11 Buy-Low MLB Trade Candidates of the 2025 Trade Season
"He hasn't been particularly good/healthy this season, but if he can get back to producing like he did in previous years, that'll be a massive trade acquisition."
We end up saying something along those lines a bunch of times at Major League Baseball's trade deadline every year. Last summer, Tommy Edman, Danny Jansen, Randy Arozarena, A.J. Puk, Eloy Jimenez, Austin Hays, Lane Thomas, Jorge Soler, Josh Bell, Kevin Kiermaier and at least a dozen others fell into that sort of "buy-low" bucket.
Some of them panned out quite well with their new teams, especially Edman.
Others...not so much.
Such is life when gambling on the trade block, and we've put together a list of 11 buy-low nominees ahead of the 6 p.m. ET deadline on Thursday, July 31, including taking a stab at where each one will land.
Sandy Alcantara, RHP, Miami Marlins
1 of 11
Prorated Contract: $6M, $17.3M in 2026, $21M club option for 2027
2025 Stats: 104.0 IP, 6.66 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 6.7 K/9, -1.5 bWAR
Recent Peak(s): 2022 NL Cy Young
Sandy Alcantara is the ultimate buy-low candidate, ranking almost dead last among all pitchers in bWAR—just three years removed from leading all pitchers in bWAR by a wide margin.
Needless to say, it hasn't been the triumphant return from Tommy John surgery that he or the Marlins were hoping for.
And yet, good luck trying to find a single "top trade targets" type of article from the past nine months (or within the next few days) in which Alcantara doesn't feature prominently, as memories of the dominant force that he once was and hopes that he can recapture that lightning in a bottle—after all, he's still not even 30 years old—outweigh the concerns over the results from the past four months.
The many million dollar question, though, is whether the Marlins are willing to lower their asking price to give up Alcantara in light of his unsightly ERA and WAR?
He's a buy-low candidate, but Miami may well scoff at any low-ball offers.
Playing Matchmaker: The Chicago Cubs have long been speculated as one of the top landing spots for Alcantara, and not just because it'd be symmetrically fun if their highly touted outfield prospect Kevin Alcántara is part of the swap. They have more than enough talent in the farm system to get a deal done, and the rotation has been a major trade deadline concern since even before they lost Justin Steele for the year in April. It's really just a question of which starting pitcher(s) the Cubs covet the most.
Josh Bell, 1B/DH, Washington Nationals
2 of 11
Prorated Contract: $2M, Free Agent this winter
2025 Stats: .221/.310/.388, 13 HR, 38 RBI, 0.0 bWAR
Recent Peak(s): 37 home runs in 2019; post-trade deadline OPS of .818 and .796 in past two seasons
Josh Bell has been traded on deadline day in each of the past three summers.
At least as far as the 41-62 Washington Nationals are concerned, there's no good reason not to extend that streak to four years running.
Bell got out to a horrific start to the year. Through 40 team games, he was batting .130 with a .503 OPS. Had they been playing for anything this season, they might have thrown in the towel on Bell right then and there.
Since then, however, he has been quietly solid, batting .276 with an .814 OPS dating back to May 11.
Granted, the soon-to-be 33-year-old DH isn't homering like he used to back in his mid 20s. However, a prorated $2M is a bargain for a guy who has been hitting as well since mid-May as Fernando Tatis Jr. has been hitting all season (.269 AVG, .817 OPS).
Playing Matchmaker: Bell has barely played first base this season, but could he do so on at least a semi-regular basis over the next two months? If so, the San Francisco Giants should be an interested trade partner, given how little they've gotten from that position this season. If he's almost exclusively a DH, though, perhaps the San Diego Padres acquire him from the Nationals for a second time?
Kyle Freeland, LHP, Colorado Rockies
3 of 11
Prorated Contract: $5.3M, $16M in 2026, $17M vesting option for 2027
2025 Stats: 101.1 IP, 5.24 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, 0.2 bWAR
Recent Peak(s): 2.85 ERA with the Rockies in 2018
At this point, 2018 may as well have been a lifetime ago. But did you know that Kyle Freeland's 2.85 ERA in 202.1 innings pitched seven years ago was the lowest by a qualified pitcher in Rockies history, joining Ubaldo Jiménez (2.88 in 2010) as the only Colorado pitchers with at least 120 innings pitched in a single season with a sub-3.25 ERA?
Since then, Freeland has not been great, posting an ERA of 4.33 or worse in each season. However, it's almost always with a positive WAR that suggests he could be respectable if he could just be done making his home starts at Coors Field.
