WNBA Power Rankings, Win-Loss Predictions for Every Team Ahead of the 2025 Season

At long last, the 2025 WNBA regular season is here.

Training camp is in the rear view. We've gotten to get a taste of each team in preseason play. Rosters have officially, and painfully, been cut down and finalized. This all means it's time for the final piece of our preview series: opening week(end) power rankings and win projections.

(If you've missed earlier content, you can check out the word-association piece here, and award predictions here.)

Shockingly, predicting season records isn't an easy thing to do. Factors include potential (or current) absences, potential youthful leaps or veteran regression, lineup combinations that may or may not work, on-court tweaks that could lead to more wins or an underwhelming performance.

On top of that, the wins literally have to add up; there are 286 wins (barring game cancellations) to dole out between these teams, so that took a little trial and error.

As for the power rankings, it's an update from the post-free agency ranking back in February. There hasn't been a ton of movement since then, but the Chicago Sky have notably climbed into the top eight after filling out their roster—they only had nine players at the time of the February article—and acquiring All-Star Ariel Atkins in the process.

For this edition, you'll get a bit of a preview: things I'm excited about, and things I'll be monitoring early in the season. Moving forward, these will be more streamlined (read: shorter) based on what happened during the week, similar to the Unrivaled format.

Let's dig in, shall we?

No. 13: Golden State Valkyries

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Previous Ranking: 13

2024 Record: "She doesn't even go here!"

2025 Prediction: 10-34 (.227)

Things I Like

• The roster construction and the background of head coach Natalie Nakase screamed, "We are going to bother you on defense" once the expansion draft ended. With a couple of preseason games in the books, I can officially say they won't be fun to deal with. The roster is collectively long, particularly 3-through-5, and active. They don't mind helping from anywhere; that could and did burn them, but it was fun to watch them lay out their terms defensively.
• To say that the Valkyries want to get threes up might be a massive understatement. 71 three-point attempts (35.5 average) in two games is wild, especially when you consider the Liberty led the WNBA in three-point attempts with [checks notes] 29.0. I don't think that's where they'll land in the regular season -- they do not have the shooting talent to justify that kind of volume -- but it's a positive to me that they're empowering players to expand their range.
• On a basic level, I've really enjoyed the investment level into the organization, and how quickly the fanbase has latched on. The team reached 10,000 season ticket sales back in March.The preseason home opener crowd was fantastic, and that was with the Golden State Warriors in the midst of playoff action.

Keep An Eye On...

• Half-court offense. I've dropped the "what happens when teams switch or go under" prompt for a few teams at the bottom, but that could really be a problem for the Valkyries in Year 1. That's ultimately okay, it's year one, but things could be rough if they don't play with the appropriate tempo.
• Lineup combinations. In a literal sense, I just want to see how Nakase opts to mix and match with this roster. Does she lean into smaller units? What are the smaller units? Will Veronica Burton and Tiffany Hayes be the defense-offense backcourt she rolls with, or do we eventually see Julie Vanloo take over a starting job?
• Janelle Salaün. Buddy, let me tell you: I am intrigued. That kind of size with that kind of shooting stroke should slot well into what the Valkyries want to do. And yes, for the NBA fans that may be reading this, this is the older sister of Hornets forward Tidjane Salaün.

No. 12: Washington Mystics

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Previous Ranking: 11 (-1)

2024 Record: 14-26 (.350)

2025 Prediction: 13-31 (.295)

Things I Like

• This team is going to be annoying. They play fast, flowing into early drag screens as a way to kickstart drive-and-kick sequences. They pressure the ball and fly around defensively. Overlook the Mystics on the schedule and you'll be calling a timeout earlier than you planned to.
• The rookie class intrigues me, of course. Kiki Iriafen runs end-to-end with the best of them, and I'm curious to see how effective her drives and post-ups will be in Year 1. Sonia Citron reads the floor pretty well already. A willing cutter and relocator off the ball, she should be able to capitalize or extend many of the advantages available to her. Quick hat tip to the Mystics for being intentional about setting up her on-ball touches with some sort of movement so she can get downhill a little easier. Also, if you're a fan of the mid-range, you should enjoy Lucy Olsen.
• I'm glad Emily Engstler has a home for her unique skill set. It shouldn't shock people if she logs minutes at the 3, 4, and 5 this year. She can operate as a screener or initiator. Her drives are still catching frontcourt players by surprise, somehow, and she can hold up reasonably well against multiple player types.

