Point Guard Concerns Remain Without Sergio Llull on Horizon for Houston Rockets

With the offseason winding down, the Houston Rockets have made no significant changes to their roster, and that includes where they needed to make one the most: at point guard.

The team website announced the official re-signing of Patrick Beverley.

The one quarterback the Rockets tried to acquire, Sergio Llull, rejected them, per Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski. Additionally, E. Carchia of Sportnado reported that Llull signed an extension with Real Madrid:

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Sergio Llull reached an agreement with Real Madrid for a contract extension till June 2021.

The Spanish guard turned down an offer from the Houston Rockets to remain in Spain with the Euroleague and ACB champions.

Llull’s new buyout for the NBA will be lower than €5 million ($5,578,250) as in his old deal which was set to expire in 2018.

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There’s no report on what the new buyout is, but the lower one might be helpful for the Rockets next season. It does little to help them this season, though.

Free agent Marcus Thornton agreed to a one-year minimum deal with the Rockets, per Yahoo Sports' Marc J. Spears. His agent, Tony Dutt, explained to Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle why:

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"He needs to play to sort of re-invent himself in the league and this was a perfect fit,” said Dutt, who said Thornton turned down larger offers with other teams to sign with the Rockets. “There were some teams trying to do some things for him, but this was right. He’s very excited. This is going to be fun.”

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He averaged just 7.9 points and 0.8 assists last season. He's also played his entire career as a shooting guard. That doesn't scream "new starting point guard." 

The Need

Don Ryan/Associated Press

Beverley is the resident starter. He was Second-Team All-Defense in 2013-14 and remains a stout defender, but he has been insufficient offensively, averaging 10.1 points and 3.4 assists, last season. Furthermore, he only had 72 unassisted field goals, per Basketball-Reference.com. 

Pablo Prigioni made some valuable contributions in the postseason, but he is 38-years old and limited defensively. Neither provides the Rockets with a second playmaker who can pass and score with consistency.

The concern is valid for the Rockets, who apart from James Harden have little help in creating points. In fact,  Harden scored 2,217 points and generated another 1,382 last season.

Let's look at how that compares with the other top producers in the league. The first tab in the chart below shows points created, either through scoring or passing. The second chart shows how many points were produced by each man’s teammates (the difference between the team’s total points and those generated by the player). Finally, the last tab shows the percentage of points the player created.

As you can see, Harden produced more points and a higher percentage of them than any player in the league. Furthermore, only John Wall’s Washington Wizard teammates failed to provide more help for him than Harden had.

In other words, no one did more with less than Harden. And accordingly, no one deserves to say he needs another playmaker more.

So on May 29, when Feigen asked him about adding one, no one can fault Harden for saying: "That's one of the conversations me and Daryl (Morey) are going to have, (and) the coaches. That's one of the pieces to add, but that's later conversations. We'll be all right. We're very confident in the group we have. This summer we have to work hard and be ready for next year."

The failure of the Rockets to do that may have Harden discouraged—and fans as well.

The problem is compounded by the fact that Josh Smith, arguably the team’s second best creator and facilitator, remains unsigned. However, Feigen reported that appears to be the plan:

Can They Do Anything?

Elise Amendola/Associated Press

This deep into the free-agency season, what is left for the Rockets to do?

There is a smattering of point guards still available, though there are no credible rumors tying the Rockets to any of them. Andre Miller has more career assists than any active player and is ninth all-time, but he is well past his prime.  

Norris Cole is available, but he’s sort of a poor man’s version of Patrick Beverley.

Rick Bowmer/Associated Press

There are a couple of more appealing options. Jameer Nelson is a free agent.  He averaged 6.4 assists per 36 minutes and shot 35.4 percent from deep for the Denver Nuggets last season.

However, Kalen Deremo of BSN Denver reports Nelson is returning to Mile High. 

That could exacerbate rumors that the Nuggets are looking to trade Ty Lawson. While Lawson would be a good fit in terms of being able to be that secondary playmaker, it's questionable whether the Rockets could put together a competitive package for him that would match his salary without giving up Trevor Ariza. 

Sure, it might be technically possible for Houston to offload enough "ballast" contracts, but the Rockets won't be competing in a vacuum here. Other teams would be vying for his services as well. So, Houston has to beat other offers, and it's hard to do that without including quality players. 

Looking to the Miami Heat for a trade involving Mario Chalmers would be another option. 

Zach Lowe of Grantland reported: "Mario Chalmers and Chris Andersen are available for nothing, per several league sources..." The Rockets' Kostas Papanikolaou is effectively "nothing" for the Heat since he has a team option on his deal, and that would be enough to make the deal work.

Chalmers is a solid defensive player, illustrated by his plus-.45 defensive real plus-minus at ESPN.com. He’s a decent creator and facilitator and is a 36.2 percent career shooter from deep. 

Perhaps most importantly, he’s won two titles playing off of LeBron James, so being a point guard who contributes without being the primary playmaker—as he would be in Houston—is familiar territory to him.

There is the possibility of improving from within, developing Nick Johnson, but he was only 23.8 percent from three last year and would have to show drastic improvement in his shot. Furthermore, he only aided his teammates with 1.5 assists per 36 minutes. Even by the most liberal standards of scoring point guards, that’s not acceptable.

There’s always the chance of discovering gold in summer league, but it’s more likely to be pyrite than the real thing.

The hard truth is that, other than the addition of Thornton and rookies Sam Dekker and Montrezl Harrell, the roster will likely be the same as it was last year when the season tips off. However, as I wrote last week, there are arguments which favor continuity.

That doesn’t mean the roster will finish the same, though. General manager Daryl Morey told Feigen:

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We don't have the perfect roster, or we would have won the championship. There are areas we can continue to improve, and we'll work to address them.

I don't ever worry about having a great offseason. That's never a goal. We're worried about being a better team in April. We have the flexibility to add free agents. We have the flexibility to make trades if they're available as well.

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To borrow from an old saying, it’s not whom you start with; it’s whom you finish with. Morey established the ability to improve on the fly last year, and he could very well do so again this year. Rather than settle for something now, he may be waiting for a better deal to come along.

Of course, there’s no guarantee one will. Whether this gambit pays off, we’ll have to wait until April to find out. For now, the Rocket still have the same gaping need they did before the offseason started.

Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless noted otherwise.