This season in particular, Freeland has a brutal 5.98 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in nine starts at home, but less-terrible marks of 4.68 and 1.27, respectively, on the road. In fact, he has quietly recorded nine quality starts (six in the 10 road games) this season, matching Sonny Gray, Kevin Gausman and Freddy Peralta in that department.
Rockies worth trading for are few and far between, especially with Ryan McMahon already moved, but this southpaw could be one of them, even with that $16M price tag for next season.
Playing Matchmaker: If we're trying to get Freeland out of Colorado and into a venue where he has shown he can excel, how about the San Diego Padres (3.53 ERA in 63.2 IP at Petco Park) or San Francisco Giants (3.54 ERA in 56.0 IP at Oracle Park)? Both of those NL West teams will come up again later in regard to a not-particularly-cheap, multiple-year starting pitcher, so maybe one takes Freeland and one takes the other.
Zac Gallen, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
4 of 11
Prorated Contract: $4.5M, Free Agent this winter
2025 Stats: 121.0 IP, 5.58 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 0.0 bWAR
Recent Peak(s): NL Cy Young vote recipient in each of 2020, 2022 and 2023
As is the case with Sandy Alcantara in Miami, the big question with Zac Gallen is whether the Diamondbacks will actually allow some team to buy low on what had been—at least as far as FanGraphs is concerned—a top 15 pitcher in all of baseball from 2020-24.
Keeping the ball in the yard has been his biggest problem this season. In fact, Gallen has already allowed more home runs this season (23) than in any previous year, and we've still got two months to go.
The good news is his velocity isn't markedly different from previous years, and both his four-seamer and changeup have been a little more unhittable than they were last season. It's been mostly his patented knuckle curve letting him down, and even that was mostly contained to a rough four-game stretch in June.
Between that and what is the second-widest "bad luck" gap between ERA (5.58) and xFIP (4.09) among qualified pitchers—only Alcantara's is wider—there's plausible hope that Gallen could have the type of post-deadline surge that both Yusei Kikuchi (4.75 ERA and 3.43 xFIP at the deadline; 2.70 ERA after) and Pablo López (4.73 ERA and 3.22 xFIP at the deadline; 2.94 ERA after) experienced last year.
If they don't trade him away, Arizona can extend Gallen a qualifying offer this winter and either bring him back for what would hopefully be a bounce-back year in 2026 or at least get a compensatory draft pick if he signs elsewhere. But if the offers they receive are better than that, they're worth considering.
Playing Matchmaker: In three career starts against the New York Yankees (two of them in Yankees Stadium), Gallen has a line of 18.2 IP, 9 H, 0 R, 5 BB, 27 K, including his 13-strikeout gem from earlier this season. And goodness knows the Bronx Bombers could use a starting pitcher.
Raisel Iglesias, RHP, Atlanta Braves
5 of 11
Prorated Contract: $5.3M, Free Agent this winter
2025 Stats: 39.2 IP, 4.99 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, -0.5 bWAR
Recent Peak(s): Posted a 2.75 ERA or better in eight of the previous nine seasons
Just last season, Raisel Iglesias was maybe the best closer in baseball not named Emmanuel Clase. He saved 34 games with a 1.95 ERA and a minuscule 0.74 WHIP, including a three-month stretch from mid-June into mid-September with a cumulative line of 35.1 IP, 10 H, 0 ER, 5 BB, 43 K.
Much different story this year, blowing four of his first 12 save chances en route to what was a 6.75 ERA in early June. And, to be clear, it wasn't a "couple of implosions amid an otherwise solid run" type of 6.75 ERA. Iglesias allowed at least one earned run in 13 of his first 25 appearances, consistently struggling to escape an inning unscathed.
However, after that brutal start, Iglesias recently had a dominant six-week run with a line of 13.2 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 18 K, suggesting there's still more than the ugly year-to-date numbers that meet the eye.
Playing Matchmaker: No one is more desperate for relief help than the Philadelphia Phillies, but the Braves would almost certainly rather just eat what's left of Iglesias' salary than do anything to help that rival out. It's much more likely he ends up in the American League with either the Detroit Tigers or Texas Rangers.
Cedric Mullins, CF, Baltimore Orioles
6 of 11
Prorated Contract: $2.9M, Free Agent this winter
2025 Stats: .215/.293/.396, 13 HR, 42 RBI, 14 SB, -0.7 bWAR
Recent Peak(s): 30 HR/30 SB in 2021; cumulative 79 HR and 115 SB from 2021-24
When we first began to entertain the idea of Baltimore as a seller, Cedric Mullins was the furthest thing from a buy-low candidate.
