Way-Too-Early MLB Free-Agency Predictions Post-2025 Trade Deadline
With Major League Baseball's trade deadline now behind us, the next big transactional window is the free agency period that will begin five days after the 2025 World Series ends.
On the one hand, that's still a long ways away.
On the other hand, for the nearly 50 percent of teams who have already given up hope on making the playoffs this season, at least free agency madness is something worth looking forward to.
So let's take an early look at the biggest names up for grabs this winter, including predictions on where they'll land.
We'll start with a sizable tier of players who probably-won't-but-plausibly-could receive offers in excess of $100M. And after a mention of the sheer volume of closers likely to be available, we'll count down the seven players likely headed for nine-figure contracts, ranked in ascending order of total amount of our projections for those mega deals.
The Plausible Nine-Figure Candidates
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The seven players atop this list are all probably heading for contracts north of $100M.
These are the others who might join that club.
Zac Gallen, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Dylan Cease, RHP, San Diego Padres
Each of these starting pitchers presently in his age-29 season finished top five in a Cy Young vote in two of the past three years and entered 2025 looking destined to become very rich upon reaching free agency for the first time. Instead, they've both struggled mightily and may at least be tempted to accept the one-year qualifying offers coming their way this winter in hopes of entering free agency more emphatically 15 months from now. (Prediction: Gallen stays in Arizona; Cease signs with New York Mets.)
Shane Bieber, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Bieber's 2025 season debut should be coming soon. If the 2020 AL Cy Young winner finishes with a flourish, he'll decline his $16M player option for next season in order to make way more than that in free agency. (Prediction: Los Angeles Angels throw a slightly irresponsible amount of money at Bieber.)
Michael King, RHP, San Diego Padres
King is working on a fourth consecutive season with a sub-3.00 ERA, but he has also been out since mid-May with a thoracic nerve issue. At this point, he needs to come back and prove himself even more than Bieber does, as last year was the only one thus far in which King made more than 10 starts. Of the four pitchers in this tier, he just might have the best stuff, but is least likely to get a $100M deal. (Prediction: King re-signs with Padres on a three-year deal.)
Eugenio Suárez, 3B, Seattle Mariners
Hard to imagine a slugger who is already 34 years old will be able to get enough years on a deal to reach nine figures. But if Suárez ends up hitting 50 home runs this season, who knows? Maybe he could get a four-year, $100M contract. (Prediction: Suárez doesn't actually sniff $100M, but does get a lucrative two-year deal from an unexpected team, like the Athletics or Nationals.)
Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, New York Yankees
Bellinger has a $25M player option for 2026, but he has re-harnessed his slugging well enough that he'll probably decline it and set his sights upon another 3/$80M or better type of deal. (Prediction: Bellinger signs a three-year or four-year deal with the Giants.)
Luis Arráez, 1B/2B, San Diego Padres
Luis Arráez has won three consecutive batting titles and could be in the mix for a fourth if Will Smith either fades down the stretch or even fails to make enough plate appearances to qualify, which he is barely on pace to do. But Arráez doesn't draw walks, hit home runs, steal bases or play great defense, making it tough to see anyone giving him a $20M AAV. If he's reaching $100M total, it's probably going to need to be at least a seven-year deal. (Prediction: Arráez signs a six-year, $90M-ish deal with the Yankees.)
Munetaka Murakami, 3B, Yakult Swallows
Murakami has missed most of this season due to an arthroscopic surgery in his throwing elbow, but he mashed 223 home runs from 2019-24 and is still just 25 years old. The expectation remains that he will be posted this winter and will be a traditional free agent, able to immediately sign a major deal (a la Yoshinobu Yamamoto) as opposed to needing to go the Roki Sasaki route. (Prediction: Murakami signs a six-year deal with the Dodgers, becoming the heir apparent to Max Muncy at third base.)
A Wild Winter for Closers
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Before we progress to the main attractions, could we briefly discuss the litany of closers hitting free agency this offseason?
Ryan Helsley, Devin Williams, Raisel Iglesias, Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman, Kyle Finnegan and Emilio Pagan are all going to be free agents. So are Luke Weaver, Kirby Yates, Jordan Romano and Jose Leclerc in the "used to close" tier.
