A Jonathan Kuminga Sign-and-Trade Idea Where Everybody Wins

Golden State Warriors restricted free agent Jonathan Kuminga might be the most talented player left on the NBA free-agent market, but the dearth of cap space around the league means offer sheets haven't exactly rolled in for him.

That makes a sign-and-trade scenario one of the only realistic ways for him to depart a frustrating situation with the Warriors.

Kuminga's Golden State tenure has been defined by the chasm between what kind of player he wants to be (a superstar) and the team's belief that he's actually a complementary role player. The Chicago Bulls are among the few teams reported to have interest in the 22-year-old forward, per NBA Insider Jake Fischer of The Stein Line Substack, so let's explore what a potential sign-and-trade could look like.

How do we get one of the most physically gifted young players in the league to a destination where he can expand his game and and potentially become a star?

All it takes is a mildly complicated sign-and-trade swap.

The Trade

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Golden State Warriors Acquire: Coby White

Chicago Bulls Acquire: Jonathan Kuminga

Why the Bulls Do It

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For all of his inconsistency as a team defender and rebounder, despite his struggles to make quick decisions on offense and regardless of his slightly inflated view of where he belongs in a team’s hierarchy, Kuminga has a mountain of raw talent.

The Bulls should be willing to risk the downsides of onboarding Kuminga because the potential payoff—legitimate stardom—could be massive.

Kuminga has averaged 20.5 points, 6.6 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.0 steals and 0.7 blocks per 36 minutes while posting a 58.3 true shooting percentage throughout his four-year career. Those numbers are probably worth $25 million per season in a vacuum. At just 22, Kuminga should be expected to better them going forward.

Coby White is a valuable player, but his low salary makes him difficult to extend. With unrestricted free agency looming next summer, the Bulls might want to get something for him while they still can. 

If Kuminga's salary comes in around the $20-21 million range, this can be a straight one-for-one swap from the Bulls' perspective. Anything higher than that, and Chicago would need to cut some salary or add additional players to the deal. Jevon Carter ($6.8 million) or Dalen Terry ($5.4 million) have figures the Bulls could work with.

On the court, Tre Jones is back on a three-year deal, and restricted free agent Josh Giddey is also expected to return. With them, Chicago is somewhat insulated from the loss of ball-handling White’s departure would create. If Kuminga can be a 20-point scorer on reasonable efficiency, he could replace White’s role in that sense while adding major size and athletic punch.

You don't get many chances at a player with Kuminga's potential. If all it costs is a starting guard whom you can spare (and whom you might lose for nothing next summer anyway), why hold back?

Why the Warriors Do It

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The optimal course for Golden State would be to not trade Kuminga this summer. Base-year compensation rules make an exchange more complicated than they need to be.

If possible, the Dubs should sign Kuminga to a deal similar to the one Jalen Green got from the Houston Rockets last summer (three years and $105 million, with a player option on the final season) and then look to move him ahead of February's trade deadline. BYC rules wouldn’t limit them to taking back half of Kuminga’s outgoing salary in that scenario.

However, that pathway assumes nobody involved has any emotions, which isn’t the case in reality.

A sign-and-trade comes with downsides of its own. This deal would hard-cap the Warriors at the first apron and would cost them the use of the full mid-level exception unless they trimmed semi-significant salary elsewhere. Buddy Hield or Moses Moody could be cap casualties.

Is that worth it for White? It could be if the Dubs don't view anyone on the market as being worth the MLE, and if they also believe bringing Kuminga back in any capacity is a non-starter.

Kuminga has wanted to be a first-option All-Star from the jump, but the Warriors don’t see him in that role. The relationship between him and head coach Steve Kerr could be further strained this season, and Kuminga’s frustration might boil over.

The Warriors can say they’ll loosen the reins on offense and allow Kuminga to do more on-ball work, but he hasn’t ever proved he can occupy that role consistently. As long as Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler are around, Kuminga's usage can only rise so high.

White is a fringe All-Star who can provide legitimate playmaking and scoring next to or in relief of Curry. He’s just starting his prime at age 25, posted a career-best 20.4 points per game last year and has hit at least 37.0 percent of his triples in each of the past four seasons.

Golden State fell apart offensively without Curry running the show last season. White would give the Warriors their best scoring and playmaking guard since late-2022 Jordan Poole.

It'd be tough to part with Kuminga, but the fit has never worked, and the chemistry risks of bringing him back are only growing. They'd be better off closing that chapter, adding a quality guard at a good price and moving on.