With an OPS north of 1.000 into late April, he was one of the few things that wasn't going wrong with the O's; a potential cream of the trade deadline crop if Baltimore's season continued to go sideways.
But then he cratered. After 23 games of looking like a fringe MVP candidate, Mullins has had a woeful .564 OPS dating back to April 26, darn near worst among all players with at least 200 plate appearances during that window.
He has still operated at a 162-game pace of roughly 19 home runs and 24 stolen bases during those disappointing three months. However, he isn't getting on base regularly, and what used to be considerable value added on defense back in the 2021-22 timeframe has turned into value subtracted.
Playing Matchmaker: Three years ago, the Houston Astros traded for an Oriole who was hot early in the year before limping into the deadline. And while Trey Mancini really did nothing to help them down the stretch, they did win the World Series and might go back to that well. They could sure use an outfielder, too, especially if Jake Meyers' calf injury could linger into the fall. And, for what it's worth, in 11 career games played in Houston, Mullins has gone 18-for-46 with a 1.090 OPS.
Marcell Ozuna, DH, Atlanta Braves
7 of 11
Prorated Contract: $5.3M, Free Agent this winter
2025 Stats: .235/.362/.389, 13 HR, 42 RBI, 1.1 bWAR
Recent Peak(s): 79 HR, 204 RBI over the previous two seasons
For much of last season, it felt like Marcell Ozuna was the only thing carrying an otherwise underwhelming Braves offense. He was their lone All-Star among hitters, as well as the only one to receive NL MVP votes, placing fourth after back-to-back seasons slugging at least .540 and OPSing at least .900—joining Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani and Yordan Alvarez as the only four players in that club.
While he hasn't been terrible this season, he certainly hasn't been that good, and the 14-games-below-.500, lowest-scoring-team-in-NL-East Braves are showing just how desperately they needed him to be great.
Perhaps he can catch fire again, though, for a roughly 60-game run on par with what he did back in 2020 to end up on this five-year, $80M deal in the first place?
He's still just 34 years old and has annihilated a few baseballs this season, Statcast suggesting he should be slugging (xSLG of .476) nearly 100 points better than he has thus far.
Playing Matchmaker: While most of the top contenders have a DH situation pretty well set in stone, unlikely to even call Atlanta about an Ozuna trade, there are two teams near the wild card cut line who could definitely use him: San Diego Padres and Texas Rangers. Texas, in particular, has gotten jack squat from its DH spot this season, despite throwing anything and everything at the wall there. A staggering 19 different players have combined for a deplorable .525 OPS as DH for the Rangers this season. Maybe Ozuna can save them.
Bryan Reynolds, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
8 of 11
Prorated Contract: $4M, $14.25M in 2026, $15.25M in 2027, $15.25M in 2028, $15.25M in 2029, $15.25M in 2030, $20M club option for 2031
2025 Stats: .234/.290/.377, 10 HR, 50 RBI, 3 SB, -0.7 bWAR
Recent Peak(s): All-Star in both 2021 and 2024; hit at least 24 home runs in each of the past four seasons
Prior to this season, Bryan Reynolds was a consistently solid contributor, arguably a top-50 player in baseball over the course of his first six seasons in the league. At any rate, his triple-slash during that time (.276/.352/.470) was virtually identical to Carlos Correa's (.274/.353/.468).
But the switch-hitting outfielder just hasn't been able to get into a rhythm this season, particularly in the left-handed batter's box from which he typically does the most damage.
Reynolds had a .911 OPS against right-handed pitchers in 2021, followed by marks of .814, .821 and .821 again over the next three seasons. But he's sitting at a .636 OPS as a left-handed batter this year, becoming the poster boy of Pittsburgh's shortcomings on offense.
If a new hitting coach can say the magic words to fix his left-handed swing and get him back to what he was before this season, though, he could be a huge add for the stretch run, as well as a bargain for the next five years.
Playing Matchmaker: Save for the couple of weeks when Dominic Canzone was on fire, right field has been a season-long struggle for the Seattle Mariners, and Victor Robles is nowhere close to returning from the shoulder dislocation that has had him on the shelf since early April. The long-term finances might be tricky, but that's a problem for the future.