Keep An Eye On...

• Guard play. Brittney Sykes will get to run more the offense, which makes sense considering her downhill juice and (late) playmaking ability. Jade Melbourne has put some interesting PnR flashes on film across the last two seasons; I'm curious to see what more consistent usage looks like for her. There isn't a natural tablesetter available on the roster right now, though; the Georgia Amoore injury sucks.
• Frontcourt rotation. There's a lot of talent up front, ideally headlined by Shakira Austin and Aaliyah Edwards. Unfortunately, neither played this preseason and their early regular season availability is in question. Stefanie Dolson is a tremendous shooter, screener, and underrated passing hub; if the Mystics decide to get longer looks at recent draftees, what does her playing time look like? Will contenders come calling? They probably should. Between those three and the aforementioned Iriafen and Engstler, there are a lot of players that warrant playing time.
• Half-court offense. The roster has players that can win individual matchups, but I don't currently see a bonafide #1 option. I'm a little worried about what they look like against teams that switch or mix in early ball pressure; the preseason returns were a lot of shot clock violations and unfortunate live-ball turnovers.

No. 11: Connecticut Sun

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Previous Ranking: 12 (+1)

2024 Record: 28-12 (.700)

2025 Prediction: 13-31 (.295)

Things I Like

• I'm a pretty big fan of Olivia Nelson-Ododa. A versatile defender, quality screener and passer, and an active participant on the glass. The work and minute load is slated to shoot up this year, and I think she's ready for more.
• The rookie duo of Saniya Rivers and Aneesah Morrow intrigue me. Rivers' athleticism and defensive upside is tantalizing; Morrow is an interior monster that may have more perimeter upside than anticipated. New head coach Rachid Meziane will have to get creative with both to maximize them in half-court settings, but I think he's up for the challenge.
• Are we ready for the Jacy Sheldon green light? We may have to get ready for the Jacy Sheldon green light. In all seriousness, I'm excited to watch her spread her wings in this environment.

Keep An Eye On...

• Marina Mabrey. After the roster exodus, it didn't take long for the Mabrey trade request to come in. Naturally, it's worth monitoring if those rumblings pick back up closer to the trade deadline. As for the on-court product, Mabrey's going to be the bonafide top (perimeter) option for the first time in her WNBA career. How she navigates the increased attention -- the Liberty sprinked in two-on-the-ball against her in their preseason matchup, for example -- is also worth monitoring.
• Development plan. While the younger players will ultimately decide how "successful" this season is, I appreciate the fact that Connecticut has veteran guard rails in place to take some of the pressure off the youngins. Lindsay Allen as a steady-ish hand in the guard room makes sense to me; Tina Charles, Professional Bucket Getter, has already been in Nelson-Ododa's ear about her scoring aggression. This is how you build an infrastructure for your youth.
• Robyn Parks shot-making. This is an admittedly niche one, but it's really cool that she was able to land on a roster. She should serve as a nice change-of-pace wing that provides some late-clock scoring when things bog down offensively.

No. 10: Dallas Wings

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Previous Ranking: 9 (-1)

2024 Record: 9-31 (.225)

2025 Prediction: 18-26 (.409)

Things I Like

• The Paige Bueckers-Arike Ogunbowale backcourt will rightfully garner top billing for the Wings. Their skill sets complement each other well; Bueckers should unlock more off-ball usage for Ogunbowale, while Ogunbowale's scoring juice and gravity should allow Bueckers to attack more tilted defenses.
• DiJonai Carrington, last year's Most Improved Player, is one of the best defenders on the planet. She should help a Wings group that was almost historically-bad on that end last season. She should also benefit from playing off of Bueckers and Ogunbowale; here's hoping the drives continue to ding defenses.
• Maddy Siegrist looked like a strong candidate for the Most Improved Player award last season before having it cut short due to injury. A strong showing during Athletes Unlimited has once again raised by brow; she's an absolute bucket with underrated chops defensively.

