Predicting 1 Second-Half MLB Breakout Candidate for Every Team
A breakout performance during the first half of the MLB season can often land a player at the All-Star Game and make him one of the biggest stories of the year for his team.
In the second half, breakout performances are more likely to fly under the radar, but they can serve as the foundation for an expanded role the following year, a chance to make an impact in October and more earning power in the offseason for players who have reached arbitration.
Ahead we've highlighted one second-half breakout candidate for each MLB team, focusing on players who were trending up heading into the All-Star break, guys that still have untapped potential and a handful of guys who could wind up seeing an uptick in playing time as a result of guys ahead of them on the depth chart being traded.
Keep an eye on these 30 guys over the final two months of the season.
AL East
1 of 6
Baltimore Orioles: 1B Coby Mayo
With nothing left to prove in the minors, Mayo has sort of been in limbo this season, bouncing between Triple-A and the majors while stuck behind Ryan O'Hearn on the depth chart at first base. Assuming O'Hearn is moved as expected ahead of the deadline, he should get his first shot at everyday playing time in August, and he has logged a .906 OPS in 1,870 plate appearances in the minors.
Boston Red Sox: IF Romy Gonzalez
Gonzalez had a fantastic, albeit injury-shortened first half, hitting .326/.364/.582 for a 158 OPS+ with 15 doubles, five home runs and 28 RBI in 154 plate appearances. The 28-year-old backs that production with fantastic batted-ball metrics, and a clean bill of health and more regular playing time in the second half could pave the way for a true breakout performance.
New York Yankees: RHP Cam Schlitter
With Clarke Schmidt lost for the year to Tommy John surgery, the Yankees have an opening in their starting rotation, and Schlitter got the first chance to fill it when he made his MLB debut on July 9 with 5.1 innings of four-hit, three-run ball with seven strikeouts. The 24-year-old had a 2.82 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 99 strikeouts over 76.2 innings in the minors.
Tampa Bay Rays: RHP Joe Boyle
Armed with a fastball that averages 98.3 mph and a hard slider that is generating a 50.0 percent whiff rate, Boyle has some of the best pure stuff in baseball. The 25-year-old was acquired in the offseason deal that sent Jeffrey Springs to the Athletics, and he posted a 1.85 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 96 strikeouts in 73 innings at Triple-A before making a pair of bulk relief outings on July 6 (5.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 7 K) and July 11 (4.0 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 K).
Toronto Blue Jays: OF Nathan Lukes
The Blue Jays are relying on both Lukes, Joey Loperfido and Myles Straw to start games in the outfield right now, but there will be a playing time crunch once Daulton Varsho returns from a hamstring injury. Lukes is hitting .378/.452/.568 with 14 hits and five walks in his last 13 games, and he started seeing time in the leadoff spot shortly before the All-Star break.
AL Central
2 of 6
Chicago White Sox: RHP Grant Taylor
Despite missing his sophomore season at LSU recovering from Tommy John surgery, Taylor was still taken in the second round in 2023. He made his pro debut last May, but ended up missing three months with a lat strain. This year he dominated Triple-A hitters with a 1.01 ERA and 12.5 K/9 in 26.2 innings, and he closed out the first half pitching in the closer's role after making his MLB debut on June 10. Save chances will be few and far between, but he has the stuff to be an elite bullpen arm.
Cleveland Guardians: 1B/OF C.J. Kayfus
With the oft-injured Chase DeLauter battling a wrist injury, it's starting to look more and more like Kayfus might beat him to the majors as the Guardians continue to search for outfield production. Kayfus, 23, is hitting .307/.399/.557 with 15 doubles, 13 home runs and 51 RBI in 76 games between Double-A and Triple-A, and he checked in at No. 70 on B/R's latest Top 100 prospect list.
Detroit Tigers: RHP Troy Melton
The Tigers deployed Jackson Jobe as a late-inning weapon out of the bullpen down the stretch and into the postseason last year, and they could take a similar approach with Melton in the second half. The 24-year-old has some of the best stuff in the Tigers system, and he has a 3.15 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 93 strikeouts in 71.1 innings in the upper levels of the minors. His stuff could play up in shorter stints out of the bullpen, or he could be utilized as a bulk option.
Kansas City Royals: RHP Kyle Wright
Wright has not pitched in a big league game since Sept. 28, 2023, and he is currently sidelined with an oblique strain, but he is expected to return to action soon, and he could end up being the in-house replacement for Seth Lugo if he is moved at the deadline. The 29-year-old is still not that far removed from going 21-5 with a 3.19 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 174 strikeouts in 180.1 innings during the 2022 campaign.
