Every MLB Team's Best-Case Scenario for Rest of 2025 Regular Season
With roughly 50 games remaining on each Major League Baseball team's regular-season schedule, we've cobbled together a list of best-case scenarios around the league.
Theoretically, every team's best-case scenario is "win every remaining game." If that's on the table, well, shoot, even the Colorado Rockies are still a couple weeks away from being mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, while the Milwaukee Brewers could make history with 118 wins.
But there's an implied realistic before "best-case scenario" here, in which the dozen teams with at least a 60 percent chance of making the playoffs are setting their sights on a No. 1 seed, the eight teams in the four percent to 60 percent range are hoping to still be playing in October and the 10 effectively dead teams are looking to identify hope for a better 2026 campaign.
Teams are presented in alphabetical order within their division, beginning as we typically do with the AL East before progressing to the NL West.
American League East
1 of 6
Baltimore Orioles (51-63): A promising finish from the injured starting pitchers
Grayson Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells are A) key components of Baltimore's long-term pitching plans, each under team control through at least 2027 and B) three right-handers who have yet to throw a pitch in the majors this season. Both Bradish and Wells are nearing a return from Tommy John surgery, but goodness only knows when G-Rod will be back. Finding out which of those pitchers they can theoretically count on as rotation fixtures in 2026 would be a huge help as they look to reload this winter.
Boston Red Sox (64-51): Keep surging all the way to the AL's No. 1 seed
From two games below .500 on the morning of July 4 to 13 games over .500 at the end of play on August 5, no one has been hotter than Boston. Jarren Duran, Roman Anthony and Trevor Story have been awesome at the dish, while a once problematic bullpen has become a five-deep, near-impenetrable force. Well, don't stop now. Even with an underwhelming approach to the trade deadline, the Red Sox are right there in the mix for best in the American League.
New York Yankees (60-54): Get Aaron Judge healthy, quit underachieving and turn this season back around
Though the vast majority of Yankees fans have precisely zero faith in Aaron Boone to right this sinking ship, there's still plenty of time to get back on track. Judge returned to the lineup on Tuesday, this coming a few days after 2024 AL ROY Luis Gil made his 2025 debut. If he reharnesses his form from last year, if Max Fried and Carlos Rodón get back to shoving like they did for the first few months of this season and if the trade deadline bullpen acquisitions quit imploding left and right, let's just say the Yankees—who have allowed the second-most runs in the majors dating back to June 23—have the offensive firepower to go on a tear.
Tampa Bay Rays (56-59): Finalize the sale and maybe get Shane McClanahan back
The $1.7 billion sale of the team ought to be finalized in September, at which point they can figure out more concrete short- and long-term plans for where the team will play. But between the foul poles, the Rays have lost 23 of their last 32 games, plummeting from a virtual tie atop the AL East to a virtual non-factor in the playoff race. Whether they're still fighting for this October or just trying to figure out what they've got for next season, getting Shane McClanahan back on the mound sure would be swell, as it's now been more than two full calendar years since his last appearance.
Toronto Blue Jays (67-48): Win the AL East for just the second time in more than three decades
The "three decades" part is whatever as far as the goal is concerned, but Toronto understands the perils of not securing a first-round bye, immediately swept out of the playoffs in the wild-card round in each of its last three trips to the postseason. But could the addition of Shane Bieber be just what the doctor ordered for a Blue Jays team that has (like the Dodgers) needed to overcome sub-mediocre pitching to produce one of the best records in baseball? His season debut should be coming soon, and we can't wait to see if he'll blossom into a potential Game 1 starter or sputter his way to being left off the postseason roster.
American League Central
2 of 6
Chicago White Sox (42-71): Lock up best lottery odds while establishing some building blocks
I mean, that's the goal of tanking, right? Don't spend a ton of money, lose enough to get great draft picks and find a few gems along the way. And they seem to have done that with 2021 first-round pick Colson Montgomery, who is on a run of eight home runs in the span of 12 games, just one month into his big league career. Find one more potential foundational piece while staying "ahead" of Atlanta, Pittsburgh and the Athletics for lottery odds.
