Every NHL Team's Worst-Case Scenario for 2025-26 Season
Now that the preseason is officially underway, the start of the 2025-26 NHL regular season is just around the corner.
Whether your expectation for your team is a Stanley Cup or just to see some sort of improvement from the year before, there is probably at least some level of optimism with the start of a new season. But sometimes it only takes one thing going wrong to ruin the whole season.
So let's take a quick look around the league at the worst-case scenario for each NHL team this season.
It is essential to note that these are not predictions for what will happen this season. That can not be emphasized enough. These are simply the worst-case scenarios for each team that COULD happen and potentially ruin the season on the ice.
Anaheim Ducks: Lack of Team (and Individual) Progress
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The Ducks' playoff drought is now seven years long, and while there may not be high expectations for them to snap that streak this season, it is time for them to start making significant improvements and getting closer to achieving their goal.
There is a very young core of talent here that is promising, and it's time for many of them to take the next step forward.
If the Ducks miss the playoffs this season, it's probably not a huge disappointment given the preseason expectations. Especially if some young players (Leo Carlsson, for example) really take big strides and the team shows across-the-board improvement.
But if they miss the playoffs with another losing record, and don't see much individual progress, then the whole season will have been a waste of everybody's time.
Boston Bruins: Jeremy Swayman Doesn't Bounce Back
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There's not a lot to like about this Bruins team on paper. David Pastrnak is great. Charlie McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm should be healthier and improve the defense after both of them missed most of the 2024-25 season. Maybe Morgan Geekie shows that last season was not a fluke.
But that's pretty much where the positives and reasons for optimism stop.
They still lack scoring depth, they still do not have a true No. 1 center, they do not have a ton of young talent and the roster seems to have settled into a state of mediocrity. If they are going to compete for the playoffs, they are going to need starting goalie Jeremy Swayman to bounce back from a disappointing performance a year ago and play like the No. 1 goalie the Bruins are paying him to be.
And that's where the worst-case scenario comes in -- if Swayman doesn't bounce back.
If he doesn't bounce back, not only do the Bruins have little chance at the playoffs, but they also are going to have another major question mark on a roster that is already full of them and a potential albatross contract just two years into it. They need more from their big-money goalie.
Buffalo Sabres: No Changes Get Made
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Realistically speaking, this is not a playoff team.
It's essentially the same roster that failed (again) last season and extended the playoff drought to 14 years, minus the swaps of JJ Peterka for Michael Kesserling and Josh Doan.
That's probably not going to fix it.
The playoff drought is almost certainly going to extend to 15 years, and if (when) that happens, there will have to be some significant change to the organization.
A new general manager.
Another fire sale of the roster.
Ideally, a new owner, because the common denominator in this entire run of futility has been Terry Pegula.
If the Sabres fail again and don't do something drastic, then that would absolutely be the worst-case scenario.
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Calgary Flames: Dustin Wolf Regresses
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Projecting goalie performances is one of the hardest things to do in hockey, and it's especially hard when you have almost no body of work to go by. The Calgary Flames didn't really care about that when they signed goalie Dustin Wolf to a seven-year, $52 million extension this offseason after just one full season as a starter in the NHL.
It was an outstanding season, and his .910 save percentage was one of the biggest reasons the Flames were so close to a playoff spot.
But what if he doesn't perform at that level again?
He has excelled at every level of hockey, so there is some reason to believe it can be sustainable, but he's still a young goalie and there is always going to be some volatility to that.
If he regresses, the Flames' playoff chances will take a significant hit, and it will leave some doubt and questions about what type of goalie he is at the very beginning of a new, expensive contract.
Carolina Hurricanes: The Narrative Doesn't Change
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It's a safe bet that the Hurricanes will make the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and if recent history is any indication, they will likely win a series or two and have major championship aspirations.
But what if they fall short again in the exact same manner that they always do?
You know the story by now: Great regular season, strong early success in the playoffs against lower-tier playoff teams, and then shut down deeper in the playoffs against one of the small handful of teams that can match them in terms of talent.
