Stock Watch for 2025 College Football Playoff Contenders Heading into Week 5
One month into the 2025 season, and the College Football Playoff conversation has shifted in a few significant ways.
Clemson, for example, began the campaign as a top pick to reach the CFP. Notre Dame attracted plenty of attention, too. September hasn't even finished, and both programs are fighting for their postseason lives.
On the other hand, a few others—such as Texas Tech—have surged into the discussion with an impressive start to 2025.
The following picks are subjective but compare the preseason consensus with early results, along with a look at future schedules.
Stock Up: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
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The opening month of the season was going to tell us plenty about Georgia Tech, which traveled to Colorado in Week 1 and hosted Clemson in Week 3.
And the Jackets went 2-for-2.
Georgia Tech added comfortable wins over Gardner-Webb and Temple, bringing its record to 4-0. With Miami, Florida State, Louisville, and SMU absent from the regular-season schedule, Georgia is the only currently ranked foe left.
Now, that's a bit of a double-edged sword. Georgia Tech has a razor-thin margin for error because its strength of schedule will be relatively low.
As SMU showed in 2024, though, an 11-1 record with a trip to the ACC Championship Game might be enough to sneak into the CFP.
Georgia Tech absolutely has that upside.
Stock Down: Notre Dame Fighting Irish
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Notre Dame, meanwhile, is facing an uphill climb.
Sure, it was merely a three-point loss at Miami and a one-point setback at home against Texas A&M. AP Top 25 voters, for example, have continued to keep the Irish in the poll despite their 1-2 record. I wouldn't be surprised if the CFP selection committee pulls out the ol' "quality loss" designation, too.
The short version: Notre Dame, should it run the table and finish 10-2, will likely be included in the playoff, according to my tin-foil hat.
But at 9-3? That's a different story.
Most of Notre Dame's upcoming games are against solid teams, but none are currently top-ranked. The lone exception could be USC, though it faces Illinois and Michigan before meeting the Irish.
Notre Dame's resume, barring a surprise ascent from teams like North Carolina State or Pitt, will be unspectacular at best.
Stock Up: Texas Tech Red Raiders
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Considering how much money the program sunk into the transfer portal during the offseason, this was the only acceptable start.
Texas Tech waltzed to a 3-0 record with victories over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Kent State and Oregon State. We anticipated that. However, the Red Raiders then traveled to Utah for a Top 25 showdown at elevation.
Thanks to a fourth-quarter surge, Tech won 34-10.
As a result, the Red Raiders are 4-0 and building a bandwagon. The offense has lived up to its potential as a high-scoring unit, and the defense—with eight transfers in key roles—has excelled early on.
Sustaining that balance is no easy task, of course, and the competition level will be rising substantially. Tech has eight remaining games with Big 12 opponents.
Still, the Red Raiders hardly could have planned out a better September.
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Down: Kansas State Wildcats
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Kansas State is really testing the extent of patience.
After falling to Iowa State, the Wildcats barely beat FCS school North Dakota, stunningly lost to Army and dropped a tight game at Arizona.
From a CFP at-large perspective, K-State is basically done. It's hard to imagine a three-loss resume with a setback to Army is redeemable.
In terms of the Big 12 race, Kansas State's 1-3 record is less damaging than it seems. Its recent loss to Arizona was a nonconference game, scheduled before Arizona's move from the Pac-12.
In theory, Kansas State could rattle off eight consecutive wins and reach the CFP by virtue of winning the Big 12 Championship Game.
Still, for a program that entered 2025 as a front-runner in the conference, that's a tough reality to face in late September.
Stock Up: Indiana Hoosiers
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Last season, a transfer-infused Indiana roster capitalized on a favorable schedule and crashed the CFP party. Curt Cignetti worked a minor miracle at a program that had never before won 10 games in a season.
What do we say if the Hoosiers do it again?
Indiana cruised past an easy nonconference slate, so it's really only played one notable game. On that night, though, IU steamrolled Illinois 63-10. That might be the single-most impressive team performance so far.
In the aftermath, recalibrating expectations for the Hoosiers has become necessary. They looked like a Top 25 squad in the preseason, but their dominant performance suggests they may be even better.
Yes, there are obstacles looming. Indiana plays at Iowa and Oregon over the next three weeks, and a trip to Penn State awaits in November. The difficulty of the schedule is much higher in 2025.
But if that version of the Hoosiers shows up regularly, they're a 10-win threat. Knock off Oregon or Penn State in that 10, and IU is presumably a CFP lock.
Stock Down: Clemson Tigers
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Being the obvious answer does not make it any less correct.
As Dabo Swinney said, Clemson has been a tremendous program lately. Clearly the powerhouse of the ACC, it has notched 10-plus victories in 14 of the last 15 seasons—and went 9-4 in the outlier year.
The idea of firing him, quite frankly, is lunacy. About 95 percent of other FBS schools would love to have Clemson's last 15 years.
At the same time, Clemson's disappointing season calls for serious reflection. Swinney's reluctance to embrace the transfer portal may be hurting the program, especially given the Tigers' considerable resources.
That exact conversation isn't a shock. Any number of fans or analysts have pointed to the underlying need for changes at Clemson.
It being the main story in September, however, is a major surprise.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
