Ranking MLB's 25 Biggest Prospect Busts of the Last 10 Years
Evaluating prospects has come a long way from the days of scouts basing everything on the eye test and gut feeling, but it's still far from an exact science, and some highly regarded prospects still inevitably wind up being busts.
Whether it's injuries derailing their development, one glaring flaw in their game proving to be too much to overcome or something else entirely, prospects can go from future stars to disappointing busts in just a few short years.
Ahead, we've highlighted the 25 biggest prospect busts of the last 10 years, focusing on players who were still considered top prospects at some point during that window of time before eventually seeing their stock crater.
Included is a quick snapshot of when each player was at the peak of their hype, along with a breakdown of how their career progressed from top-tier prospect to bust.
Nos. 25-21
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25. OF Brennen Davis
Peak hype: No. 1 Cubs prospect in 2022
Billed as a future five-tool star in center field, Davis reached his prospect peak in 2021 when he posted an .869 OPS with 25 doubles, 19 home runs and 53 RBI in 100 games while reaching Triple-A in his age-21 season. He represented hope for the future while the Cubs dismantled their World Series roster, but he stumbled in the upper levels of the minors and never reached the majors before he was released last November.
24. OF Corey Ray
Peak hype: No. 5 overall pick in 2016 draft
Ray hit .310/.388/.545 with 16 doubles, 15 home runs, 60 RBI and 44 steals in 64 games during his junior season at Louisville, and he was the second college player off the board in the 2016 draft behind Nick Senzel. He went on to hit .235/.306/.416 with a 30 percent strikeout rate over six seasons in the minors, and he went 0-for-2 with a walk and a run scored in his only MLB game for the Brewers on April 24, 2021.
23. OF Yusniel Diaz
Peak hype: Prospect centerpiece in Manny Machado trade
In the days before international bonus pool restrictions, Diaz was signed for $15.5 million by the Dodgers after defecting from Cuba. He posted a .348/.448/.440 line over 65 games as a rookie in the Cuban National Series prior to defecting, and he looked like a future center fielder and impact leadoff hitter. He was traded to the Orioles as the headliner in a five-player package to acquire Manny Machado at the 2018 trade deadline, but he played just one game at the MLB level during his time in Baltimore.
22. LHP Asa Lacy
Peak hype: No. 4 overall pick in 2020 draft
With a strong 6'4" frame and four quality pitches, Lacy was widely regarded as the top pitcher in the 2020 draft. He logged a 2.13 ERA with 130 strikeouts in 88.2 innings as a sophomore at Texas A&M, and he allowed just nine hits and two earned runs with a 46-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 24 innings before the 2020 season was halted. Since starting his pro career with the Royals, he has a 7.09 ERA and 83 walks in 80 innings, and he has not pitched since 2022 while navigating a back issue and Tommy John surgery.
21. OF Elijah Green
Peak hype: No. 5 overall pick in 2022 draft
Green was frequently mentioned alongside Druw Jones as the top talents in the 2022 draft class, though some swing-and-miss concerns caused him to slide to No. 6 overall where the Nationals gave him a $6.5 million signing bonus. Still only 21 years old, he has time to figure things out, but a staggering 43.4 percent strikeout rate and 427 strikeouts in 227 career games is difficult to spin in a positive light.
Nos. 20-16
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20. RHP Francis Martes
Peak hype: No. 2 MLB pitching prospect in 2017
Martes trailed only Alex Reyes among pitchers on the 2017 Baseball America Top 100 prospect list, checking in at No. 15 overall after logging a 3.30 ERA and 131 strikeouts in 125.1 innings as a 20-year-old in Double-A. He made his MLB debut in 2017 with a 5.80 ERA in 54.1 innings, though he did flash quality stuff with 69 strikeouts. However, his career went off the rails when he was slapped with an 80-game PED suspension in 2019 and a 162-game PED suspension in 2020.
19. RHP Riley Pint
Peak hype: No. 4 overall pick in 2016 draft
With a fastball that touched 102 mph and a hammer curveball coming from a solidly built 6'5", 225-pound frame, Pint checked all the boxes to be a future ace for the Rockies. However, inconsistent mechanics and spotty command also made him a project with significant bust potential. He ended up posting a 5.30 ERA and 1.70 WHIP with 262 walks in 311 innings over eight minor league seasons.