Cleveland Guardians (58-55): Survive the gambling scandal and maybe even go on a "nobody believes in us" run to the postseason
Losing Emmanuel Clase to the restricted list was supposed to be the death of a team that was already below .500. Instead, it has been something of a rallying cry for the Guardians, who have won back-to-back-to-back series against the Rockies, Twins and Mets. And with 12 straight against the White Sox, Miami, Atlanta and Arizona on tap, they could close that 1.5-game gap in the wild-card race in a hurry. Maybe they band together and finish with a flourish on par with the 38-18 run to the finish line three years ago.
Detroit Tigers (66-49): Heal up and heat back up en route to the best record in baseball
Detroit was running away with the best record in baseball a month ago, but 15 losses in the span of 22 games has changed things. The Tigers still have a nice, seven-game cushion atop this division, but are Alex Cobb and José Urquidy ever going to make their 2025 debuts? Is Reese Olson returning in the postseason a viable possibility? Or are deadline acquisitions Charlie Morton and Chris Paddack going to be staples in the rotation the rest of the way, and possibly into October? While Tarik Skubal remains a sensational ace, the answers to those questions will dictate how seriously people take the Tigers as a World Series threat.
Kansas City Royals (56-58): Ride the new outfield to the promised land
In addition to shipping Freddy Fermin to San Diego for Stephen Kolek and Ryan Bergert and scooping up Bailey Falter from Pittsburgh, Kansas City acquired all of Adam Frazier, Randal Grichuk and Mike Yastrzemski as veterans who frankly can't be any less productive than the outfield this team previously had in place. Only the Rangers have allowed fewer runs this season than the Royals, but only Pittsburgh has scored fewer runs than Kansas City. If Yaz and Co. spark something, watch out.
Minnesota Twins (53-60): Find some way to win back the fans
There's almost always some fringe playoff hopeful that limps through the second half of July before throwing in the towel. But while fans have been begging the Pohlad family to sell the team, stripping the roster for parts and embracing what may well be a painful rebuild isn't what they meant. Retaining $33 million in the Carlos Correa salary dump was a real Colorado Rockies-style kick in the teeth from which a lot of fans might not recover, and the Twins brass needs to figure out how to mend that rift—while potentially making a run at the White Sox for the worst record in the AL.
American League West
3 of 6
Athletics (50-65): Establish some pitching worth building around
Notably, this has already begun. A's pitching was catastrophic in May (6.88 ERA), but it's been plenty serviceable over the past month. Their offseason investments in Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs haven't looked too shabby lately, while both Jacob Lopez and J.T. Ginn have become productive regulars in the rotation. If that continues and they identify a viable closer now Mason Miller is in San Diego, the A's could be a contender in 2026.
Houston Astros (64-50): Keep getting healthy and win the AL West yet again
Jeremy Peña returned from the IL last week. Spencer Arrighetti did the same on Wednesday. Yordan Alvarez, Jake Meyers, Cristian Javier, J.P. France and Lance McCullers Jr. are all getting close, too. Add all that to the splashy additions of Carlos Correa and Jesús Sánchez at the deadline and the cavalry appears to be coming for a bruised and battered team that has lost 15 of its last 24 games. The Astros have managed to maintain a three-game lead in the division, though, and might just about cruise to that crown if a decent chunk of those returnees hit the ground running.
Los Angeles Angels (55-59): Go on a run and end the decade-long drought
Since dropping the "of Anaheim" from their name before the 2016 campaign, the Angels haven't even finished a season with a .500 or better record, let alone made the postseason. But at five games back in the wild-card picture, there's at least a snowball's chance of them finally getting over that hump and getting Mike Trout back to the playoffs. Though, with series remaining against Houston (two), Seattle, Detroit, Milwaukee, the Cubs and the Dodgers, it would take a near-miracle to do it.
Seattle Mariners (61-53): Mash their way to the AL's No. 1 seed
Despite Eugenio Suárez going 2-for-17 with no RBI in his first four games back with Seattle, the M's took three out of four in a massive series with the Rangers and could be on their way to leaving that division rival in the dust. Once Suárez and Josh Naylor join forces with Cal Raleigh, Randy Arozarena and Julio Rodríguez and start really contributing, Seattle has a roster that could (and a plenty favorable enough schedule to) go on two-month sprint to October and become the team to beat in the American League.
