Ranking Framber Valdez and the Top Starting Pitchers of 2025-26 MLB Free-Agent Class
You know who will definitely get a Major League deal this winter? 42-year-old Justin Verlander, who posted a 2.99 ERA over the course of 14 starts after the All-Star Break for the San Francisco Giants
With 266 career wins, Verlander is probably too far away from 300 to realistically become the first pitcher to reach that milestone since Randy Johnson did so in 2009. But the three-time AL Cy young Award winner seems to genuinely enjoy pitching still, and what he showed over the second half will allow him to do that.
Verlander, though, just missed cracking this countdown, as did Zach Eflin, Jordan Montgomery, Griffin Canning and Tomoyuki Sugano, among others. Here are the top 10 starting pitchers of the upcoming free-agent class.
10. Chris Bassitt
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2025 Stats: 11-9, 3.96 ERA, 4.01 FIP, 166 SO, 2.4 WAR, 170.1 IP
Age in 2026: 37
Eligible for Qualifying Offer? No
Chris Bassit bounced back from a disappointing 2024 season to put together a strong final season of his three-year, $63 million deal with the Toronto Blue Jays.
Because Bassitt will turn 37 in February, he may be limited to a one-year deal at this stage of his career. But there will be teams happy to pay him handsomely for a year. He's logged 170 or more innings in four consecutive seasons, and because he has already received a qualifying offer previously, the Blue Jays can't give him one again this winter. So unlike some of the other names on this list, any team who signs Bassitt won't have to give up draft-pick compensation to sign him.
One would think the AL East Champion Blue Jays would be at the front of the line for Bassitt this offseason, but there will definitely be a bunch of other teams interested in him.
9. Merrill Kelly
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2025 Stats: 12-9, 3.52 ERA, 3.76 FIP, 167 SO, 3.1 WAR, 184 IP
Age in 2026: 37
Eligible for Qualifying Offer? No
Just about everything that we said above about Bassitt is also true for Kelly, and it will be interesting to see which of the two is valued higher by teams in the market for a veteran middle-of-the-rotation arm.
Kelly wasn't great after a midseason trade to the Rangers—4.23 ERA over 10 outings—but his full-season numbers between Texas and the Arizona Diamondbacks are still very good.
Not only was Kelly excellent for the Diamondbacks in their run to the World Series in 2023, but he's experienced just about everything you possibly can as a player who spent four seasons in South Korea. Not only would he help to stabilize a rotation, but he's someone with a wealth of experience that would rub off positively on younger arms.
8. Lucas Giolito
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2025 Stats: 10-4, 3.41 ERA, 4.17 FIP, 121 SO, 2.0 WAR, 145 IP
Age in 2026: 31
Eligible for Qualifying Offer? Yes
We didn't put players with options that are sure to be exercised—like Chris Sale and Freddy Peralta—on this list. Giolito has a mutual $19 million option for 2025, and both the pitcher and the Boston Red Sox could go either way on that.
The most likely scenario is that Giolito declines the option, because if he does, the Red Sox could very well extend a one-year qualifying offer to him, which would pay him around $22 million. Again, it's possible he takes that. It's also possible he declines it, or even that the Red Sox don't extend it to him. There are a lot of moving parts here.
If Giolito gets to the open market, he pitched very well after missing the entirety of the 2024 season after undergoing an internal brace procedure on his right elbow. Giolito wasn't available for what turned out to be a brief postseason run with the Red Sox because his elbow flared up. Ultimately, pretty much all of this is contingent on him being healthy heading into the offseason.
Giolito, though, was once a workhorse for the Chicago White Sox. If a team feels good about his health as he moves further away from the aforementioned elbow surgery, he could get a multi-year deal in free agency. With that said, he might be better off taking the qualifying offer, if he has that option.
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7. Tyler Mahle
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2025 Stats: 6-4, 2.18 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 66 SO, 1.9 WAR, 86.2 IP
Age in 2026: 31
Eligible for Qualifying Offer? Yes
Tyler Mahle is a difficult free agent to figure out because he was dominant when he pitched for the Texas Rangers in 2025, his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. But he only made 16 starts this season, missing more than two months with shoulder fatigue.
In fact, Mahle has only ever made more than 25 starts once in his career, tossing 180 innings for the Cincinnati Reds in 2021. If you sign him expecting 33 starts a year, you'll probably be disappointed. However, if you think he can make 23 starts a year at a really high level, there's certainly value in that.
With president of baseball operations Chris Young acknowledging that Texas has "financial uncertainty" in 2026, it feels unlikely they'll extend a qualifying offer to Mahle, who would likely accept it. Not being saddled with a QO will make him more attractive as a free agent, and could even help him to get multiple years.
6. Brandon Woodruff
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2025 Stats: 7-2, 3.20 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 83 SO, 1.8 WAR, 64.2 IP
Age in 2026: 33
Eligible for Qualifying Offer? Yes
Brandon Woodruff has some similarities to Mahle. Woodruff has a 2.73 ERA since the start of the 2023 season. The problem? He's made just 23 starts over that period, missing the entirety of 2024 recovering from right shoulder surgery.
Woodruff was tremendous when he finally returned to the mound in July of this season, and would have had some real momentum heading into free agency if he had stayed healthy through the end of the Milwaukee Brewers' season.
Unfortunately, a right lat strain landed him back on the injured list in the final days of the regular season, and cost him a chance to be on the NLDS roster for the Crew. So it's going to be hard to bank on his health moving forward.