Keep An Eye On...

• The acclimation process. Roster overhaul plus coaching overhaul usually leads to a pretty big adjustment period. The Wings flew around defensively during the preseason, but you could tell they were still trying to nail the particulars of their help and rotation principles. You could see an uptick in pace and movement offensively, but the turnovers were abundant. There's a lot to like on this roster, but It's going to take some time for them to settle in.
• Paige in the paint. Bueckers recently spoke about embracing the physicality of the league, an understandable adjustment period for rookies. She noted that she's naturally inclined to pull up for jumpers (she is an elite mid-range shooter) versus taking the extra dribble or two and forcing the issue. I'm curious to see what her inside-the-arc process will look like as the season goes on.
• Frontcourt rotation. New head coach Chris Koclanes has a lot of options at his disposal. The aforementioned Siegrist and Teaira McCowan are holdovers from last season, while NaLyssa Smith and Myisha Hines-Allen are newcomers that could log major minutes based on their versatility. I'm not sure how big or small Koclanes will want to play up front, but I'm excited to find out.

No. 9: Los Angeles Sparks

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Previous Ranking: 8 (-1)

2024 Record: 8-32 (.200)

2025 Prediction: 20-24 (.455)

Things I Like

• I don't know if I'd say they're the best driving team in the league, but they might be the most entertaining one. Kelsey Plum is a slithery paint threat. Dearica Hamby is a relentless driver. Azurá Stevens is an incredibly skilled driver for her size, as is Rickea Jackson. Odyssey Sims still lives in the paint. Rae Burrell flies in transition, and got to the free throw line at an abnormally-high rate because of it; her 21% shooting foul drawn rate was easily the top mark in the league among players to log at least 500 minutes (Alyssa Thomas was second at 17.4%).
• The Plum-Hamby connection getting a second act is fun. There will naturally be a lot of eyes on Plum as she navigates her first season as the unquestioned top ball-handler; that's where having someone like Hamby who can free up Plum with her screens, slips, or passing (watch the pass-and-cut sequences between these two) will be helpful.
• Back to Jackson: she seems primed for a big Year 2. The scoring versatility should speak for itself at this point; she found real comfort self-creating inside the arc, and carried that over into Unrivaled play. If the three-ball takes a step, I'm not sure what defenders are supposed to do with her.

Keep An Eye On...

• Guards against pressure. It felt like the Sparks fell apart whenever they faced teams that hedged or blitzed ball screens last season. Statistically, they kinda did: they were 9th in points per possession (0.77) and first in turnover rate (24.2% on direct picks) against those coverages per Second Spectrum. Plum quietly made strides against that aggression last season (1.03 PPP, 8.7% turnover rate), but I'm curious to see how that holds up if or when that volume increases.
• The defense. The backcourt projects to be pesky at the point of attack, but the guard room does trend kinda small. There won't be an elite rim protector available until Cam Brink returns, though Mercedes Russell remains a sound interior defender, and I'm a pretty big fan of the mobility that both Stevens or rookie Sania Feagin could provide. Burrell flashed pretty brightly in her minutes last season, but her workload is about to look different. To this point, she has logged 18 career games with at least 20 minutes played. I'd like to see how well she scales up.
• Hamby's jumper. A big part of the early All-WNBA and eventual All-Star push for Hamby was her shooting 40.4% from deep before the All-Star/Olympic break, though it came on low volume (2.4 attempts). After the break, Hamby only converted 22.6% of her 1.9 threes. I do wonder if the volume takes another step up, and ultimately where she lands as a shooter.

