Ranking the Projected MLB Playoff Rotation of Every Contender
Home runs and crooked numbers on the scoreboard might capture headlines, but pitching still wins championships.
A stacked rotation might be the single biggest advantage a team can possess heading into the MLB postseason, but in today's era of expanded bullpen usage, it's not as simple as hoping your starter goes seven-plus innings.
Not every team has four reliable starting pitching options to turn to in a best-of-seven series, and even last year's title-winning Los Angeles Dodgers handed the ball to rookie Ben Casparius to serve as an opener in Game 4 of the World Series.
Still, a strong starting staff can be a major weapon, and ahead we've taken a closer look at each playoff contender's projected playoff rotation, with a breakdown of each club's ace, other rotation locks and potential candidates to start Game 4 in a best-of-seven series.
Every team with at least a five percent chance of making the playoffs as of Thursday morning, according to FanGraphs, is included as a potential contender.
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17. St. Louis Cardinals
1 of 17
The Ace
RHP Sonny Gray
24 GS, 11 QS, 4.06 ERA (3.11 FIP), 1.15 WHIP, 148 K, 135.1 IP
Gray got knocked around a bit in his most recent postseason start in the 2023 ALDS as a member of the Twins (4.0 IP, 8 H, 4 ER), but he has generally been solid in October with a 3.26 ERA in 30.1 career playoff innings. The 35-year-old shut down the Dodgers (7.0 IP, 1 H, 1 ER) and Cubs (7.0 IP, 5 H, 2 ER) in his first two August starts.
The Other Locks
LHP Matthew Liberatore
22 GS, 10 QS, 4.08 ERA (3.75 FIP), 1.29 WHIP, 88 K, 117.0 IP
RHP Michael McGreevy
8 GS, 4 QS, 4.41 ERA (3.56 FIP), 1.22 WHIP, 28 K, 51.0 IP
This duo is providing plenty of optimism for the future of the St. Louis rotation, and both have outpitched Miles Mikolas to the point that they should be the favorites to start Game 2 and Game 3 in a best-of-five series. McGreevy has three excellent starts, one so-so outing and one dud since replacing Erick Fedde in the rotation in late July.
The Game 4 Candidates
RHP Miles Mikolas
23 GS, 7 QS, 4.97 ERA (4.77 FIP), 1.28 WHIP, 79 K, 117.2 IP
RHP Andre Pallante
23 GS, 8 QS, 4.95 ERA (4.51 FIP), 1.37 WHIP, 80 K, 123.2 IP
Mikolas can still turn in a solid outing now and then, but his middling stuff gives him a very thin margin for error, and that's a slippery slope in October. Then again, Pallante just served up seven hits and six earned runs in 1.2 innings against the rival Cubs last weekend, so Mikolas might still be their best Game 4 option.
16. Cleveland Guardians
2 of 17
The Ace
RHP Gavin Williams
24 GS, 10 QS, 3.38 ERA (4.57 FIP), 1.31 WHIP, 127 K, 128.0 IP
Williams took a step backward in 2024 following a strong rookie season, but he has been the Guardians' best starter this year. His AL-leading 67 walks are a bit scary, and he can still lay an egg as he did on Wednesday (3.0 IP, 5 H, 4 ER), but that start was preceded by 8.1 innings of no-hit ball in his previous outing before Juan Soto spoiled things with a solo home run.
The Other Locks
RHP Tanner Bibee
23 GS, 8 QS, 4.60 ERA (4.52 FIP), 1.28 WHIP, 119 K, 131.0 IP
LHP Logan Allen
22 GS, 6 QS, 3.94 ERA (4.40 FIP), 1.38 WHIP, 92 K, 118.2 IP
The Guardians actually took Williams (first round) and Bibee (fifth round) in the same 2021 draft class, and now they could be starting Game 1 and Game 2 of a playoff series. Allen got off to a shaky start this season, but he has settled in nicely with a 3.53 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 63.2 innings over his last 11 starts.
