Power Ranking Main British and Irish Contenders at the Open at St. Andrews

ST ANDREWS, Fife—For many players in the field this week, the preoccupation heading into Thursday’s opening round is the weather forecast.

The destination of the Claret Jug is always decided on Sunday, but in recent years the field of contenders has often been whittled down by the luck of the draw over the first two days.

The early/late system tournament organisers choose to employ (i.e. if you tee off in the morning on Thursday, you will have an afternoon slot the following day) would seem to be as fair as anyone can reasonably manage, but the weather has little concern for such theoreticals.

More than once in recent Opens, players on one side of the draw have found themselves condemned to the worst of the weather for both opening rounds, almost an immediate death knell to their chances as the course plays a couple of shots tougher over 36 holes.

“There’s a possibility for a lot of this tournament to be dependent on the draw the first few days,” Jordan Spieth, whose pursuit of the Grand Slam could well be affected by his draw, acknowledged on Wednesday. “At least for a few strokes.

“It doesn’t mean you can’t make it up if you get the bad end of it, but it will be harder.”

In the past, Darren Clarke (who won in 2011 at Royal St George's) has been a beneficiary, but the added complication of it all is that no-one actually knows how lucky (or unlucky) they have been until play is completed.

Advance weather forecasts are notoriously unreliable (Justin Rose said a reporter had “made his day” by suggesting he might be on the lucky side earlier in the week, having himself seen another forecast that did not bode so well), but the latest estimates suggest the late starters on Thursday might have the worst of conditions, although it is in the afternoon on both days—where the wind is expected to kick up significantly—that the wind is expected to be worst.

That might end up meaning no group of golfers gains a particular advantage, a relief to purists and those who want the oldest test in golf to also be the fairest.

Partly as a result of weather (it has rained, off and on, over all four practice rounds, and is scheduled to until the sun breaks through on Sunday), the course is also expected to play soft this week, lengthening the course for most players (aiding the big hitters) but perhaps allowing for more aggression with approach shots on the green.

“You’re going to have to be a little bit more aggressive in the air than years past,” Tiger Woods said. “It’ll be playing a little differently this year... it’s just not quite chasing.”

Yet it is actually putting that many expect to be the decisive feature in separating the field, with the cavernous nature of the Old Course’s greens meaning lag and mid-range putting will be tested to the maximum.

“The greens being soft this year, you might only see [approaches] 80 or 70 feet past the pin,” Justin Rose joked. “I think 30 feet here is the make zone...because 30 feet from the pin here can be in the quadrant where the pin is. The scale of everything is very different here.”

Most players agree that prior course knowledge is an advantage of at least some sort, with the Old Course a master that only reveals its secrets over time. Nevertheless, it is undeniably also an ageing master, one whose defences have slowly been rendered weaker and weaker by the growing proficiency of the golfers and the ever-improving technology they play with.

Unless the wind really gets up, the winning score is likely to be around 14-under par (and possibly even higher), meaning it will be about getting the hammer down early (when the weather is at its best) and then keeping as much of that forward momentum as possible as the weekend unfolds.

We might even see someone match the course record, becoming the first person to shoot 62 in a major in the process.

“I wouldn’t put it past anyone. These are the best players in the world,” Rickie Fowler said, when asked about the possibility of such a round. “If the wind is down, I mean, it’s definitely scoreable.

“But outside of that, it looks like you may be holding on ... because it looks like it could be tough come the weekend.”

Lenny Ignelzi/Associated Press

Fowler, along with Spieth, might be the prime contender this week. But there are a few Home Nations contenders who will be confident of their chances as well.

Power ranking the British and Irish hopefuls

There are 36 British and Irish golfers in the field this week, all hoping to succeed the absent McIlroy and emerge as a celebrated “home” winner of the event at the home of golf.

Here are six players perhaps most likely to feature high up on the leaderboard over the four days.

1. Shane Lowry

There is no Rory McIlroy this week, but it is still an Irishman who perhaps tops the list of home contenders this week. Shane Lowry might be something of an unknown to the wider golfing public, but there are plenty of compelling reasons why it should be little surprise if he is the last European hope standing come Sunday afternoon.

Six years removed from his famous victory in the Irish Open as an amateur, the 28-year-old seems to have finally settled into life as a professional—even if he has only added one further European Tour victory to his resume (the 2012 Portugal Masters).

