Predicting NBA's Best and Worst Offseason Moves In 1 Year
Patience is required to fully evaluate all of the NBA offseason activity.
But who's got time for that?
Sure, it'd be nice to have a season's worth of data to know whether bold trades and big signings will actually worth. What if you could circumvent the process, though, and glimpse into the future to find that answer?
OK, we can't actually do that, but we can combine the powers of statistical projections, on-paper fits and the always reliable gut feels to get an idea of which moves will have aged the best and the worst by this time next year. Let's time-travel together, then, shall we, as we make educated guesses about which 2025 offseason moves will look best and worst by next year.
Best: Magic Making a Bold Move for Desmond Bane
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While four first-round picks and a first-round pick swap is, admittedly, a steep price for a 27-year-old non-star, the sticker shock of this megaswap should be muted by next summer. Especially since many key components of Memphis' outgoing trade package won't have conveyed by then.
What could have happened in a year's time, though, is Bane hitting the ground sprinting at Olympic speeds in Orlando. He is exactly what this offense needed, not only as a sharpshooter (career 41 percent from the perimeter) but also as a support scorer and secondary playmaker who can thrive both on and off the ball.
"I don't think there could have been a much better fit," Bane said on the Zach Lowe Show. "... I think that it fits like a glove and my skill set is something that can really help take some pressure off of Franz [Wagner], Paolo [Banchero], [Jalen] Suggs and all the guys."
If the Magic manage to find even an average offense with Bane—they were 27th last season—then this roster is ready to make major noise, particularly in the wide-open Eastern Conference. Their second-ranked defense is fully elite, and they have one of the Association's best wing tandems in Banchero and Wagner.
Throw in the many potential paths of upward mobility with this youthful roster, and Orlando's trajectory is simply an arrow pointing all the way up. If the Magic are conference finalists and Bane is a big reason why, no one will remember (or at least care) what they gave up to get him.
Worst: Pelicans Parting With an Unprotected First
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It's unfortunate that Derik Queen will be forever tethered to New Orleans' reckless draft-night deal to get him, because he's an interesting prospect in a vacuum. What's he not, though, is a can't-miss star. And the Pelicans kinda need him to be exactly that to justify the cost of his acquisition.
In order to climb the 10 spots needed to make him this summer's 13th pick, the Pelicans gave up an unprotected 2026 first-round pick, whichever is more favorable of their own or the Milwaukee Bucks'. It'll probably come from New Orleans, which lost 61 games this past season, but Milwaukee is a Giannis Antetokounmpo injury or trade request (which remains a possibility, by the way) away from organizational doomsday.
It's basically a scratch ticket with both a massive jackpot (folks love the top of the 2026 draft) and favorable odds. That's why the price New Orleans paid "had execs around the league already chortling in the moments after the draft," per The Athletic's Jon Hollinger.
This deal was a head-scratcher as soon as it happened, and it's hard to see this aging well. Queen is already missing valuable developmental time after tearing a ligament in his left wrist during summer league, and he figured to have a tricky transition to the big league, anyway, since he's neither a shooter, nor a shot-blocker—weaknesses that could make him particularly difficult to slot alongside Zion Williamson.
The Pels could be a mess. Williamson always has trouble staying upright, Dejounte Murray is still working his way back from a late-January Achilles tear, and the ball could get awfully sticky in a potentially Jordan Poole-run offense. There's a chance New Orleans again ranks among the league's worst teams, which would transform this trade from reckless to reprehensible.
Best: Rockets Taking Off with Kevin Durant
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Houston's launch into Phase 2 was a smashing success—52 wins, No. 2 seed in the West, seventh-best net rating—until offensive issues stalled everything out in the opening round. The Rockets fell in seven games to the play-in participant Golden State Warriors, managing a meager 89 points on 40.5/33.3/71.4 shooting in their closeout loss in front of their home fans.
They were ferocious and feisty, but also fatally flawed offensively without a go-to option for half-court, have-to-have-them scoring chances. Then, they went out this summer and added one of the toughest covers in NBA history with Kevin Durant, a 6'11" swingman with guard-like handles and a career 50.2/39/88.2 shooting slash.
Of the 84 players with career scoring averages of 20-plus points, Durant's career 62 true shooting percentage ranks fifth-best. And out of the 20 players with 175-plus points on isolations last season, he was the only one to convert those players with at least a 90th percentile efficiency (93rd, in fact).
In other words, he looks exactly like the missing piece of an otherwise fully equipped contender. And since the Phoenix Suns waited so long to unload him, Durant arrived in Houston at the discounted cost of this year's No. 10 pick, Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks and a handful of second-round picks.
There's a bit of risk with Durant unsigned past this season, and so much of this roster operating on a timeline dramatically different from his, but our crystal ball could not be more bullish about the partnership. Even if it ultimately proves short-lived, it has the potential to be special enough to bring a championship parade to Space City.
Worst: Bucks Spending LARGE on Myles Turner
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It's easy to understand why the Milwaukee Bucks wanted Myles Turner, since he'll step right into the floor-spacing, stretch-shooting center role that Brook Lopez so expertly filled for years alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo.
