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Way-Too-Early NHL Trade Landing Spots for Kirill Kaprizov amid Rumors
With the news that Minnesota Wild forward Kirill Kaprizov has already turned down a contract offer that would have made him the highest-paid player in the NHL, it's only natural that his name would start to surface in trade speculation.
The Wild already made a huge offer; he only has one year remaining on his contract, and as good as he is, they are probably not going to want to risk losing him for nothing at the end of this season so even though Kaprizov is an MVP-caliber player, and even though the Wild should have visions on contending this season, a trade -- while a long-shot -- should not be eliminated as an idea.
So let's take a look at both his trade value and some teams that could -- or perhaps should -- have interest in landing the Wild's superstar forward.
What Is Kirill Kaprizov's Trade Value?
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In a vacuum and just looking at Kaprizov's talent and production, you would imagine that his trade value would be astronomical. But trades never happen in a vacuum and they never look the way we think they will at this stage of the game.
Wild fans are going to demand every team's top-five prospects and next four first-round picks.
Fans of teams that want Kaprizov are going to make every prospect untouchable.
In the end, Wild fans would likely come away underwhelmed, and the fans of the team that got Kaprizov would probably be thinking, "Wow, I can't believe we got this guy without giving up [name of random top prospect here]."
That's how these things always go.
When you're talking trade values, you're not just trading a player's talent and stats. You're also trading their age, injury history, contract status, salary and everything else that goes into a player's overall value.
In Kaprizov's case, yes, he is one of the best and most dynamic players in the league. He is an MVP-level forward. Players like him do not typically get traded. He also has just one year remaining on his contract, with no-trade protections, and is going to command a significant contract beyond this season and he will be 29 years old when it begins. Not exactly old, but not exactly young, either. You're going to be paying him $15-20 million per year into his 30s.
Even in a rising cap environment, that is significant. He also holds the keys to where he goes.
All of that has to be taken into account here.
Even so, the standard boilerplate, starting point for a major trade like this, usually always starts with a top prospect, a young NHL player, and a first-round pick.
When the Buffalo Sabres traded Jack Eichel, they received Alex Tuch, Peyton Krebs, a first-round pick, and a second-round pick. Whether you prefer Eichel or Kaprizov is a matter of taste. Kaprizov is a better offensive talent, but he's also a winger versus a No. 1 center. Eichel was also signed to a long-term contract at the time, but he was coming off a significant injury that left some uncertainty about his future.
Still, that sort of package is probably in the ballpark if Minnesota were looking at its return more long-term.
The other option is the Matthew Tkachuk type of trade, where instead of dealing for young players and prospects, you aim for another high-level player on a big contract. An old-school hockey trade where a similarly aged, high-priced player returns to Minnesota.
Now that we have some suggestions for a return in mind. Let's look at some teams.
Honorable Mentions
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Pittsburgh Penguins. This may not seem to fit into the timeline of a rebuild, but let's consider this. Whether it is for PR purposes or if they genuinely believe it, they are still talking about trying to make the playoffs again while Sidney Crosby is still there.
There is also, finally, some real smoke around a potential Crosby trade if they continue to lose. Does that prompt them to accelerate their timeline? Do they feel they need to do more to keep Crosby happy and in one uniform for his career? Does a deep-pocketed, potential new owner have the stomach for a lengthy rebuild right at the start? Does the timeline change?
The Penguins are swimming in salary cap space in future seasons, and regardless of what happens with Crosby in the near future, they will still require a franchise player when he leaves or retires. I wouldn't put them high on the list of landing spots. However, their DNA is star power, and it has been for more than 40 years. I would not put them at the top of the Kaprizov lost, but I would also not put it at zero either.
Vancouver Canucks. As long as Jim Rutherford has a hand in a team's front office, you have to expect the unexpected with that team. I'm not sure if Minnesota would have much interest in Elias Pettersson, but his future with the Canucks has been in question for over a year now.
Detroit Red Wings. How long can Steve Yzerman keep sitting on his hands with unused salary cap space and a roster that is in the bottom half of the league every year? This team and franchise need a spark.
San Jose Sharks. The Sharks have a really strong young nucleus being built here around Macklin Celebrini, and a big-time superstar would really accelerate that timeline.
