Playing MLB Trade Deadline Matchmaker with the Market's Hottest Starting Pitchers
Major League Baseball's July 31 trade deadline is less than a week away, and there's at least one area where it might have a lot to offer: starting pitching.
Granted, the emphasis here is on might. Though plenty of names have popped up in trade rumors recently, it's unclear if some of them are actually available. In other cases, there's a disconnect between a given pitcher's name value and his actual value.
Yet since the sheer amount of buzz is conducive to creativity, we've played a game of "MLB Trade Deadline Matchmaker" with the eight most interesting starters whose names have been circulated lately. This involved pinpointing a team that could not only use them but also has the means to acquire them.
We'll go in ascending order of how likely each pitcher is to be moved, with least likely at the bottom and most likely at the top.
LHP MacKenzie Gore, Washington Nationals
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Latest Rumblings
According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the Nationals are willing to listen on MacKenzie Gore and have gotten calls from about a half-dozen teams. However, they are "very unlikely" to move the 2025 All-Star.
Where He Fits Best: Seattle Mariners
If you're surprised at this pick, don't be.
The Mariners came into 2025 with a reputation for being a pitching powerhouse and a hitting shanty, but the opposite has turned out to be true. They are above average in runs scored (4.61 per game) and below average in runs allowed (4.44 per game).
Injuries to Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Bryce Miller haven't helped, and the team would be wise not to assume the latter can overcome the bone spur in his elbow without surgery. And in the meantime, Bryan Woo is just two outs away from a new career high for innings.
For his part, Gore has a 3.59 ERA and 140 strikeouts through 112.2 innings, which is still about 55 short of his career high. He's therefore a dominant starter who should have gas in the tank, which is what Seattle needs.
Then there's the other reason the Mariners make sense for Gore: They may be the only team with the prospect capital to afford him.
Seattle's farm system is ranked at No. 1 in the league by B/R's Joel Reuter, and it's loaded with the kind of high-upside talent the Nats need to hasten the long-awaited end of their rebuild.
RHP Luis Severino, Athletics
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Latest Rumblings
Though Luis Severino is only in Year 1 of a three-year, $67 million contract, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported he's one of several starting pitchers the A's are actively shopping.
Where He Fits Best: New York Mets
To be clear, anywhere other than Sacramento is a good fit for Severino.
He has been open with his disdain for Sutter Health Park, and you can hardly blame the guy. It is a minor league park, after all, and he has a 6.68 ERA there compared to a 3.10 ERA on the road.
Yes, Severino deserves some blame for his bad fortunes in 2025. He doesn't have strong metrics, with the especially bad ones including a whiff rate in the first percentile and a strikeout rate in the eighth percentile.
Still, this is a two-time All-Star whose right arm remains a live wire. The Mets got a 3.91 ERA and 182.0 innings out of it in 2024, and they sure could use more pitching of that ilk amid a rotation that is beset by question marks.
Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas have all spent time on the IL this year. Meanwhile, David Peterson is nearing his career high for innings and Clay Holmes has already blown way past his.
We'll also level with you and cut to the big reason we picked the Mets here: They might be the only team in MLB that can look at Severino's contract and not be overcome with sticker shock.
RHP Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres
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Latest Rumblings
Six teams have called the Padres about Dylan Cease, according to Heyman, but there is a twist. The Friars are not a traditional seller, as ESPN's Buster Olney reported they'll only move him to shore up other needs.
Where He Fits Best: Chicago Cubs
Per Heyman's report, the Cubs are one of the four teams that have called about Cease, who got Cy Young Award votes in 2022 and 2024.
They are the best fit for him on at least one basis, which concerns the rate at which their starters strike batters out. It's not great, as their rotation's 20.3 strikeout percentage is the lowest of any projected playoff team.
Through thick and thin, strikeouts are Cease's bread and butter. He has fanned at least 10 batters per nine innings in each of the last five seasons, mainly by way of a slider that is among the top pitches in the game.
A trade to the North Side would be a homecoming a long time in the making for Cease. He began his career in the Cubs system before he went to the South Side in the José Quintana trade of 2017.
If there's a snag with this idea, it's that the Cubs aren't flush with spare major leaguers. But they do have an obvious trade chip down on the farm in outfielder Owen Caissie, who has a .960 OPS and 20 homers at Triple-A.
The Padres have gotten only six home runs out of left field all season, which is actually fewer than Caissie has (nine) just in his last 14 games.
RHP Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins
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Latest Rumblings
Speaking of the Padres, Dennis Lin of The Athletic reported they're interested in Sandy Alcantara. He's been a walking trade rumor since the opening of spring training, though there's a case for the Marlins not to move him now.
Where He Fits Best: Toronto Blue Jays
Apropos of that last note, Alcantara's fiendish-looking 6.66 ERA isn't the only thing casting a cloud over his trade value.
The 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner also already has 104 innings on his arm in his first year back from Tommy John surgery. As Patrick Mooney and Will Sammon pondered for The Athletic, how much he'll have left for October is a real concern.
The righty has shown flashes of his old brilliance here and there, though, and any trade for him won't need to pay off in 2025 alone. He is signed for 2026 with a club option for 2027.
That is part of what makes him a good fit for the Padres, but there are two reasons why he's a better fit for a Blue Jays team that is in first place despite a rotation ERA of 4.52.
For one, throwing to an elite framer like Alejandro Kirk could soothe some of the pain Alcantara has inflicted on himself with free passes this year. And for two, the Blue Jays' excellent infield defense would mesh well with his ground-ball style.
Besides, Toronto needs to be shopping for guys who can be had for pennies on the dollar. The club is short on prospect talent, with its farm system ranking No. 25 in MLB.
