Grading Every Aspect of Dallas Wings Star Paige Bueckers' Rookie Season in the WNBA
What a year it's been for Paige Bueckers.
We're only a few months removed from her capping off a prolific college career with an elusive championship. Since then, Bueckers has established herself as the face of the Dallas Wings while earning All-Star honors in the process.
She's the front-runner for this year's Rookie of the Year award, a lock for the All-Rookie team, and has put together a season worthy of All-WNBA discussion—if not an outright selection. (I'd have her juuust on the outside if I had an official ballot, but ranking in the top 10 of the league in points, assists and steals as a rookie on above-league average efficiency is one heck of a case.)
With nearly a full season under her belt—the Wings have five games left, though there's no telling how many of those we'll see Bueckers in—let's take a look at where Bueckers stands as a player and project her forward. We'll be looking at both ends of the ball, digging into broad and micro-skills.
Bueckers ranking poorly in an area isn't meant as a death knell; she can and likely will improve. Conversely, some things that she got away with in Year 1 might be more difficult to replicate as teams get even more detailed with their scouting reports heading into Year 2.
All stats are current through games played on August 27. The stats are courtesy of WNBA.com (basic player stats/advanced team stats), PBP Stats (lineup data), or Second Spectrum (player or team tracking/play-type data) unless otherwise noted.
Overall Scoring: A-
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The Basics: 19.0 points (5th), 50.4% on 11.6 two-point attempts, 33.9% on 3.5 three-point attempts, 88.6% on 4.3 free-throw attempts
Advanced Numbers: 50.5 eFG%, 56.1 TS%
WNBA League-Average Efficiency: 49.5% on 2s, 33.8% on 3s, 49.9 eFG%, 54.2 TS%
Twelve players are averaging at least 10.0 two-point shots per game this season. Of those 12, nine have converted at least 50 percent of those looks. Bueckers is the only guard in that 12-player group, and she's one of the nine who's making at least half of her shots in that range.
Between quick curls to get her to the elbow, pull-ups out of ball screens, self-created looks against switches and the occasional post touch, Bueckers' comfort operating in the mid-range area—it's not dead!—has been a joy to watch.
She's converted roughly 45 percent of her middies this year, an impressive mark especially considering her volume (only Courtney Williams has attempted more) and degree of difficulty. Her 95.2 percent contest rate is fourth among the 26 players who have attempted at least 50 mid-range shots.
She's shifty enough, and her handle is slick enough, to create advantages for herself. Because of her high release point and willingness to alter it, she's also able to find shot windows that shouldn't exist.
Bueckers' growing ability to draw fouls deserves a mention here, too. She possesses great footwork and balance, and she's done a better job of leveraging her jump-stops, pivots and fakes to get to the line. There's room for her to hunt even more in that regard, honestly. Adding more play strength should allow her to access the paint more easily, ideally opening up even more foul-drawing opportunities.
The easiest way for Bueckers to level up as a scorer would be to modernize her shot profile a bit. A whopping 35.6 percent of her shots have come at the rim or from three. Among the 95 players who have logged at least 500 minutes this season, only A'ja Wilson (28.4%) has a lower Moreyball rate.
Bueckers only averaging 3.5 threes per game feels low and is easily correctable. Her film is littered with early-offense possessions where she flows into 18-20 foot pull-up jumpers (fine shots for her) instead of taking shots from behind the arc. A 25 percent clip on pull-up threes sounds rough, and it could be justification for her not taking them...until you realize she's attempted only 16 all season.
As a wise man once said, "It's not enough."
To be clear, Bueckers is a good enough mid-range scorer that she shouldn't take the shot completely out of her game. In terms of shot distribution, even something like a 20-50-30 split (rim/mid-range/threes) would do wonders for her compared to the 13-64-23 split she has this season. Finding better balance is the key.
Playmaking: B+
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The Basics: 5.2 assists (10th among players with 15 games played), 2.0 turnovers
Advanced Numbers: 29.1 assist rate, 10.7 turnover rate
Although Bueckers ranks 10th leaguewide in assists as a rookie, her number (5.2) undersells how good of a passer she is. Her combination of anticipation and placement often puts her teammates in good positions to finish. This really stands out in empty-side situations, where Bueckers often lofts a pass over the top of defenses a beat before her roller slips into space.
In light of how teams defend her—she's been blitzed on 14 percent of her ball screens, which is the highest rate in the league among high-volume ball-handlers (min. 300 picks)—it's even more impressive that she's been able to keep the ball moving while keeping turnovers down.
