The Surprising Battle That’s Swinging the 2025 NBA Finals

The Oklahoma City Thunder entered the 2025 NBA Finals as minus-750 favorites to win the series (giving them implied odds of 88 percent). But after losing to the Indiana Pacers, 116-107, on Wednesday, they're down 2-1 and on the ropes against this postseason's most dynamic offense.

And while Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton and even Bennedict Mathurin have garnered more headlines, it may be Myles Turner who's quietly swinging this series toward the Pacers. Or, more specifically, it might be Turner winning his matchup against Chet Holmgren.

Despite shooting 3-of-11 from the field and scoring just nine points on Wednesday, Turner dominated the fourth quarter and left an impression on fans and analysts alike.

"On paper Chet Holmgren is outplaying Myles Turner and having a good game [with] 20 points and 10 rebounds," NBA draft guru Rafael Barlowe wrote. "But watching the game, it’s clear he's struggling with Indiana's physicality."

"Box score tells the total opposite than what it felt like watching the game," Kevin O'Connor of Yahoo Sports added. "Especially in the fourth quarter, Turner dominated Holmgren."

Indeed, if you just compared the Wednesday numbers of the two big men side by side, you'd think Holmgren came out on top. He had the aforementioned 20 and 10, but he was also a plus-one while Turner was minus-eight.

But in the fourth quarter, which started with the Pacers down five on the scoreboard, Turner was plus-seven in six minutes. He had three of his five blocks in that frame. He made the only shot he took. He handed out an assist for good measure.

And with just over two minutes to play and OKC down six, he stonewalled Chet twice on a single possession, first with a strong closeout that resulted in a blocked three and then after a scramble in which the 2022 No. 2 pick tried Turner again.

Those few seconds were emblematic of the success Turner has had as a defender against Holmgren all series.

The Pacers center is averaging a Finals-best 2.7 blocks, while Holmgren is shooting 40.0 percent from the field and 10.0 percent from three.

So far this series, when Turner is the nearest defender to Holmgren, OKC's third-best player is 6-of-17 from the field. In the same possessions, the Thunder are scoring 95.7 points per 100 possessions. In the regular season, they scored 119.2 points per 100 possessions.

Turner may only be averaging 13.3 points and 5.0 rebounds, while shooting 42.4 percent from the field for the series, but it's Holmgren's numbers that show he's still winning the matchup (and proving matchups are about more than raw numbers).

Turner outweighs the 23-year-old by nearly 40 pounds. He's bullying him inside, without really losing him on the perimeter. And by neutralizing the Thunder's third-leading scorer from the regular season, Turner has made it tough for OKC to match Indiana's high-octane offense.

Despite losing Game 2, the Pacers have three of the eight highest single-game offensive ratings against the Thunder this postseason.

For the overwhelming majority of the 2024-25 campaign, OKC has been able to stifle opponents to the degree that it hasn't really mattered how well they played on offense (though they still finished third on that end).

Now, they need a third scorer to show up dynamically and consistently. Holmgren has done that plenty of times in his career. When you include the playoffs, the Thunder are now 14-2 when he scores at least 20 points. In 2023-24, they were 19-6 when he hit that threshold.

Prior to getting exactly 20 on Wednesday, the Gonzaga product had a total of 21 points in Games 1 and 2.

Outside of the first three quarters of Game 3, Turner (and to a lesser extent, Pascal Siakam and Obi Toppin) has taken Holmgren off the chess board.

And if Holmgren can't figure out how to deal with Turner's physicality and force his way back on, OKC may end up on the wrong end of one of the biggest series upsets in NBA Finals history.