Texas Rangers (60-55): Pitch their way back to a possible repeat of 2023
The trio of Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and newest Ranger Merrill Kelly is about as formidable as it gets atop a rotation, and the offense sure has turned a corner since late June, averaging 3.6 runs in the first 79 games compared to 5.4 in the 36 games since. Can the other 40 percent of the rotation and a bullpen lacking for a legitimate closer take care of the rest? Or will the Rangers be the hard-luck loser in what is shaping up to be a "seven teams for six spots" kerfuffle to the AL's finish line?
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National League East
4 of 6
Atlanta Braves (47-65): No. More. Injuries.
AJ Smith-Shawver is already out for what might be the entirety of 2026 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Ronald Acuña Jr., Chris Sale, Austin Riley, Reynaldo López and Spencer Schwellenbach are all in the "currently on the IL, but might return this season" department. No reason whatsoever to rush any of those guys back, as they are all crucial pieces of the 2026 puzzle. And, frankly, losses are wins at this point, as Atlanta's goal has unofficially become drafting as high as possible in 2026.
Miami Marlins (55-57): Fish Around and Find Out?
With a negative-50 run differential and a spot seven games (and four teams) back for the last NL wild-card spot, Miami's playoff odds are rather slim. However, we're talking best-case scenarios here, and the Marlins shocked us all by sneaking in with a negative-57 run differential two years ago. So, why not? We expected a contender to buy low on Sandy Alcantara's expected progression to the mean, but maybe he can just "2008 CC Sabathia" the Marlins back into this thing instead.
New York Mets (63-51): Ride the remodeled bullpen to the NL's No. 1 seed
The trio of Ryan Helsley, Tyler Rogers and Gregory Soto went 8.2 innings before allowing its first earned run with the Mets on Wednesday night. And, well, that's exactly why they gave up eight prospects to bring those arms into the fold. Going the rest of the season without giving up runs is wholly unrealistic, but if they continue to pitch well in setting the table for Edwin Díaz, the Mets might get back to mowing through the competition like they did during that 45-24 start to the season.
Philadelphia Phillies (65-48): Win the NL East while figuring out which bullpen arms can be trusted even a little in October
On the bullpen front, Jhoan Durán has already been everything the Phillies hoped they were getting in a closer. However, David Robertson has been getting shelled in Triple-A since the Phillies signed him, and it might be up to Orion Kerkering, Matt Strahm, Tanner Banks and (gulp) Jordan Romano to bridge the gap from this elite rotation to its newfound elite closer. It'd also be nice to establish a few reliable bats outside of Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Trea Turner, but it's those middle relief innings that feel like the disaster waiting to happen.
Washington Nationals (44-68): Identify a second pitcher worth bringing back in 2026
In refusing to trade away MacKenzie Gore with two-and-a-half years of team control remaining, the Nationals unofficially declared they plan on mattering again before he reaches free agency. But given how dreadful the pitching has been aside from Gore—and even he has a ghastly 13.21 ERA over his last four starts—is that a realistic goal? Josiah Gray should be back in 2026, if not before the end of this season. And there's still hope Cade Cavalli makes an impact one day. However, it sure doesn't feel like this rotation will be rivaling Philadelphia's any time soon.
National League Central
5 of 6
Chicago Cubs (65-48): Kyle Tucker and Seiya Suzuki heat back up and Cubs bash their way to the No. 1 seed
Once right there with Pete Crow-Armstrong for the title of "Chicago's most valuable bat," Tucker and Suzuki have managed just one home run and one stolen base apiece dating back to July 8, during which time the Cubs have gone 11-12. With this mediocre pitching staff and without those bats doing their thing, this team is simply nothing special. But when this offense locks in like it did for the first half of the season, the baby bears are tough to beat.
