Predicting Buy, Sell or Hold for Every MLB Team at the 2025 Trade Deadline
It will be hard (some might say impossible) for the rest of Major League Baseball's summer trading season to top what happened on Sunday.
With the July 31 trade deadline still weeks away, the Boston Red Sox and San Francisco Giants chose not to wait to make an absolute stunner of a deal centered on Rafael Devers. He is now an ex-Red Sox and current Giant, and it'll be a while before the whirlwind stops whirling.
And yet the question remains: What happens next?
That will come down to 30 different teams making 30 different decisions, though they'll come in one of three flavors: buy, sell or hold.
The goal here is to predict which of those directions each team in MLB will take. This is an exercise in reading tea leaves, specifically looking at where teams have been and where they seem to be going.
We'll go division by division, starting in the American League East.
American League East
1 of 6
New York Yankees: Buy
Record: 42-29
Well, obviously the Yankees are going to buy. They're on a mission after returning to the World Series in 2024 only to go title-less for a 15th straight season. And as good as they are, they could still be better.
They've had a wonky infield all season, and no position is riper for an upgrade than second base. With Jazz Chisholm Jr. now back at third, the keystone has been left undefended against what it left of DJ LeMahieu.
One catch is that the Yanks already have a super-sized payroll, with another being their farm system is frankly terrible. All the same, these things won't stop them from at least trying to buy.
Tampa Bay Rays: Sell
Record: 40-32
The Rays never fail to do Rays things. They never really went away in 2024 despite never really being a good team, and now they have better than even odds to make the playoffs in 2025.
And yet, going all-in or all-out is not their style. They have a bunch of wares they're sure to listen on, including Brandon Lowe, Yandy Díaz, Pete Fairbanks and Garrett Cleavinger. Any one of the four would be an impact addition elsewhere.
Yet even if one, two, three or all four of them are gone come July 31, the Rays are sure to keep sticking around. This is a franchise with a weird sort of split vision, with one eye on today and one eye on tomorrow.
Toronto Blue Jays: Buy
Record: 38-33
The Blue Jays probably aren't as good as they looked amid their 12-2 run from May 28 to June 11, but you might say they're in too deep on trying to contend. A season like this was the whole idea after they extended Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
They should also feel emboldened right now. With Rafael Devers no longer in Boston, their primary pursuer in the AL East should be less of a threat to beat them to a wild-card spot. The best way to make sure is to press harder on the gas.
To this end, the Blue Jays reportedly want a starting pitcher. More help in the bullpen would also be welcome.
Boston Red Sox: Sell
Record: 38-36
At least on paper, the Red Sox made a good deal when they offloaded Devers (more specifically, his contract) to the Giants.
As to their contention chances, well, it's a disaster. They subtracted their best hitter and didn't add much in the way of immediate impact, and you naturally have to wonder about whether the team will come to miss Devers' bat even if it doesn't miss his attitude.
The guess here is the Red Sox are in for some short-term pain, which could facilitate the availability of Walker Buehler, Aroldis Chapman and maybe even controllable types like Wilyer Abreu.
Baltimore Orioles: Sell
Record: 30-41
The O's have come around with 11 wins in their last 16 games, but it feels like too little, too late. Their playoff odds are in the single digits.
This said, there will surely be a limit on what they're willing to deal. Teams can ask about the controllable guys, but their time would be better spent on inquiring about rentals. On that front, Cedric Mullins and Zach Eflin are enticing options.
American League Central
2 of 6
Detroit Tigers: Buy
Record: 46-27
The Tigers have A) the best record in baseball and B) one of the best farm systems in the league.
Earth would have to start spinning in the opposite direction for them not to buy, and it's clear where they need help. The left side of their infield is an obvious weakness calling out for upgrades at third base and/or shortstop.
Prying Bo Bichette from Toronto would be ideal. Failing that, they're a perfect candidate to get in on Eugenio Suárez if the Arizona Diamondbacks pull the plug.
Minnesota Twins: Sell
Record: 36-35
The Twins have a winning record, but they have been decidedly mid on either side of a 13-game win streak in May. And now Pablo López is out for months.
The situation feels like a "the center cannot hold" sort of thing, and the front office may be too risk-averse to simply stay the course in pursuit of a mere wild-card spot. With the Tigers playing the way they are, the AL Central ship has sailed.
It's hard to see them blowing it up, though. Chris Paddack and some of the club's bullpen arms figure to draw interest, but teams surely aren't going to get at Joe Ryan...right?
Cleveland Guardians: Sell
Record: 35-35
Here, we have another risk-averse franchise that has stalled out in its pursuit of the Tigers in the AL Central. And, alas, Shane Bieber may not be up to playing the hero with this one.
Barring an unlikely hot streak between now and July 31, the Guardians figure to cut their losses. Pending free agents such as Carlos Santana and Lane Thomas will be obvious trade chips, though teams can at least ask about the guys on the top shelf.