While many teams would love to trade positions with the Hurricanes every year, there still needs to be an expectation and demand for them to break through the Eastern Conference Final and advance to the Stanley Cup Final.
They still have over $10 million in salary cap space and a clear desire to win. They need to change the narrative around what they are coming in as a playoff team, and that they possess the type of high-end talent that can win a championship.
Chicago Blackhawks: They Finish with the NHL's Worst Record
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This actually does seem pretty realistic, and it shouldn't be acceptable.
This roster features a number of young players and some promising talent, but it still lacks overall quality.
On paper, there might not be a worse roster in the NHL. Going into year three of Connor Bedard's career, that can not be acceptable.
They have to start surrounding their young cornerstone player with real NHL talent and start winning some more games. They won fewer games in Bedard's second season than they did the year before he arrived.
You can talk about how long rebuilds take all you want, but if you had told Blackhawks fans on draft day, 2023, that going into year three of Bedard's career, they would still be the worst team in hockey, I am not sure anybody would have been happy about that.
Colorado Avalanche: What if MacKenzie Blackwood's 2024-25 Was a Fluke?
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Goaltending has been something of an Achilles heel for the Avalanche in recent seasons (or at the very least a consistent question mark), and they managed to stumble upon a temporary solution last year with the addition of Mackenzie Blackwood.
They were so impressed with his play that they tried to turn him into a long-term solution by signing him to a five-year contract extension.
If Blackwood plays the way he did in Colorado a year ago (a .912 save percentage), it's a fair contract and fills an important position with a productive player.
However, that 2024-25 performance was also a significant outlier compared to his performance in his recent career before joining the Avalanche. If he regresses to that previous level, it not only limits the Avalanche's ceiling but also leaves them stuck with an expensive goalie who may or may not be very good.
Columbus Blue Jackets: Missed Opportunities
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Given their salary-cap space, as well as the trade assets they had at their disposal this offseason (two first-round picks, a deep and talented farm system), it seemed like the Blue Jackets were well-positioned for some big moves to help close the gap between them and the Eastern Conference playoff teams.
They didn't really make any big moves.
There are still a lot of reasons to be optimistic about the long-term outlook here (and even the shorter and medium-term outlook), but if they go into the season with more than $13 million in salary-cap space and don't fill it, and then end up missing the playoffs again, it would certainly lead to a lot of tough and valid questions about what they did this offseason.
Dallas Stars: Mikko Rantanen Doesn't Drive the Offense
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Mikko Rantanen has been a wildly productive player throughout his NHL career, but there is some question as to how much of that production was simply because he is an elite player or because he had an opportunity to spend a lot of time alongside Nathan MacKinnon (an even better player).
During his time in Colorado, Rantanen was never the go-to player on the offense and he was never really the player expected to be the best on the team.
That is going to change in Dallas, where he is not only the highest-paid player on the team, but also the most talented player on the team. They need him to show he can still produce at an elite level when he is the one driving the bus.
He showed flashes of that after his trade to Dallas last season, but his numbers after being traded away from Colorado never really matched what he did with the Avalanche.
If he doesn't do that, it would mean they paid a steep price (in terms of trade package and money) for a player that isn't meant to be "the guy" on a Stanley Cup contender.
Detroit Red Wings: Mediocrity Becomes Accepted
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One could argue that mediocrity has already been accepted here, but if the Red Wings fail to make the playoffs again or come close to doing so, and continue to give Steve Yzerman the freedom to remain patient, then there will be no getting around it: mediocrity will be king here.
The Red Wings haven't made the playoffs in a decade. They are six full seasons into Yzerman's rebuild. They still have $10 million in salary-cap space. They have done almost nothing to improve the roster and continue to rely on internal development of prospects that may not be as good as previously thought or believed to be.
If this season resembles the past few and they don't make any changes, they will be telling you that the status quo is good enough. It should not be good enough.