No. 8: Chicago Sky

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Previous Ranking: 10 (+2)

2024 Record: 13-27 (.325)

2025 Prediction: 20-24 (.455)

Things I Like

• Angel Reese is flat-out better than she was last season. The rebounding prowess remains, but her defense has seemingly leveled up. The handle feels tighter, and we've gotten more glimpses of that and her playmaking chops with new head coach Tyler Marsh giving her more freedom. This should be another All-Star campaign at minimum.
• The acquisition of Ariel Atkins, plus the returns of Courtney Vandersloot and Elizabeth Williams (season-ending injury) should improve the team quite a bit. Atkins is a multi-time All-Star and All-Defense mainstay that adds much needed shooting. Vandersloot has already made life for Reese, and especially Kamilla Cardoso (also looks better), much easier with her court vision and playmaking. Williams felt like a shoo-in for an All-Defense selection last season before her campaign was cut short; having her as a third big is an incredible luxury for the Sky.
• Tyler Marsh has already put his fingerprints on the team's style on both ends. The defense is more active, with Cardoso in particular playing closer to the level of screens than she did last year. Offensively, the team feels more organized from a spacing standpoint. Reese and Cardoso aren't traditional floor spacers, but because of where they're spaced -- and the timing of when they get there -- teams weren't able to shrink the floor as easily as they could last season.

Keep An Eye On...

• The shooting. The Sky certainly made an effort to improve it: Atkins, Kia Nurse, and Rebecca Allen can all knock down open shots. Rachel Banham is back, and can certainly hit threes at a high clip. I'm more curious to see if that group will take enough threes to truly bend defenses; if teams don't think you'll take a bunch, and within rhythm, they may still feel comfortable helping off of you even if your percentages say they shouldn't.
• Self-creation. The roster has upgraded, but there still isn't a bonafide I-demand-two-defenders scoring option. And tied to the shooting question, I do wonder what the offense will look like if defenses settle in on switching and ducking under screens.
• Offensive rebounding. If Reese is going to be utilized more on the perimeter, or if we'll see more of Cardoso in the short corner area opposite of ball screens involving Reese, I wonder what the downstream effects of that will be. The Sky grabbed 34.1% of their own misses last season, second only to the Dallas Wings (34.6%); those extra possessions helped keep them in games. If the spacing tweaks lead to more efficient offense, or better transition defense, I'm sure they'll be fine with a dip in offensive rebounding.

No. 7: Atlanta Dream

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Previous Ranking: 7

2024 Record: 15-25 (.375)

2025 Prediction: 23-21 (.523)

Things I Like

• The spacing tweaks jumped off the screen during preseason play. There were a lot more possessions with a 5-out alignment. More importantly, there was weakside movement -- players swapping positions and screening for one another -- while an action was happening on the other side, opening up more room for said-action to be successful. It'll have to sustain against good defenses, but the early returns were strong.
• The talent and versatility of the Rhyne Howard-Allisha Gray-Bri Jones-Brittney Griner quartet is easy to be excited about, especially within this spacing context.
• Te-Hina Paopao might've been my favorite rookie to watch during the preseason. Her drives were incredibly encouraging; they should serve as a nice complement to her shooting (went 4-of-11 from three across two games). With Jordin Canada slated to miss the start of the regular season, there's real opportunity for Paopao to establish herself as a rotation piece -- or more.

Keep An Eye On...

• The defense. The Dream seemed to have nuanced rules for their bigs during preseason play. Griner was mostly in a deep drop (that could occasionally turn into a switch), while Jones played closer to the level of screens, temporarily putting two on the ball. Those are coverages that make sense conceptually, but could be dinged. In general, how the double-big setup looks against up-tempo teams will be something I track early: Atlanta's first four games are against the Mystics, Fever (x2) and Wings.
• Rhyne Howard's efficiency. On any given night, Howard can look like an MVP candidate. Players her size aren't supposed to move, handle, shoot, playmake, or defend like that. The issue is that she hasn't been able to consistently put all of those things together. To the offense specifically, Howard hasn't hit neutral efficiency yet; she's been at least 2.5 percentage points below league average True Shooting in every season. The roster context, and the play-calling in light of that roster context, frankly hasn't been kind to her. In this spaced-up system with more talent around her, we should learn how much of that context held her back -- or if there are some legitimate process things that should be cleaned up.
• Closing lineups. It's a continuation of the defense point, but I do wonder how often we see someone like Nia Coffey (really underrated defender) closes games alongside Griner or Jones. There's room to go even smaller depending on the matchup: two guards (two of Canada, Paopao, Shatori Walker-Kimbrough) plus Gray, Howard and Coffey could be a fun small-ball unit in a pinch.