The Game 4 Candidates
RHP Slade Cecconi
15 GS, 7 QS, 4.11 ERA (4.75 FIP), 1.25 WHIP, 73 K, 85.1 IP
LHP Joey Cantillo
7 GS, 0 QS, 4.11 ERA (3.92 FIP), 1.40 WHIP, 75 K, 61.1 IP
After struggling to a 6.66 ERA in 77 innings with the D-backs last season, Cecconi has put together a solid first season in Cleveland after coming over in the Josh Naylor deal in December. Cantillo has better numbers as a reliever (21 G, 3.81 ERA, 11.4 K/9, 28.1 IP) than he does as a starter (7 GS, 4.36 ERA, 10.6 K/9, 33.0 IP), and he would likely work out of the bullpen in October.
15. New York Mets
3 of 17
The Ace
LHP David Peterson
23 GS, 14 QS, 3.30 ERA (3.49 FIP), 1.28 WHIP, 117 K, 136.1 IP
Peterson made four relief appearances and started Game 5 of the NLCS during the Mets playoff run a year ago, and now he finds himself in the role of staff ace in a rotation that has struggled to find any consistency during the second half. His 14 quality starts are tied for ninth among NL starters, though he was knocked around on Wednesday when he allowed five hits, five walks and six earned runs in 3.1 innings.
The Other Locks
RHP Kodai Senga
18 GS, 6 QS, 2.30 ERA (4.04 FIP), 1.25 WHIP, 88 K, 94.0 IP
LHP Sean Manaea
5 GS, 0 QS, 4.33 ERA (3.81 FIP), 1.11 WHIP, 30 K, 27.0 IP
Senga is having a great season overall, but he has struggled since returning from a hamstring strain that cost him a month on July 11, posting a 5.31 ERA in 20.1 innings over five starts. Manaea signed a three-year, $75 million deal during the offseason to rejoin the Mets, but his season debut was delayed until July 13 as he navigated oblique and elbow issues, and he has yet to complete six innings in a start.
The Game 4 Candidates
RHP Clay Holmes
24 GS, 6 QS, 3.71 ERA (4.19 FIP), 1.35 WHIP, 101 K, 126.0 IP
RHP Nolan McLean
18 GS, 9 QS, 2.45 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 127 K, 113.2 IP at AA/AAA
Holmes had a 2.99 ERA in 93.1 innings over his first 17 starts, but he has struggled to a 5.79 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over his last seven outings, and his track record of pitching in relief makes him a candidate to be dropped to the bullpen. McLean will make his MLB debut on Saturday, and the No. 47 prospect on the B/R Top 100 list has a chance to be a major X-factor down the stretch.
14. Kansas City Royals
4 of 17
The Ace
RHP Seth Lugo
23 GS, 11 QS, 3.77 ERA (4.88 FIP), 1.24 WHIP, 110 K, 131.1 IP
Viewed as a potential trade candidate as the deadline approached with free agency looming, Lugo instead inked a two-year, $46 million extension with the Royals on July 27. He pitched well in his first two career playoff starts last season, taking the ball in Game 2 of the ALWC (4.1 IP, 5 H, 1 ER) and Game 3 of the ALDS (5.0 IP, 2 H, 2 ER).
The Other Locks
RHP Michael Wacha
24 GS, 11 QS, 3.35 ERA (3.65 FIP), 1.15 WHIP, 101 K, 137.0 IP
LHP Noah Cameron
16 GS, 7 QS, 2.52 ERA (3.66 FIP), 1.03 WHIP, 76 K, 93.0 IP
The resume could not be more different for these two pitchers. Wacha is a 34-year-old veteran with 46.2 career postseason innings and 2013 NLCS MVP honors on his resume, while Cameron is a 26-year-old rookie who made his MLB debut earlier this year when he rattled off five straight quality starts to begin his time in the big leagues. With Kris Bubic and Cole Ragans both on the shelf, these two are being counted on for a bigger role than expected.