Edmonton Oilers: Connor McDavid Doesn't Sign a New Contract
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This has nothing to do with the on-ice results.
Everything that happens in Edmonton this season revolves around whether or not McDavid signs a new contract beyond this season. They could reach the Stanley Cup Final again, perhaps even win it, but if McDavid does not re-sign, it would be a brutal blow to an organization that has already lost the best player of their generation once before.
Getting him signed is the No. 1 priority and if they fail at that, the whole long-term outlook changes with no Plan B.
Because there is no Plan B.
Florida Panthers: They Run Out of Steam
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If you are a Panthers fan, you have seen one of the best four-year runs from any franchise in the modern NHL: Presidents' Trophy, Stanley Cup Final, Stanley Cup win, Stanley Cup win.
Nobody is going to have any sympathy for you if this season goes poorly for whatever reason. Nor should they.
And honestly, there isn't much reason for this season to go poorly, given the roster. The biggest obstacle Florida will be fighting is the fact that it has played a ton of hockey over the past four years, and eventually, that takes its toll on a roster.
Los Angeles Kings: They miss the playoffs
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I don't THINK the Kings are going to miss the playoffs. It's still a pretty good hockey team. But we are, again, just looking at worst-case scenarios.
And I do think there is a path for missing the postseason to happen here.
The offense is good, but not great.
Darcy Kuemper is pretty good in goal when he's on his game, but he's not one of the elite goalies that you can count on every year.
The defense was, and remains, the strength of this team. However, new general manager Ken Holland allowed Vladislav Gavrikov to leave in free agency, traded Jordan Spence, and replaced them with Brian Dumoulin and Cody Ceci. Those are ... uh ... big downgrades.
After losing in the playoffs -- to the same team -- four years in a row, there is an obvious push for this team to find playoff success. I'm not sure if this roster is better than any of the past four. That's not good. And it would be especially bad if they didn't even get to the first round.
Minnesota Wild: Kirill Kaprizov Doesn't Sign a New Contract
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This is a very similar situation to what the Oilers are dealing with, just simply on a slightly smaller scale.
Kaprizov is the best offensive player the Wild have ever seen, and when he's healthy, he's an MVP-level scorer and forward. If he were healthy a year ago, the Wild could have been a serious contender. They could still be one this season.
But if they can't get him re-signed, or if they potentially have to trade him as a result of that, it would be a pretty devastating blow to the team in both the short-term and long-term.
Montreal Canadiens: They Take a Step Backward
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Expectations are relatively high in Montreal this season, and there is no reason for them not to be high.
Not only do the Canadiens have a promising young core of talent in Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky and Lane Hutson, but they significantly added to it this offseason with the additions of Noah Dobson and Zac Bolduc. And that doesn't even take into account the potential that comes with a full season of Ivan Demidov.
The playoffs should not only be on their minds; they should be an expectation. Advancing should now be the goal.
The worst-case scenario here would be if a bunch of young players take a step backward or some regression sets in, and things do not develop as hoped.
Nashville Predators: They Continue to Have No Direction
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Barry Trotz was a great head coach in the NHL.
He has not been a great general manager.
He made a lot of big splash signings in the summer of 2024, but pretty much all of them flopped and now the roster has a bunch of aging, former stars with big contracts.
Unless everybody has bounce-back seasons at the same time, this is looking like another long year in Nashville, and even worse, another year with no real direction.
It's not a contender. It's not a rebuilding team. None of the recent roster moves seems to make any sense. They have found their way into the NHL's mushy middle, and that can be a difficult group to break out of. They need Trotz to establish a clear direction and set a realistic plan.
New Jersey Devils: Jack Hughes Gets Injured Again
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When Jack Hughes is healthy, the New Jersey Devils are generally a very good hockey team.
When he is injured, they tend to struggle.
The problem for Hughes and the Devils is that he tends to get injured and miss time. A lot of time. It happened again in 2024-25 and it ruined their chances for playoff success.
Keeping him healthy is the biggest X-factor for this team. Unfortunately, a lot of that comes down to luck.