Minnesota Twins: RHP David Festa
Festa turned a corner after getting shelled by the Brewers on June 22, putting together strong starts against the Tigers (5.2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER), Marlins (6.0 IP, 5 H, 4 ER) and Cubs (5.1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER) to close out the first half. With Pablo López, Bailey Ober and Zebby Matthews all on the injured list, he has a long runway to lock up a rotation spot.
AL West
3 of 6
Athletics: OF Carlos Cortes
A former top prospect in the Mets organization, Cortes became a minor league free agent after the 2024 season and landed with the Athletics on a minor league deal in November. The 28-year-old is hitting .321/.418/.603 with 23 doubles, 16 home runs and 73 RBI in 68 games at Triple-A this year, and he was officially called up for his MLB debut over the All-Star break.
Houston Astros: RHP Miguel Ullola
The Astros have not been shy about promoting their top pitching prospects and using them in a bullpen role, taking that approach with guys like Josh James, Cristian Javier and Hunter Brown to varying levels of success. With a 70-grade fastball and a wipeout slider, Ullola has piled up 523 strikeouts in 381.1 innings over five seasons in the minors.
Los Angeles Angels: 1B Nolan Schanuel
Schanuel flew through the minors to make his MLB debut just a few weeks after he was drafted in 2023, and he posted a 100 OPS+ with 19 doubles, 13 home runs and 54 RBI in 147 games as the everyday first baseman last year. The 23-year-old has taken another step forward so far this year, posting a 113 OPS+ and 1.6 WAR in 92 games, and his upward trajectory could continue with a big second half.
Seattle Mariners: OF Dominic Canzone
The third starting spot in the Mariners outfield alongside Julio Rodríguez and Randy Arozarena has been a revolving door this year, but it looks like Canzone could be the answer. The 27-year-old posted a .925 OPS with 13 home runs in 45 games at Triple-A, and since he was recalled from the minors on June 9, he is hitting .330/.351/.582 with 11 extra-base hits in 94 plate appearances.
Texas Rangers: RHP Kumar Rocker
Former Vanderbilt teammates and top-three overall draft picks Rocker (11 GS, 6.39 ERA, 43 K, 49.1 IP) and Jack Leiter (16 GS, 4.37 ERA, 69 K, 80.1 IP) have both taken their lumps this year in their first extended look in the big leagues, but it feels like a decent bet that one of them will turn a corner in the second half. Rocker has a 4.15 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over his last five starts.
NL East
4 of 6
Atlanta Braves: IF Nacho Alvarez Jr.
Wrist and oblique injuries limited Alvarez to just 11 games at Triple-A Gwinnett, but he hit .361 with 13 hits and nine walks in 49 plate appearances before starting at third base in place of the injured Austin Riley on Saturday and Sunday leading into the All-Star break. If he hits, he could play his way into a super-utility role once Riley returns.
Miami Marlins: RHP Janson Junk
With a 2.68 ERA, 2.13 FIP and a 38-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 50.1 innings during the first half, Junk is having one of the best seasons no one is talking about. The 29-year-old journeyman twirled three consecutive quality starts heading into the All-Star break, and with club control through 2030 he is emerging as a valuable piece of the puzzle for the rebuilding Marlins.
New York Mets: IF Ronny Mauricio
Mauricio missed the entire 2024 season recovering from a torn ACL, but he finally made his return to the MLB roster in early June following a rehab stint in the minors that concluded with nine games at Triple-A where he batted .515/.564/.818 with three home runs in 39 plate appearances. Playing time is there for the taking at third base if he can produce.
Philadelphia Phillies: OF Justin Crawford
Center field has been a revolving door for the Phillies for years, and while Brandon Marsh has done an admirable job filling the void, his defensive metrics (-9 DRS) suggest he belongs back in left field. Crawford is hitting .331/.407/.432 with 23 extra-base hits and 29 steals in 73 games at Triple-A, and it's only a matter of time before he gets a look.
Washington Nationals: 3B Brady House
House made his MLB debut on June 16 and quickly took over as the Nationals primary third baseman, and he was just starting to find his groove at the plate heading into the All-Star break. He hit .293/.310/.488 over his final 10 games, including a 3-for-4 performance with two home runs and three RBI on July 12. He has the potential to join an already talented core of young offensive standouts.
