to be ultra-flexible over the next two summers. They reportedly didn't offer LeBron an extension this past offseason, prompting him to pick up his player option and his agent, Rich Paul, to make "Thanks for the memories-esque" comments to ESPN's Shams Charania.
Nikola Jokić's agent also posted an IG photo of himself hanging out with LeBron and Maverick Carter, captioned "The summer of 2025 is the perfect time to make big plans for the fall of 2026." Then, the four-time champ threw up a photo of him working out with a Los Angeles Clippers logo in the background. Both instances have additional context. Jokić's agent was apparently referencing the possibility of an international league, and LeBron was working out at an old Clippers facility.
Nothing to see here, obviously. Everything is fine. It's not like LeBron is the most methodical main character in the NBA or anything, who knows exactly what'll happen when he does anything like this. He isn't plotting his next cryptic post, deep-fake brand campaign or a live-stream workout from Jokić's personal horse stable. This is all going to end well, rather than with him strolling into nationally televised games wearing a steady rotation of Denver Nuggets, Dallas Mavericks, Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors throwback jerseys.
The rest of the Lakers' offseason speaks for itself. Deandre Ayton and Marcus Smart are now in purple and gold. The year 2021 is ecstatic. Jake LaRavia is a solid pickup, but there is a not-insignificant chance the Lakers' biggest summer addition winds up being Luka's discovery that protein powder can be mixed with almond milk instead of butter, coconut oil and heavy cream.
Memphis Grizzlies
15 of 30
In a Nutshell: The injury reports are longer than CVS receipts.
What's the over/under on the number of games in which Ja Morant (ankle), Jaren Jackson Jr. (toe), Zach Edey (ankle) and Brandon Clarke (knee) all make appearances. If it's higher than 36, take the under. If it's lower than 36, also take the under.
It's starting to feel like the Memphis Grizzlies are cursed. They can never be fully healthy for more than one-quadrillionth of a second. Or have more than a theoretical solution to their top-wing-player void.
Speaking of which: Jaylen Wells and Cedric Coward are carrying the torch for that latter tradition. Memphis might finally have multiple wings for the future. Or it's got a middle-rung three-and-D role player and a higher-upside swing with injury concerns.
This all says nothing of the Grizzlies' overarching direction. We haven't seen this many mixed signals since…Memphis' 2025 trade deadline.
Trading Desmond Bane reeks of a team in transition planning to stockpile assets, but the Grizz consolidated two first-rounders (and more) into Coward. Knowing full well how depleted their big-man rotation could become, they used the room exception on a guard (Ty Jerome), sent Jay Huff to the Indiana Pacers for seconds and signed Jock Landale, who is already generating entirely too much buzz for someone who barely beat out a 38-year-old Jeff Green for court time last season.
Santi Aldama may need to clear 3,000 minutes for the Grizzlies' frontcourt to semi-properly function. Or GG Jackson II will need to man center. Or pundits and podcasters will have to pretend they've watched PJ Hall play basketball before.
Looming over all of this is the extension for which Morant was eligible and either did not sign or was not offered, all on the heels of Memphis giving Jackson a raise before he required one. What could go wrong for this team, aside from absolutely everything?
Miami Heat
16 of 30
In a Nutshell: They're two years away from their next superstar trade being two years away.
I waffle back-and-forth on whether the Miami Heat failing to acquire another marquee player over the offseason is a legitimate talking point or forced fodder. The matter is debated enough for it to feel lazy and overly contrived.
Yet, when you've done everything short of plaster "We Almost Traded or Showed Interest In Trading For Your Team's Best Player, So Long As He Has An All-NBA Selection On His Resume" across your City Edition court, the absence of blockbuster arrivals will forever remain notable.
Landing Norman Powell was a good piece of business, which is NBA blogboi-speak for "Good job, good effort, I totally forgot Kevin Love was even still on this team." He gives the Heat a much-needed drive-or-shoot outlet, and his value increases tenfold as they ratchet up the pace.