The Game 4 Candidates
RHP Ryan Bergert
9 GS, 0 QS, 2.87 ERA (4.02 FIP), 1.09 WHIP, 44 K, 47.0 IP
RHP Michael Lorenzen
18 GS, 7 QS, 4.61 ERA (4.55 FIP), 1.30 WHIP, 85 K, 99.2 IP
Bergert has looked solid in a pair of starts with the Royals since he was acquired at the deadline in the deal that sent catcher Freddy Fermin to San Diego, while Lorenzen has been sidelined since July 12 with an oblique strain. Both could end up on the playoff roster in some capacity if the Royals can claw back into the wild-card picture.
13. New York Yankees
5 of 17
The Ace
LHP Max Fried
24 GS, 14 QS, 2.94 ERA (3.16 FIP), 1.10 WHIP, 135 K, 144.0 IP
Fried had a 1.92 ERA through his first 17 starts and looked like one of the AL Cy Young front-runners, but the wheels have fallen off over the past two months. In his last seven starts, he has a 6.00 ERA and 1.56 WHIP, and he has completed six innings just twice during that span. Can he right the ship in time to pitch like the ace the Yankees were expecting when he inked an eight-year, $218 million deal?
The Other Locks
LHP Carlos Rodón
25 GS, 11 QS, 3.25 ERA (3.84 FIP), 1.06 WHIP, 164 K, 146.2 IP
RHP Luis Gil
2 GS, 0 QS, 7.27 ERA (4.03 FIP), 1.85 WHIP, 10 K, 8.2 IP
Rodón has been rock solid all season, and he is coming off one of his best starts of the year on Tuesday when he allowed just one hit over seven innings to pick up his 12th win of the season. Gil missed the first 111 games of the season recovering from a lat strain he suffered during spring training, but he looked good in his second start back (5.1 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 91 pitches) on Aug. 9 and seems a lock if things are going well in September.
The Game 4 Candidates
RHP Will Warren
25 GS, 5 QS, 4.34 ERA (3.68 FIP), 1.37 WHIP, 140 K, 122.1 IP
RHP Cam Schlitter
6 GS, 0 QS, 3.94 ERA (5.23 FIP), 1.52 WHIP, 30 K, 29.2 IP
Warren is throwing the ball extremely well right now with a 1.53 ERA and .188 opponents' batting average in 17.2 innings over his last three starts, and he will be waiting in the wings if Gil stumbles down the stretch. Schlitter has looked good enough to warrant a roster spot as a long reliever, helping to fill the void created by Clarke Schmidt's injury.
12. Houston Astros
6 of 17
The Ace
RHP Hunter Brown
24 GS, 15 QS, 2.45 ERA (2.92 FIP), 1.00 WHIP, 164 K, 143.0 IP
Brown has pitched well enough this year to supplant Framber Valdez as the ace of the staff, despite Valdez owning a longer postseason track record and serving as the team's Opening Day starter each of the past four seasons. Brown has completed at least six innings in 16 of his 24 starts, and he could be headed for a top-five finish in AL Cy Young voting.
The Other Lock
LHP Framber Valdez
23 GS, 16 QS, 2.97 ERA (2.96 FIP), 1.16 WHIP, 145 K, 145.2 IP
Valdez is having another terrific season, and with 85 playoff innings under his belt, he is no stranger to the bright lights of October. However, he has been hit hard in the playoffs the last two years, going 0-4 with an 8.27 ERA in 16.1 innings. The free-agent-to-be will need to be on his game for the Astros to make a deep postseason run.
The Game 3/4 Candidates
RHP Jason Alexander
5 GS, 3 QS, 5.02 ERA (4.80 FIP), 1.46 WHIP, 29 K, 37.2 IP
RHP Cristian Javier
1 GS, 0 QS, 3.60 ERA (4.91 FIP), 1.00 WHIP, 5 K, 5.0 IP
RHP Spencer Arrighetti
4 GS, 1 QS, 6.38 ERA (4.91 FIP), 1.47 WHIP, 16 K, 18.1 IP
Arrighetti (Aug. 6) and Javier (Aug. 11) recently returned to action after extended stints on the injured list, with the latter making his long-awaited return from Tommy John surgery. Alexander was claimed off waivers from the Athletics in May, and he has a 2.56 ERA in 31.2 innings with the Astros. He has turned in consecutive quality starts against the Marlins (6.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER) and Yankees (6.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER) on the road, and is making a compelling case for a significant role.
