The Dodgers Are Desperate for the Shohei Ohtani They Paid $700M For

The MLB offseason was a long time ago. You can tell from how we're no longer talking about the Los Angeles Dodgers having the best pitching staff ever, much less setting the all-time win record.

But if ever there was a guy who could revive both conversations, it's Shohei Ohtani.

Now in Year 2 of his 10-year, $700 million deal, he already has an inside track at his third straight MVP. His OPS is up from the 1.036 mark he posted last year, and he's cranked a league-leading 20 home runs.

Increasingly, though, the most pressing question is when Ohtani is going to return to the mound and resume his whole "best two-way player ever" act.

That ball has been rolling ever...so...slowly since the Japanese star underwent his second major elbow surgery in the fall of 2023. The Dodgers never seriously entertained using him on the mound in 2024, and it was only on Sunday that he finally faced hitters in a live batting practice session.

The Early Returns, Such As They Are, Are Encouraging

Given how conservative the Dodgers have been with Ohtani's recovery, it is understandable that he didn't want to air it out on Sunday.

It is equally understandable, however, that he couldn't help himself. According to Sonja Chen of MLB.com, Ohtani sat around 94-95 mph and touched 97 mph with his fastball, even as he was truly trying to throw slower.

"I am aware that I do throw a little harder when there is a hitter in the box," Ohtani said through interpreter Will Ireton, as relayed by Chen. "I try to keep it 93-94, but I know I was touching '6 and '7s, which I wanted to not do. But it's a good sign that I could hit that."

The 30-year-old also mixed in some sweepers and splitters, and one of the latter was so good that it was (rightfully) singled out by the league:

Chen's article further noted that, assuming he's up to it, Ohtani is expected to face live hitters once per week. These sessions will have to serve as his rehab assignment, as the Dodgers presumably will not be sending their $700 million designated hitter to the minors for a potentially weeks-long pitching tune-up.

If all goes well, they stand to gain nothing less than one of the best pitchers in the world.

This is something we all knew between 2021 and 2023, but enough time has passed to warrant a few reminders. Among pitchers who made at least 60 starts across those three seasons, Ohtani's ranks included:

• 151 ERA+: 4th
• 1.051 WHIP: 9th
• 31.4 K%: 3rd
• .607 OPS: 3rd

The exact timeline for his return remains fluid, but the company line for the Dodgers is that he'll be back after the All-Star break. That is no longer far away, as only about six weeks separate now from the Midsummer Classic on July 15.

The Dodgers Pitching Staff Needs a Savior

If all was well right now, Ohtani's looming return would basically be the final hurdle between the Dodgers and the 117 wins we were all talking about in March.

Yet they are decidedly off-track in this regard, as a 23-10 start has given way to a 11-11 slump that has the club "only" on track to win 100 games. Their upside hypothetically still extends beyond that threshold, but only if their pitching staff becomes what it was cracked up to be.

To wit, J.J. Cooper of Baseball America proclaimed the Dodgers' staff as the "Deepest Pitching Staff Ever" after the club signed Rōki Sasaki in January. This was after they had already added two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell, and before they outfitted their bullpen with Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates and re-upped with Clayton Kershaw.

Alas, reality has mostly rendered the Boys in Blue black and blue.

Dodgers pitchers have already lost 866 days to the injured list, by far the most of any team in MLB. Both the bullpen and the rotation have been decimated, with the latter rendered especially short-handed by shoulder injuries to Snell, Sasaki and Tyler Glasnow. All three have "TBD" return timelines.

As a whole, the Dodgers have gotten 1.5 rWAR from their pitching staff. That is not even half of one Kris Bubic, who has about a quarter of the innings that the Dodgers have gotten from their starters. The exact number if 254.1, the fewest in the league.

In this context, that the Dodgers are 13 games over .500 feels like a small miracle. And who knows where they would be if not for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has a 1.97 ERA after 11 starts?

All the same, the Dodgers can legitimately hope for their pitchers to finish the year stronger than they've started it. Put Ohtani, Snell, Sasaki and Glasnow back alongside Yamamoto, and what they could have is a juggernaut moundstaff that could lead them all the way back to the World Series.

There Is a Lingering Question About Ohtani's Return to Pitching

Even in the face of the sheer promise of Ohtani's long-awaited return to the mound, it's worth pausing to ask: What could it mean for his offense?

What he's done as he's been able to focus solely on hitting since the start of 2024 is...well, "astounding" doesn't quite cut it. As if going off for MLB's first-ever 50-50 season wasn't enough, he's now threatening a 60-homer season in 2025.

His 20 homers are already five more than he had previously hit within his team's first 55 games. He is technically on pace for 59 homers, though his trendline is going up with 14 of his long balls coming just since April 29.

But will Ohtani sustain his power numbers once he goes back to double duty? The data from his 2021-23 run with the Los Angeles Angels says not to count on it:

• Games in Which He Didn't Pitch: 12.3 AB/HR
• Games in Which He Hit and Pitched: 19.9 AB/HR

Still, this is not to suggest the Dodgers should pull the plug on his recovery as a pitcher.

They're going to need an effective starter every sixth day more than they're going to need an extra home run or two, as Ohtani is but one contributor to a National League-leading 87 homers. And after the last two seasons, they know all too well there is no such thing as too much starting pitching come October.

For his part, having his arm back online can only help Ohtani atone for what was a fruitful, yet oddly disappointing introduction to the postseason in 2024. Yes, he and the Dodgers won it all. But he managed a meager .767 OPS and didn't have much to offer after dislocating his left shoulder in Game 2 of the World Series.

If you're the Dodgers, it's nice to know you don't need Ohtani's arm for the $700 million investment in him to pay off. His bat alone is worth that kind of money, particularly given he's technically only getting paid $2 million per year.

Yet even after all Ohtani has shown them, the Dodgers can and should move forward believing they haven't seen anything yet.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.