Powell does not fill the primary ball-handler void. The best version of a (healthy) Tyler Herro doesn't, either. The #HeatCulture cult will insist that they'll be just fine, that a breakout from Kasparas Jakucionis, Pelle Larsson and/or Dru Smith is fait accompli, that Bam Adebayo 15-footers can be an offense's lifeblood, and that this is the type of team Erik Spoelstra was born to coach.
Maybe they're right. The Nikola Jović extension already looks like a steal. Jaime Jaquez Jr. dunked on a sentient being from outer space. The roster has a sneaky depth to it. Still, it's tough to take a team seriously when it's star-obsessed, and when pursuits of said star are so down bad they now resort to piggybacking off rumors that very clearly had nothing to do with them.
Milwaukee Bucks
17 of 30
In a Nutshell: Almost $50 million per year for Myles Turner is a lot.
Oh, Milwaukee Bucks. Allow us to list all the reasons why your season will end before May. Your…
- front office thought the best way to keep Giannis Antetokounmpo was to set $22.5 million per year on fire through 2029-30 so that it could sign Turner through 2028-29.
- second offensive option is either Turner, Kyle Kuzma, Kevin Porter Jr. or Cole Anthony on a heater.
- wing rotation looks like Jon Horst's punishment for finishing last in his fantasy football league.
- most reliable and effective floor-spacer is Damian Lillard's dead-cap hit.
- head coach sounds like RFK Jr. finally pulled out the toad lodged in his throat.
- team governor, Wes Edens, is either wearing highly flammable pants or one of the least memorable conversationalists of all time.
- best player is one losing streak away from requesting a trade or demanding a guaranteed contract for his third cousin's neighbor's tarot card reader.
This list could go on. But it won't. You're welcome.
Minnesota Timberwolves
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In a Nutshell: Sometimes, subtraction is just subtraction.
So let's get this straight: The Minnesota Timberwolves are fresh off getting trucked by the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference Finals, lost Nickeil Alexander-Walker over second-apron concerns, and we're supposed to believe they'll be better equipped to win it all because…why? Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley will start aging in reverse? Anthony Edwards' offseason development may amount to taking fewer threes?
Ah, yes, I forgot about Terence Shannon Jr., Jaylen Clark and Rob Dillingham. They will all be ready. Or some combination of them is ready. Never mind that none of them logged even 550 minutes during the 2024-25 regular season. This is clearly a given.
Minnesota has quietly assembled a frontcourt built around three one-way bigs making a combined 60ish percent of the salary cap. This should probably get more attention, though it's easy to glom onto the idea that Bones Hyland may wind up being important to this team.
Preseason was nothing if not proof the Wolves haven't changed. Losing in consecutive overtimes, against the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks, is so incredibly on-brand.
Nothing is ever easy with this team. The Wolves might be good enough, again, to prop up the illusion of contention. The fantasy will come apart when it matters most. They are the champions of "Making Life Hair-Pullingly Difficult When It Doesn't Need To Be," nothing more.
New Orleans Pelicans
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In a Nutshell: There is a disconnect between the front office and reality.
Don't tell lead basketball executives Joe Dumars and Troy Weavers the New Orleans Pelicans aren't about to dethrone the Oklahoma City Thunder. They're acting like this team will, or like the world will end before the 2026 draft.
Whenever you can trade away an unprotected first-round pick after winning 21 games the season before without seriously elevating your place in the Western Conference, you obviously have to do it. Derik Queen might be really good. It doesn't excuse the price paid to get him—or the concerns surrounding his fit.
Everyone has been calling for the Pelicans to surround Zion Williamson with a floor-spacer and/or elite rim protector since the dawn of time. Naturally, they just expended a primo asset on a ground-bound non-shooter who treats transition defense as optional. And then signed Kevin Looney.
Don't worry, though. They also drafted Jeremiah Fears at No. 7, and teams heavily reliant on two rookie lotto picks are always playoff-bound right out of the gate.
