Are New York Knicks In Panic Mode Despite 2-1 Lead Over Boston Celtics?
After a pair of epic collapses in Games 1 and 2 at the TD Garden, the Boston Celtics annihilated the New York Knicks in Game 3, 115-93, at Madison Square Garden.
The contest wasn't even as close as the final score suggested. Early in the third quarter on Saturday, the Celtics' lead ballooned all the way to 30 points.
And despite being down 2-1 in the series, they've led in each of the three games in this series by at least 20 points.
Even before their third meeting, Boston was still favored to eventually win the series against New York, and now those odds have shifted heavily to the Celtics.
Why are they still the favorites? How seriously should we take those odds? Should the Knicks be panicking in the face of them?
Insight into all of that and more can be found below.
Luck Played a Role in Games 1 and 2
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The Knicks deserve the bulk of the credit for pulling off their pair of 20-point comebacks in Boston, but the Celtics were far from blameless.
Jayson Tatum needed to be better, overall. Derrick White and Jrue Holiday could've been better perimeter defenders, especially late in games. And the entire team could've been a bit more willing to attack the basket when the threes weren't falling.
But it's tough to hammer them too hard on that last one, since they were generally taking open looks.
On shots classified by the league as open (meaning the nearest defender was 4-to-6 feet away) or wide open (nearest defender was six-plus feet away) Boston was 24-of-96 from deep. That's just 25 percent.
During the regular season, on the same kind of triples, the Celtics shot 38.0 percent.
Missing that many good looks, for a team that relies so heavily on threes and presumably overcame the nerves related to the second round when it won the title last year, almost certainly had something to do with luck.
And it ran out, at least for one day, in Game 3. Boston was 20-of-40 from deep on Saturday. There was no let-up after the Celtics reached a 20-point lead. Instead, they stretched it to 30.
The entire game felt more like a typical Boston game than either of the prior collapses. And if it's found it's typical rhythm for the rest of the series, New York could be in trouble.
Kristaps Porziņģis Probably Can't Get Any Worse
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Celtics big man Kristaps Porziņģis is still reportedly dealing with lingering effects from a virus that first hit him back in March.
And those effects on his production have been pretty obvious. Through the first three games of this series, KP is averaging 15.2 minutes, 4.3 points on 4.0 shots, 2.7 fouls and 1.0 blocks.
That Boston has been able to build up three sizable leads in three different games essentially playing without him should be a little nerve-wracking for the Knicks.
He almost certainly can't produce any less than he has to this point. And if Porziņģis has even a marginal game by his pre-illness standards, New York's already thin margins for error may disappear entirely.
Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns Have Been Largely Contained
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It seems a little odd to push this take after the comebacks in which Brunson was so instrumental, but over the balance of the entire series, he's struggled with his shot. And he's not alone.
Brunson is averaging 24.3 points, but he's only shooting 38.1 percent from the field. The Knicks have lost his minutes on the floor. Karl-Anthony Towns, meanwhile, is averaging 18.7 points on 42.6 percent shooting. He's 1-of-7 from deep.
And those numbers don't feel like the result of three mere off nights. Boston, even without a fully functional Porziņģis, has a roster tailor-made to bother just about any star (or type of star).
Jaylen Brown famously held Luka Dončić well below his typical level in the 2024 Finals. White and Holiday can similarly frustrate Brunson. Both are bigger than the Knicks star. And they're heady defenders, too.
A lot of the tricks Brunson is able to leverage against other, less experienced defenders, like the stop in front of the defender or the lurching jumper, aren't as effective against this backcourt.
For KAT, there's Al Horford, Tatum and Brown. Horford, even at almost 39 years old, can stay in front of the Knicks big man. Brown and Tatum are strong enough to at least make him work in the post, too.
In short, the Celtics can at least hold New York's stars relatively in check, and that could be enough to secure three more wins.
Boston's Deeper
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Right now, the Knicks are essentially playing seven: Brunson, Towns, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, Miles McBride and Mitchell Robinson.
And those two New York reserves simply don't bring the same upside that Boston's bench does.
MicBride is averaging 7.0 points and 0.7 assists, while Robinson is chipping in 5.0 points and shooting 30.4 percent from the free-throw line.
The Celtics have Porziņģis (still due for a breakout), Luke Kornet (an always steady defender and rebounder) and Payton Pritchard (the single biggest reserve wildcard in this series).
Saturday, Pritchard had 23 points. For the series, he's shooting 41.7 percent from deep. He's the one Celtic whose shot didn't seem a little off prior to Game 3.
And New York doesn't really have an answer for his ability to swing quarters or even entire games from the bench.
Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown Will Be Better
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Three games into this conference semifinal, Tatum is averaging 19.3 points on 20.7 shots per game. Brown is at 20.7 points on 20.3 shots. The two stars are shooting a combined 28.8 percent from three.
Even with a wrist injury from the first round that's potentially still bothering Tatum and a knee injury that could be affecting Brown, it's hard to imagine them staying at this level for the rest of the series.
And whenever one or both break out, New York will be in a lot of trouble.
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