Overreactions to Early 2025 NBA Playoffs Round 2 Comebacks, Steph Curry Injury, More
The second round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs are off to a raucous start.
The Indiana Pacers are up 2-0 on the East's first-place Cleveland Cavaliers. They, the Denver Nuggets and the New York Knicks have all beaten the higher-seeded teams with remarkable comebacks.
And though the seventh-place Golden State Warriors kept the trend alive by beating the sixth-place Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday, there's reason for mild panic out of the bay.
Legendary guard Stephen Curry pulled up with a hamstring injury in the first half of Game 1 and was ruled out after just 13 minutes of game time.
Before we get too far into any of these series or even get an official timeline on Curry's injury, we have plenty of fodder for overreactions from the first couple days of this round.
The Celtics Shoot Too Many Threes
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The Boston Celtics broke a pair of records in their Game 1 loss to the Knicks, at least one of which was ignominious. Attempting 60 threes probably isn't the key to the old heads' hearts, but the number isn't totally absurd in today's era.
It's the fact that they missed 45 of those attempts that's the real problem.
And although three-point shooting—or more specifically, three-point volume—has been a critical component of the reigning champs' success over the last two years, they have to be willing and able to adjust when an individual game calls for it.
At a certain point, when long shots aren't falling and your opponent is "protecting the rim" with Karl-Anthony Towns, stars like Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have to start forcing the issue inside (though Brown's lingering knee injury may be a reasonable excuse for him).
This isn't to say Boston needs to abandon its philosophy altogether. That'd be ridiculous. The Celtics made (a lot) more threes than any team ever has in a regular season, and they finished with 2024-25's third-best offense. Those two things are obviously connected.
Pinning the result entirely on one team isn't fair either. The Knicks deserve credit for making the plays they needed to to get the win.
The playoffs—or in this case, New York—can force you to adapt. In Game 1, Boston didn't.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Is Not the MVP
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Bear in mind that the headline to this slideshow contains the word "overreaction."
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is going to be named 2024-25 NBA MVP. He was the league's leading scorer. He played for the team that had the most wins. He also had this season's highest estimated plus-minus (one of the most trusted catch-all metrics in NBA front offices).
He's a worthy winner of the award, but he also happens to be playing in the middle of what may be the single-best half-decade statistical run of all time.
And the author of that peak, Nikola Jokić, may have just had his best individual season, averaging a triple-double and topping SGA in both scoring efficiency and net rating swing (the difference between a team's net points per 100 possessions when a given player is on or off the floor).
In Monday's Game 1, when Jokić had 42 points, 22 rebounds and six assists, while registering a plus-10 plus-minus in a two-point win, it was tough to fathom any voters declaring anyone else the league's most "valuable" player.
Of course, this series is far from over. And SGA, who had 33 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists of his own on Monday, could certainly outduel Jokić as early as Game 2. During the playoffs (especially this year's), we see plenty of dramatic swings.
But right now, it sure looks like the Nuggets' center is more "valuable" than anyone, even if he won't get the award that signifies that.
The Cavaliers Are Done
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What makes this one an "overreaction" is the fact that the Cleveland Cavaliers went 30-11 on the road this season. And they went 64-18, overall, for a reason.
They have one of the most explosive individual offensive players in the league in Donovan Mitchell. And if he has a monster outing in Game 3, they could regain some of the momentum they forfeited during this 0-2 start.
But, well, Mitchell just had 48 points in Tuesday's loss. And though Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and De'Andre Hunter could all be back for the first game in Indiana, they're not likely to be 100 percent.
And none of them feel like guaranteed answers for Tyrese Haliburton, who's dicing up Cleveland's defense as easily as he did the Milwaukee Bucks' and confidently hitting massive shots.
Beyond that, the Cavs are just facing a numbers problem. They'd have to win four out of the next five games to advance. And over the course of NBA history, less than 10 percent of teams that have fallen into 0-2 holes have won their series.
The Warriors Can Survive (For a Bit) Without Stephen Curry
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Losing Curry in the first half of Game 1 sounds about like the worst possible scenario for the Golden State Warriors.
He's arguably the greatest offensive player in NBA history. And though he's out of his prime, he's still, by far, the most explosive scorer on this roster.
Even during this post-prime stretch of his career, over the last five years, Golden State is plus-5.5 points per 100 possessions with Curry on the floor and minus-0.4 when he's off.
Conventional wisdom would suggest that if Curry is out for a bit with this hamstring injury, the Warriors are pretty much done.
But much of that number above is the product of what happened prior to the Jimmy Butler trade. After he joined the team, Golden State comfortably outscored its opponents when Curry was off the floor.
The Warriors now have a go-to scorer and playmaker beyond their legendary face of the franchise. And perhaps even more importantly, they still have all the most important players and components of a championship-caliber defense.
Golden State allowed the fewest points per 100 possessions in the league after the trade deadline. It gave up just 88 in Tuesday's win over the Minnesota Timberwolves.
If the Warriors continue to emphasize defense, get a couple more hot shooting nights from Buddy Hield (who followed up his 33 points in the Game 7 win over the Houston Rockets with 24 against Minnesota) and have Playoff Jimmy, they can survive a short absence from Curry.