Because of that, the small-budget Brewers likely won't give him a qualifying offer, because he would probably take it. He's going to be an interesting free agent, because he's had stretches in his career where he's pitched like an ace. But he's likely looking at an incentive-laden one-year deal.
5. Michael King
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2025 Stats: 5-3, 3.44 ERA, 4.42 FIP, 76 SO, 0.8 WAR, 73.1 IP
Age in 2026: 31
Eligible for Qualifying Offer? Yes
Michael King dazzled for the Padres in 2024 after being acquired from the New York Yankees in the Juan Soto deal. In his first season in San Diego, King finished seventh in NL Cy Young Award voting after posting a 2.95 ERA and 201 strikeouts over 173.2 innings pitched.
King's contract year of 2025 didn't go nearly as well, as he was limited to just 15 starts because of right shoulder and left knee inflammation. His 4.26 expected ERA and 4.42 FIP don't paint a great picture of what he did when he was on the mound this season.
When considering extending a qualifying offer to King, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and the Padres will have to decide if they are comfortable with the righty potentially accepting the $22 million for 2026.
4. Zac Gallen
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2025 Stats: 13-15, 4.83 ERA, 4.51 FIP, 175 strikeouts, 1.1 WAR, 192 IP
Age in 2026: 30
Eligible for Qualifying Offer? Yes
Zac Gallen had a disastrous contract year—there's no other way to put it.
However, between 2022 and 2024, Gallen pitched like an ace, posting the seventh-best WAR (12.2) over that period among all starting pitchers, per FanGraphs. Gallen is still only 30 years old, so if he gets to free agency, there will be teams who think they can get him at a relative discount and help him rediscover his front-of-the-rotation form.
The Diamondbacks not trading Gallen at the deadline was a pretty good indication that they plan to extend the qualifying offer to him. He could very well accept the $22 million offer, try to bounce back in 2026 and enter free agency next offseason after a better season and not saddled with a QO. Arizona has lots of questions with their pitching heading into next season, so they may not mind if he accepts the QO and stays in Phoenix.
Alternatively, Gallen could decline the QO and test free agency. He's not going to do better than $22 million in 2026, but he could top that in total guarantees on a multi-year deal that includes an early opt-out clause.
3. Ranger Suárez
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2025 Stats: 12-8, 3.20 ERA, 3.21 FIP, 151 SO, 4.0 WAR, 157.1 IP
Age in 2026: 30
Eligible for Qualifying Offer? Yes
Ranger Suárez is going to be all over the board depending upon what team you are.
On one hand, he's got a 3.38 career ERA, having shined both as a starter and a reliever during parts of eight seasons with the Philadelphia Phillies. Suárez has an aura to him, he's effortlessly cool, and about as good of a fielding pitcher as you'll see.
On the other hand, Suárez has been on the injured list in three of the last four seasons for a back-related ailment. He's never been reliant on throwing hard, but it's nonetheless concerning from a long-term perspective that his average fastball velocity dipped to 91.3 mph this season, down from 93.4 just two seasons ago. The Phillies are also certain to give him a qualifying offer.
Suárez is a really good pitcher, and his energy is infectious. But he hired Scott Boras last winter, so he'll likely be looking for a lucrative deal of at least five years. There's enough red flags with him that it isn't hard to imagine him going the way of Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Nick Pivetta in recent years and having to wait into Spring Training to sign.
2. Dylan Cease
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2025 Stats: 8-12, 4.55 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 215 SO, 3.4 WAR, 168 IP
Age in 2026: 30
Eligible for Qualifying Offer? Yes
Dylan Cease is on a little bit of an every-other-year cycle.
He finished second in AL Cy Young Award voting as a member of the Chicago White Sox in 2022, and fourth in NL Cy Young Award as a member of the San Diego Padres in 2025. Unfortunately for him, he has been much more pedestrian in the odd years, including posting a 4.55 ERA during a disappointing contract year.
With that said, even in a down year, Cease still logged 168 innings pitched and led baseball with an 11.9 K/9. His 3.46 expected ERA and 3.56 FIP also suggest he was better than his ERA would lead you to believe.
In an era where people chase pitchers who can generates swings and misses, there will be teams who covet Cease, who will surely reject the qualifying offer when the Padres extend it to him. There's definitely a case to be made for him signing for four or more seasons, but getting a opt-out clause after the first season or two that allows him to return to free agency if he has more momentum going onto the market in a future year.
1. Framber Valdez
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2025 Stats: 13-11, 3.66 ERA, 3.38 FIP, 187 strikeouts, 4.0 WAR, 192 IP
Age in 2026: 32
Eligible for Qualifying Offer? Yes
Since the start of the 2022 season, Framber Valdez has thrown at least 175 innings in every campaign, while posting a 16.5 WAR, the fifth-best mark over that period, per FanGraphs. From that perspective, the lefty should be coveted in free agency.
However, Valdez posted a 4.70 ERA in 16 starts after the All-Star Break. He also had the bizarre incident in September where he seemingly crossed up catcher César Salazar on purpose:
So it was a bizarre finish to the season in Houston, and based both on that and how they've generally operated with big-money pitchers, it does kind of feel like the Astros will extend a qualifying offer to Valdez and then let him walk in free agency.
Whether it's the Giants, Orioles, Mets or another pitching-needy team, Valdez should get a lucrative four or five-year deal in free agency.
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