RHP Edward Cabrera, Miami Marlins
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Latest Rumblings
Though Alcantara is the more accomplished of the two Marlins hurlers, Jesse Rogers of ESPN reported Edward Cabrera "has become more coveted" on the trade market.
Where He Fits Best: Houston Astros
The catch with Cabrera is that injuries are a near-constant worry, even amid what has thus far been a healthy season for him. He had an elbow scare in June.
And yet, dominance has been the other theme of his season since the calendar turned to May. He's posted a 2.47 ERA in his last 13 starts, with 53 more strikeouts than walks.
Cabrera is also younger, cheaper and more controllable than Alcantara. He turned 27 in April, and he's making $1.95 million with three more years of club control still to go.
All this represents a potential complication for the Astros, who don't have a deep farm system to pull from. It's also fair to argue they don't need another injury-prone starter, as injuries have already put their pitching depth to the test.
What is undeniable, though, is Houston needs another solid starter to pair with Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez. And whoever it gets will hopefully be sticking around, as Valdez is a free agent at year's end.
Cabrera checks these boxes, and his affordability is crucial for the Astros. They are barely under the $241 million luxury-tax threshold, and thus need to steer clear of the higher-salary types on the trade market.
RHP Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals
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Latest Rumblings
Seth Lugo doesn't seem to be available, per se, but Rosenthal reported the Royals could find it "tempting" to trade the righty even if they're still in the race. Notably, they would like controllable outfield help in return.
Where He Fits Best: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are not the best fit for Lugo because a starter is the No. 1 item on their to-do list for the trade deadline. What they really need is relief pitching.
This said, part of the reason their bullpen is such a big concern is because of the sheer amount of work it's had to take on. It has pitched a league-high (by far) 452.2 innings, whereas the rotation has logged a league-low 467.2 innings.
As the Dodgers typically don't ask much of their starters, this is partly by design. Yet it's also partly because of necessity. They have had injuries in their rotation all year, which is a recurring phenomenon.
Even at 35, Lugo is among the top innings eaters in the league. He logged 206.2 innings last year, and he's averaged just about six innings per start through 19 outings this year.
Lest we overlook it, his ERA for the last two seasons comes in a hair under 3.00 at 2.98. He isn't a Big Stuff Guy the likes of which the Dodgers tend to favor, but he isn't a Kauffman creation, either. For the last two seasons, he has a 2.91 ERA on the road and a 3.05 ERA at home.
Because Lugo is unlikely to pick up his $15 million player option for 2026, he is functionally a pending free agent. That limits his value, though the Royals might hope to fleece the Dodgers of a short-term solution (i.e., James Outman) and a long-term gamble (i.e., Mike Sirota).
RHP Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates
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Latest Rumblings
The Pirates are "ready to make a tidal wave" at the deadline, as Jim Bowden of The Athletic put it. That doesn't mean a Paul Skenes trade is nigh, but Mitch Keller is "the headliner" of what they have on offer.
Where He Fits Best: Boston Red Sox
Keller has a wide range of fits, including with two teams that have checked in on him: the Cubs and Blue Jays.
However, the thing about those two teams is they need a starter with legitimate top-of-the-rotation upside. Keller is more of a mid-rotation starter, even if he does boast a career-best 121 ERA+.
He's more of a ground-ball pitcher whose primary function is eating innings. In a thin rotation, a guy like that is a No. 2. Ideally, he'd slot into a deeper rotation and be a steady No. 3.
This is where the Red Sox are perfect. They have a legitimate No. 1 in Garrett Crochet, who has solid support in Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito. But after that, there's a post-prime Walker Buehler and a veritable laundry list of injured pitchers who aren't able to slot into the No. 5 spot.
For the rest of 2025, Keller would help stabilize Boston's rotation for a potential push into the playoffs, where he would be in the running to work as a Game 3 starter. As he is signed through 2028, he'd then give the team one less hole to fill once Buehler and possibly Giolito hit the open market this winter.
In exchange, the Pirates could hope to extract one of Boston's many talented young hitters. They presumably couldn't get at Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer or Kristian Campbell, but a Wilyer Abreu or a down-ballot prospect such as Jhostynxon Garcia could suffice as a centerpiece.
RHP Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks
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Latest Rumblings
The Diamondbacks were said to be in sell mode by Mark Feinsand of MLB.com on Wednesday, and that came to fruition in a trade sending Josh Naylor to Seattle on Thursday. As a fellow free-agent-to-be, Zac Gallen is a candidate to go next.
Where He Fits Best: New York Yankees
Gallen was an All-Star and Cy Young Award contender as recently as 2023, but he just wasn't quite that guy in 2024 and has fallen off the table in 2025.
His 5.58 ERA ranks ahead of only Alcantara among qualified pitchers. He also leads the National League with 23 home runs allowed, so this isn't a case of a talented pitcher getting BABIP'd into oblivion.
Yet there is still respect for Gallen within the league, with one source telling Mooney and Sammon: “Zac wants the ball. He finds the chip and puts it on his shoulder and keeps going. He’s the type of guy who’s also very honest with himself about how he’s doing and what’s going on.”
Simply to this extent, Gallen just plain feels like the kind of guy who would be transformed after putting on pinstripes. And given how much injuries have decimated their rotation after Max Fried and Carlos Rodón, maybe that much more so if he felt called upon to be a savior.
The Yankees have been looking to add a starter ever since Clarke Schmidt went under the knife to have Tommy John surgery. Whether Gallen is the best they can do is debatable, but what really brings the circle together is how well they line up with the D-backs as trading partners.
It's this simple: Arizona is prioritizing young pitching, and five of the Yankees' seven best prospects are pitchers.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