New York Islanders: What if Ilya Sorokin Doesn't Get Back to his Elite Level?
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When Ilya Sorokin arrived in the NHL at the start of the 2020-21 season, he was immediately one of the best goalies in the league, and for his first three years, there was almost nobody better than him. He was the backbone of practically all of the Islanders' success and was a constant game-changer.
Between 2020-21 and 2022-23 his .924 save percentage was the second-best in the NHL, and he was routinely stopping 30-35 shots per night behind an overrated defense that wasn't as strong as we were led to believe. It was strong because the goalie never let anything get by him.
Over the past two years, however, his overall production has dropped off a little, and his .908 save percentage over that stretch puts him in the "slightly above average" category with the likes of Darcy Kuemper, Joseph Woll, Filip Gustavsson, Cam Talbot and Adin Hill. I'm not just pulling names out of a hat here; those are the goalies that have matched him in save percentage the past two seasons.
Don't get me wrong: that's not bad. You can win with that level of goaltending if the team around the goalie is good enough. But this team around Sorokin, at least in the short term, isn't good enough.
Suppose he has a third consecutive year with a sub-. 910 save percentage. That is a potential red flag for the Islanders. The Islanders have a lot of money invested in him to be a game-changer. If they are going to contend again soon, it would be helpful if he returns to that level of play.
New York Rangers: Igor Shesterkin is Human
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The New York Rangers made some significant moves this season by signing Vladislav Gavrikov to play on their top defense pair and also bringing in two-time Stanley Cup champion head coach Mike Sullivan. Those are big moves. They might make an impact.
But will they make enough of an impact to fix all of the Rangers' problems defensively and during 5-on-5 play?
I am not entirely convinced that they will, because even with Gavrikov playing next to Adam Fox, there are still some big depth issues on defense, and the 5-on-5 problems in general are a recurring theme here. This season is still going to come down to Igor Shesterkin's ability to put the team on his back and carry it.
He was very good in 2024-25. He just wasn't GREAT the way the Rangers have been accustomed to seeing him be. The results: He didn't mask every single flaw again and they missed the playoffs.
If Shesterkin is merely very good instead of great again, the Rangers might be looking at a similar result as a team.
That would not be good news for anyone in the organization.
Ottawa Senators: Not Enough Secondary Support
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If you look at the top of the Senators' roster, there's a lot to like about it. Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, and some of the defensemen are really high-end players who are all in the prime years of their careers. They can be the foundation of a truly competitive team for a long time.
However, while players like Tkachuk and Stutzle are outstanding, they are not quite on the level of superstars like Connor McDavid, Matthew Tkachuk, Nathan MacKinnon, and Nikita Kucherov. Even those truly elite, A-level players need strong complementary players to help them win.
It is even more important for B-level players to have a good supporting cast around them, and there should be some question as to whether the Senators have that.
This season might not come down to what players like Stutzle do for the Senators. It might come down to what players like Dylan Cozens and Fabian Zetterlund do.
Philadelphia Flyers: Goaltending Sabotages Them Again
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The Flyers were not as bad as their record in 2024-25.
They should not have been bad enough to get John Tortorella fired. A very strong defensive structure was in place here, and despite lacking elite talent offensively, they still played well during 5-on-5 play. Maybe they weren't a contender, but they shouldn't have finished as poorly as they did.
Goaltending was the problem.
Again.
it's always the problem for the Flyers.
And it might be again given that their only move to fix the position was to sign Dan Vladar, who was somehow worse than the goalies they trotted out last year.
It's time to start showing some progress in the standings, and that's not going to happen if they do not have a single person who can stop the puck.
Pittsburgh Penguins: No Draft Lottery Luck
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There is a concern in Pittsburgh that the Penguins may be too successful this rebuilding year, potentially sabotaging their draft lottery odds.
When you look at the forwards and still see Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Bryan Rust, Rickard Rakell, and some really good young players like Ville Koivunen and Rutger McGroarty, it's kind of a valid thought.