18. RHP Tyler Kolek
Peak hype: No. 2 overall pick in 2014 draft
A high school right-hander has never gone No. 1 overall in the MLB draft, and Kolek is one of many cautionary tales that give teams pause when considering that demographic. A burly 6'5", 260-pound flame-thrower from the Texas high school ranks, he walked 61 batters in 108.2 innings during his first full professional season, and his command further deteriorated in the years that followed. He hung up his spikes after the 2019 season having never advanced above Single-A, recording a 5.66 ERA and 1.73 WHIP with 124 walks in 163.2 career innings.
17. IF Kevin Maitan
Peak hype: No. 1 prospect in 2016 international class
Maitan drew comparisons to Miguel Cabrera and Chipper Jones while being hailed as a potential "once-in-a-generation type talent" after signing with the Braves for $4.25 million in 2016. However, he was declared a free agent a year later as a result of international rules violations by the Braves. The Angels scooped him up for $2.2 million, but things simply never clicked in pro ball. Now a member of the Twins organization, the 25-year-old is a .235/.302/.353 hitter over 2,156 plate appearances in the minors.
16. LHP Jay Groome
Peak hype: No. 1 prospect in 2016 draft per MLB.com
Groome was billed as the best prep left-hander since Clayton Kershaw during his senior season at Barnegat High School in New Jersey, though bonus demands and some off-the-field question marks caused him to slip to No. 12 overall where the Red Sox gave him a $3.65 million bonus. He has a 5.54 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 447 career innings in the minors and has yet to make his MLB debut. The 26-year-old is currently serving a one-year suspension for violating the league's gambling policy.
Nos. 15-11
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15. RHP Nate Pearson
Peak hype: No. 7 MLB prospect in 2020
Pearson went No. 28 overall in the 2017 draft and quickly established himself as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball with an overpowering repertoire. He posted a 2.30 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 119 strikeouts in 101.2 innings while reaching Triple-A in 2019, and only MacKenzie Gore earned a higher ranking among pitching prospects entering the 2020 season. Command issues and injuries kept him from developing into a frontline starter, and he is now a reliever in the Cubs organization.
14. C Blake Swihart
Peak hype: No. 1 catching prospect in 2015
Prep catchers always come with considerable bust potential, but it looked like the Red Sox had found a future star when Swihart hit .293/.342/.469 with 26 doubles, 13 home runs and 64 RBI in 110 games between Double-A and Triple-A just three years removed from the New Mexico high school ranks. He made his MLB debut in 2015 and showed upside, but he hit just .217/.287/.325 for a 63 OPS+ in 387 plate appearances over the next four years, playing his final MLB game in 2019.
13. RHP Anderson Espinoza
Peak hype: No. 7 MLB pitching prospect as teenager in 2016
Espinoza drew comparisons to a young Pedro Martínez while posting a 1.23 ERA with 65 strikeouts in 58.1 innings and reaching Single-A as a 17-year-old in 2015. The Red Sox flipped him to the Padres at the 2016 trade deadline in exchange for Drew Pomeranz, but he then missed the entire 2017, 2018 and 2019 seasons recovering from a pair of Tommy John surgeries before losing another year to the pandemic in 2020, ultimately spending nearly five years on the sidelines. Still only 27 years old, he is currently pitching for the Orix Buffaloes in the Japanese League, and he was one of the team's best starters in 2024.
12. 2B Keston Hiura
Peak hype: 70-hit, 60-power prospect profile in 2019 per MLB.com
Hiura looked like a rising star when he hit .303/.368/.570 for a 138 OPS+ with 23 doubles, 19 home runs and 49 RBI in 84 games with the Brewers in 2019, delivering on his prospect pedigree and showcasing the top-of-the-scale hit tool that made him the No. 9 overall pick in 2017. However, he struck out an NL-leading 85 times in 59 games during the shortened 2020 season and never returned to the form he showed as a rookie. In 736 plate appearances since the start of 2020, he has a .203/.287/.384 line and a 38.5 percent strikeout rate. The 28-year-old is currently playing for the Rockies' Triple-A affiliate.
11. RHP Alex Reyes
Peak hype: Top 25 MLB prospect in 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019
A 2.3-WAR player as a rookie in 2016 and an All-Star in 2021, Reyes has enjoyed more MLB success than most players on this list. However, that does not mean he didn't also fall miles short of expectations. He simply could not stay healthy long enough to establish himself in the Cardinals rotation, and while a move to the bullpen led to his All-Star selection when he saved 29 games in 2021, that was also the last time he appeared in the big leagues before shoulder issues effectively ended his career.