What's truly mind-boggling, though, is how the Bucks felt that desire strongly enough to effectively fork over nearly a quarter-billion dollars to get the Turner signing done. His four-year, $107 million contract isn't egregious on its own—though maybe it doesn't look great when he starts trekking through his 30s—but it's astronomic when paired with Milwaukee's historic method of offering it.
Before the Bucks could give Turner his nine-figure deal, they first had hand the injured Damian Lillard a nine-figure sum to go away. In NBA parlance, the Bucks waived-and-stretched the $113 million he was still owed, putting a $22.5 million dead spot on the books for each of the next five seasons.
When general manager Jon Horst shared the front office's thought process with The Athletic's Eric Nehm, it loosely translated to, "This better work right now, because our future is bleeped." That's our interpretation, at least, of the following quote:
"I think every decision, every move that you make, has risk and reward, so there's nothing unique about that in this case. We looked at the opportunity to acquire a highly productive, elite free agent, who is in the prime of his career, and who is an incredible fit next to Giannis, as an opportunity for these next two seasons in particular, instead of what would have been Dame on our books at a full salary, as really opportunistic, more than anything.
"The carry for the following three years, there's no question that if you want to call it an impediment or another hurdle, that's fine. But we were dealing with a really big hurdle and complication that we had to figure out how to deal with now, and the now matters more than anything. Maximizing Giannis' prime, our opportunities to win, I feel like that’s our responsibility always. So it was really a now versus future decision."
Basically, the Bucks felt they had to make a move or risk Antetokounmpo seeking out a move elsewhere. Which sort of sounds reasonable, until you remember that Antetokounmpo might seek that scenery change, anyway. And while you might be temped to give Milwaukee some the-East-is-wide-open benefit of the doubt, the Bucks are no longer in the conference's top weight class.
This is a team that would probably do well to reach the conference semis. That's not nearly enough of a prize to sacrifice all of the flexibility lost to what's effectively a $230 million investment in Turner, a 29-year-old with career averages of 14.1 points and 6.8 rebounds.
Best: Nuggets Acquiring Cameron Johnson
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While hindsight provides full clarity on a player's fit, sometimes the on-paper connection is so snug, you just know the partnership will thrive. That's almost certainly the case with Cameron Johnson and the Denver Nuggets, who feel like a match made in hoops heaven.
The Nuggets already know they can make this work with a player of Johnson's archetype. His game is similar in general shape to that of his predecessor, Michael Porter Jr., only with less variance and a much cheaper contract (two years, $44.1 million remaining for Johnson; two years, $79.1 million for Porter).
Johnson's point production probably takes a hit with his move from Brooklyn to Denver, but the improvement in shot quality could turbo-boost his efficiency. And considering he was just a 47.5/39/89.3 shooter on a Nets team nearly devoid of playmaking, his shot-making could be remarkable alongside a creator like Nikola Jokić.
"Everybody says, 'Well anybody can play with [Nikola],' but some are made to play with him," Nuggets coach David Adelman said earlier this offseason. "We felt like [Cam's] outside dribble handoff game, the shooting, it's all gonna translate."
The Nuggets, who just took the eventual champion Oklahoma City Thunder to seven games with a top-heavy roster and a wobbly playoff performance from a banged-up Porter, perhaps put themselves on a title track this summer. Beyond the Johnson-for-Porter-and-a-future-first swap, they added their missing depth by acquiring Jonas Valančiūnas, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Bruce Brown (a pivotal piece of their 2022-23 title team).
While we can't say for certain Denver will make a championship push next season, our telescope says the stars are aligned for that kind of run. Whether it happens or not, the Nuggets figure to be fully thrilled with the addition of Johnson, who's exactly the kind of high-end role player who can help a really good team make that final leap to greatness.
Worst: Blazers Betting Big on Jrue Holiday
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This is, admittedly, a bit painful, as Jrue Holiday has been both a consummate professional (the league's lone three-time Teammate of the Year award winner) and a finishing piece on a pair of championship teams (the 2020-21 Milwaukee Bucks and 2023-24 Boston Celtics). Plus, there's something admirable about the Portland Trail Blazers' brass rewarding their young roster for a competitive finish to this last campaign (13-14 after the All-Star break).
Having said all of that, just about everything involving the 35-year-old Holiday seems in decline other than his salary, which jumps to $32.4 million this season, $34.8 million the next and $37.2 million for 2027-28 (technically a player option, but he'll obviously pick that up for his age-37 campaign). That's a huge chunk of change for someone who just submitted one of his least productive seasons ever (11.1 points and 3.9 assists).
And while the Blazers had some bite in this past season's second half, they hardly seem like a team on the cusp of some major breakout. Securing a play-in spot would almost surely qualify as a success in the fully loaded Western Conference.
The question, then, is what Holiday is supposed to provide. He can be a valuable mentor to young guards like Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe, sure, but he'll also cut into their developmental time on the court. And $104.4 million is an exorbitant price for a locker room leader, even if said leadership is top-notch. Plus, Portland now has Damian Lillard in a mentorship role, and he'll further crowd the backcourt upon his return from an Achilles tear.
If Holiday helped the Blazers transform into playoff regulars, then he might be worth something close to that cost, depending on his role in their ascension. But our crystal ball sees Portland failing to qualify for the play-in (let alone advancing through it), and quite possibly searching for—and failing to find—a taker for Holiday this time next year.