For example, whispers of a potential Emmanuel Clase trade have already begun.
Kansas City Royals: Sell
Record: 34-38
The Royals got into their season with the best intentions, and there is still buzz here and there about them looking to buy at the deadline.
We're not, well, buying it. They have been in freefall since going eight games over .500 on May 9, and things aren't going to get any easier with Cole Ragans seemingly on the sidelines for a long time.
The Royals won't have a ton to offer the market, but they'll at least have to consider moving short-term chips like Carlos Estévez, Jonathan India and Michael Lorenzen.
Chicago White Sox: Sell
Record: 23-49
The White Sox are an obvious seller on paper, but what can a seller sell when buyers don't like what they have to sell?
This will be one of the big deadline-related questions going forward, specifically relating to Luis Robert Jr. If he's going to start redeeming his trade value, it has to be now.
American League West
3 of 6
Houston Astros: Hold
Record: 41-31
With yet another AL West title in their sights, the Astros have no good reason not to buy at the trade deadline. But it also won't be that simple.
With a bloated payroll and a weak farm system, there are limitations on what they can buy. And while they could use more pitching to cover for their injuries, neither that nor their lineup has any real five-alarm fires.
By WAR, their worst position is designated hitter. But to solve that, they merely need to wait out Yordan Alvarez's return from a bothersome hand injury.
Seattle Mariners: Buy
Record: 36-35
The Mariners have swung wildly in all sorts of different directions this year, and picking up Leody Taveras only to DFA him didn't do their spending capacity any favors.
This said, they have the best farm system in MLB and president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto needs to be treating his job like it's on the line, because it just well may be. He specifically needs bats, and fast.
A reunion with Eugenio Suárez makes a lot of sense, as does a partnership with Josh Naylor. Both are free agents after this year, and thus not likely to be costly.
Texas Rangers: Hold
Record: 36-36
The Rangers were teetering on the edge for a minute there, which gave rise to all sorts of speculation about who they might trade.
Not so fast, partner. Texas has since won seven out of eight, and its offense is beginning to come around under Bret Boone. He deserves a bit more slack, which is to say nothing of Bruce Bochy in what may be his last year of managing.
Perhaps the Rangers could be buyers, but it's easier to imagine them standing pat and hoping injury comebacks get them across the finish line. Two big ones waiting to happen are Nathan Eovaldi and Cody Bradford.
Los Angeles Angels: Sell
Record: 34-37
The Angels have done an OK job of sticking around, but nobody is looking at this team and seeing a contender. The playoffs remain strictly in owner Arte Moreno's daydreams.
Granted, that could influence which direction the front office ultimately goes in. But even if a full-on detonation is not in order, the pending free agents should at least be available.
That means Tyler Anderson, Kenley Jansen and Yoán Moncada. And don't overlook Taylor Ward, who is only controlled through next season.
Athletics: Hold
Record: 30-44
The A's are obviously going nowhere and should sell...but what?
It is legitimately hard to come up with answers to this question. There isn't much here in the way of intriguing rentals, and the time to sell high on Mason Miller has passed. The A's had their chance last year and didn't take it.
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National League East
4 of 6
New York Mets: Buy
Record: 45-27
The Mets are right where they want to be, to a point where they can even stop worrying about possibly needing to upgrade over Juan Soto in right field.
Yes, that was a joke. What's not a joke is that they need pitching, be it in their starting rotation, their bullpen or both. Which one takes priority could ultimately depend on when and how well Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas recover from injuries.
In the meantime, they're reportedly prioritizing high-leverage relievers. There are always a bunch of those available, though the next team on this list could crash the Mets' search party.
Philadelphia Phillies: Buy
Record: 43-29
The Phillies are the other team that wants to add high-leverage arms to its pen, which feels like a tale as old as time.
Their pen has had good years here and there, but this year (i.e., 4.46 ERA) is more what you'd call "the norm." And whereas the Mets at least have the closer's role figured out, the Phillies don't. Jordan Romano has been a disaster.
What's for sure is this: Between the club's closing championship window and Dave Dombrowski's love of action, the deadline won't be a boring time in Philly.
Atlanta Braves: Hold
Record: 31-39
The Braves showed signs of life for a minute there, but those have faded and their playoff odds are careening toward "kaput."
And yet, this isn't a franchise in need of a rebuild. Or even a reboot. A simple reset will do, and the Braves can aim for one of those by keeping their roster intact and perhaps seeking a managerial change over the winter.
One guy who could go is Marcell Ozuna, who's on an expiring contract. But with his power down in 2025, whether Atlanta could get good value without eating his $16 million salary is suspect.
Washington Nationals: Sell
Record: 30-42
The Nationals still aren't quite there yet, and they are highly unlikely to get there between now and July 31. The odds are on them selling.
It will be a boring sale, though. Kyle Finnegan and Nathaniel Lowe are nice pieces, and something might be made of Michael Soroka. But if it's priceless trade chips you want, it's best to look at the bottom of this division.