Nos. 10-6
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10. OF Mickey Moniak
Peak hype: No. 1 overall pick in 2016 draft
The 2016 MLB draft will go down as one of the worst in history, and six different players from that year's first round appear on this list. Moniak was the No. 1 overall pick as a toolsy yet polished future center fielder out of the California high school ranks. The 26-year-old has not been a complete flop, but his 84 OPS+ and 0.5 WAR over 305 big league games makes it difficult to view him as anything but a bust relative to his draft position. He is currently the starting right fielder on a truly awful Rockies team.
9. C Henry Davis
Peak hype: No. 1 overall pick in 2021 draft
It's telling that Jack Leiter (No. 2), Jackson Jobe (No. 3), Marcelo Mayer (No. 4) and Jordan Lawlar (No. 6) all received larger signing bonuses than Davis did as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 draft. The Pirates cut a deal with the Louisville backstop that allowed them to go over-slot to sign Anthony Solometo and Bubba Chandler in the second and third round, but Davis appears to be a bust. He hit .370/.483/.663 with 15 home runs during his junior season on campus, but he has yet to carve out a regular role in the big leagues, batting .187/.277/.301 for a 59 OPS+ in 410 plate appearances.
8. RHP Mark Appel
Peak hype: No. 1 overall pick in 2013 draft
Originally selected No. 8 overall in the 2012 draft by the Pirates, Appel opted to return to Stanford for his senior season and the Astros made him the No. 1 overall pick the following year. He battled injuries and general ineffectiveness before stepping away from the sport prior to the 2018 season. He returned in 2021 after a three-year layoff and eventually pitched his way to the majors in 2022, posting a 1.74 ERA in six appearances out of the Phillies bullpen before officially retiring.
7. OF Lewis Brinson
Peak hype: Prospect centerpiece in Jonathan Lucroy and Christian Yelich trades
Brinson had a high enough ceiling that he was traded twice as the prospect centerpiece in blockbuster deals. A first-round pick by the Rangers in 2012, he was traded to the Brewers at the 2016 deadline as part of a package to acquire All-Star catcher Jonathan Lucroy. A year and a half later, he was on the move again, this time going to the Marlins along with three other prospects in the deal that sent Christian Yelich to Milwaukee. He went on to hit .198/.246/.328 in 1,150 MLB plate appearances before playing in Japan in 2023 and Mexico in 2024.
6. RHP Forrest Whitley
Peak hype: No. 1 MLB pitching prospect in 2019
Whitley reached Double-A before his 20th birthday during a breakout 2017 season in which he posted a 2.83 ERA with 143 strikeouts in 92.1 innings. However, he was suspended 50 games in 2018 for violating MLB's drug policy and limited to eight starts in 2019 while battling shoulder issues. On the other side of the cancelled 2020 MiLB season, he underwent Tommy John surgery and missed the entire 2021 season before struggling in his return to action in 2022. The 27-year-old finally made his MLB debut last year, and he tossed two scoreless innings in his 2025 debut but promptly landed on the IL with a knee sprain.
5. OF Cristian Pache
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Peak hype: No. 7 MLB prospect in 2021
Cristian Pache was supposed to be baseball's next great defensive center fielder, with enough offensive game to be a franchise cornerstone for the Atlanta Braves for the next decade.
His stock reached its peak following the 2019 season when he hit .277/.340/.462 with 36 doubles, 12 home runs and 61 RBI in 130 games between Double-A and Triple-A, and he ended up on the Braves playoff roster in 2020.
Expected to take the starting center field job and run with it in 2021, he instead went 4-for-30 with 13 strikeouts through his first 11 games before being sent back to Triple-A where he would spend the majority of the season.
The 26-year-old was traded to the Athletics that offseason as part of the four-player package to acquire Matt Olson, and he is now on his fifth team since leaving Atlanta after joining the D-backs during the offseason.
All told, Pache is a .181/.243/.275 hitter over 610 plate appearances in the majors, good for a 46 OPS+ and minus-1.3 WAR in 251 games.
4. LHP/1B Brendan McKay
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Peak hype: No. 4 pick in 2017 draft as two-way player
A few months before the Los Angeles Angels signed Shohei Ohtani, there was another two-way player who looked like a potential future star who could impact the game in a variety of ways who was taken No. 4 overall in the 2017 draft.
Brendan McKay won Golden Spikes honors during his final season at Louisville, hitting .341/.457/.659 with 18 home runs and 57 RBI as the team's starting first baseman while also serving as the ace of the pitching staff and finishing 11-3 with a 2.56 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 146 strikeouts in 109 innings.