11. Boston Red Sox
7 of 17
The Ace
LHP Garrett Crochet
24 GS, 15 QS, 2.48 ERA (2.53 FIP), 1.10 WHIP, 188 K, 152.1 IP
The Red Sox paid a steep prospect price to acquire Crochet in December and inked him to a six-year, $170 million extension, and he has lived up to the hype and thrived in the role of staff ace in his first season in Boston. The 26-year-old is light on playoff experience, but he did toss three scoreless innings of relief out of the White Sox bullpen during the 2020 and 2021 postseasons.
The Other Locks
RHP Brayan Bello
20 GS, 12 QS, 3.25 ERA (4.16 FIP), 1.29 WHIP, 95 K, 121.2 IP
RHP Lucas Giolito
18 GS, 11 QS, 3.77 ERA (4.43 FIP), 1.25 WHIP, 82 K, 100.1 IP
Bello and Giolito have been steady middle-of-the-rotation options for the Red Sox this season and should round out a best-of-five series rotation. Bello had a streak of 14 straight starts where he allowed three or fewer earned runs snapped on Sunday, but he has been pitching like a legitimate No. 2 option.
The Game 4 Candidates
RHP Walker Buehler
21 GS, 7 QS, 5.43 ERA (5.88 FIP), 1.55 WHIP, 78 K, 106.0 IP
RHP Dustin May
20 GS, 9 QS, 4.67 ERA (4.47 FIP), 1.35 WHIP, 109 K, 113.2 IP
With a 3.04 ERA in 94.2 career playoff innings, Buehler is the leading candidate for a Game 4 start, despite a lackluster season overall. However, May tossed six shutout innings on the road against the Astros in his most recent start, and stringing together a few outings like that will make the decision a lot tougher.
10. Chicago Cubs
8 of 17
The Ace
LHP Matthew Boyd
23 GS, 15 QS, 2.45 ERA (3.13 FIP), 1.05 WHIP, 121 K, 135.2 IP
Signed to a two-year, $29 million deal after making just eight starts in 2024, Boyd has put together a career year in his Cubs debut, earning his first All-Star selection and helping to ease the loss of Justin Steele. He pitched great in three playoff starts for the Guardians last year, posting a 0.77 ERA with 14 strikeouts in 11.2 innings.
The Other Locks
LHP Shota Imanaga
17 GS, 7 QS, 3.19 ERA (4.32 FIP), 0.97 WHIP, 79 K, 96.0 IP
RHP Cade Horton
15 GS, 3 QS, 3.07 ERA (3.73 FIP), 1.18 WHIP, 67 K, 85.0 IP
Imanaga missed nearly two months with a hamstring injury, but he has a 3.51 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 51.1 innings over nine starts since returning to action on June 26. Horton, one of the top pitching prospects in baseball entering the year, has really hit his stride after some early inconsistency, posting a 1.13 ERA and 0.88 WHIP over his last seven starts while allowing zero earned runs in five of those outings.
The Game 4 Candidates
RHP Jameson Taillon
17 GS, 10 QS, 4.44 ERA (5.18 FIP), 1.11 WHIP, 74 K, 95.1 IP
RHP Colin Rea
20 GS, 6 QS, 4.09 ERA (4.67 FIP), 1.29 WHIP, 85 K, 116.2 IP
Taillon has not pitched since June 29 while nursing a right calf strain, but he has three rehab starts at Triple-A Iowa under his belt and should return soon. Rea has chewed up some league-average innings this season, but the Game 4 nod will likely go to Taillon if he can shake off the rust in time.
9. San Diego Padres
9 of 17
The Ace
RHP Dylan Cease
24 GS, 7 QS, 4.52 ERA (3.43 FIP), 1.28 WHIP, 169 K, 129.1 IP
Nick Pivetta has better numbers, but Cease is the ace of the staff for the Padres and the likely Game 1 starter in a playoff series. After a shaky month of July, he has looked sharp in August starts against the Cardinals (5.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER) and Red Sox (6.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER), and he will be pitching for a hefty free-agency contract this winter.