Miami Marlins: Sell
Record: 28-42
Namely, in Miami where Sandy Alcantara resides.
Though the 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner has had a rough go of things in 2025, he's been very good his last two times out. If that momentum continues to build, getting him and as many as two additional years of club control could come at quite the cost for a buyer.
National League Central
5 of 6
Chicago Cubs: Buy
Record: 44-28
The Cubs have opened up a comfortable lead in the NL Central, and that offense of theirs is the greatest show in the league right now.
All they need is pitching, and as much of it as they can get. Their 3.58 ERA is solid on the surface, but both the rotation and the bullpen have their share of instability. The latter could specifically use some swing-and-miss, and a closer more generally.
To this end, the Cubs came into this year with a top-10 farm system. Plenty of doors should be open to them.
Milwaukee Brewers: Hold
Record: 39-34
Remember when the Brewers got their butts handed to them amid an 0-4 start to the year? Even if you do, you probably have an inkling that was a long time ago.
It was indeed, yet the Brewers still need to walk a fine line in relation to the deadline. It's hard to imagine them going all-in, both on account of their deficit to the Cubs and on that of their limited resources.
What they surely need is more offense, but one thing that worked in 2024 could work again in 2025: Waiting for Jackson Chourio to get hot.
Cincinnati Reds: Hold
Record: 37-35
Mark these words: The Reds are a dangerous team.
They have scored 41 more runs than they have allowed, and they can hold out hope Hunter Greene is fully recovered in time for the playoffs. If he is, their October rotation would run five deep.
What's needed is more offense, yet this is another team that has to be cautious. There aren't clear paths to the playoffs via the NL Central title or the NL wild-card race, and there's only so much here in the way of resources.
St. Louis Cardinals: Sell
Record: 37-35
The Cardinals were a nice story early on, but a 4-10 June has cleared up any confusion about how good they actually are.
Despite his contract and waning production, Nolan Arenado remains an interesting trade chip. He badly needs a change of scenery, and he should want one amid the sudden losing. If he gets one, maybe he'll be energized, Frankenstein-style into the Arenado of old.
Otherwise, Ryan Helsley, Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde and Miles Mikolas are here, too. The first of those names is arguably the best reliever who could be available this summer.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Sell
Record: 29-44
Paul Skenes and Oneil Cruz may not be going anywhere, but the Pirates should be willing to listen on everyone else.
This includes rejuvenated closer David Bednar, as well as more interesting pieces such as Ke'Bryan Hayes and Bryan Reynolds. The latter's contract has become an albatross for the Bucs, but he was an All-Star just last year and isn't that expensive by the usual star standards.
National League West
6 of 6
Los Angeles Dodgers: Hold
Record: 44-29
After the Giants fired a shot across their bow with the Rafael Devers trade, is it just a matter of time before the Dodgers respond?
Don't be so sure. Even with Rōki Sasaki's recovery on pause, L.A. still has cause to simply wait for pitching to come to it. Shohei Ohtani is already back, and Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell eventually will be as well.
The bullpen and left field are otherwise underperforming, but that is largely owed to unsustainably bad performances. Specifically, Tanner Scott and Michael Conforto are better than this.
San Francisco Giants: Hold
Record: 41-31
The Giants can't make a move bigger than the one they've already made. In all likelihood, nobody can.
This is not to say they don't still have sore spots in their roster. They could use more pitching, and they are deficient at shortstop and catcher. And unless Devers is going to play first base full-time, it's another area of need.
But then again, the Giants didn't have much to offer in trades even before the Devers deal. And as bad as they have been so far, Willy Adames and Patrick Bailey are going nowhere at shortstop and catcher, respectively.
San Diego Padres: Buy
Record: 39-32
The Padres have been treading water for a while now, notably going 12-17 in their last 29 games. They need to pick it up, because the Dodgers and Giants won't wait for them.
Simply adding a left fielder would go a long way in this regard. It is one of the biggest positional weaknesses in all of MLB, with a total output of -0.9 WAR.
Plus, this is A.J. Preller we're talking about. We'd say he should be acting as if his job is on the line, but it doesn't even matter whether that may be true. He always acts as if it is.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Hold
Record: 36-35
To recap: Arizona is 6.5 games out in the NL West and Corbin Burnes is done for the year with Tommy John surgery.
It's not a great situation, but the D-backs have been coming on strong with nine wins in June. Their offense is legit, and they can have faith that Zac Gallen, Brandon Pfaadt and Eduardo Rodriguez will get their ERAs below 5.00.
What they certainly know is that they have survived worse stretches than this. Even a 7-25 run in 2023 didn't sink their World Series chances.
Colorado Rockies: Sell
Record: 15-57
We end with yet another for the "they'll sell, but what?" file.
Jake Bird is a reliever who should draw a ton of interest, and Ryan McMahon has a more interesting profile than his .733 OPS suggests. But the Rockies are also weird about trading guys, so who knows what they'll do?
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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