No. 6: Phoenix Mercury

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Previous Ranking: 5 (-1)

2024 Record: 19-21 (.475)

2025 Prediction: 25-19 (.568)

Things I Like

• It's hard not to be excited about the star trio of Alyssa Thomas, Kahleah Copper, and Satou Sabally. Per my player rankings, you're looking at two top-10 players and a third in Sabally who's played at a top-10 level as recently as 2023. There's a ton of versatility between the three, which should open up the playbook quite a bit.
• The defensive frontcourt of Thomas and Natasha Mack, someone I mentioned as a Most Improved Player candidate, should give teams fits. Thomas is still a DPOY-level roamer in her own right, while Mack is a chaos agent that's comfortable sliding on the perimeter in addition to providing strong rim protection.
• Sabally's three-point comfort has popped for well over a year now. She shot 36% from three during her All-WNBA campaign in 2023, then increased her efficiency and volume last season (45.2% on 5.6 attempts). For what it's worth, Sabally shot over 38% from three during Unrivaled play. It's becoming more apparent that the shot is real; her willingness to pull up when teams duck under screens is a key indicator on that front.

Keep An Eye On...

• The shot profile. I'm not sure if you've heard, but apparently the Mercury have BANNED mid-range jumpers. Any shot that isn't a three or at the rim is punishable by fines up to $10K per middy. That is a complete fabrication, but boy is that what the outrage felt like. On a serious note, how they balance their three-point volume and interior exploits will be interesting to track. Sabally and Copper can be moved around the chessboard, and Thomas doesn't mind bullying smaller defenders.
• The guard room. While I'm confident Sami Whitcomb's shooting will bounce back, the Mercury need it to bounce back. Her spacing and screening could be valuable complementary skills to the Big Three. Beyond Whitcomb, this guard group is relatively inexperienced (through the WNBA context, anyway) with stark strengths and weaknesses. The mixing and matching with lineup combinations will be key early.
• Thomas at the 5. We'll see plenty of Thomas and Mack together. I'm sure we'll get a healthy dose of Thomas playing alongside Kalani Brown whenever the Mercury decide to size up. I do wonder how often we'll see Thomas as the unquestioned 5, likely flanked by Copper, Sabally, and two other guards.

No. 5: Seattle Storm

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Previous Ranking: 6 (+1)

2024 Record: 25-15 (.625)

2025 Prediction: 25-19 (.568)

Things I Like

• For the second season in a row, the Storm is my pick to have the league's best defense. Skylar Diggins and Gabby Williams should cause problems for opposing backcourts; Alysha Clark can still defend either forward position. Nneka Ogwumike and Ezi Magbegor rival the Stewart-Jones pairing as the best defensive 4-5 duo in the league. They're active, aggressive, and not very fun to play against.
• I'm a sucker for inverted offense; using guards as screeners for bigger players is an easy and effective way to throw a defense of its natural cadence. The Storm experimented with this last season with Ogwumike and Magbegor handling the ball last season; I would imagine that usage ramps up this season.
• I have no idea what the minute loads for second overall pick Dominique Malonga or Li Yueru will look like, but what a luxury it is to have that kind of skilled size available to use off the bench. Malonga should be a terror on both ends thanks to her length and athleticism; Yueru was a menace at the rim and on the glass during preseason play.

Keep An Eye On...