The Other Locks
RHP Nick Pivetta
24 GS, 15 QS, 2.87 ERA (3.26 FIP), 0.95 WHIP, 144 K, 141.1 IP
RHP Yu Darvish
7 GS, 2 QS, 5.61 ERA (4.09 FIP), 1.22 WHIP, 29 K, 33.2 IP
The four-year, $55 million deal Pivetta inked during the offseason has turned out to be one of the best signings of the offseason, and his 15 quality starts trail only Cristopher Sánchez (17), Zack Wheeler (16) and Logan Webb (16) among NL pitchers. Darvish did not make his season debut until July 7, but he is rounding into form with a 2.12 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 17 innings over his last three outings.
The Game 4 Candidates
RHP Michael King
11 GS, 2 QS, 2.81 ERA (3.30 FIP), 1.09 WHIP, 65 K, 57.2 IP
LHP Nestor Cortes
4 GS, 1 QS, 5.71 ERA (7.89 FIP), 1.56 WHIP, 17 K, 17.1 IP
King was activated from the injured list on Aug. 9 after missing nearly three months, and he lasted just two innings in his return, allowing four hits, two walks and two earned runs. He had a 2.59 ERA in 55.2 innings over his first 10 starts before he was shelved with a shoulder injury, and he will be given every opportunity to seize the Game 4 starter role. Otherwise, the Padres could use Nestor Cortes as a bulk option in a bullpen game.
8. Milwaukee Brewers
10 of 17
The Ace
RHP Freddy Peralta
25 GS, 10 QS, 2.90 ERA (3.73 FIP), 1.12 WHIP, 148 K, 136.2 IP
Not long ago, Peralta was the best No. 3 starter in baseball behind Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, but he has become the unquestioned ace of the Milwaukee staff the last two years. The 29-year-old has a 4.00 ERA in 18 innings over six career playoff appearances spanning three starts and three relief outings.
The Other Locks
RHP Brandon Woodruff
7 GS, 5 QS, 2.06 ERA (3.62 FIP), 0.74 WHIP, 49 K, 39.1 IP
RHP Jacob Misiorowski
7 GS, 2 QS, 2.70 ERA (3.11 FIP), 0.96 WHIP, 47 K, 33.1 IP
The Brewers signed Woodruff to a two-year, $17.5 million deal after non-tendering him prior to the 2024 campaign, knowing he would spend the bulk of that contract rehabbing from shoulder surgery. He returned to the mound on July 6, and he has been absolutely dealing. Assuming he's healthy, rookie phenom Misiorowski should be the guy in Game 3, though he is currently on the IL with a left tibia contusion after he was hit with a line drive.
The Game 4 Candidates
LHP Jose Quintana
18 GS, 6 QS, 3.44 ERA (4.73 FIP), 1.30 WHIP, 69 K, 99.1 IP
RHP Quinn Priester
17 GS, 7 QS, 3.49 ERA (4.21 FIP), 1.24 WHIP, 95 K, 118.2 IP
It speaks to the depth the Brewers have on the mound right now that these are their candidates for a Game 4 start, while standout rookies Logan Henderson and Chad Patrick have spent time in Triple-A waiting in the wings. Quintana has a 3.55 ERA in 33 career playoff innings, and that experience could give him the edge.
7. Detroit Tigers
11 of 17
The Ace
LHP Tarik Skubal
23 GS, 14 QS, 2.35 ERA (2.12 FIP), 0.86 WHIP, 187 K, 145.1 IP
The Tigers will go as far as Skubal can carry them in the postseason, as he is the single most important player on the Detroit roster and one of the few pitchers in baseball capable of a Madison Bumgarner-esque run through October. He tossed six shutout innings in Game 1 of the ALWC and seven shutout innings in Game 2 of the ALDS, but he allowed six hits and five earned runs over six innings to take the loss in the decisive Game 5.