Jordan Poole might be an upgrade over CJ McCollum, but New Orleans is among the organizations most likely to cheap out. Adding $40-plus million in salary for 2026-27 with Poole and Saddiq Bey is going to end poorly.
Suffering injuries that sideline you for extended periods of time remains a rite of passage for Pelicans players. Queen is already ahead of the curve. Dejounte Murray is still recovering from a torn Achilles. Zion Williamson is Zion Williamson. New Orleans' injury luck is cursed. The rest of its issues—right down to the seemingly annual tradition of dumping someone who makes between $4 million and $8 million to cut financial corners—are self-inflicted.
New York Knicks
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In a Nutshell: Their depth is this season's great big lie.
Shallow rotations are a thing of the past for the New York Knicks, in case you haven't heard. They have assembled a roster that goes 10 or 11 playable bodies deep…if everything goes exactly according to plan…and you round up from eight…or maybe seven.
Guerschon Yabusele is the big fish. It's a miracle the Knicks didn't have to fork over the entire mini MLE for a 29-year-old whose one good NBA season came while playing on a moribund Philadelphia 76ers squad.
Landing Jordan Clarkson is a caps-lock STEAL. It's not everyday you get players for the minimum whose former teams paid them to leave, who have the shot-diet inhibitions of J.R. Smith's evil twin, and who asked if he could sign with you for the minimum.
New York is on track to extend its rotation further by (likely) dumping Pacome Dadiet so it ends up with room for two of the now-retired Malcolm Brogdon, Landry Shamet and Garrison Mathews. This is a "pending a physical" fever dream if there ever was one.
Please don't forget Mitchell Robinson qualifies as additional depth, too. He is most definitely going to remain healthy after making 48 regular-season appearances over the past two years. Let's not overlook durability at the top, either. OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart missed a combined 13 games last season. That's totally happening again.
Bake in the Knicks being entirely free from distractions like Hart wearing a finger split, their lucratively paid floor-spacing center needing to play power forward, Jalen Brunson learning to play Anti-Thibs Ball and Giannis Antetokounmpo rumors, and quite frankly, why would you ever dream of picking any other team to win the title?
Oklahoma City Thunder
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In a Nutshell: It's simple math.
A reigning NBA champion has not successfully defended its title since the 2017-18 Golden State Warriors. This converts to approximately 7.67 decades in basketball years.
Sam Presti might as well strip down the Oklahoma City Thunder and rebuild in the face of odds so long. Given his previous rebuilding timeline, that puts them back in the NBA Finals around 2028.
By now, you might be thinking this is the reason you give when you have no reasons. Shrewd observation. But there are a handful of genuine pitfalls that could upend the Thunder's championship pursuit from within.
Chet Holmgren is hardly a billboard for excellent health and didn't report to training camp two inches taller. SMH. Oklahoma City is on the smaller side even when running two bigs. Jalen Williams is recovering from right wrist surgery. Its secondary ball-handling is a little light after him. The mothership is overdue to call Shai Gilgeous-Alexander home. The rotation goes fewer than 25 players deep. Adam Flagler left in free agency.
Imminent threats in the West also made power moves like signing one of the 15 best centers from 2021, populating their depth chart almost exclusively with power forwards and landing Jock Landale. With so much working against them, the Thunder will be lucky to crack the play-in.
Orlando Magic
22 of 30
In a Nutshell: Desmond Bane hasn't been cloned yet.
Two players on the Orlando Magic last season shot better than 36 percent from downtown: Caleb Houstan and Cory Joseph. Both of them are gone.
Desmond Bane is one player. He is not going to fix everything that concerns us about Orlando's offense. Stretching the boundaries to include Tyus Jones does very little, since it's only a matter of time before his lack of size and defense compels head coach Jamahl Mosley to let him collect dust on the bench.
"Internal development" is the buzzphrase on which so much of the Magic's 2025-26 hopes rest.
So what if Franz Wagner's outside shot has been MIA for the past two years? Who cares that Paolo Banchero has about the same true shooting percentage since entering the NBA as Jalen Green? And what's it to you, me or anyone else that Jalen Suggs has shot better than 33 percent from downtown exactly once?