When you look at the defense and goaltending the thought is not as valid.
This team is going to be bad.
The biggest concern should be relying on lottery balls. The Penguins have dramatically improved their farm system over the past year, and there is legit talent in the system. They are simply lacking a truly high-end, franchise cornerstone-type player.
They need Gavin McKenna. That will require lottery luck, regardless of where they finish in the standings.
San Jose Sharks: They Finish With the Worst Record
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This is similar to the Chicago Blackhawks situation: a once-strong contender that has been in a rebuild, boasting a franchise cornerstone player (Macklin Celebrini) and some promising young players around him, but lacking proven NHL talent that can immediately produce wins.
There is a bright future here. But Sharks fans are probably ready to start seeing some progress and wins, and getting closer to playoff contention.
The playoffs shouldn't be the goal this season. Progress should be the goal. Take the step from bad to competitive. Show you're building something around Celebrini. If they finish near the bottom of the standings again, or at the bottom, that would be a little frustrating.
Seattle Kraken: No Improvement from Young Players
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It's really hard to figure out what the Kraken have been doing as an organization in the first four years of their existence, because not much has made sense, and there's no real consistent, straightforward plan as to how they are going to compete.
It's been a very mismanaged team from day one.
The one thing they do have going for them is a couple of talented young top picks in Matty Beniers and Shane Wright.
So far, they have both been pretty good and shown flashes of more, but it hasn't been consistently there yet. They are still only 22 and 21, respectively, so they definitely still have room to grow and develop into top-line players. The Kraken need that to happen if they are going to build a contender.
The playoffs are probably not on the horizon this year given the roster, so they need to see some individual growth here. If they don't even see that, then the season is a waste.
St. Louis Blues: Defensive regression
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A mid-season coaching change and some shrewd moves to improve the defense (offer sheet to Philip Broberg; trading for Cam Fowler) helped the Blues turn themselves back into one of the best defensive teams in hockey, and sent them on a second-half surge to the playoffs.
The front office executed some aggressive roster construction, which produced strong results.
But was that second-half defensive improvement for real and something that can be sustained long-term over a full season?
If it is, the Blues should have a chance to repeat what they did in the second half. That team has a reasonably high ceiling.
If there is a regression in that play, the Blues are just a team with an okay offense and mediocre goaltending. That team's ceiling isn't very high.
Tampa Bay Lightning: Andrei Vasilevskiy Fizzles in the Playoffs Again
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The Lightning have not won a playoff series in three years, and there's a lot that's gone into that. While the high-end talent that made them a contender is still in place, the depth that made them a champion is not. They also haven't received the same level of playoff goaltending from Andrei Vasilevskiy.
Since the start of the 2022-23 season, his .914 save percentage is sixth in the NHL among the 66 goalies that have played in at least 50 games. Still outstanding. Still elite.
But over that same time period in the playoffs? His .882 save percentage is 18th out of 19 goalies that have appeared in at least 10 playoff games. Not outstanding. Not elite. And that has played just as big a role in their first-round exits as anything else.
Is it fatigue? The result of major minutes over a decade in the NHL and multiple extended playoff runs? Just small sample size noise? Maybe a little of both? Whatever it is, it's been one of the Lighnting's biggest playoff issues lately.
Toronto Maple Leafs: The Same Old Story Happens
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In other words, they win a lot of regular-season games and then fizzle out in the playoffs because their stars are not good enough to carry the team, and they don't have the depth to make up for that.
They finally made a significant change to the core by using Mitch Marner as the scapegoat in a sign-and-trade deal with the Vegas Golden Knights. However, despite the criticisms of his big-game performance, he remains a highly productive player whose production the Maple Leafs will have to replace.
Did they do enough to fix that? Did they do enough to upgrade the roster in general? Will the other core players step up and do more come playoff time?
Every year, the Maple Leafs' defense and goaltending are the focal point of criticism and concern come playoff time, but it's usually the offense that fails them in the spring. If it happens again, they will have to start pointing fingers and finding new scapegoats.
