Final MLB Trade Predictions for 2025 Deadline Day
What had been a pretty quiet late July on the MLB trade deadline front exploded into some serious wheeling and dealing on Wednesday.
Jhoan Durán going from Minnesota closer to Philadelphia closer was the deal du jour, with Eugenio Suárez going to Seattle at almost exactly midnight on the East Coast serving as one heck of a nightcap. But the Mets scooping up relievers Ryan Helsley and Tyler Rogers was also huge, while even Cincinnati made some splashes with the acquisitions of Ke'Bryan Hayes and Zack Littell.
And that may have just been the tip of the iceberg leading into a potential whirlwind of a deadline day.
After all, of the 58 trades that were completed in the final week before last year's deadline, 32 (55 percent) went down in the final 12 hours. And in 2022, 28 (62 percent) of the 45 deadline deals—including the Juan Soto blockbuster heard 'round the world—came in on the last day possible.
With the likes of Sandy Alcantara, Luis Robert Jr. and so much more still up for grabs on the trade block, Thursday should prove to be quite the swap meet.
In preparation for the madness, we've got one final batch of predictions on what the biggest deals of the day will be.
Luis Robert Jr. to the New York Mets
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NYM Receives: CF Luis Robert Jr.
CHW Receives: IF Luisangel Acuña and RHP Jonathan Pintaro
Earlier this week, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the Chicago White Sox still have a high asking price for Luis Robert Jr., telling other teams they'll just hang onto him and pick up his $20 million option for next season if they're unsatisfied with the offers they receive.
You can decide for yourself whether that's an empty threat intended to generate better offers or an honest-to-goodness approach the White Sox are considering, but the main takeaway is they're still entertaining offers for what has been an inescapable trade candidate for well over a year at this point.
And, to Robert's credit, he's putting together quite the 11th-hour audition tape, entering play on Wednesday with a .333/.429/.571 triple slash, three home runs and four stolen bases over his last 12 games—in stark contrast to what had been sub-replacement-level production prior to three weeks ago.
Surely, at least one of the NL East's two contenders has taken notice, as both the Mets and Phillies have managed just four home runs from center field in the entire 2025 campaign. (Also, he went 5-for-11 as the White Sox took two out of three from the Phillies this week. They certainly noticed him.)
Of the two, the Mets are arguably more likely to make it happen, provided Chicago isn't actually requesting the moon in return for its 2023 All-Star. But the Phillies have made it clear they want to add a right-handed bat and have been linked to Robert for quite a while.
Sandy Alcantara to the American League East
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NYY's Hypothetical Package: RHP Carlos Lagrange (MLB.com No. 94) and C/1B Rafael Flores
BOS's Hypothetical Package: OF Jhostynxon Garcia (MLB.com No. 89) and IF Yoeilin Cespedes
TOR's Hypothetical Package: SS Arjun Nimmala (MLB.com No. 45) and 3B/OF Charles McAdoo
Though we're rolling with a specific landing spot for every other prediction on this list, we're casting a wider net for the 2022 NL Cy Young winner who is probably 50/50 to be moved at all.
Like fellow longtime trade candidate Luis Robert Jr., at least Sandy Alcantara has surged into the deadline with a recent string of good showings, increasing the likelihood someone will put together a package that entices the Marlins.
He went five scoreless innings against the Cardinals on Tuesday, hitting triple digits on the radar gun a few times. That came on the heels of a seven-inning start with no earned runs allowed against the Padres.
No time like the present for two of your best outings of the season.
And goodness knows that FIP, xFIP and xERA have been saying for a while now that Alcantara is pitching better than his ERA would have you believe. Finally getting some progression to the mean should be of interest to the AL East's three contenders, who would love to benefit from that continued success.
Both Boston and New York desperately need at least one starting pitcher and could be willing to give up quite a few prospects to get Alcantara. Kind of feels like they're more likely to pursue rentals, though.
Toronto is in more of an "it would be fun to make a big splash" spot as opposed to one in which it needs to address a black hole on the roster. However, given how much more than usual the Blue Jays have already invested in this year's team and the fact that Bo Bichette, Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer are all free agents this winter, they might be the one most willing to force Miami's hand with a big offer for what could become an ace north of the border for the next two-and-a-half seasons.
David Bednar to the Texas Rangers
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TEX Receives: RHP David Bednar
PIT Receives: RHP Winston Santos and LHP Mitch Bratt
This past offseason, the Texas Rangers had to rebuild their entire bullpen from scratch basically, electing to do so with a flurry of low-risk, low-reward flyers.
For the most part, it has worked out surprisingly well. Primary high-leverage arms Hoby Milner, Chris Martin, Robert Garcia and Shawn Armstrong each entered Wednesday with a sub-3.00 ERA.