NL Central
5 of 6
Chicago Cubs: RHP Cade Horton
The No. 7 overall pick in the 2022 draft and a top prospect throughout his time in the minors, Horton made his MLB debut on May 10 and immediately became a staple in a banged up Cubs rotation. The 23-year-old has a 4.45 ERA and 4.39 FIP in 56.2 innings, and the best start of his young career came on July 3 when he tossed seven shutout innings against the Guardians.
Cincinnati Reds: RHP Chase Burns
With his fastball averaging 98.1 mph and slider generating a 43.5 percent whiff rate, Burns has a similar electricity in his stuff to teammate Hunter Greene. The No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 draft had a 1.77 ERA with 89 strikeouts in 66 innings in the minors, and while he has taken his lumps since debut in late June with a 6.19 ERA in four starts, the stuff is there for him to quickly turn things and start dominating.
Milwaukee Brewers: 1B Andrew Vaughn
Vaughn hit just .189 with a 47 OPS+ and minus-1.8 WAR for the White Sox this season before the Brewers acquired him in a deal that sent Aaron Civale the other way. The 27-year-old was initially sent to Triple-A, but he made his Brewers debut on July 7, and he went 6-for-14 with two home runs and 10 RBI in 16 plate appearances before the break. He has long been viewed as a change of scenery candidate, and now gets a chance to make an impact for a contender.
Pittsburgh Pirates: RHP Bubba Chandler
How much longer can the Pirates keep Chandler in the minors? One of the top pitching prospects in baseball, he has a 2.82 ERA with 93 strikeouts in 73.1 innings at Triple-A this year. His 11.9 percent walk rate is a tad high, and he has never pitched 120 innings in a pro season, but he has earned a look in the majors. The potential is there for him to be "1A" in the rotation alongside Paul Skenes for a long time.
St. Louis Cardinals: C Yohel Pozo
With Willson Contreras shifting to first base and Ivan Herrera seeing more time at designated hitter than he has in the crouch when healthy, Pozo has made the most of his opportunity as the primary backup to Pedro Pagés. The 28-year-old is hitting .312/.330/.505 with six doubles, four home runs and 14 RBI in 97 plate appearances, and his .290 expected batting average helps legitimize that small sample size production.
NL West
6 of 6
Arizona Diamondbacks: 1B Tristin English
There is a high likelihood that both first baseman Josh Naylor and third baseman Eugenio Suarez are traded by the D-backs ahead of the deadline since both players are headed for free agency, and that would open the door for English to see an expanded role. A third-round pick in 2019, he hit .338/.388/.549 with 23 doubles, nine home runs and 57 RBI in 58 games at Triple-A before making his MLB debut on July 9.
Colorado Rockies: OF Tyler Freeman
The Rockies acquired Freeman at the end of March in the deal that sent Nolan Jones back to Cleveland, and he has carved out a role as the primary right fielder and leadoff hitter for the Rockies. Since making his first appearance in the leadoff spot on June 18, he is hitting .338/.398/.413 with six doubles, six steals and eight runs scored.
Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP Emmet Sheehan
Sheehan made his MLB debut for the Dodgers in 2023, posting a 4.92 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 64 strikeouts in 60.1 innings. He then missed the entire 2024 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he is back healthy and poised to make an impact. The 25-year-old has made two starts and one bulk relief appearance this season, posting a 2.03 ERA with 13 strikeouts in 13.1 innings, and he could fill a variety of roles on the staff in the second half.
San Diego Padres: C Luis Campusano
The light-hitting veteran tandem of Martín Maldonado (50 starts) and Elias Diaz (46 starts) has produced a combined .195/.255/.306 line at the catcher position for the Padres this season. Meanwhile, Campusano is hitting .308/.427/.587 with 14 doubles, 14 home runs and 48 RBI in 57 games at Triple-A. Even if they don't trust his defense behind the plate, he might be the team's best DH option right now.
San Francisco Giants: IF/OF Marco Luciano
Once viewed as the shortstop of the future in San Francisco and a consensus top-50 prospect in baseball prior to the 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023 seasons, Luciano has hit just .217 with 45 strikeouts in 126 plate appearances in the majors. Still only 23 years old, he has an .800 OPS with 19 home runs at Triple-A this season, and he is batting .289/.449/.895 with seven home runs and 18 RBI over 10 games in July.
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