On top of that, both Robert Suarez and Edwin Díaz can and probably will opt out of the two years left on their respective contracts.
It also wouldn't be shocking if the Phillies declined Jose Alvarado's $9M club option, given the PEDs suspension he has almost finished serving. Nor would it be a surprise if the Rays decline to exercise Pete Fairbanks' $7M club option, since paying for an oversaturated position seems like a very un-Rays thing to do.
All told, that's 15 pitchers with a considerable degree of recent closing experience, all potentially up for grabs this winter.
Williams, Díaz, Suarez and Helsley are the ones most likely to fetch lucrative, multi-year deals, but it's hard to see any of them getting all that close to $100M, if only because the supply probably outpaces the demand this year.
7. Ranger Suárez, LHP: Baltimore Orioles
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Age: 29
2025 Stats: 100.2 IP, 2.68 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 3.7 bWAR
Career Stats: 705.1 IP, 3.32 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 16.8 bWAR
Spotrac Market Value: 6 years, $170M
It's likely the Phillies will need to make a choice between re-signing Ranger Suárez or Kyle Schwarber, and it's very likely they'll choose the slugger, seeing as how they already have Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo signed through at least next season, plus Andrew Painter coming sooner rather than later.
Their loss could be some team's massive gain, because dating back to the beginning of 2021, Ranger Suárez has been astoundingly comparable to Giants ace Logan Webb.
Webb has been substantially more durable, logging 265 more innings than Suárez, so the former has accumulated more WAR than the latter. However, we're talking about a 3.20 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 8.4 K/9 for Webb and a 3.18 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 8.4 K/9 for Suárez.
We shall see whether he'll be treated in free agency as a premium starter, but Suárez has been productive enough (when healthy) to merit consideration for the gig of 2026 Opening Day starter for quite a few franchises.
One of those teams is the Baltimore Orioles, who should have both a preposterous amount of room in the budget to make a Suárez-sized splash and a lot of regret about not doing more to address the starting rotation this past offseason. Goodness only knows at this point when they'll have Grayson Rodriguez back on the mound again, but Suárez could be their ace moving forward.
Prediction: 4 years, $104M with the Baltimore Orioles
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6. Pete Alonso, 1B: New York Mets
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Age: 30
2025 Stats: .260/.352/.498, 24 HR, 86 RBI, 2.5 bWAR
Career Stats: .250/.341/.513, 250 HR, 672 RBI, 22.4 bWAR
Spotrac Market Value: 6 years, $180M
Pete Alonso has a $24M player option for 2026, but it is just about a foregone conclusion that he will be declining it and venturing back into free agency for a second consecutive winter, hoping to find a market more willing to invest in what has been one of the best sluggers over the past seven years.
Will that be the case?
Given how poorly things have gone at first base this season for both the San Francisco Giants and the Boston Red Sox and the fact that the New York Yankees will be back in the market with a soon-to-be 38-year-old Paul Goldschmidt hitting free agency, maybe the Polar Bear gets the nine-figure contract that wouldn't materialize last offseason.
Of course, the Mets will also be highly motivated to keep their home-grown star.
They were willing to play a dangerous game of "Chicken" with Alonso during the winter, back when they thought (correctly) that no one would make him a massive offer and perhaps thought (incorrectly) that Mark Vientos would suffice as the everyday first baseman if they were unable to bring Alonso back.
Between Alonso faring better in 2025 than he did in 2024 and Vientos taking a gigantic step backward, the Mets may well be willing to increase the length of their offer, even though he's now a year older.
Prediction: 4 years, $110M with the New York Mets
5. Bo Bichette, SS: Atlanta Braves
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Age: 27
2025 Stats: .293/.332/.454, 13 HR, 68 RBI, 4 SB, 2.3 bWAR
Career Stats: .290/.332/.464, 106 HR, 411 RBI, 60 SB, 19.8 bWAR
Spotrac Market Value: 7 years, $148M
As was the case last winter with Willy Adames, the shortstop market in this free agency cycle is going to have a pretty serious "It's that guy or bust" feel to it in regard to Bo Bichette. Because beyond the current Blue Jay with a near .300 career batting average, the next-best option is probably utilityman Willi Castro.