The Other Locks
RHP Jack Flaherty
24 GS, 9 QS, 4.76 ERA (3.99 FIP), 1.31 WHIP, 153 K, 124.2 IP
RHP Casey Mize
20 GS, 7 QS, 3.50 ERA (4.20 FIP), 1.27 WHIP, 93 K, 105.1 IP
The Tigers are not paying Flaherty $25 million so he can watch from the sidelines in October, so expect him to be the Game 2 starter, despite an up-and-down season overall. Mize was an All-Star, but he has a 5.40 ERA in four starts since the break. A.J. Hinch does not have the same lockdown bullpen depth he did a year ago, but both guys could still get a quick hook if it doesn't look like they have it.
The Game 4 Candidates
RHP Chris Paddack
24 GS, 6 QS, 4.76 ERA (4.44 FIP), 1.22 WHIP, 92 K, 126.2 IP
RHP Charlie Morton
19 GS, 7 QS, 5.48 ERA (4.74 FIP), 1.53 WHIP, 117 K, 111.2 IP
The Tigers' two deadline pickups are likely competing for a potential Game 4 starter down the stretch, with Paddack (3 GS, 3.45 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 15.2 IP) outpitching Morton (2 GS, 6.10 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 10.1 IP) in the early going. Troy Melton and Keider Montero will be candidates for multi-inning relief work.
6. Cincinnati Reds
12 of 17
The Ace
RHP Hunter Greene
12 GS, 6 QS, 2.47 ERA (3.22 FIP), 0.93 WHIP, 79 K, 65.2 IP
With a six-year extension on the books and a pair of Opening Day starts under his belt, Greene is the unquestioned ace of the Reds staff, even in a year when he has battled injury issues. He tossed six shutout innings on Wednesday in his first start since June 3 after missing significant time with a groin strain, and as long as he stays healthy, he will be the guy for a Game 1 start.
The Other Locks
LHP Nick Lodolo
23 GS, 13 QS, 3.05 ERA (3.71 FIP), 1.03 WHIP, 124 K, 129.2 IP
LHP Andrew Abbott
21 GS, 9 QS, 2.41 ERA (3.65 FIP), 1.11 WHIP, 105 K, 123.0 IP
Lodolo is dealing with a blister that has sidelined him since Aug. 4, but he had a 2.02 ERA over 49 innings in eight starts prior to that issue, including the first complete game shutout of his career on July 23. Abbott was an All-Star for the first time this year, and while he has not matched the 2.07 ERA he logged during the first half, he has still been rock solid.
The Game 4 Candidates
RHP Brady Singer
24 GS, 10 QS, 4.31 ERA (4.00 FIP), 1.31 WHIP, 119 K, 125.1 IP
RHP Nick Martinez
23 GS, 10 QS, 4.49 ERA (4.12 FIP), 1.19 WHIP, 97 K, 136.1 IP
RHP Zack Littell
24 GS, 14 QS, 3.60 ERA (4.73 FIP), 1.12 WHIP, 100 K, 145.0 IP
RHP Chase Burns
8 GS, 2 QS, 5.24 ERA (2.44 FIP), 1.34 WHIP, 57 K, 34.1 IP
Singer likely gets the nod over Martinez and Littell, who both have experience pitching in relief. The question is whether Burns can show enough down the stretch to force his way into the conversation; and with 10 strikeouts in four of his last five starts, he has the potential to dominate.
5. Toronto Blue Jays
13 of 17
The Ace
RHP Kevin Gausman
24 GS, 12 QS, 3.79 ERA (3.81 FIP), 1.05 WHIP, 138 K, 142.2 IP
Gausman has made two playoff starts in a Blue Jays uniform, as he took the ball in Game 2 of the 2022 ALWC (5.2 IP, 5 H, 4 ER) and Game 1 of the 2023 ALWC (4.0 IP, 3 H, 3 ER). With a 2.54 ERA in 56.2 innings over his last nine starts, he is the de facto ace of a Blue Jays rotation that could really be deployed in any order.
