2025 NBA Free Agency Winners and Losers So Far
With three days of NBA free agency officially done, the landscape of the league is already beginning to change.
Myles Turner leaving the Indiana Pacers for the Milwaukee Bucks has cast ripple effects across the Association. The Denver Nuggets heard Nikola Jokić's cries for more depth and the Los Angeles Lakers found their center, right?
With lots of key free agents still out there (Jonathan Kuminga, Cam Thomas, Chris Paul, Josh Giddey, Russell Westbrook, etc.), these are the three biggest winners and losers of the 2025 free-agency period so far.
Loser: Milwaukee Bucks' Future (and Present)
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The Milwaukee Bucks are desperate, and moves made out of desperation rarely age well.
The Bucks did lure Myles Turner away from the division-rival Indiana Pacers, but at a significant cost. The 29-year-old's contract itself (four years, $107 million) is fine and he's an ideal fit next to Giannis Antetokounmpo.
However, the cost to acquire him is going to haunt this team for years.
Waiving and stretching Damian Lillard's remaining two years and $112.6 million over the next five seasons is going to become a major burden on their cap sheets for the rest of this decade. The $22.5 million he's going to make from Milwaukee for each of the first five seasons is going to take up an estimated 11.2 percent-to-14.6 percent of the salary cap for a Bucks team that already has Antetokounmpo making 35 percent. That's essentially half of the team's total salary going to one active player this season.
Milwaukee was fortunate that Taurean Prince and Gary Trent Jr. both agreed to return on veteran minimum deals, although this team still doesn't have a point guard. Turner is a slight upgrade over Brook Lopez (who left for the Los Angeles Clippers), although this is essentially the same roster that finished fifth in the East last season with an All-Star season from Lillard.
Without him (or any other point guard to this point), the Bucks will be lucky just to make the playoffs, much less complete for a title as Antetokounmpo turns 31 in December.
Milwaukee also doesn't control its own draft pick until 2031, so tanking is out of the question.
The ceiling for this team is quite low moving forward, and it now has to navigate around a $22.5 cap hit for the next five years. The Antetokounmpo trade rumors won't go away anytime soon.
Winner: Damian Lillard
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Getting paid $113 million to go pick whatever team you want to play for is a heck of a start to free agency for Damian Lillard.
The soon-to-be 35-year-old is a free agent for the first time in his Hall of Fame career. While a lengthy rehab process from a torn Achilles awaits, he has complete control of where he wants to go and when he wants to go.
This could mean signing with a team immediately and immersing himself in the facility and being around his new teammates. It could mean waiting until months into the regular season to see which teams are separating themselves as contenders. With $113 million already guaranteed to be on its way, there's no hurry here.
As talented as Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo were together, the Milwaukee Bucks were quickly running out of ways to improve the team. With no tradeable draft picks until 2031 and little young talent to develop or dangle in deals, the team was essentially stuck in purgatory.
Don't expect Lillard to sign anytime soon, nor should he. Taking some time off for a mental refresh and to be around his kids while evaluating his options and cashing those checks from Milwaukee are the only things on his to-do list right now.
Loser: Los Angeles Lakers' Plan
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The Los Angeles Lakers are stuck between two worlds: One that revolves around 26-year-old Luka Dončić and the other 40-year-old LeBron James. Rich Paul basically said as much with his public statements.
While the Lakers figure out how James fits in their plans (if he still does), the rest of the roster is still far from championship-ready.
Los Angeles saw Dorian Finney-Smith walk out the door for nothing just months after giving up three second-round picks for his services. The veteran forward and favorite of Dončić had a swing rating of plus-17.1 (!!!) for the Lakers last season, good for the 99th percentile via Cleaning the Glass.
Losing Anthony Davis and now Finney-Smith is going to cripple this defense, especially since James has stopped locking in on that end of the floor until April.
There's some upside with Jake LaRavia, although it was weird to see the Lakers rush to target him in free agency with a two-year, $12 million deal that ate up a chunk of the $14.1 mid-level exception. The 23-year-old now joins his third team in four seasons.
Deandre Ayton is not the answer to this team's center problems. This is the NBA's next Andre Drummond, a former high draft pick of a center who put up big numbers earlier in his career, got paid, but whose game just isn't translating to an increasingly modernized style of play.
Dončić is best suited to play with a big who can knock down threes, protect the rim and be a lob target. At best, Ayton is one of these on a good night and has consistently shown a lack of effort and focus.