(If you want to make The Comp™️, Caitlin Clark was blitzed on 12.4 percent of hers last season. As written about in this space, teams dialed back their blitzing against Clark this year, opting instead to ramp up their switching to flatten things out.)
If there's a nitpick for Bueckers, she's a bit audacious as an interior passer. That isn't inherently a bad thing—the windows she sees and attempts are often impressive—but she has gotten herself into trouble with some of her hook-pass attempts. It's also worth keeping an eye on her velocity, particularly when she's kicking out to (or using) her left hand, but it's ultimately not a huge concern.
The lowest-hanging fruit, with all due respect, may just be flanking her with better screeners and play-finishers. The outlines of an elite playmaker are already there.
On-Ball Defense: C-
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The Basics: 1.6 steals, 0.5 blocks, 2.4 personal fouls
Advanced Numbers: 2.5 steal rate, 1.4 block rate
Bueckers has felt fine as an on-ball defender in her rookie campaign, which is honestly OK considering the adjustment period that rookie guards have to make, in addition to the offensive workload that Bueckers carries.
She generally competes at the point of attack, absorbs contact better than expected, and saves herself with timely swipe-downs to either generate steals or force tie-ups. Among 65 players to defend at least 100 drives, Bueckers ranks 27th in points per possession allowed (0.94 PPP) and 26th in blow-by rate (17.1%). That's slightly above-average in rank, but closer to average once you factor in her matchup difficulty.
Because she isn't explosive laterally, screen-navigation issues have popped up. When trying to do her work early, chewing up space when she feels a screen is coming, she leaves herself open to ball-screen rejects. She's been burned pretty badly in those situations (1.29 PPP), but it's worth noting the relatively low volume (19 picks). The number itself says as much about her as it does the backline help behind her.
It wouldn't be surprising if ball-handlers attempt to wrong-foot Bueckers more often next year. That's something she'll need to solve before the book is out.
Ultimately, better-screen navigation techniques (maybe she attempts to duck under more often?) and improved play strength should pay dividends moving forward.
Off-Ball Defense: C-
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The Basics: 3.2 defensive rebounds, 1.6 steals, 0.5 blocks, 2.4 fouls
Advanced Numbers: 11.3 defensive rebound rate, 2.5 steal rate, 1.4 block rate
Like most rookies, Bueckers is a mixed bag off the ball.
On one hand, one of the earliest notes I had on Bueckers was her off-ball communication. I'm reminded of one of the early Wings-Sky matchups back in May where, after the team was burned on an earlier possession, Bueckers called out a set before it developed to help blow it up.
She's oddly good at timing out inbound passes, and she generally knows where she's supposed to be. She also adds value as a defensive rebounder. Her willingness to mix it up and get contested ones is admirable, as she's able to jump-start transition opportunities whenever she grabs one.
On the other hand, Bueckers often feels a beat late to her spots. She's working toward the nail to provide relief on a drive instead of already being there. She's working toward the paint to fulfill low-man duties instead of already being there.
That makes life harder for her when she's attempting to close out, and she fails to contain drives that she's shown she can handle in more straight-line contexts because of it. That, plus screen-navigation issues, can make things feel perilous on her worst nights, especially when you consider the overall defensive context she's been asked to operate in.
(I promise I won't turn this into another section of my frustration with the Wings' defense, but whew buddy did I not understand spending half the season operating as arguably the most aggressive defense in the league—thus putting yourself in more scramble situations—with this personnel. But alas!)
There's obvious room for improvement for Bueckers, but I'm encouraged by her anticipation (she does read the game well) and communication. I'm optimistic that an actual offseason to work out kinks (and rest) and a better context will lead to better results.
Overall Grade: A-
5 of 5
I was tempted to give Bueckers an A+ off the strength of her breaking the DoorDash curse with her 44-point performance against the Los Angeles Sparks. That game, and the half-off code, quite literally fed families.
In all seriousness, Bueckers' rookie campaign has been tremendous and record-breaking in her own right. In addition to setting/tying the single-game rookie scoring record, she became the fastest player in WNBA history to reach 200 points, 50 rebounds and 50 assists, as well as the fastest to join the 500-point, 100-assist club.
As mentioned earlier, she was named an All-Star and seems primed to win Rookie of the Year while pushing for an All-WNBA selection. If you don't want to give Bueckers the outright best-on-the-team title in light of Arike Ogunbowale's down season, you at least have to acknowledge that Bueckers has been the team's best player. Despite their record, it's worth noting that the Wings are over six points worse per 100 possessions when Bueckers is on the bench.
If she stays healthy, we have a budding superstar on our hands.
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