The Biggest Hurdle Each Top-10 2015 NBA Draft Pick Faces During Rookie Season
Rarely is the jump from college to the NBA a seamless transition. Each prospect will ultimately have specific adjustments to make based on his particular weaknesses.
Traditionally, it's big men who take the longest to catch on, given the difference in size and athleticism between NCAA and pro centers.
But even the top guards like D'Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay, as well as the top wings, such as Mario Hezonja, Stanley Johnson and Justise Winslow, should be looking at steep learning curves in 2015-16.
Whether it's adjusting to a faster pace, finishing over length or improving overall decision-making, we broke down the biggest hurdle or challenge each top-10 selection will have to overcome as a rookie.
Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves, PF/C
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Biggest Hurdle: Generating consistent one-on-one offense
Avoiding foul trouble will be a secondary obstacle for Karl-Anthony Towns, but if he wants to meet the bar that's typically set for No. 1 picks offensively, his challenge will be generating consistent one-on-one offense.
Despite all the upside he offers, at 19 years old, he's just not overly polished.
His post game is fairly basic. Towns is predictable with his back to the basket, where he'll either deliver a hook shot over his left shoulder or a drop-step into a shot over his right. He decides on a move and continues with it, regardless of how the defense reacts.
Eventually, opposing bigs will catch on, and Towns must develop some counters. He's shooting just 33.3 percent through three summer league games.
Towns will pick up his fair share of finishes around the basket, and chances are he'll flash shooting touch throughout the season. Having a setup man like Ricky Rubio will help, and adding better shooters around him should create more space for the No. 1 overall pick to operate.
However, don't count on Towns taking over many games offensively. The odds are against him emerging as a big-time scorer during his rookie season.
D'Angelo Russell, Los Angeles Lakers, PG/SG
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Biggest Hurdle: Creating high-percentage shots (inefficiency)
Though incredibly skilled with the ball, as a pro, D'Angelo Russell's lack of blow-by speed, explosiveness and strength will make it harder for him to separate off the dribble as a playmaker, scorer and finisher.
He's not a true breakdown guard who's going to consistently penetrate the heart of a defense. And Russell isn't an above-the-rim leaper who can rise above interior defenses.
"He's moving at the controlled speed he wants, but the game is moving faster," Bleacher Report's Kevin Ding tweeted in reference to Russell during summer league.
Against bigger and longer NBA guards, creating high-percentage shots, both for himself and teammates, will be a much greater challenge.
We've already seen him struggle through three games in summer league, where he's shot 33.3 percent and racked up 20 turnovers to just 10 assists.
Russell relies on difficult, precise shot-making ability and thread-the-needle passing accuracy. His margin for error next year won't be overly high.
Efficiency could ultimately prove tough for Russell to achieve in 2015-16.
Jahlil Okafor, Philadelphia 76ers, C
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Biggest Hurdle: Defense
Defense was easily the most well-documented hole in Jahlil Okafor's resume heading into the draft. He just doesn't come off as a natural rim protector, given his questionable instincts, bounce and subpar block percentage at Duke (4.5 percent).
Okafor reacts slowly and struggles to elevate off the ground—weaknesses that could make him easy to score on around the basket.
Understanding when to rotate down will also take time.
NBA teams are guaranteed to target Okafor in the pick-and-roll game away from the rim, where his slow lateral foot speed becomes exposed.
Versatile stretch bigs will also give him trouble. We saw Frank Kaminsky face up and attack Okafor multiple times during the national championship game.
He'll score plenty of points next year. The challenge for Okafor will be not giving up too many at the other end.
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Kristaps Porzingis, New York Knicks, PF
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Biggest Hurdle: Physicality
No surprise here—Kristaps Porzingis' biggest challenge will be holding his own physically around the key and the rim.
The Knicks list him at 220 pounds, which is what Boston Celtics point guard Marcus Smart weighs. Though he's shown a willingness to bang during summer league, Porzingis is easy to move under the boards, where he was a subpar rebounder in Europe. He'll be vulnerable defending back-to-the-basket scorers who can overpower him.
Separating offensively in the post could be a challenge for Porzingis as well. In Las Vegas, we've occasionally seen him bounce backward after looking to initiate contact.
“I’ve got to get stronger,” Porzingis told the New York Daily News' Frank Isola. “Ten pounds, 15 pounds, maybe 20, maybe 30. Little by little I’ll be putting on the weight."