This offense is so going to hum. It's going to have internal development! And Bane! And internal development! And it's not like we have evidence of someone promptly seeing their outside efficiency implode upon arriving in Orlando. Plus, internal development!
Here's to the Magic hopefully enjoying their reign as the playoff team nobody wants to play but everybody beats anyway.
Philadelphia 76ers
23 of 30
In a Nutshell: Days Hours Minutes Seconds without depressing update/realization: 0.
Nothing says "championship contender" quite like half of your top six's immediate outlook billowing in the wind.
Paul George would like you to know he's still "got a lot of game" left in him. Following offseason surgery on his left knee, he just doesn't know when (if?) you'll get to see it. Jared McCain is dealing with yet another injury (thumb), because the Sixers are apparently forbidden from having feel-good players. The bar for positive Joel Embiid updates has dropped so low that news of him walking onto the practice court without falling through it warrants a parade.
On the bright side, the backup-center rotation is totally se—
OK, they were smart enough not to leave Quentin Grimes' agent on read for three mon—
Well, at least the Sixers didn't miss the chance to keep Guerschon Yabusele as a resul—
At the bare minimum, they won't need VJ Edgecombe to guard up against bigger, burlier wing pla—
Ah, well. At least the inevitable Kelly Oubre Jr.-for-tax-relief trade this winter is going to hit Josh Harris and David Blitzer like a Viagra-and-Red Bull. *Rechecks the first-round protections on the pick Philadelphia owes to Oklahoma City*
Phoenix Suns
24 of 30
In a Nutshell: Dead cap hits can't play point guard.
There is a distinctly uncomfortable corporate-merger-gone-wrong vibe to this whole era of Phoenix Suns basketball. The union of three stars that looked problematic on paper, never seemed sustainable beyond the shorter term and cost way too many assets didn't work out. Who could have predicted this ending poorly, aside from absolutely everyone?
Team governor Mat Ishbia is the human hyperbole at the center of it all. He trafficked in over-the-top promises and proclamations and is now backsliding to a less-glitzy model built around Devin Booker, with far fewer assets and Chris Pauls than before, and pretending like it is Phoenix's prerogative and not because the franchise is suffocating beneath the weight of its past recklessness.
Based on their nostalgia for CP3, the Suns seem due for reunions with Deandre Ayton, Jae Crowder, Cameron Payne and who knows, maybe even Marquese Chriss and Dragan Bender, before trying to, in 2030, reacquire Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson, coax CP3 out of retirement and announce the invention of the wheel.
Nobody should feign knowing what this team is trying to do, let alone trust them to do it. Booker's extension feels like hush money. Jalen Green is apparently the point guard, whatever that means, which is definitely going to end well for the roster's collection of playmaker-dependent bigs.
Phoenix traded Kevin Durant and is still light on assets. Bradley Beal's dead cap hit might outlast the hydrogen in our sun's core. We could say the future is bleak, but this would imply the Suns have any future at all.
Portland Trail Blazers
25 of 30
In a Nutshell: Rumor has it that shooting is kind of important.
After hovering around the bottom five of half-court offense and three-point efficiency, the Portland Trail Blazers did the only thing they could reasonably do: trade the sole player on the roster with any real spacing gravity (Anfernee Simons) for a 35-year-old defense-first guard who just posted his lowest clip from deep since he was a member of the New Orleans Pelicantgetoutoftheirownways (Jrue Holiday).
Reuniting with Damian Lillard is great for the vibes. It is less great when he will miss the entire season with an Achilles injury and still be the shooter opposing teams most closely defend.
Also, what's the deal with backcourt reunions around these parts? The Blazers are recycling not only Lillard and franchise icon-for-a-nanosecond Holiday, but problematic guard dynamics.
A team with Dame, Jrue, Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe has the potential to get real awkward before Portland even has time to trade for Norman Powell. The February CJ McCollum buyout reunion is going to hit like a quad-shot of Panera Charged Lemonade.