Lowry made the cut in his debut Open appearance at St Andrews back in 2010 and has also played the weekend on both his appearances since—finishing inside the top 10 at last year’s tournament at Royal Liverpool.

He knows St Andrews well—sitting inside the top six at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in each of the last two iterations—and has always had a game strongly influenced by the links courses he grew up on.

The next step in Lowry’s career is to contend in a major, and this would seem the perfect week for him to do so.

2. Justin Rose

Jon Super/Associated Press

The highest-ranked Brit in the field, Rose consequently has entered this week with a fair amount of home attention (thanks for playing football, Rory!). The 34-year-old seems to have embraced the spotlight, however, calling himself a “contender” and pledging to turn around a spotty Open record that has seen him fail to record a top 10 since finishing in a tie for fourth as an amateur in 1998.

Rose played well in spells last week at the Scottish Open (fading over the weekend in the tournament he won 12 months earlier) and says he has good memories of St Andrews from his amateur and early professional days.

His game might be geared slightly more towards PGA Tour courses rather than links layouts these days, but if the course remains soft and he avoids the worst of the weather, the 2013 US Open champion knows he has done it before at the business end of a major.

3. Tommy Fleetwood

“Tommy who?” you might say, but there is a good chance that will not be your reaction by the end of the week.

The 24-year-old Englishman is one of two players on this list to hold a share of the course record at the Old Course, having shot 62 last year. That is reason enough to fancy his chances, but Fleetwood also has two top-five finishes at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in the last few years—proving he is a man who knows how to navigate his way around St Andrews.

His relative lack of major experience may ultimately count against him come crunch time, but he is certainly a player with the ability and track record to put himself on the leaderboard heading into the weekend.

4. Paul Casey

It has not always been plain sailing for Casey in the five years since he played in the final group in the Open at St Andrews, but he returns to Fife having rediscovered the sort of form that previously catapulted him into the top five in the world rankings.

Casey lost in a play-off to Bubba Watson at the recent Travelers Championship, but he has been high on the leaderboard seemingly every week this season on the PGA Tour (he is currently 17th in the FedEx Cup standings) and is back inside the top 50 in the world rankings.

“I’d like to lead [the British charge],” he said. “You need a little bit of luck with the tee-times. I’d love to lead the group because it’s a very strong group.”

Casey knows the course, hits the long ball and will have the support of the crowd if he gets on a roll early. Certainly one to watch.

5. Danny Willett

A name emerging in the conscious of the American golfing public (traditionally the last group to become aware of any talented European Tour players) thanks to his runner-up finish at this year’s WGC-World Match Play Championship, Willett seems to be a player on the verge of making that next step in his career and becoming a regular tour winner and, with time, a major contender.

He has twice missed the cut in three appearances at the Open, but he nearly breached the top 15 at Muirfield—suggesting he prefers it when the course is tough. He may be one player helped if the wind and rain kicks up this week.

6. David Howell

Something of a rarity amid this week’s field, Howell actually has a victory at St Andrews on his CV already—having won the 2013 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in a play-off.

The 40-year-old now seems to divide his time between playing tournaments and working as a television pundit, but the perception that creates of a semi-retired journeyman is at odds with some of the results he has delivered in majors.

Howell made the cut at the treacherous Merion in the 2013 US Open, while he finished in a tie for 15th at last year’s Open (he has made the cut in his last four Opens, although curiously he has never played in one at St Andrews).

The genial former Ryder Cup player is certainly an outside shot, but he knows the course and never plays beyond the limits of his game. If scoring is kept down by weather conditions, he may well be able to stick around with the best of them. 

Jon Super/Associated Press

The best of the rest...

There is a sense that the best chances of a major triumph for Lee Westwood, Ian Poulter and Luke Donald have all passed, although that is not an opinion that would go down well with any of them.

Donald arrives this week in the best form, but his game has never been well-suited to links, something that is not so true of his two fellow Englishman. Nevertheless, neither Westwood nor Poulter arrives in the sort of form to inspire confidence.

Beyond them, perhaps it is time Jamie Donaldson channelled his Ryder Cup form into an improved major record, having recorded just one top 10 (at the 2012 US PGA) in his entire career. Marc Warren, a late bloomer on the European Tour, might agree. 

All quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise stated.