The good news for prospective buyers is that after a brutal 2024 campaign both fueled and truncated by injury, Bichette does look the part again. He led the American League in total hits in each of 2021 and 2022 and is presently leading the majors in that department this season. And with his 28th birthday not coming until the spring, there's good reason to believe he can keep this up for at least another half-decade.
The bad news for Bichette is that most of the teams with money to spend already have a long-term solution at shortstop, so he might need to be open to moving to third base in order to spark a proper bidding war.
If he wants to remain a shortstop, though, the two most logical landing spots are either returning to Toronto or going to Atlanta—both of whom are already on the hook for nearly $200M next season and might need to get creative to make it work.
But on the heels of a wildly disappointing season, Atlanta figures to be most motivated to find a way. The Braves have an excellent glove in Nick Allen, but they have a .538 OPS at shortstop for the year, yet to produce so much as a single home run.
Since losing Dansby Swanson in free agency three years ago, they've yet to produce much of anything at shortstop. Might finally be time to fix that.
Prediction: 6 years, $126M with the Atlanta Braves
4. Alex Bregman, 3B: Detroit Tigers
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Age: 31
2025 Stats: .296/.367/.542, 14 HR, 44 RBI, 3.3 bWAR
Career Stats: .274/.366/.486, 205 HR, 707 RBI, 43 SB, 42.9 bWAR
Spotrac Market Value: 6 years, $160M
Alex Bregman signed a three-year, $120M contract this past winter, but he can opt out either this winter or next if he so chooses.
If he even remotely maintains what has been easily his most impressive OPS since nearly winning AL MVP in 2019, it doesn't take a leap of faith to assume he will re-enter free agency.
It doesn't mean he's unhappy in Boston. It just means he can almost certainly get more than the $80M left on his contract by re-opening the door to whomever wants to be the highest bidder. And it's entirely possible Boston could be that high bidder, if only because the alternative is trying to explain to the fans why losing both Rafael Devers and Bregman in the span of a few months is actually a good thing.
Then again, with Marcelo Mayer now in the mix and Trevor Story not going anywhere in the next few years, Boston might be reluctant enough to increase its investment to allow somewhere else to swoop in.
And if Bregman does change teams, Detroit might be the best bet.
To some extent, it hinges on if/when/why the Tigers get bounced this October. However, there's still the connection with Tigers manager AJ Hinch that made everyone believe the Tigers had a shot at signing him this past winter, and third base has been one of Detroit's weakest spots all season.
The Phillies could also be a candidate, though, Alec Bohm does have one year left before free agency, and finding the money to pay both Bregman and Kyle Schwarber probably isn't happening.
Prediction: 4 years, $128M with the Detroit Tigers
3. Kyle Schwarber, DH: Philadelphia Phillies
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Age: 32
2025 Stats: .253/.380/.576, 38 HR, 88 RBI, 9 SB, 3.7 bWAR
Career Stats: .232/.347/.499, 322 HR, 740 RBI, 36 SB, 19.0 bWAR
Spotrac Market Value: N/A
Truth be told, I appreciate Spotrac's refusal to even venture a guess at what Kyle Schwarber is going to fetch in free agency.
DH-only sluggers who hit 200+ home runs in the span of 4.5 seasons and seem to only be getting better at the age of 32 don't exactly grow on trees, making it difficult to find any comps to point to.
David Ortiz and Nelson Cruz spring to mind. However, the former never hit free agency during his peak, and the latter was already 38 by the time he had his dominant run of 203 homers in five years and had to settle for one-year deals from that point forward.
Kind of uncharted waters here, though they're sure to be lucrative with Schwarber destined for a fourth consecutive season receiving votes for NL MVP.
Schwarber made $79M over the course of that four-year contract, and an increase of at least 50 percent on his AAV on a similar-length deal seems like a safe bet. Possibly more like a 75 percent increase.
Bryce Harper has been quite vocal in his opinion that the Phillies should re-sign Schwarber this offseason. Do they have room in the budget, though? While simultaneously trying to deal with the impending losses of JT Realmuto and Ranger Suárez?
