Predicting 3 Most Likely Outcomes to Golden State Warriors' Jonathan Kuminga Problem
When the Golden State Warriors used the No. 7 pick in the 2021 NBA Draft to select Jonathan Kuminga, the organization's two-timeline approach appeared alive and well.
They were just a few years removed from the 2018 championship. Stephen Curry's presence on the roster suggested they should be invested in winning in the moment. Kevin Durant's departure suggested they could build with an eye toward the future.
Getting top-seven picks in back-to-back drafts (they took James Wiseman in 2020) made the front office believe it could walk both paths.
Now, after nearly a half-decade of not being able or willing to fully commit to either, Kuminga's rookie contract is expired, and he entered restricted free agency in a summer in which there was almost no cap space available around the league.
That means Kuminga has little to no leverage to use in negotiations with an incumbent team that isn't eager to give him a big contract. If some rebuilding squad was willing to give him an offer sheet for $25-30 million a year, he could drive up his price with the Warriors or sign it and make them match the deal.
Instead, Golden State is entertaining sign-and-trade offers for the soon-to-be-23-year old forward. And Kuminga is entertaining the possibility of playing one more season for the Warriors on the $7.9 million qualifying offer the Warriors had to make him to secure his restricted free-agency rights.
Well over a month into 2025 free agency, we still don't have a clear indication of how this situation will be resolved.
So today, we're going to comb through weeks of reporting on this saga, peer into a crystal ball and predict the likeliest outcomes for Kuminga and the Warriors.
3. A Wild-Card Suitor
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Kuminga obviously isn't as high-profile a trade candidate as Kawhi Leonard or Damian Lillard, but the resolution of their respective trade sagas were good reminders that the NBA can still surprise us.
In 2018, Kawhi wound up with a Toronto Raptors team that eventually won the 2019 Finals. And just two years ago, the Milwaukee Bucks outbid the Miami Heat and landed Lillard. Both destinations were shockers.
In Kuminga's case, despite relatively little reporting on specific teams that might be interested, it's not hard to imagine multiple suitors for a 22-year-old, high-end athlete who's averaged 15.8 points in just 25.6 minutes over the last two seasons.
Now, trades involving Kuminga are complicated by a rule in the collective bargaining agreement that will make his outgoing money worth only 50 percent of its actual value for salary-matching purposes (while the incoming player or players' salaries won't be affected in the same way).
But that might actually make a trade to a suitor we haven't heard about more likely. If Kuminga wants a $30 million starting salary, Golden State may need to widen its net to find potential returns making around $15 million.
Beyond that, Golden State isn't the only team in this situation with a restricted free agent. Josh Giddey, Quentin Grimes and Cam Thomas are all restricted free agents who remain unsigned. So, it's natural to wonder if any of the above could be swapped for the other.
Grimes may be too valuable to a Philadelphia 76ers team that should be angling toward a rebuild. Thomas might be even less of a "Warriors style" player than Kuminga. So that leaves Giddey, a stout rebounder and pass-first playmaker who might quickly adapt to Golden State's ball-movement and player-movement heavy attack.
Recent reporting threw a little cold water on the idea of a Kuminga-Giddey swap, but it feels like every option should still be on the table.
2. A Sign-and-Trade with Phoenix or Sacramento
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The two teams most commonly connected with Kuminga this summer have been the Sacramento Kings and Phoenix Suns. So, they land one spot above the wild cards by virtue of the "where there's smoke, there's fire" theory of NBA player movement.
At some point since free agency started, the Kings reportedly offered Malik Monk and a protected future first-rounder for Kuminga, while the Suns' offer generated "zero interest" from Golden State.
But there's still plenty of time between now and Kuminga's October 1 deadline for him to accept the Warriors' two-year, $45 million offer or the one-year, $7.9 million qualifying offer. And Sacramento and Phoenix can both bolster their respective trade offers between now and then.
Right now, each situation (particularly Sacramento's) feels like a bit of a staring contest. And if someone blinks, Kuminga could finally get the fresh start he appears to be after.
1. Kuminga Plays One Year on the Qualifying Offer
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When you compare the raw total dollars in the Warriors' two-year offer ($45 million) and their qualifying offer ($7.9 million), Kuminga accepting the former seems like a no-brainer.
But there are real reasons for Kuminga to bet on himself and take the smaller deal now.
For one thing, the qualifying offer guarantees re-entry into free agency next summer, only he'd be unrestricted. Golden State would no longer have the ability to match any offer sheet signed by Kuminga.
On the other hand, though the second year of the $45 million offer is reportedly non-guaranteed, it's the Warriors who'd have the ability to choose one way or the other on that. And if he were to play well in 2025-26, Golden State might want to keep his 2026-27 money on the books, if for no other reason than to use him as a trade chip.
If he plays a single season on the qualifying offer, he can spend all of 2025-26 trying to up his free-agency value for a summer when there should be more cap space available than there was in 2025.
There's certainly some risk all along that path. He could get hurt. He could continue to have a mostly undefined role under head coach Steve Kerr. There's a chance the "bet on yourself" approach would fail.
But it also has the most upside for Kuminga. And a sign-and-trade not materializing to this point is at least some evidence that it simply won't happen.