The Other Locks
RHP José Berríos
25 GS, 13 QS, 3.74 ERA (4.42 FIP), 1.26 WHIP, 119 K, 142.0 IP
RHP Max Scherzer
9 GS, 4 QS, 4.21 ERA (4.62 FIP), 1.11 WHIP, 49 K, 47.0 IP
Berríos (5 GS, 3.71 ERA, 26.2 IP) and Scherzer (4 GS, 3.75 ERA, 24.0 IP) have slightly better numbers than Chris Bassitt (5 GS, 4.39 ERA, 26.2 IP) since the All-Star break, but it will be a matter of playing the hot hand behind Gausman for Game 2 and Game 3 starters.
The Game 4 Candidates
RHP Chris Bassitt
24 GS, 10 QS, 4.17 ERA (4.17 FIP), 1.32 WHIP, 128 K, 133.2 IP
LHP Eric Lauer
13 GS, 4 QS, 2.82 ERA (3.54 FIP), 1.06 WHIP, 83 K, 83.0 IP
RHP Shane Bieber
6 GS, 2.45 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 33 K, 22.0 IP on MiLB rehab assignment
Bassitt is the most likely Game 4 starter as things stand, but a strong return to action from Bieber as he continues to inch closer to a return from Tommy John surgery could shake things up. Lauer has also been quietly excellent since making a full-time move into the rotation in the middle of June, logging a 3.16 ERA in 57 innings over 11 starts.
4. Texas Rangers
14 of 17
The Ace
RHP Nathan Eovaldi
20 GS, 12 QS, 1.71 ERA (2.76 FIP), 0.88 WHIP, 114 K, 116.0 IP
The fact that Eovaldi still has these numbers after allowing eight hits and five earned runs in five innings in his most recent outings speaks to what a phenomenal season he has put together. The 35-year-old is also a two-time World Series champion with nine wins and a 3.05 ERA in 79.2 career playoff innings. Move over, Jacob deGrom!
The Other Locks
RHP Jacob deGrom
23 GS, 13 QS, 2.86 ERA (3.53 FIP), 0.95 WHIP, 143 K, 135.1 IP
RHP Merrill Kelly
25 GS, 14 QS, 3.36 ERA (3.71 FIP), 1.09 WHIP, 136 K, 144.2 IP
The Rangers have arguably the best one-two punch of any playoff hopeful with Eovaldi and deGrom, but don't overlook the impact deadline pickup Kelly is capable of making in the postseason. He had a 2.25 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 24 innings over four starts during the D-backs' unexpected run to the World Series in 2023.
The Game 4 Candidates
RHP Jack Leiter
21 GS, 5 QS, 3.94 ERA (4.42 FIP), 1.34 WHIP, 96 K, 105.0 IP
LHP Patrick Corbin
22 GS, 5 QS, 4.00 ERA (4.25 FIP), 1.33 WHIP, 97 K, 117.0 IP
Who would have guessed we'd be talking about Corbin potentially starting a playoff game ever again after the way his tenure with the Nationals unfolded? That said, Leiter would probably be the guy if the decision were made today, as he has rattled off a 2.95 ERA in 39.2 innings over his last eight starts.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
15 of 17
The Ace
RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto
23 GS, 12 QS, 2.84 ERA (3.06 FIP), 1.09 WHIP, 145 K, 126.2 IP
The Dodgers have used 16 different starting pitchers this year, and Yamamoto is the only one on the roster who has logged more than 100 innings now that Dustin May is in Boston. With a 12-year, $365 million contract on the books, the Dodgers will give him every opportunity to prove he is one of baseball's bona fide aces in October.
The Other Locks
LHP Blake Snell
4 GS, 0 QS, 2.37 ERA (3.89 FIP), 1.53 WHIP, 22 K, 19.0 IP
RHP Tyler Glasnow
11 GS, 4 QS, 3.08 ERA (4.24 FIP), 1.12 WHIP, 64 K, 52.2 IP
Health is the big question mark with both of these pitchers, but if they can avoid the injury bug the rest of the way, they could be hitting their stride just as the playoffs begin. Snell missed four months with left shoulder inflammation, but he returned on Aug. 2 and struck out 10 over five scoreless innings against the Blue Jays on Aug. 9.
