T.J. Watt and More Recent Blockbuster NFL Contracts Teams Are Likely to Regret

Last week, just a year after signing defensive lineman Christian Wilkins to a four-year, $110 million contract, the Las Vegas Raiders suddenly released Wilkins. 

There may have been more to the move than the fact the 29-year-old didn’t deliver on the field in 2024, but it does confirm that the team made a poor decision in the first place. 

That’s one of several deals we called out in this exercise last summer. 

Here are several from the last two years that are particularly likely to follow suit, with "blockbuster" defined as any deal worth at least $25 million per year and $100 million overall.

Contract information courtesy of Spotrac

Pittsburgh Steelers Edge T.J. Watt

AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar

Terms: Three years, $123 million with $108 million guaranteed (signed in 2025)

Why they gave it to him: The 30-year-old star was on the verge of a walk year, and the Steelers are clearly trying to extend their contending window with quarterback Aaron Rodgers on board. 

Why they might regret it: Watt already has more than 6,000 snaps under his belt and has produced fewer than 12 sacks in two of his last three seasons. Injuries were a factor in 2022, but that counts for a guy who is now on the wrong side of 30, and his production fell off a cliff despite a complete season in 2024. I think the Steelers will despise owing him $42 million when they’re in the midst of an inevitable post-Rodgers rebuild in 2027.

San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy

AP Photo/Jeff Chiu

Terms: Five years, $265 million with $183 million guaranteed (signed in 2025)

Why they gave it to him: The 25-year-old was entering the final year of his rookie contract, with no team option for 2026. They’re trying to remain in contention and Purdy was likely viewed as their best bet under center. 

Why they might regret it: Despite historically awesome numbers in the first two seasons of his career, Purdy struggled in key playoff moments. And then, with less support due to injuries throughout the roster in Year 3, he was exposed as his rate-based stats plummeted. The 49ers will likely never be able to give him the support they did in 2022 and 2023, and there’s a good chance we’ll see more of the flaws that caused him to drop into the seventh round of the ‘22 draft. 

Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott

AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill

Terms: Four years, $240 million with $231 million guaranteed (signed in 2024)

Why they gave it to him: An ongoing dispute threatened to linger into the final year of Prescott’s last deal, and the team probably figured it’d be best to keep rolling long-term with a guy who was the MVP runner-up in 2023. 

Why they might regret it: Prescott is now 32, and injuries have cost him large portions of three of the last five seasons. Despite plenty of support, he’s been a part of just two playoff wins in his nine-year NFL career. And yet in 2026 and 2027, his combined salary-cap hit exceeds a ridiculous $142 million.

Cincinnati Bengals WR Tee Higgins

AP Photo/Jeff Dean

Terms: Four years, $115 million with $41 million guaranteed (signed in 2025)

Why they gave it to him: With Joe Burrow locked in, the Bengals likely felt the need to keep both Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase in the quarterback’s receiving corps for years to come. Letting either go might have felt like a step backward as they try to rebound from consecutive underachieving campaigns, and Higgins’ contract had expired.

Why they might regret it: The 26-year-old simply has no business being one of the 10 highest-paid receivers in the NFL. He’s never had 80 catches, 1,100 yards or more than 10 touchdowns in a season, and durability has been an issue as well. The Bengals are putting all of their eggs in one offensive skill position basket, which is problematic.

San Francisco 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk

AP Photo/Jeff Chiu

Terms: Four years, $120 million with $76 million guaranteed (signed in 2024)

Why they gave it to him: They cried uncle following a long contract dispute, likely because they knew they needed him and they didn’t want it to linger and cause distractions in what was supposed to be a championship year. 

Why they might regret it: A knee injury cost the 27-year-old most of his 2024 campaign and now threatens to screw up his 2025 season as well. That’s tough luck, but it’s also worth noting that he’s never had 80 receptions or more than eight touchdowns in a season. With the 49ers’ roster less stacked than it used to be, Aiyuk could soon be exposed as a less-than-elite player despite a top-10 salary at the position.

New York Giants Edge Brian Burns

AP Photo/Adam Hunger

Terms: Five years, $141 million with $88 million guaranteed (signed in 2024)

Why they gave it to him: The pass rush stunk and they had the money to spend on a top-end free agent. 

Why they might regret it: Recent top-five pick Kayvon Thibodeaux was coming off a double-digit-sack sophomore campaign at the time, and it’s still possible he becomes something special. But now, they’ve also used a top-three pick on potential superstar Abdul Carter. The 27-year-old Burns had just 8.5 sacks in 2024, has just one double-digit-sack campaign in his career and will cost $34.8 million against the cap in 2026. 

Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa

AP Photo/Lynne Sladky

Terms: Four years, $212 million with $167 million guaranteed (signed in 2024)

Why they gave it to him: He was entering the option year on his rookie contract, and the Dolphins likely saw him as their best chance to keep contending for years to come with Tyreek Hill and an expensive, star-studded roster. 

Why they might regret it: Tagovailoa’s injury history continues to be a major concern after the 27-year-old missed significant time with another concussion in 2024. He’s also consistently fallen short in key moments, and support has dropped off. Hill’s future in Miami is also in doubt, so it’s easy to see Miami dreading Tua’s $56.4 million 2026 cap hit.

Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence (Again)

AP Photo/John Raoux

Terms: Five years, $275 million with $200 million guaranteed (signed in 2024)

Why they gave it to him: Lawrence was entering the final year of his rookie deal, the Jaguars obviously believed in him, and they'd prefer to save cap space in the short term with the long-term flexibility associated with a new contract.

Why they might regret it: They still have yet to finish above 9-8 with Lawrence, who was the league's 21st-highest-rated passer during a disappointing third pro season in 2023 and then dropped to 28th in that category during an injury-marred 2024 campaign. There's a good chance that the 2021 No. 1 overall pick never lives up to his draft hype.