Predicting Which 2015 NBA Draft Picks Will Become All-Stars
Excitement and intrigue surround the newly minted 2015 NBA draft class, a group brimming with talent throughout the lottery and beyond.
Many of these unproven prospects will go on to have successful pro careers, but which ones will be special enough to reach the exclusive All-Star plateau?
Some modern-era draft classes have produced sparse contingents of eventual All-Stars (the 2000 draft boasts two) while others churned out a fleet of midseason honorees (the 2003 draft had nine). How many will the 2015 crop yield?
Our predictions are based on the prospects' collegiate or international production, tangible skill potential and physical tools that will translate to the Association. We also accounted for their team environment, roster situation and ability to develop in their systems. The projections are optimistic, but not necessarily their best-case scenarios.
Several of 2015's top-five picks are prime candidates to attain All-Star glory, but there are some dark horses poised to emerge as well. Who exactly made the cut?
On the Bubble
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The following draftees have some All-Star potential in them, but they might only make one appearance or barely miss out.
Mario Hezonja, Orlando Magic SG/SF: Hezonja's ceiling is firmly in All-Star territory, and his middle-of-the-road is still lofty. The 6'8" swingman has the springboard athleticism and shooting prowess to become a lethal scorer, so the question is whether he can round out the other areas, play smart and earn an optimal role on the Magic. Chance to Become All-Star: 65 percent
Stanley Johnson, Detroit Pistons SF: Motown's lottery prize isn't your garden variety small forward. Johnson stood out during Orlando Summer League with a powerful playing style, and it won't be long before the one-and-done stud is outpacing most Eastern Conference forwards with his two-way instincts. Will he have enough shot-creating juice to crack the league's elite ranks? That's no guarantee. Chance to Become All-Star: 55 percent
Justise Winslow, Miami Heat SF: If Winslow reaches his best-case scenario as a Kawhi Leonard-Jimmy Butler type of weapon, there's a decent chance he'll make several All-Star appearances. For now, we'll put him on the bubble as he projects to be a dynamic two-way role player who can fill a multitude of roles. Chance to Become All-Star: 50 percent
Myles Turner, Indiana Pacers PF/C: It would be surprising if Turner didn't challenge for an All-Star bid or two during the prime of his career. The 7-footer's size and deft shooting touch should yield consistent scoring, and Turner's elite shot-blocking gifts will make him an upper-echelon rim protector. Chance to Become All-Star: 45 percent
Trey Lyles, Utah Jazz PF: Lyles is more polished than most one-and-done lottery picks, so we're already seeing some convincing displays of offensive versatility. He isn't a tremendous athlete, but he'll stretch the floor as a shooter and make plays off the bounce ambidextrously. Chance to Become All-Star: 40 percent
Kelly Oubre, Washington Wizards SF: This is a classic boom-or-bust prospect. If Oubre cultivates his ball-handling and regularly creates offense, the shooting and athleticism will do the rest and earn him All-Star consideration. If not, he could be a streaky, unreliable threat who doesn't produce at an All-Star level. Chance to Become All-Star: 40 percent
Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves PF/C
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2014-15 Stats: 21.1 MPG, 10.3 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 2.3 BPG, 56.6 FG%
Summer League Stats: 31.2 MPG, 12.8 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 1.8 BPG, 39.6 FG%
No. of Appearances: 7-9
Like any other team with a No. 1 overall pick, the Minnesota Timberwolves have All-Star aspirations for their top prospect.
That's exactly what Karl-Anthony Towns will become—in a few years.
The 6'11" Kentucky star has some promising low-post moves and pick-and-pop skills, but he must sharpen and expand his arsenal before generating huge numbers. Towns converted just 40 percent of his looks from the field during summer league, so there's a canyon of room for him to improve his shot selection and execution.
Likewise, Towns needs to improve his defensive discipline and fundamentals in order to maximize his tremendous tools. He averaged 6.2 fouls per game this summer, including a couple of nine-foul outings. The tremendous rim-protecting talent is there, however, as Towns covers a ton of space in the paint with long strides and sky-scraping reach.
While earning a Western Conference frontcourt All-Star bid isn't quite as difficult as nabbing a guard spot, it's still a lofty feat. Towns will need to flirt with or exceed 20-10 numbers to launch himself into the discussion.
Many elite big men have to pay their dues before earning midseason glory. For example, DeMarcus Cousins didn't become an All-Star until his second 20-10 campaign and fifth season in the league. But Boogie will probably earn several more trips before his prime is over.