Utah Mammoth: Goaltending Slows Down Progress
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There's a LOT to like about this Mammoth roster, especially if they have some better injury luck on defense this season. It's a good unit on paper, and the forward group picked up another finisher with the trade for JJ Peterka from Buffalo. If Logan Cooley and Dylan Guenther take the expected step forward, there are a lot of reasons to believe this can be a playoff team this season.
The one thing that could throw a wrench into that plan is the goaltending.
That's the one big Achilles heel on this roster.
They received slightly below-average goaltending a year ago, and they are still really lacking a proven, productive goalie they can count on. It's the one position that could really slow down meaningful progress here.
Vancouver Canucks: Elias Pettersson Doesn't Get Back on Track
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The 2024-25 Canucks season was an overly dramatic mess, and with the future of Quinn Hughes being completely unsettled (and Jim Rutherford constantly talking about that fact), this season doesn't figure to be any better in that regard.
One of the biggest problems a year ago was the major regression from Pettersson, their best and most impactful forward (and also their most expensive forward).
When he's at his best, he is a 100-point player who can be a game-changer offensively.
He was only a fraction of that player in 2024-25, and it helped crush their offense and playoff chances, while he became the subject of trade speculation. A trade never actually came to fruition; he has a new head coach, and J.T. Miller is no longer on the roster.
It's a clean slate and a fresh start across the board and a new chance for Pettersson to get back to the player he once was. If that happens, the Canucks outlook dramatically changes. If it doesn't happen, their outlook changes in the complete opposite (and worse) direction.
Vegas Golden Knights: The Defense Struggles Without Alex Pietrangelo
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The Golden Knights addressed one of their biggest offseason holes (a top-line winger) by landing Mitch Marner from Toronto. It's a potentially good match for the team and the player, and should dramatically improve the Golden Knights' offense.
One of the reasons they were able to position themselves to land a contract like that is that one of their top defensemen, Alex Pietrangelo, is stepping away from hockey for the time being. That's a significant departure from the defense, with nobody else really coming into fill those skates.
It's not going to be enough to keep Vegas from contending, but it could create a potentially big hole on the roster and require some real front office creativity to fix it in-season.
Washington Capitals: Father Time Slows Down Alex Ovechkin
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Thanks to an aggressive summer in 2024, the Capitals went from being one of the worst playoff teams of the modern era to one of the best teams in the league. It was also a season that saw Alex Ovechkin continue to defy all known aging curves, score 44 goals in 65 games at the age of 39 (after breaking his leg in season!) and officially become the NHL's all-time goal-scoring king.
Crazy stuff when you think about it.
While he is not quite the player he was at his peak, he is still the Capitals' most significant impact player. The rest of the team is a solid group where the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. There are a lot of really good hockey players here. However, there aren't many players who will keep opposing coaches awake at night. Ovechkin still has some of that presence to him.
But at some point, you have to think that time is going to come knocking on the door and slow him down. Can he really score at a 50-goal pace at the age of 40? I mean ... probably.
However, if he doesn't, and if he finally starts to slow down, that could potentially take away some big goals. It would also be a bummer for Capitals fans not to see him score a ton of goals.
But who are we kidding? We all know the season's going to end with him having a goal total that starts with a four or five.
Winnipeg Jets: Playoff Connor Hellebuyck shows up again
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Connor Hellebuyck is currently the best goalie on the planet, and it might not be particularly close at the moment. He is a three-time Vezina winner, the reigning league MVP, and is one of the small number of goalies that you should be able to count on for consistent, dominant production from year to year.
He's great.
But he has not been able to shake that playoff narrative in recent years.
Over the past three seasons, no goalie in the NHL has had a better save percentage in the regular season than his .922 mark.
Over that same time period, no goalie in the NHL has a worse save percentage in the playoffs than his .872 mark.
He will get them to the playoffs. He has also been one of the reasons they have not gone further in the playoffs.
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