Luis Robert Jr., CF, Chicago White Sox
9 of 11
Prorated Contract: $5M, $20M club option or $2M buyout for 2026, same option for 2027 if 2026 is exercised
2025 Stats: .206/.293/.343, 10 HR, 41 RBI, 26 SB, 0.6 bWAR
Recent Peak(s): 38 HR in 2023; Gold Glove CF in 2020
Through 50 games played, Luis Robert Jr. had 21 stolen bases, leading the majors to that point in the season. And then he just...stopped running, with one successful stolen base in two attempts over his next 29 games, as we all began to question whether anyone would be willing to give up anything to acquire him.
But after proving he could still provide value in that department, maybe he was just saving his legs for the final couple of weeks before the trade deadline? Because Robert had three stolen bases (and a home run) as the White Sox swept the Pirates to open the second half.
There is, of course, still the issue of his two-year vanishing act at the dish. What was a career .827 OPS through his first four seasons in the bigs has become a .649 OPS since the beginning of last season.
But that's precisely why he's a buy-low candidate who may or may not actually get dealt as opposed to the premier deadline attraction we were anticipating months ago.
Playing Matchmaker: Most teams can't/won't gamble $7M (factoring in the 2026 buyout) on Robert amounting to something over the next two months, but both teams battling for NL East supremacy might deem it a necessary risk. The New York Mets have gotten a combined four home runs and 10 stolen bases from their "as CF" split this season, while the Philadelphia Phillies are sitting at three and 14, respectively. The Mets feel more likely to make it happen, though, as the Phillies could just call up Justin Crawford instead while focusing their deadline efforts entirely on upgrading their atrocious bullpen.
Luis Severino, RHP, Athletics
10 of 11
Prorated Contract: $6.5M, $25M for 2026, $22M player option for 2027
2025 Stats: 125.1 IP, 4.95 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, 0.2 bWAR
Recent Peak(s): 182 IP with sub-4.00 ERA in 2024; All-Star and Cy Young vote recipient in both 2017 and 2018
Investing at least $31M—possibly north of $53M, pending that 2027 player option—in a pitcher with an ERA of nearly 5.00 would typically be an immediate hard pass.
Case in point, even with the Rockies in complete disarray while the Diamondbacks approach a fire sale of their own, no one is talking about Kyle Freeland (5.23 ERA, roughly $38M remaining on contract) or Eduardo Rodriguez (5.50 ERA, at least $46M remaining on contract) as a top trade target.
But Luis Severino could be a major exception to the rule in light of his extreme home/road splits.
In 12 starts at Sutter Health Park, Severino has gotten shelled to the tune of a 6.68 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. However, in his 10 starts this season that haven't come at the Triple-A venue in West Sacramento, he has a 3.03 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, including a quality start in Houston on Thursday.
It's noteworthy that Severino is putting up by far the worst strikeout numbers of his career, but his velocity is no different from last year and he hasn't missed a turn through the rotation yet. Could be a phenomenal "change of scenery" candidate.
Playing Matchmaker: Take your pick, really. Just about every contender that isn't a notorious penny pincher could use this multi-year solution in its rotation. But either the San Francisco Giants or San Diego Padres make arguably the most sense, given their current rotations, their current smack-dab-on-the-postseason-bubble status, the impending departure of an eight-figure salaried starting pitcher in free agency and the fact that their home parks are infinitely more pitcher-friendly than the Athletics.
Michael A. Taylor, OF, Chicago White Sox
11 of 11
Prorated Contract: $650,000, FA this winter
2025 Stats: .220/.288/.393, 5 HR, 25 RBI, 7 SB, 0.5 bWAR
Recent Peak(s): 21 HR in 2023; Gold Glove CF in 2021
Over the previous four seasons, Michael A. Taylor's strikeout rate (29.1 percent) was slightly higher than his on-base percentage (.289). Yet, because of his glove/range in center and his potential for the occasional home run or stolen base—more than 100 of each in his career—he was still a coveted asset up until this past winter, after even the Pirates couldn't stomach what was a career-worst .543 OPS, releasing him in late September.
In what has been limited playing time with the White Sox, however, the 34-year-old has re-established that he could provide some value to a contender down the stretch.
Taylor's Fielding Run Value and Outs Above Average are a far cry from what they used to be, though he has shown himself to be at least serviceable at all three outfield spots, logging at least 150 innings in each. And though he does still whiff quite often (74 K in 213 PA), his OPS (.680) is slightly better than his career average of .672.
Playing Matchmaker: Taylor adds another stop to his tour of the AL Central, landing with the Cleveland Guardians. Whether they choose to primarily deploy him in center or right, it can't be worse than what they've tried so far this season. The minimal salary is certainly within Cleveland's wheelhouse, too.
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