• The shooting. If the Storm underperform this season, this will likely be the reason why. They were the league's worst three-point shooting team last season (28.8%), though they got uncharacteristic down years from both Jewell Loyd (27.4) and Sami Whitcomb (29.2). They'll likely bounce back in Vegas and Phoenix respectively. Clark and Lexie Brown (welcome back!) in particular will be needed to provide shooting gravity to open up the floor for drives and post-ups.
• Ogwumike's shot volume. One of the few players to shoot well from deep last season for the Storm, Ogwumike drilled 40.5% of her triples ... but only attempted two per game. She'll need to ramp up the scoring volume anyway with Loyd no longer there, but it's worth tracking how many of those attempts come from deep.
• The starting lineup. Diggins, Ogwumike, and Magbegor feel like the only true locks heading into the season. My best guess is that the Storm roll with Williams at the 2 and Clark at the 3 to round it out, but they do have options. We saw Diggins and Erica Wheeler start together in the opening preseason game, likely in an effort to get more ball and rim pressure on the floor. Brown could provide some much needed (movement) shooting alongside Diggins, which would slot either Williams or Clark as a super sub.

No. 4: Indiana Fever

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Previous Ranking: 4

2024 Record: 20-20 (.500)

2025 Prediction: 27-17 (.614)

Things I Like

• Another year of the Caitlin Clark-Kelsey Mitchell-Aliyah Boston trio excites me. Clark's already one of the best players in the league. Mitchell can (and will) score from virtually everywhere. Boston made big strides as a short-roll threat and passer last season, and that's in addition to what she already provides on the interior on both ends.
• This team plays fast and is more than willing to move the ball. At its peak, it's a beautiful brand of basketball that puts an incredible amount of strain on defenses.
• With the additions of DeWanna Bonner, Natasha Howard and Sophie Cunningham, the Fever have quite a bit of lineup versatility. They should be able to size up or down with ease, depending on their opponent.

Keep An Eye On...

• Post-ups. The Fever were a middle-of-the-pack last season, in terms of volume and per-possession efficiency. I would imagine the team looks and plays even more in Clark's image, but the addition of Howard and Bonner in particular could open up quick-hitting opportunities within the flow of the offense. If I had to guess, we see a lower number of post touches, but they move into the top four of points per possession on them.
• The defense. New head coach Stephanie White had the Fever sprinkle in some full court pressure and a little more switching during preseason play, which intrigues me. On a broad note, the Fever have to be much better than 11th in defensive rating to make the leap from "fun playoff team" to "legitimate contender."
• The closing lineup. I have a sneaking suspicion that 1) it'll change pretty often and 2) Clark and Mitchell are the only true locks. Any combination of Lexie Hull, Cunningham, Bonner, Howard and Boston could fill the final three spots.

No. 3: Las Vegas Aces

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Previous Ranking: 3

2024 Record: 27-13 (.675)

2025 Prediction: 29-15 (.659)

Things I Like

• A'ja Wilson is the best player in the world. The only thing more difficult than neutralizing her impact is trying to beat out bots and resellers for her shoes.
• Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young seem healthier, happier, and more aggressive in contrasting ways. Gray was in playoff mode during the Unrivaled season, knocking down an absurd amount of (contested) pull-ups en route to a championship. What's popped for Young, at least during preseason play, is how willing she's been to attempt tight window passes. Are we about to witness her level up as a playmaker?
• Is it cheating to list "team messaging" as an option? Becky Hammon, Wilson, Gray, Young, and Kiah Stokes have all talked about the heightened level of focus and intensity the team has entered camp with. They're clearly dissatisfied with how last season's quest for a three-peat ended.

Keep An Eye On...

• The Aces' defense. They slid from 1st in 2023 to 5th in defensive rating last season, a mark the team clearly wasn't happy with. Healthier versions of Gray and Young should help. Stokes being further removed from injury recovery (just like Gray) should lead to a bounceback year on that front. And all of that should make life a little easier on Wilson.
• Jewell Loyd. The multi-time All-Star and champion was brought in to replace the scoring of Kelsey Plum (more on her in the Sparks section). She mostly operated off the ball during preseason play, and her defense was pretty sturdy. The Aces will surely take the latter, but Loyd's effectiveness offensively will be a major storyline to follow.
• The second unit. It's what I'd call a high-variance group, particularly in the backcourt. I trust that Dana Evans and Tiffany Mitchell will defend, but I'm not quite sure where the shot-making (and in Mitchell's case, the shot-taking when spaced) will land. I worry less about rookie Aaliyah Nye's shooting, and more about if she'll provide enough defensively for Hammon to feel comfortable playing her consistent minutes.