As a starting center playing over 30 minutes a night, the 26-year-old challenged just 3.6 shots a game at the rim last season. This was tied for 78th overall in the NBA with non-bigs such as Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr. and Derrick White. Portland gave up 4.9 more points per 100 possessions with Ayton on the floor (14th percentile).
The Lakers would have been better off trading for a center like Jarrett Allen or Daniel Gafford and keeping Finney-Smith on a long-term deal.
This defense is going to struggle, James' future is still up in the air and the center position is far from settled in L.A.
Winner: New York Knicks
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The New York Knicks were just two wins away from the NBA Finals and have only gotten deeper in free agency while the rest of an already weak Eastern Conference has crumbled around them.
The Boston Celtics, Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks will all be worse after Jayson Tatum, Tyrese Haliburton and Damian Lillard (who's now a free agent) all suffered postseason Achilles injuries.
The Cleveland Cavaliers made the surprising decision not to offer Ty Jerome a contract after he finished third in Sixth Man of the Year voting and no other teams outside of the Orlando Magic (Desmond Bane, Tyus Jones) and Atlanta Hawks (Kristaps Porziņģis, Nickeil Alexander-Walker) made a significant step forward.
By switching from Tom Thibedeau to Mike Brown at head coach, the Knicks can now lean into their bench more, a group that has become much better over the last few days.
Jordan Clarkson, 33, was a surprise addition to the 2025 free-agency class after the Utah Jazz bought him out of his contract. The veteran guard averaged 16.2 points, 3.2 rebounds, 3.7 assists and made 36.2 percent of his threes last season. He'll help keep Jalen Brunson fresh next year and add a much-needed scoring punch to the second unit.
Guerschon Yabusele seemed like an obvious target for the San Antonio Spurs to join his French Olympic teammate, Victor Wembanyama. The Knicks were the surprising winners for his services, though, signing him to a very reasonable two-year, $12 million deal.
The 29-year-old big man was one of the few bright spots for the Philadelphia 76ers last season, averaging 11.0 points, 5.6 rebounds, 2.1 assists and making 38.0 percent of his threes.
New York can comfortably go nine-men deep (along with Mitchell Robinson and Miles McBride off the bench) and now has a coach who will take advantage of this new-found depth.
Loser: Indiana Pacers
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The Indiana Pacers were always going to face an uphill battle this season without Tyrese Haliburton. Losing another starter to free agency for just a $3 million difference in average annual salary isn't a good look for a franchise that came within one win of a championship.
Per Spencer Davies of RG Media, the Pacers offered Turner a three-year, $66 million contract but wouldn't go up to the $25 million per season that the veteran center was asking for.
Indiana's ownership is very much against paying the luxury tax, yet it still could have matched Turner's four-year, $107 million deal from the Bucks and made a smaller move to duck back under.
The Pacers are currently $20 million under the luxury-tax line, with Turner's 2025-26 salary projected to come in at $24.8 million. Trading former lottery pick Jarace Walker to a team with space would have meant being able to afford Turner and stay out of the tax.
If there was ever a time to not be cheap, this was it.
Even without Haliburton, a starting five of Andrew Nembhard, Bennedict Mathurin, Aaron Nesmith, Pascal Siakam and Turner with T.J. McConnell, Obi Toppin, Ben Sheppard and others off the bench would still have been really good and a lock for the playoffs in the East.
We all thought Turner's days in Indiana would eventually come to an end, just not like this.
Winner: Denver Nuggets' Title Chances
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It's time to party like it's 2023.
Following disappointing playoff exits the past two years, the Denver Nuggets are officially title contenders once again. There's perhaps no team in the NBA that has had a better offseason to this point.
Denver needed to improve its veteran depth and find a capable backup center behind Nikola Jokić all while being mindful of a second apron tax line that the franchise has been flirting with for the past couple of seasons.
Check, check and check.
Trading Michael Porter Jr. and a future first-round pick for Cam Johnson helped unlock more free-agent flexibility, as it shaved $17 million off the payroll and opened up the full $14.1 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception that Denver can now use. The Nuggets also generated a $16.7 million trade exception from the Porter trade that they can use to take in salary.
Getting both Bruce Brown and Tim Hardaway Jr. on veteran minimum deals were pleasant surprises for guys who combined to make nearly $40 million last season. Trading Dario Šarić for Jonas Valančiūnas solved the backup center problem without the Nuggets having to use their exception on one.
Denver can now chase a backup point guard (Chris Paul, Malcolm Brogdon) and still stay under the second apron ($17.8 million below) or are one small move away from avoiding the luxury tax altogether ($915,646 above).
Jokić should be thrilled, making it more likely he signs an extension with the Nuggets this summer.