At least the defense should be pretty feisty. Whether it can be Jerami Grant's-points-per-shot-attempt stingy remains to be seen. Deni Avidja should be good enough that the organization will view cobbling together a failed All-Star campaign on his behalf as a top priority.
The Yang Hansen experience will be electric. Ditto for Toumani Camara's defense. The Robert Williams III minutes will take place via 2K. This team is going to be the champion…of March.
Sacramento Kings
26 of 30
In a Nutshell: Even the AI in 2K wouldn't approve the trades they've made since last offseason.
What exactly is the Sacramento Kings' plan? Please don't answer. It's a hypothetical question. There is no plan.
This roster looks like it was cobbled together by Vivek Ranadive asking ChatGPT to build a roster that looks like it was built by Vivek Ranadive. Domantas Sabonis asked for a point guard. The Kings gave him Dennis Schröder and Russell Westbrook, successfully completing their collection of the anti-point guard's point guards.
In Sacramento's defense, it is really hard to find a point guard, particularly an All-Star point guard, who you aren't morally compelled to run over with a Mack truck after you fire your head coach and then trade for a chance to recreate Kings East (aka Chicago Bulls).
Worry not, though, because the Kings definitely redeemed themselves by definitely staging a thorough coaching search over which newly-minted lead-basketball executive Scott Perry, who definitely loves Zach LaVine by the way, definitely had control. And they definitely aren't going to botch their future with Keegan Murray, who they definitely don't continue to marginalize on offense.
It is also definitely OK that their backup-big rotation will lean on some combination of Isaac Jones, Maxime Raynaud, too much Drew Eubanks and the ghost of Dario Šarić and is definitely good enough to prevent them from dealing for Nikola Vučević. They are also definitely going to win the inevitable Keon Ellis-for-two-protected-second-picks trade they strike in December.
Championship hopes? The Kings should strive to give fans a reason to attend games at Golden 1 Center without paper bags covering their faces.
San Antonio Spurs
27 of 30
In a Nutshell: Victor Wembanyama failed to recruit free agents from the cosmos.
Trading for De'Aaron Fox ahead of last February's deadline seemingly set the stage for a transformative San Antonio Spurs offseason. So much for that.
Everything is being slung upon the shoulders of Victor Wembanyama following a summer in which he practiced Kung Fu, meditated, learned the "sport at its essence" and potentially even mastered the mystic arts alongside Tibetan sorcerers. His visit to NASA included riding in a lunar rover, but apparently zero interstellar pitches to free agents from his home planet.
The temptation to assume the "Through Wemby, all things are possible" stance is real. He is the answer to all of the Spurs' questions, even when it doesn't make sense.
San Antonio employs a quartet of point guards with questionable jumpers? Wemby. The roster doesn't really feature any wings who can dribble? Wemby. The offense wants for a pass-first floor general or even just an A or A-minus passer? Wemby. The Oklahoma City Thunder exist? Wemby. The Spurs cast the same-sized net as the Sacramento Kings in their coaching search? Wemby.
None of this is to say San Antonio should've gone nuclear over the offseason. Moving the No. 2 pick or De'Aaron Fox just because that No. 2 pick was earmarked for Dylan Harper would have been malpractice.
But the experiments this team is running, from Wembanyama to guards galore on down, lend themselves to a more gradual timeline. There isn't an offseason regiment under our sun or someone else's that could have strengthened Wemby's back enough to carry this roster into full-blown title contention.
Toronto Raptors
28 of 30
In a Nutshell: Seeing the theory of this roster requires a prescription.
Parting ways with team president Masai Ujiri is a microcosm of the Toronto Raptors' direction. The optics of showing him the door after navigating the draft like they didn't know who was already on their roster are quite poor. Changing virtually nothing about the team or its bloated payroll following his exit looks even worse.
Was Ujiri fired over power? Money? Or because he doesn't have a doctorate in fitting square pegs into roundholes?