No. 2: Minnesota Lynx

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Previous Ranking: 2

2024 Record: 30-10 (.750)

2025 Prediction: 30-14 (.682)

Things I Like

• I mean, who isn't a fan of Napheesa Collier at this point? She followed up an MVP-caliber (and DPOY-winning) season with an incredible postseason. Then, she followed that up with an MVP run during the inaugural season of Unrivaled. WNBA GMs named Collier the likely MVP winner this season, the best defensive player in the league, and the league's most versatile player. You're welcome to disagree with any or all of that, but it's at least a testament to how good Collier has become.
• This team can swing the rock, buddy. They're fresh off setting the WNBA record for assist rate (the percentage of made shots that came via assist), and I don't expect a major dip on that front. They're stocked with willing and decisive passers that can take advantage of tilted defenses.
• Speaking of, I'm a huge Jessica Shepard fan. She's a tremendous screener, a creative passer in her own right, and a bit of a bully whenever she decides to drive or post up. The Lynx are going to need her versatility in light of Dorka Juhasz's absence this season.

Keep An Eye On...

• The Math Game. The Lynx were a historically good shooting team (38% from 3 on 25.0 attempts) and elite defensively (2nd in defensive rating) despite ranking 11th (out of 12 teams) in defensive rebound percentage. If there's any regression from beyond the arc, or a lack of improvement on the defensive glass, their margin for error may be smaller than anticipated.
• Kayla McBride. She has played a lot of basketball in the past calendar year -- a full WNBA season + deep playoff run, Unrivaled play, and overseas play. Her three-point shooting (40.7% on career-high 6.6 attempts last year) and defensive prowess will be needed if the Lynx hope to make another deep playoff run.
• Diamond Miller, who's probably my Lynx X-Factor. On the high end, she could provide the kind of self-creation -- specifically rim pressure -- that would complement the Lynx's ball movement. That skillset and size could open up some interesting lineup combinations. If she isn't able to carve out a consistent role, I wouldn't be surprised if her name started circulating in trade rumors.

No. 1: New York Liberty

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Previous Ranking: 1

2024 Record: 32-8 (.800)

2025 Prediction: 33-11 (.750)

Things I Like

• The Sabrina Ionescu-Leonie Fiebich-Breanna Stewart-Jonquel Jones quartet is back and should dominate again. Last year, including the playoffs, the Liberty outscored opponents by nearly 14 points per 100 possessions with those four on the floor.
• The addition of Natasha Cloud is a great one. She's one of the best defenders in the league but also happens to be a strong driver and playmaker. Unlocking more off-ball usage for Ionescu feels like a good bit of business.
• Marine Johannes is back and ready to dazzle crowds with her absurd blend of playmaking and pull-up-off-one-foot shooting.

Keep An Eye On...

• The spacing. New York experimented with more 5-out concepts during the preseason to mostly positive results. How the Liberty balance the post touches for Jones, and the potential downstream effects of punting on the offensive glass (10 offensive boards in two preseason games) will be interesting to track.
• Minute maintenance. Considering the Liberty just won a title and the regular season is extending to 44 games, I do wonder what the minute load is going to look like for Stewart and Jones in particular. It wouldn't surprise me to see them in the 28- to 30-minute-per-game range.
• Stewart's three-point shot. I will just quickly note that over the past two years, postseason included, Stewart has only made 31.6 percent of her non-heave threes. This obviously excludes the Unrivaled sample where she went 8-of-43 (18.6%) from beyond the arc. I, uh, would like for that to course-correct at some point.