Like Cousins, Towns may have to wait three-plus years before he becomes a fixture under the bright lights of February.
Jahlil Okafor, Philadelphia 76ers C
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2014-15 Stats: 30.1 MPG, 17.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 66.4 FG%
Summer League Stats: 30.6 MPG, 15.8 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 44.0 FG%
No. of Appearances: 6-8
Even when he was in high school, Jahlil Okafor looked like a prime candidate to quickly become an NBA All-Star.
Duke's one-and-done stud brings a colossal physique and a myriad of effective low-post maneuvers to the Philadelphia 76ers. Once he finds ways to adjust to the speed of opposing defenses (like polishing his 12-15 foot jumper), he'll be a deadly weapon.
If Philly's unheralded cast of guards can get Okafor the rock, he'll quickly put up sizable scoring numbers. What's more, he'll enhance the Sixers' offensive flow by detonating double-teams with laser passes. D.J. Foster of ESPN.com explains:
"Okafor seems to be a much more willing passer, hanging tough against double-teams instead of turning away from them. The best players in the NBA make you pick your poison nearly every time down the floor, and Okafor’s passing will be central to him developing into that kind of player and expanding into a better playmaker out of the pick-and-roll.
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Given Philadelphia's fluid roster and Okafor's youth, it's unlikely that the big fella will earn All-Star status in his first year.
However, the bruising, yet nimble post production Okafor has shown during Las Vegas Summer League indicates stardom may be in his not-too-distant future.
He'll inevitably struggle on defense and falter during uptempo sequences. Fortunately, filling up the hoop is still a big part of this sport, and that's something Okafor offers in spades.
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D'Angelo Russell, Los Angeles Lakers PG/SG
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2014-15 Stats: 33.9 MPG, 19.3 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 5.0 APG, 44.9 FG%, 41.1 3FG%
Summer League Stats: 30.0 MPG, 11.8 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 3.2 APG, 37.7 FG%, 11.8 3FG%
No. of Appearances: 4-6
Ohio State's D'Angelo Russell dazzled college fans and NBA scouts alike during one of the best freshman campaigns you'll see from a point guard. His knack for deftly setting up teammates and filling up the hoop earned the Los Angeles Lakers' favor at No. 2.
We might see glimpses of that passing prowess and sweet shooting early on, but he won't be an All-Star-caliber player for a while. Substantial development and deference to Kobe Bryant need to transpire first before the 6'5" teenager becomes a top-shelf playmaker.
Russell will outperform his sloppy summer league stats because the Lakers' big league squad will yield smoother collaboration. However, the combo guard's inefficient shooting (38 percent from the field, 12 percent from three-range) and 5.2 turnovers per game are indicative of the areas he must address.
Make no mistake, his ceiling is lofty. Russell possesses the natural court vision, ball-handling finesse and streamlined shooting stroke that most guards will never have. As Russell learns to counteract the speed of defenders and learns to play some defense of his own, he'll gradually climb the NBA's food chain.
Ben Golliver of Sports Illustrated explained what the Lakers must do to maximize Russell's potential: "If Russell is going to deliver on his draft position, he will need the ball in his hands and he will need to play at his natural spot, where he can use his excellent vision and play-making instincts to lead an offense. How long will it take for that transition to unfold?"
The Western Conference backcourt is stacked and will continue to be competitive for at least the next decade. The likes of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, James Harden, Damian Lillard and Russell Westbrook aren't going anywhere soon. Russell has the talent to eventually crack the All-Star ranks, but it may take three or four years, and it won't be easy for him to stay there.
Kristaps Porzingis, New York Knicks PF/C
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2014-15 Stats (ACB League): 21.0 MPG, 11.4 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 1.0 BPG, 49.6 FG%, 35.9 3FG%
Summer League Stats: 20.5 MPG, 10.5 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 1.8 BPG, 48.0 FG%, 20.0 3FG%
No. of Appearances: 2-4
Enigmatic Latvian prodigy Kristaps Porzingis has an incredible blend of gifts that most 7-footers dream of.
Firstly, the New York Knicks rookie is longer than most 7-footers, standing at 7'3" in shoes with a 7'6" wingspan. Porzingis also runs and jumps gracefully from end-to-end unlike anyone his size. And lastly, he has a buttery-smooth shooting delivery worthy of a 2-guard.
