Windhorst Says NBA Free Agency 'Chilled' Due to 7% 2026 Salary Cap Increase Projection

Almost every NBA team came into the offseason without the cap space to sign external free agents, beyond what they could add on veteran minimums or via exceptions.

That isn't the only reason free agency has been a bit more muted than in the past, however, especially when it comes to restricted free agents like Jonathan Kuminga, Josh Giddey, Quentin Grimes and Cam Thomas.

"Last week something happened, deep in the NBA weeds, that I think has chilled the market a little bit," ESPN's Brian Windhorst said Monday during The Hoop Collective podcast (51:50 mark). "The projection was that the salary cap would increase by 10 percent next year, but it is now only projected to increase by seven percent. ... The thing about it is now is when the new media-rights deal is coming in, this is the first year of it. And the salary cap is only allowed to go up by 10 percent a year. The media-rights deal is [more than double what it previously was]. And so there was this belief that the salary cap was going to go up by 10 percent for three straight years, just to fit this in. ... The reason why [it isn't], from what I've been told, is the regional networks. All of those that are struggling."

The translation here, as it pertains to the current market, is that teams may not be quite as apt to hand out lucrative contracts to players like Kuminga or Grimes given that the salary cap won't be expanding quite as much as expected. When you pair some of the uncertainties over the future of cap increases with a lack of available suitors on the open market, you have yourself a recipe for the depressed market that has since transpired.

Players like Kuminga and Giddey will steal ultimately be signed, but they may ultimately opt for shorter-term deals that allow them to revisit free agency more quickly than signing longer-term but team-friendly contracts.