How Far Can Golden State Warriors Realistically Go Without Stephen Curry?

Thirteen minutes into his second-round series against the Minnesota Timberwolves, Golden State Warriors star Stephen Curry pulled up with a hamstring injury.

He managed to play a couple more possessions and even scored on one, but he was clearly laboring, left the game before halftime and never returned. His Warriors held on for a 99-88 victory, but there was obvious concern about the rest of the series.

And after Wednesday's news, the worry is unlikely to subside any time soon.

Yes, the report could've been worse. As far as hamstrings go, a Grade 1 strain is preferable to a Grade 2 or 3, but it sounds like the Warriors are expecting at least a one-week absence. And based on the history of this injury, he could miss the rest of the second round.

For a Golden State fan, it's probably natural to react with some level of despair. For the bulk of his career, including this post-prime stretch, the Warriors have been significantly better when Curry is available.

Since the start of 2020-21 (including the playoffs), Golden State is plus-5.3 points per 100 possessions with the four-time NBA champion on the floor and minus-1.1 when he's off.

His playmaking, gravity on and off the ball and greatest-of-all-time-level shooting result in far more than just his individual points. They open up space for his teammates, get them easier looks all over the floor and generally bend defenses in a way no one else across history has.

As Jimmy Butler said in his TNT postgame interview on Tuesday: "Steph is our best player, and the game is much easier when we've got him."

But Butler, who's almost been overly deferential to Curry in public comments since arriving in Golden State, changes the outlook a bit.

He's obviously a different kind of playmaker (more force of will than finesse), but he can carry a lot of that responsibility left behind by his injured teammate. He's also still capable of being a go-to scorer. Again, just in a different way.

Curry is a high-powered magnet, pulling defenders along with him all over the outside. Butler is more a screwdriver, forcing opponents toward the paint. He'll be on the ball more in Curry's absence and will create plenty of open three-point looks for Buddy Hield, Brandin Podziemski, Moses Moody and other shooters.

Perhaps most importantly, Butler is still a plus defender, and the Warriors shouldn't really lose anything on that end of the floor.

He, Gui Santos, Jonathan Kuminga, Moody, Podziemski, Gary Payton II, Kevon Looney and Draymond Green all ranked in the 75th percentile or higher in defensive estimated plus-minus (one of the most trusted catch-all metrics in NBA front offices) this season.

And a defensive unit populated by all of the above seems particularly well-tailored to defend Anthony Edwards and the Timberwolves. Golden State still has lots of length and switchability to throw at that problem. And Green, who ranked in the 98th percentile in defensive estimated plus-minus, is the perfect free safety to back them up.

Though it won't be easy, defense is the reason the Warriors can survive this series without Curry. It's the primary reason they more than survived without him in the regular season.

After the trade deadline, they were plus-5.0 points per 100 possessions when the 11-time All-Star was off the floor. Golden State allowed a paltry 102.8 points per 100 possessions in those situations. League average this season was 114.5.

However, regular-season numbers obviously don't guarantee playoff outcomes. And there's a reason Minnesota is now a heavy favorite to win the series, despite losing Game 1 at home.

Not having your best player in a sport in which your team only has five on the floor is a massive disadvantage.

But if the remaining Warriors can turn the upcoming games into defensive slugfests, they have a chance. They proved on Tuesday they can beat the Timberwolves.

That may buy them enough time to get the 37-year-old back for a potential conference finals, but if he remains out against the Denver Nuggets or Oklahoma City Thunder, it's hard to imagine Golden State getting any further.

Both of those potential opponents just have too much firepower for the Curry-less Warriors to overcome.