Expert CFB Betting Locks for Oregon vs. Indiana and Week 7's Biggest Games
Well, it finally happened. We had a losing week.
For the first time in a long time—more than a full calendar month—we tasted failure in picking college football games against the spread.
We didn't like it, and we don't wish to do it again anytime soon. No real bad beats to blame; just an off week.
With a massive card on tap and many games to pick from, we're fully recuperated and ready to roll. Did we get a little too comfortable? Perhaps.
Regardless, we're primed to dip back into a winning week once again. And with the season settling in and fall weather on the doorstep, we're happy where we are at.
So, let's not waste any additional words. Back to winners.
Last Week's Record: 3-7
Year to Date: 32-28-1
Oregon vs. Indiana (Under 55.5)
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We begin with a total, which is not a place we often begin. It might feel even stranger when you consider that both teams have Heisman hopefuls and contenders playing quarterback.
Both teams, however, also have defenses ranked in the top six in scoring defenses, which is an important distinction.
For as much offensive firepower as both programs have on their roster—headlined by QBs Dante Moore and Fernando Mendoza—both are fundamentally sound on the other side of the ball.
Indiana is getting some respect from the oddsmakers with this spread, which feels meaningful. For the Hoosiers to compete, they will likely need to win a closer, ugly game.
While this won't necessarily be ugly, it will feature far less points than one might expect. Both offenses will be content to play ball control, which means the clock will run. It also means that the opportunities to score will be less than optics might expect.
Oregon wins, under wins.
The Pick: Oregon (Under 55.5)
Auburn (+3.5) vs. Georgia
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If we're being completely honest, this one has been on our radar for a few weeks now, although it's been on the radar for different reasons.
When early spreads started to appear—and they were small just like this one—we couldn't help but take note. Now, we're taking action.
The good news for Auburn? That would be the defense. It is one of the best in the sport, and it has become this despite the offense's deep issues. For those curious, that would be the not-so-great news.
No team in college football has allowed more sacks, with QB Jackson Arnold regularly holding the ball far too long. This, unquestionably, is a concern. We won't rehash some of the old wounds and money Auburn has cost us; those days are behind us.
Still, the Tigers have given pretty much everyone a game, looking and playing a lot like the Florida Gators, a program coming off a marquee win a week ago.
The oddsmakers don't seem all that impressed with Georgia, and we're following their lead. Auburn pulls off a mild upset with a far-reaching impact.
The Pick: Auburn (+3.5)
Colorado (+3) vs. Iowa State
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Speaking of fascinating lines, enter Colorado-Iowa State.
The Cyclones are no longer unbeaten, falling to Cincinnati on Saturday. The most concerning takeaway to emerge from this game was undoubtedly the rush defense, which allowed 260 yards of rushing and three touchdowns.
Another trend that stayed true was struggling on the road. Iowa State nearly lost to Arkansas State on the road earlier this year. Last week, they couldn't avoid defeat.
Playing at Colorado will be another tall task, even if the Buffaloes have lost three of their last four games. Two of those losses came to BYU and TCU—two very capable teams. And although the Buffs are 2-4, the spread against a ranked team feels small.
QB Kaidon Salter has played well in spurts, although three interceptions last week proved to be costly. We've seen Deion Sanders already make tweaks at that position, so perhaps some changes are coming.
Either way, we're not budging on this. Iowa State, coming off a difficult defeat, losses another.
The Pick: Colorado (+3)
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Utah (-5.5) vs. Arizona State
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The college season is essentially a series of chapters. For Utah, the first chapters were superb. We saw a revitalized offense, led by transfer QB Devon Dampier, dazzle from the start.
Then, the team stumbled at home to Texas Tech, albeit an extremely talented Texas Tech. And, as we often do, we really stopped caring.
This week, however, is the kind of week that will force us to care again. The Utes are back at home, and the only loss of the season feels like a distant memory. Despite the fact that Arizona State is ranked, Utah has been penciled in as a decent-sized favorite.
For the Sun Devils, the season has been one filled with close games. In fact, they have won consecutive football games by a score of 27-24.
It doesn't feel like the same dominant team from a season ago, although QB Sam Leavitt still produces and head coach Kenny Dillingham will have his team ready. It just won't be enough.
Utah, revamped offense and all, will take advantage of one of the best environments in football.
The Pick: Utah (+5.5)
Texas A&M (-7.5) vs. Florida
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Billy Napier, well done. Let's start there.
For the season in a row, Florida's head coach delivered a win when he needed it most, cooling the hot seat for another week. Last year Napier didn't just deliver one positive outcome; he strung a series of them together. He'll attempt to do the same thing here, although doing so won't be easy.
Florida played a team with a broken offense last week, and it did so at home. This week, the Gators will hit the road and take on Marcel Reed, one of the sport's most explosive players.
The Florida defense has the talent to keep this within striking for a while. It's a formula that has played out a handful of times already this year. On the road, the Gators are 0-2. They have scored 17 combined points in those two games.
Translation? This is going to be another ugly football game, which the Aggies are happy to deliver. They've won allowing 40 points. They have won defensive struggles. They will win here, and they will do so by double digits.
The Pick: Texas A&M (-7.5)
Other Games on the Card
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Michigan State (-8.5) vs. UCLA
What a football hangover this could be. After beating Penn State for its first win of the year, UCLA heads thousands of miles from home to Michigan State. Look for Sparty to roll.
Oregon State (+2.5) vs. Wake Forest
Let me get this straight. The 0-5 team is getting less than a field goal against a program coming off a quality road win? This line absolutely stinks, and the Beavers are poised to finally get a victory.
Arizona (+1.5) vs. BYU
Just a few short weeks ago, BYU needed late-game heroics to conquer Colorado on the road. A few weeks later, and it wouldn't be shocking to see Arizona find success at home against an unbeaten team.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