Much like several candidates on this list, Porzingis will require a healthy dose of patience on the part of New York Knicks fans.
His solid summer league was a step in the right direction, but Porzingis must dramatically improve several key areas before shining fully. The lanky teenager needs to add another 25 pounds of lean muscle in his base and core in order to battle for position. He must also work on low-post moves, perimeter handling and defensive discipline.
"It was a new experience, how physical the game is,’’ Porzingis said of summer league, per Marc Berman of the New York Post. “Obviously I need to get stronger to prepare for the season and it’s something I’ll work on. I’ll work hard in the weight room, lifting weights.
If Porzingis can adequately tackle most of these tasks, he will become New York's next All-Star big man. With a penchant for getting buckets from all angles and a willingness to wall off the paint, the Knickerbocker newcomer has stratospheric potential.
Check back in two to three years when Porzingis could be knocking on the door of the Eastern Conference roster. And when Carmelo Anthony's career fades, Porzingis could take the torch as the Big Apple's brightest star.
Emmanuel Mudiay, Denver Nuggets PG
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2014-15 Stats (China): 31.5 MPG, 18.0 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 5.9 APG, 1.6 SPG, 47.8 FG%, 34.2 3FG%
Summer League Stats: 30.5 MPG, 12.0 PPG, 5.8 APG, 38.5 FG%, 14.3 3FG%
No. of Appearances: 4-6
Denver Nuggets draftee Emmanuel Mudiay offers a boatload of tools and talent for a No. 7 pick.
He's built like a strong swingman, but has the dexterity and playmaking instincts of a point guard. Mudiay flew under the radar during his mysterious stint in China, so he has a chance to surprise a lot of NBA opponents and wreak havoc attacking the tin.
During the Las Vegas Summer League, Mudiay displayed a sampling of his dual-threat capabilities.
He finished fourth among all players in assists per game (5.8) by slashing into the paint and creating seams for comrades. When Mudiay wasn't busy facilitating, he stayed aggressive and posted a couple of high-scoring games.
Mudiay also confirmed a couple of weaknesses he must diligently refine: turnovers and outside shooting.
New Nuggets coach Mike Malone noted that once Mudiay adopts better fundamentals and shot selection, he'll be respectably efficient.
"Obviously his shooting needs to get better," Malone told Christopher Dempsey of the Denver Post. "The reason that his shooting percentages are down sometimes is because he's taking very tough shots—leaning, fading, off balance, contested. So as he takes better shots, his percentages are going to go up."
The number of All-Star Games Mudiay plays in could be directly affected by his perimeter accuracy. If he doesn't improve much, he would be a pass-heavy guard who sees 2-4 appearances. However, an upgraded jumper could catapult him to elite status and send him to the midseason festivities almost every year.
Dark Horse: Justin Anderson, Dallas Mavericks SG/SF
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2014-15 Stats: 27.8 MPG, 12.2 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 1.7 APG, 46.6 FG%, 45.2 3FG%
Summer League Stats: 31.8 MPG, 17.5 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 1.5 APG, 43.4 FG%, 38.5 3FG%
No. of Appearances: 2-3
If you're looking for a late-first round prospect with the tools and moxie to overachieve and crash the All-Star party, check out Dallas Mavericks newbie Justin Anderson.
The No. 21 pick out of Virginia didn't simply have a productive Las Vegas Summer League. Anderson proved his junior year three-point prowess was for real, drilling 15-of-39 (39 percent) from the NBA arc, including 11-of-19 over the last three games.
Anderson also looked comfortable in attack mode. It's hard for defenses to speed him up or force mistakes, as he used strength and smarts to slash coolly and take advantage of the NBA's uptempo style.
"Once I started to realize that in college it was a lot slower and a lot more packed in the paint, (in the NBA) you can get to the rim kind of at ease," he told Earl Sneed of Mavericks.com. "It’s a lot more space, so I’ve learned a lot about myself. And I just have to continue to stay confident and work hard."
If Anderson's inside-out development on offense isn't promising enough, his defensive instincts and tools will garner gradual playing time early in his career. The 6'6" swingman's footwork and timing are substantially better than the majority of NBA rookies.
Within a couple of years, Anderson could establish himself as one of the Mavericks' most indispensable players. Depending on his progress as a scorer and creator, Anderson could stuff the stat sheet enough to challenge for All-Star spots down the road.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats are from NBA.com, Sports-Reference.com and RealGM.com.
Dan O'Brien covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @DanielO_BR
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