But should this team remain hot and make it back to the postseason, is Garcia really the answer in the ninth inning?
For a franchise that has been grasping at straws at closer on an annual (if not monthly) basis since losing Joe Nathan back in 2013? [Did you know Texas' franchise leader in saves over the past 12 years is Shawn Tolleson?]
Trading for Aroldis Chapman two years ago was a massive (albeit often shaky) piece of their World Series puzzle, and snagging arguably the best reliever left on this year's trade block just might push them over the top again.
David Bednar had a disastrous 2024 campaign with a 5.77 ERA, but the Pirates' primary closer has been back to his two-time All Star self in 2025. He had a 2.25 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 11.3 K/9 from 2021-23 and is sitting on similar numbers this year—2.37, 1.10 and 12.1, respectively.
Though he has one year of arbitration eligibility remaining, there's really no question he's likely to be dealt. Pittsburgh didn't deal Ke'Bryan Hayes with five years left on his contract just to sit out what has been an incredibly lucrative deadline for sellers with relievers to offer.
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Merrill Kelly to the Boston Red Sox
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BOS Receives: RHP Merrill Kelly
ARI Receives: OF James Tibbs III and LHP Hayden Mullins
Is it bad that the Boston Red Sox—clinging to a projected playoff spot for dear life—have a No. 4 starter (Walker Buehler) with a 5.72 ERA and negative-1.2 bWAR and an unknown at the fifth spot in the rotation after Richard Fitts (who was already something like Plan J for the Sox) was sent back to Worcester on Tuesday?
Because it seems bad.
Though there are quite a few quality multi-year starters on this year's trade block, going the rental route would appear to make the most sense for Boston, which theoretically already has a full rotation and then some in place for next season once Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck and Patrick Sandoval are healthy again.
As such, Boston going shopping in San Diego for Dylan Cease has been a commonly made connection in recent days. However, as a team still right in the thick of a playoff chase, the Padres' asking price is certain to be much steeper than what Arizona would require to part with Merrill Kelly—who is, per usual, just quietly having a substantially better than league-average season.
Kelly's teammate RHP Zac Gallen is also a popular name on this year's trade block, and a "two birds, one stone" move to pair that duo with Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito would be quite the coup.
However, hanging onto Gallen and extending him a qualifying offer (before maybe figuring out a long-term extension) this offseason would figure to be in the Diamondbacks' best interests. Kelly seems like the much more gettable of the two, even though he's having the far better season of the two.
Landing Spots for Baltimore's Remaining Rentals
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Baltimore's former relievers Gregory Soto (to NYM) and Seranthony Domínguez (to TOR) have already been sent packing in advance of hitting free agency this winter, but the O's have only just begun their fire sale. They should be busy in the hours that remain until Thursday evening.
Here are our rapid-fire guesses at where their remaining rentals end up.
RHP Charlie Morton: New York Mets. After a busy Wednesday of revamping the bullpen, New York turns its attention to shoring up the rotation via a veteran with six quality starts in his last 11 appearances. Clay Holmes hasn't made it through six innings in any of his past nine starts with a 4.30 ERA during that stretch. The closer-turned-starter might benefit from a shift to long relief the rest of the way.
1B/OF/DH Ryan O'Hearn: Texas Rangers. If at first you don't succeed, try, try again. The Rangers signed Joc Pederson to serve as the left-handed half of a DH platoon, and that really couldn't have gone any more poorly. But O'Hearn has an OPS of almost .900 against right-handed pitching this season and would immediately become one of the top bats in the Rangers lineup.
CF Cedric Mullins: Houston Astros. Mullins went from a 1.049 OPS in his first 22 games to a .567 mark over his next 52 games. However, he has bounced back with a near-.900 OPS in his last 16 games, plus that jaw-dropping bit of home run robbery on Wednesday afternoon. And, well, Houston needs healthy bodies with at least some potential to do damage at the dish.
OF Ramón Laureano: San Diego Padres. There has been a lot of "willing to deal Dylan Cease" and "hoping to acquire Jarren Duran" scuttlebutt in San Diego in recent days, but that feels like overly wishful thinking, even for A.J. Preller. Trading for Laureano (who has a $6.5 million club option for next season) would figure to be a much less blockbuster-y solution to their LF woes. Heck, Laureano would be an even better solution than Duran if he keeps hitting anything close to his .362 mark over the past 16 games.
RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: Los Angeles Angels. The Halos are evidently still giving it the ol' college try, trading for a pair of Washington Nationals relievers on Wednesday. But if they're serious about this, replacing Jack Kochanowicz at the back of the rotation feels like a must. Sugano recently went through a brutal patch of regression with an 8.87 ERA in five starts, but he has tallied a quality start in two of his past three outings, including a season-high eight strikeouts against the Rockies on Sunday.
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