The Rays gave him a chance to play both ways early on in the minors, and in 2018, he had a .727 OPS over 242 plate appearances and a 2.41 ERA with 103 strikeouts in 78.1 innings on the mound.
McKay eventually turned his focus primarily to pitching, posting a 5.14 ERA with 56 strikeouts in 49 innings over 11 starts and two relief appearances as a rookie in 2019, but that ended up being his only big league action.
Shoulder surgery in 2020, thoracic outlet surgery in 2021 and Tommy John surgery in 2022 planted him firmly on the sidelines, and while he returned last year with a 1.50 ERA in 18 innings at Triple-A, arm issues again knocked him out of action. The 29-year-old is currently a free agent.
3. IF Nick Senzel
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Peak hype: Top 10 MLB prospect in 2017, 2018 and 2019
Nick Senzel looked like a sure-fire future big league star going all the way back to his days at the University of Tennessee where he hit .354/.456/.598 with 34 extra-base hits, 25 steals and more walks (40) than strikeouts (21) his junior year before going No. 2 overall in the 2016 draft.
A terrific first full season in the minors in 2017 did little to temper expectations, with a .321/.391/.514 line that included 40 doubles, 14 home runs, 65 RBI and 14 steals in 119 games between High-A and Double-A.
A torn ligament in his right index finger limited him to 44 games in 2018, but he still made his MLB debut the following year, hitting .256/.315/.427 with 20 doubles, 12 home runs and 42 RBI in 104 games while flashing plenty of potential.
Unfortunately, that proved to be his peak at the MLB level.
In the five years that followed, Senzel hit .224/.293/.341 for a 72 OPS+ over 1,219 plate appearances, and he started the 2025 season in the Mexican League before signing a minor league deal with the Dodgers and joining their Double-A affiliate.
2. RHP Sixto Sanchez
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Peak hype: No. 1 MLB pitching prospect in 2021
Danny Knobler wrote a featured article for Bleacher Report in 2019 titled: "Sixto Sanchez: 19-Year-Old Pedro Martinez Clone Already Has 102 MPH Heat."
That same year, Sanchez was traded to the Marlins as the prospect centerpiece in the deal that sent J.T. Realmuto to the Phillies, and he went on to post a 2.76 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 103 strikeouts in 114 innings between High-A and Double-A during his first season in the Miami organization.
The following year, he made his MLB debut with a 3.46 ERA over seven starts to help the Marlins reach the postseason, and he tossed five scoreless innings against the Cubs in Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series that October.
That was enough to make him baseball's top pitching prospect entering the 2021 season, as he still carried prospect status, and all signs pointed to him being the future ace of the staff in Miami and one of baseball's best young starters.
Instead, he missed the entire 2021 and 2022 seasons recovering from a pair of shoulder surgeries, then pitched just one inning total in 2023, essentially amounting to three lost years of development.
He entered spring training out of minor league options in 2024 and ended up on the Opening Day roster as a result, but after struggling to a 6.06 ERA in 35.2 innings he was placed on the injured list with shoulder inflammation in June and never returned to action.
Sanchez was removed from the 40-man roster in November and rejected a minor league assignment, opting instead for free agency. The 26-year-old signed with the Rieleros de Aguascalientes of the Mexican League in February.
1. OF Bubba Starling
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Peak hype: Signed record-setting $7.5 million bonus as No. 5 pick in 2011 draft
Outfielder Bubba Starling was essentially the Joe Mauer of his draft class: A highly touted baseball and football recruit who was committed to play both sports at the University of Nebraska.
The Royals lured him away from that commitment with a massive $7.5 million signing bonus that was the second-largest in draft history at the time and the most money ever given to a high school prospect.
A true five-tool prospect when he began his pro career, it quickly became clear his hit tool was far less polished than hoped, and mediocre seasons at Single-A in 2013 and High-A in 2014 took some of the luster off his prospect star.
After several years scuffling in the upper levels of the minors, he finally seemed to turn a corner at Triple-A in 2019 when he hit .310/.358/.448 with 20 extra-base hits in 72 games, and he was rewarded with his first MLB call-up in July.
In 91 total games between the 2019 and 2020 seasons, he hit .204/.246/.298 for a 44 OPS+ with a 31.8 percent strikeout rate and minus-1.8 WAR.
Starling returned to Triple-A for the 2021 season and earned a spot on Team USA at the Olympics that summer where he helped win a silver medal as the team's starting center fielder. That October, he retired from baseball.
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