Expert CFB Locks for Florida State vs. Miami and Week 6's Biggest Games
With October underway and cooler weather arriving, college football's stakes rise ever higher after a strong and eventful September.
The football was spectacular, and the picks were solid. If you're wondering how many losing weeks we had last month, well, the answer is zero.
We've had a winning record the last four weeks, even though Week 5 was a mixed bag. We were all over Virginia and Alabama. We also liked Arkansas against Notre Dame, and the head coach of that team was relieved of his duties on Saturday because the game went that bad.
Hey, it happens.
Still, we're on a roll, and we're looking to maintain that momentum into October. While Week 6 doesn't have the same level of marquee games on deck, it has plenty of reasons to get excited.
Here's to another winning week.
Last Week's Record: 5-4
Year to Date: 29-21-1
Florida State (+4.5) vs. Miami
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In college football, we love nothing more than a quality overreaction.
We do it every week, regardless of team or outcome. We do it with good teams and bad, and we're going to do it with Florida State, a team we're still trying to figure out.
Yes, FSU lost to Virginia. We told you this could happen, and it did. That doesn't necessarily mean the Seminoles are a bad team, and this point spread—which is probably smaller than many thought it would be—implies that.
Consider Miami will play its first official road game this season, which is precisely where Florida State stumbled last week. While the Hurricanes feel like a more talented team in many areas, playing on the road is a much different beast.
And, if we're being honest, Miami didn't exactly dazzle the last time out against Florida. Quarterback Carson Beck looked a bit out of sorts, and the Hurricanes were a bit lackluster.
With that in mind, don't be shocked when Florida State covers and potentially wins outright.
The Pick: Florida State (+4.5)
Florida (+7) vs. Texas
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Ask for the Florida Gators, and they shall appear.
The Florida Gators return to center stage. While their recent performances haven't inspired confidence, we're backing them for Week 6.
A well-timed bye week came after the Gators fell to 1-3, losing an ugly game to Miami following ugly losses to LSU and South Florida. It's worth noting, however, that Billy Napier's team isn't exactly getting dominated.
Though the Gators have found novel ways to lose, they remain competitive enough to cover the spread against a Texas squad still searching for identity.
Sure, the Longhorns defense is superb. But what has this team done of late to make you think all of their problems are solved? Home wins against San Jose State, UTEP and San Jose State don't tell us much, and we still don't know what to expect from Arch Manning at QB.
Judging by the total in this game, which is hovering in the low 40s, we're expecting it to be quite ugly. It's hard to argue with that.
Once again, Florida will keep it close. And for as bad as things have been, the Gators feel very alive.
The Pick: Florida (+7)
Cincinnati (-1.5) vs. Iowa State
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Let's make something clear: Although Iowa State is ranked higher, a Cincinnati win would not qualify as an upset assuming the Bearcats remain the favorite.
Follow the spread, not the ranking. OK, mini rant over.
Yes, the nation's No. 14-ranked team, coming off a massive victory over Arizona, is an underdog on the road against unranked Cincinnati. It's a fascinating spread between two very capable teams, although the public is destined to back the team with a number next to it.
The Cyclones were impressive against Arizona, although injuries were a cause for concern. Defensive back Jeremiah Cooper is out for the year, and Iowa State will head into this week banged up.
Cincinnati delivered a massive win over Kansas on the road, moving to 3-1. Since losing to Nebraska in the opener, the team has responded nicely. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby accounted for more than 400 yards last game, and he's a threat against Iowa State with his arm and legs.
A win here, and the Bearcats are right back in the Big 12 mix. The oddsmakers seem to be confident in the prospects of a win, and so are we.
The Pick: Cincinnati (-1.5)
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Baylor (-6.5) vs. Kansas State
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Thank you, Kansas State.
We'll talk about why we're fading the Wildcats this week in a moment, but let's start with the positive. We picked K-State to cover the spread against UCF, and the team did just that. Quarterback Avery Johnson was excellent, and all was right for one week.
Now, let's talk about this week. Despite the victory, Kansas State is a sizable underdog against Baylor.
The Bears are coming off a 45-27 win over Oklahoma State. In that game, Baylor jumped out to a slow start. Soon after, quarterback Sawyer Robertson took over, finishing with nearly 400 yards passing and five touchdowns.
In many ways, he is the difference. Johnson is a capable athlete, but Robertson is quietly having one of the most dominant seasons at the position. He leads the nation in passing touchdowns, and he's going up against the nation's No. 92-ranked passing defense.
In short, this seems less than optimal. Throw in the fact that K-State is playing on the road, and the immediate future doesn't look so bright.
Baylor wins, and the Bears do so by double digits.
The Pick: Baylor (-6.5)
Texas A&M (-14) vs. Mississippi State
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Given how well Mississippi State has played to start the season, this spread seems a bit robust.
Indeed, the Bulldogs were ready for Tennessee, although an exciting (and at times weird) game went in the Vols' favor. At 4-1, with a win over Arizona State in hand, however, Mississippi State has started the year as well as the program could have hoped.
The same can be said about Texas A&M, although it didn't feel that way at times against Auburn last week. The Aggies delivered a 16-10 win that never felt quite comfortable, although the Tigers deserve plenty of credit as well.
Perhaps most noteworthy for A&M is the fact that it has now beaten quality teams with both offense and defense, and that's precisely what we will get this week.
For Mississippi State, this could be less than ideal. The lone road game the Bulldogs played came during Week 1 came against Southern Miss, and it wasn't exactly a dominating showing. Playing at Texas A&M at night, with a brutal stretch of schedule set to begin, different results could soon follow.
You will be tempted to take the points. After all, there's a lot of them. Don't fall for it.
The Pick: Texas A&M (-14)
Other Games on the Card
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Cal (+3) vs. Duke
After two weeks on the road, Cal comes home to take on a surging Duke team in a conference game. Yes, this is a conference game. Freshman QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is a good one, and he should show out here.
Virginia Tech (-6.5) vs. Wake Forest
Wake Forest nearly upset Georgia Tech last week, although this road trip has unbelievable letdown potential. While Virginia Tech is operating with an interim head coach on the sideline, it could take advantage of timing in this spot.
Louisville (-6.5) vs. Virginia
Speaking of potential letdowns, enter Virginia. While Louisville wasn't crisp at Pittsburgh last week, this is a fascinating opportunity to take on a team coming off a tremendous high. Look for the Cardinals to roll.
Wyoming (+3.5) vs. UNLV
We've bet with UNLV, we've faded UNLV and now we're fading UNLV again. Traveling to Wyoming should present an interesting challenging for a team that, while still unbeaten, has shown some cracks over the past few games.
Purdue (+9.5) vs. Illinois
Purdue, known for home upsets, could create havoc against Illinois this week. Illinois, fresh off a massive win over USC, will play a sleepy lunch Saturday game on the road. Look out.
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