As vitally important as he has been to their cause this season, they almost have to find a way. Maybe they borrow a page from the Dodgers' deferrals playbook to get it done, but there should be many more Schwarbombs in Citizens Bank Park for what's left of the 2020s.
Prediction: 4 years, $140M with the Philadelphia Phillies
2. Framber Valdez, LHP: Boston Red Sox
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Age: 31
2025 Stats: 134.0 IP, 2.62 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 4.6 bWAR
Career Stats: 1022.2 IP, 3.21 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 19.6 bWAR
Spotrac Market Value: 6 years, $168M
Prior to the trade deadline and its reintroduction of Carlos Correa to Houston's roster/payroll, it at least seemed plausible the Astros would be able to find close to $30M per year to re-sign one of the best southpaws in the business on a long-term deal.
But now?
With Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker, Josh Hader, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr. and Correa owed a combined $159.4M in 2026? With McCullers the only member of that group not also on the books for 2027? And with decisions to be made in the next two years on whether they can keep Isaac Paredes and/or Jeremy Peña for the long haul?
Sure seems like they're going to thank Valdez for his services and wish him luck in free agency.
And we are talking about some seriously excellent services, just to be clear. Valdez has a sub-3.00 ERA dating back to the beginning of 2022, during which time the only pitchers to accumulate more fWAR than Valdez were Zack Wheeler, Tarik Skubal and Logan Webb. Valdez also leads all pitchers with 79 quality starts during those three-plus seasons.
Age is sure to be a factor in the length of his contract, as Valdez turns 32 in November. However, turning 32 last December didn't stop Blake Snell from landing a five-year, $182M deal that made him the pitcher with the third-highest AAV in the majors this season.
Boston figures to be in the market for one of the premier starting pitchers available this winter, especially after the recent news of Tanner Houck's Tommy John surgery. Pairing Valdez with Garrett Crochet would give the Red Sox maybe the best one-two punch in baseball.
Prediction: 5 years, $160M with the Boston Red Sox
1. Kyle Tucker, RF: Chicago Cubs
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Age: 28
2025 Stats: .276/.391/.488, 18 HR, 61 RBI, 23 SB, 4.7 bWAR
Career Stats: .275/.359/.512, 143 HR, 478 RBI, 117 SB, 27.5 bWAR
Spotrac Market Value: 12 years, $515M
Without so much as a close runner-up, Kyle Tucker is the crown jewel of this year's free agency class.
The bidding war for his long-term services probably won't rival the "daily, sometimes hourly updates" saga that it was for Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge in recent years, as Tucker is nowhere near the unmistakable face of baseball that those superstars already were before signing their mega deals.
He's certainly not far behind those guys in terms of production, though.
This is already Tucker's fifth consecutive year worth at least 4.7 bWAR, even with nearly two months still to be played and even though he missed 84 games last season with that shin injury. His .887 OPS during that stretch is nearly identical to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s .884 mark, and we all saw what his value was, signing a 14-year, $500M extension with Toronto earlier this season.
Granted, Guerrero is more than two years younger than Tucker, so 14 years probably isn't happening. Getting 10 or maybe 12 is much more likely. But getting north of $40M per year could be in the cards.
As far as roster/payroll fit goes, staying with the Cubs makes the most sense. They may well need to structure the deal in such a way that he doesn't make a ton in 2026. However, with Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki both slated for free agency after next season, the Cubs A) need to be thinking about their long-term outfield plans and B) have some big salaries coming off the books heading into 2027. (Add Jameson Taillon and Nico Hoerner as guys also entering their final season and that's $68M opening up from four players.)
Boston also figures to be in the mix, though. Maybe Philadelphia if they're moving on from Kyle Schwarber and have that money to spend. San Francisco might look to stay splashy with another marquee bat. A reunion with Houston is unlikely, though not out of the question.
The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal even suggested recently—in mid-July, not on April Fool's Day—that the Tampa Bay Rays could be a contender for Tucker. And ESPN's Jeff Passan suggested a few months ago that Tucker could fetch a $600M deal. So, you know, get ready for things to get wild.
Prediction: 11 years, $441M with the Chicago Cubs
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