Mario Hezonja, Orlando Magic, SG/SF
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Biggest Challenge: Shot selection
Mario Hezonja has played fewer than 16 minutes per game in each of his last two seasons for Barcelona. And with Tobias Harris returning to the Magic, as well as Victor Oladipo and Aaron Gordon, Hezonja's opportunities in 2015-16 may be limited once again.
His challenge will be staying patient. Hezonja's shot selection is loose as it is—most of his attempts are jumpers, with many coming well behind the arc.
Confident and ultra-aggressive, Hezonja will undoubtedly want to prove himself to Orlando fans. And it's easy to envision him hunting for shots when on the floor, knowing he won't get too many chances to create them.
Hezonja must ultimately do his best to control his urges and capitalize opportunistically within Orlando's offense.
Willie Cauley-Stein, Sacramento Kings, C
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Biggest Hurdle: Producing and staying active without post touches or shooting range
The Sacramento Kings drafted Willie Cauley-Stein to protect the rim, as well as provide valuable defensive versatility.
But he isn't going to see many scoring opportunities in the post or plays that run through him in general. Without an advanced offensive game, a credible jumper or frequent touches, Cauley-Stein will have to find ways to stay active and productive.
He wasn't always able to do that at Kentucky, where he'd occasionally drift or disappear through stretches.
Being able to make a consistent impact despite being a fifth offensive option will be Cauley-Stein's biggest challenge as a rookie.
Emmanuel Mudiay, Denver Nuggets, PG
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Biggest Hurdle: Decision-making
Emmanuel Mudiay's physical tools, athleticism and playmaking ability should help him overcome questionable shooting touch as a rookie. It's consistently making the right basketball decisions that be will his biggest challenge.
Mudiay's shot selection isn't the tightest, nor is his ball security, having coughed it up 4.1 times per 40 minutes in China. Assuming the Nuggets move on from Ty Lawson sooner rather than later, the ball will be in Mudiay's hands a lot.
If that were to happen, it could make Mudiay both the favorite for Rookie of the Year and the NBA's turnover leader.
He's going to put up plenty of points and assists—the challenge for Mudiay will be efficiently running Denver's offense.
Stanley Johnson, Detroit Pistons, SF
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Biggest Hurdle: Finishing against rim protection
At 6'7", 245 pounds with above-average athleticism, you'd think that Stanley Johnson would excel around the hoop. But that just wasn't the case in college, where he shot an awful 40.3 percent at the rim in the half court, per Hoop-Math.com.
It won't get any easier for Johnson against bigger, stronger and longer interior NBA defenders. He just isn't particularly explosive off two feet or bouncy off one.
On a positive note, Johnson has been able to neutralize his struggles as a finisher with a terrific pull-up and floater game. But if those struggles at the rim carry over from college, it could be tough for Johnson to shoot a strong percentage from the floor next season.
Frank Kaminsky, Charlotte Hornets, PF/C
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Biggest Hurdle: Adjusting to NBA's speed and athleticism
Despite 7'0" size, sharp offensive skills and a high basketball IQ, Frank Kaminsky was never viewed as top-five material. His NBA outlook has been clouded by a lack of athleticism, strength and length, limitations expected to make it difficult for him to separate off the dribble, protect the rim and control the glass.
Kaminsky ultimately did most of his work in the post last year. But executing there against quicker, longer and more explosive athletes his size will be much tougher. He doesn't get high off the ground, and with a short 6'11" wingspan for a big, finishing inside will be challenging as well.
This will likely force Kaminsky to become more of a full-time stretch big on the perimeter, which could make it difficult to maintain consistency or take over for stretches as a scorer.
It won't come any easier to Kaminsky on defense, where he lacks lateral quickness and the bulk to bang.
Justise Winslow, Miami Heat, SF
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Biggest Hurdle: Threatening the defense in the half court
Justise Winslow's blend of athleticism, agility and strength translates to potent open-floor offense, but he's not as dangerous when the game gets slowed down.
Winslow isn't an adept shot-creator against a set defense. He made just two of 19 pull-up jumpers all season at Duke, per DraftExpress' Jonathan Givony.
And though he shot well from three in college, Winslow's small sample size (1.2 makes per game), poor free-throw mark (64.1 percent) and mechanics suggest his numbers were somewhat fluky.
He's missed nine of his first 12 threes in summer league, and it looks like he'll need time to expand his range.
At this point, Winslow's ball skills are behind his physical tools, burst and motor. His challenge will be finding ways to score in the half court, given his questionable shooting touch and unpolished one-on-one game.
All statistics via NBA.com or Sports-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted, and are current through Tuesday, July 14.
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