The Game 4 Candidates
LHP Clayton Kershaw
14 GS, 5 QS, 3.14 ERA (3.79 FIP), 1.26 WHIP, 46 K, 71.2 IP
RHP Shohei Ohtani
9 GS, 0 QS, 3.47 ERA (2.13 FIP), 1.11 WHIP, 32 K, 23.1 IP
Which of these future Hall of Famers will the Dodgers turn to in a potential Game 4 situation? Ohtani threw a season-high 80 pitches on Wednesday as he continues to build his arm back up following Tommy John surgery, while Kershaw has completed six innings in only six of his 14 starts, so either way the bullpen will be a significant factor.
2. Philadelphia Phillies
16 of 17
The Ace
RHP Zack Wheeler
23 GS, 16 QS, 2.68 ERA (2.92 FIP), 0.93 WHIP, 189 K, 144.2 IP
Now that Gerrit Cole (2023) and Chris Sale (2024) have finally taken home the hardware, Wheeler has a strong case for best active pitcher to never win a Cy Young Award, though he was runner-up in 2021 and 2024. He also has one of the best postseason track records of his era with a 2.18 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in 70.1 career innings.
The Other Locks
LHP Cristopher Sánchez
24 GS, 17 QS, 2.45 ERA (2.73 FIP), 1.09 WHIP, 157 K, 150.2 IP
LHP Ranger Suárez
18 GS, 12 QS, 3.28 ERA (3.26 FIP), 1.20 WHIP, 101 K, 112.1 IP
After a breakout 2024 season where he finished 10th in NL Cy Young voting, Sánchez has been even better this year, helping to pick up the slack with Aaron Nola battling injuries. Suárez has started games in the postseason each of the past three years and has been been brilliant, logging a 1.43 ERA in 37.2 innings over eight starts and two relief appearances.
The Game 4 Candidates
LHP Jesús Luzardo
24 GS, 13 QS, 4.20 ERA (3.04 FIP), 1.35 WHIP, 151 K, 133.0 IP
RHP Aaron Nola
9 GS, 3 QS, 6.16 ERA (5.04 FIP), 1.51 WHIP, 52 K, 49.2 IP
Nola has been sidelined since May 14, but he is expected to return to the active roster on Sunday after striking out 11 over 5.2 innings and reaching 84 pitches in his latest rehab start at Triple-A. He will be given every opportunity to pitch his way into the playoff rotation, with Luzardo as a capable alternative if he does not round into form.
1. Seattle Mariners
17 of 17
The Ace
RHP Bryan Woo
23 GS, 17 QS, 3.08 ERA (3.67 FIP), 0.95 WHIP, 145 K, 146.0 IP
The Mariners might still consider Opening Day starter Logan Gilbert to be their ace, and he is pitching well enough to warrant a Game 1 start, but Woo has been the best pitcher on the staff this year. The 25-year-old has completed six innings in every one of his 23 starts this year, and he has a 1.88 ERA in 18 starts against teams with a winning record.
The Other Locks
RHP Logan Gilbert
17 GS, 4 QS, 3.31 ERA (2.99 FIP), 0.98 WHIP, 124 K, 89.2 IP
RHP Luis Castillo
24 GS, 14 QS, 3.19 ERA (3.71 FIP), 1.19 WHIP, 120 K, 138.1 IP
RHP George Kirby
15 GS, 8 QS, 3.71 ERA (3.21 FIP), 1.07 WHIP, 90 K, 85.0 IP
Unlike every other team on this list, there really is no debate about which four pitchers will make up the Mariners rotation in a best-of-seven series. The question is which one gets left on the sidelines during a best-of-five series, and that could simply come down to who has the hot hand. Kirby has the worst ERA of the bunch overall, but he has a 2.32 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in five starts since the All-Star break.
The Game 4 Candidates
RHP Logan Evans
14 GS, 2 QS, 4.36 ERA (5.06 FIP), 1.39 WHIP, 57 K, 74.1 IP
Unless there is an injury, the four guys listed above will make up Seattle's playoff rotation. Evans does not necessarily have the type of repertoire that would play up in a bullpen role, so he could end up on the outside looking in for a postseason roster spot.