Cincinnati Reds (60-54): Overtake San Diego or New York for first postseason berth in a 162-game season since 2013
The Reds have just been kind of lingering on the fringe of the playoff picture for what has felt like the entire season, though they may be destined to remain on the outside looking in with A) the toughest remaining schedule in the majors and B) Nick Lodolo joining Hunter Greene on the IL this week. Both pitchers should be back before the end of August, though, and it has perpetually felt like Cincinnati is one "bat other than Elly De La Cruz catching fire" away from going on a tear. Can they overcome the three-game deficit?
Milwaukee Brewers (69-44): Get healthy while maintaining the best record in baseball
For as scorching hot as Milwaukee has been since mid-June, there's still a serious "imagine if they're at full strength in October" factor in play here, with all of Jacob Misiorowski, Jackson Chourio, Robert Gasser, Rhys Hoskins and Shelby Miller presently on the IL but likely to return in the next few weeks. The Brewers are already living their best-case scenario, though. Just got to keep it going for another couple months.
Pittsburgh Pirates (49-65): Paul Skenes wins franchise's first Cy Young since 1990
Establishing any of top pitching prospects Bubba Chandler, Hunter Barco or Tom Harrington as a 2026 running mate for Skenes would be fantastic, but so would celebrating a Cy Young award for the first time in 35 years. A triple crown is hopelessly out of the question with a 6-8 record, but Skenes leads all qualified pitchers with a 2.02 ERA and may well finish top-five in total strikeouts. Should be a fun race between Skenes and Philadelphia's co-aces.
St. Louis Cardinals (57-58): Borrow a page from the 2024 Detroit Tigers
St. Louis sold off its expiring assets at the trade deadline, so that's that, right? See you at the winter meetings after another lost season? Not so fast. The Cardinals do have a brutal remaining schedule with six games left against each of the Cubs, Brewers and Reds, but it was just last season that the sub-.500 Tigers unloaded Jack Flaherty and several other rentals before catching fire and making an improbable run to the postseason. Catching the Mets or Padres from 6.5 games back won't be easy, but catching fire in August used to be this club's M.O.
National League West
6 of 6
Arizona Diamondbacks (54-60): Establish a new dynamic duo of corner infielders
So long, Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez. Hello, Tyler Locklear and Blaze Alexander? The former was the best chip they got in the Suárez trade, while the latter is a prospect they've had high hopes about for a while now. And both have made a respectable impact thus far as regulars in August. Are they the future? Or more likely Jordan Lawlar, once he makes it back from his hamstring injury? The silver lining of the fire sale is they can try to figure that out now.
Colorado Rockies (30-83): Don't make dubious history
The Rockies entered the All-Star break with a 22-74 record, on pace for 125 losses. And though they have gone 8-9 thus far in the second half, they've done so with a run differential of negative-44 that suggests another lengthy losing skid is probably just around the corner. They need 11 more wins to match the White Sox's total from last season; a dozen to avoid joining Chicago in all-time futility.
Los Angeles Dodgers (66-48): Start living up to the hype and run away with the best record in baseball
Preseason dreams of breaking the all-time record for wins in a season officially went up in smoke before the trade deadline even arrived, as the Dodgers have yet to become the "contract deferrals-fueled supervillain" we were expecting. Pitching (and injuries) was the culprit through the first half of the season, but underwhelming offense has held them in check over the past six weeks. It could turn on a dime, though, especially with both Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell back in the rotation and Max Muncy back in the lineup.
San Diego Padres (63-51): Track down the Dodgers for a rare NL West crown
Not only did the Padres reload at the trade deadline with the addition of three pitchers and four position players, but Michael King also should be back from several months on the IL very soon. Could those reinforcements be enough to overtake Los Angeles for what would be San Diego's first division title since 2006? The six head-to-head showdowns with the Dodgers later this month will go a long way toward answering that question.
San Francisco Giants (57-57): Get over the hump and back into the postseason
Mediocre has been the name of the game for San Francisco, seemingly destined for a fourth consecutive season finishing within four games of .500. But despite unloading Camilo Doval, Tyler Rogers and Mike Yastrzemski at the trade deadline, they could still mess around and be a problem in this wild-card race, especially if they make the most of the upcoming nine-game homestand against Washington, San Diego and Tampa Bay. No time like the present for Rafael Devers to blossom into the star the Giants thought they were getting.
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