Washington Capitals. The Capitals front office has done a magnificent job keeping their competitive window open for the end of the Alex Ovechkin era. It is still a team where the whole is greater than the sum of its parts, and even with Ovechkin still scoring 40-50 goals every year, they could still use another impact player both for now and when Ovechkin inevitably retires in the not-too-distant future. The Capitals have been aggressive in recent years, so they should not be ruled out in this scenario.
Tampa Bay Lightning
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This would not be an easy trade or an easy move to make, but when has that ever stopped the Lightning before?
The wild-card in all of this is that Kaprizov has nearly all the leverage on where he goes, given his no-trade protections, as well as the fact that he will be a free agent after this season. He is calling a lot of the shots here and why wouldn't Tampa Bay be high on his list?
It's a strong team; there is a significant Russian connection with Nikita Kucherov and Andrei Vasilevskiy on the roster, and as we have discussed in the NHL, the Lightning play in a tax-free state that could further appeal to Kaprizov from a financial perspective.
I know, the salary cap. How are they going to fit him in under the salary cap?
Answer: They would find a way. Contracts can always be moved. Money can be retained. There is always a way to get the player you want. Tampa Bay is as good at that sort of thing as anybody else in the NHL.
.png?w=256 "Playoff Winners and Losers")
Chicago Blackhawks
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Would the Wild trade their best player to a team within the same division? Some teams hate that idea, but if the return is worth it, you're not doing your job as a general manager if you don't at least consider it.
The Blackhawks have the type of salary cap space that could take on Kaprizov's contract both now and in the future, and they desperately -- DESPERATELY -- need to start building something around Connor Bedard that isn't just a hope and a prayer with all of their prospects trying to learn in the NHL at the same time.
They do have a strong prospect pool and draft picks that might be attractive in a trade, and at some point, they need to start cashing some of them in for real NHL help.
The obstacle would be whether Kaprizov wants to sign long-term with a team that, as of this moment, still seems years away from contention. But there are a lot of hockey reasons -- and financial reasons -- why it would make some sense.
Los Angeles Kings
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The Kings' rebuild has kind of reached a plateau and needs something to shift it in a different direction.
They are a playoff team, but they can not get through the first round of the playoffs. Specifically, they can not get through the Edmonton Oilers.
The Kings are well structured, strong defensively (though that might change after this offseason) and have a team that is full of really good two-way players. What they are lacking is a big-time superstar offensively. They need more difference-makers in that lineup.
A player like Kaprizov, if they could land him and keep him, would absolutely fill that need and even if it cost them a significant package of players back in return
New York Rangers
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Long-time Rangers beat writer Larry Brooks attempted to poke holes in the idea of the Rangers trading for Kaprizov with this argument: "The idea that the Rangers would hollow out their roster and draft capital to trade for pending UFA Kirill Kaprizov only then to sign him for $16M-$18 million per is about as ludicrous as it gets."
I don't know, man, that kind of sounds EXACTLY like the New York Rangers that I know.
Is there another New York Rangers franchise in the NHL that doesn't operate like that?
They love big names they can put up in lights. They love big moves. Sometimes crazy moves.
Kaprizov is as big a name as they could possibly get right now, unless Connor McDavid told the Edmonton Oilers to get lost and became a free agent himself.
Artemi Panarin's contract comes off the books after this season and the Rangers still need more difference-makers at forward. If they're not interested or involved, it would be a shock.
Carolina Hurricanes
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Looking at this from a strictly hockey standpoint, the Carolina Hurricanes seem like one of the most obvious fits and potential landing spots here.
They are a good team and a legitimate Stanley Cup contender.
Despite the overall quality of the roster and even after adding Nikolaj Ehlers in free agency, they are still likely to be lacking another high-end player who can help drive the offense. They need another big-time finisher to help put them over the top.
They are also the rare contender that not only has a ton of salary cap space to work with (still over $10 million this season), but also a really good cabinet of trade assets to pull from in terms of both young NHL players and prospects, as well as draft picks (four first-round picks over the next three years).
They also have an aggressive general manager who is not afraid to make bold moves (as we saw at this year's NHL trade deadline).
The only question might be whether or not ownership is prepared to make the same financial investment in one player.
.png?w=480 "Playoff Winners and Losers")