Paying Brandon Ingram large sums of cash to work alongside a smattering of ball-dominant fringe-negative shooters is on the verge of becoming the "But maybe it'll work for us" meme. The "We haven't seen enough of the main lineups with Immanuel Quickley" trope is doing almost as much heavy lifting as "It's not Scottie Barnes' fault he's never scored with above-average efficiency" rallying cry.
The fate of the offense hinges too much on core players fighting their natural impulses, Gradey Dick peaking for more than 21 games and Sandro Mamukelashvili being able to play north of 12 minutes a night.
Maybe if the Larry O'Brien Trophy was shaped like Jakob Poeltl's silhouette, the Raptors would be more intent on locking it down. Instead, they've assembled yet another roster capable of being the league's best "30-something win team that could have actually been a mid-to-late-40s win team had more things broken its way and half the Eastern Conference closed up shop after Valentine's Day."
Utah Jazz
29 of 30
In a Nutshell: Internally, they refer to "wins" as "unhappy accidents."
The charitable interpretation of the Utah Jazz's coming season is that they're on a fact-finding mission. The cold, hard, unassailable truth is they're toeing the line of haphazardly sucking.
Three seasons post-teardown, the Jazz have no perma-cornerstone of which to speak. Their best player (Lauri Markkanen) is already being fitted for other teams' jerseys by national pundits and, if we're being honest, probably his own front office. Their second-best player (Walker Kessler) is pissed off that they won't extend him. Their third-best player is most likely Ace Bailey, who has yet to make his NBA debut, and who may have preferred to land with the Washington Wizards.
Don't get yourself started on the point guard situation. Keyonte George looks the part for possessions at a time. Isaiah Collier can get downhill and really pass. Just don't ask him to do anything else. Walter Clayton Jr. could be the third-oldest player on the team by season's end. Meld all of their skill sets together, and Utah might have something like the league's 23rd-best floor general.
This defense is going to blow. Again. The Jazz's best on-ball defender is Taylor Hendricks, who's working his way back from a broken leg. Their second-best on-ball defender is between Kyle Anderson and the other team's worst ball-handler.
Fewer airballs counts as a Cody Williams breakout. Kyle Filipowski has infinite range on his jumper but zero positional range. Brice Sensabaugh spits fire on offense and lays traffic cone-shaped eggs on defense.
Having Anderson, Georges Niang and Kevin Love to chaperone the kids is solid. They might just help the Jazz get into their offense faster after grabbing rebounds. Having Jusuf Nurkić as a mentor is a recipe for drawing head coach Will Hardy's resignation.
This team is deeply unserious. For a fourth straight year, any wins they collect will come on accident.
Washington Wizards
30 of 30
In a Nutshell: They are the jack-of-all-trades of rebuilds.
The technical phrase for what the Washington Wizards have is "a lotta dudes"—plenty of worthwhile fliers, just no one worthy of being deemed The Guy.
It could be Bilal Coulibaly, if you don't care about offensive efficiency. It could be Alex Sarr, if you're into Deandre Ayton-meets-Trendon Watford types on offense. It could be Tre Johnson, if you're into better-shooting Cam Thomases.
It could be Cam Whitmore, if you're a member of the Whitmore family tree updating his Wikipedia page. It could even be Marvin Bagley, if you're Vlade Divac circa 2018.
High-character veterans like CJ McCollum and Khris Middleton look wildly out of place, but could prove essential. Head coach Brian Keefe so far profiles as the lightly flavored oatmeal of Scott Brookses. Anthony Gill may play a larger role in maintaining order and fomenting growth.
Putting together a roster with so many names deserving of playing time is admirable. And finagling the cap sheet so the team can flirt with nine figures' worth of space next summer shows forethought. Both may also be grounds for Wizards governor Ted Leonsis to short circuit the long view in favor of sending an 11-seed-sized message to the rest of the Eastern Conference by the trade deadline.
Regardless, the Wizards need around 34 wins to enter the play-in mix. Whether they're trying or tanking, they're built to get roughly halfway there.
Dan Favale is a National NBA Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Bluesky (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.
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