Every NBA Team's Toughest Upcoming Financial Decision
Every action or non-action comes with risk in the NBA. Teams are typically built over the summer through the draft, free agency and trades.
While a Luka Dončić blockbuster can change trajectories in-season, most heavy lifting will come this summer.
In a league with a salary cap, luxury taxes and aprons, it's nearly impossible to separate basketball from financial matters. Each team must make several choices to shape its short- and long-term roster puzzles.
Here, we've highlighted the toughest upcoming financial decision that every team must confront before the 2025-26 regular season tips off.
Guidelines
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The NBA's new national TV deals kick in this July. As a result, the salary cap is projected to jump to $154.6 million, the maximum 10 percent that it's allowed to increase year-over-year. The rest of the numbers, including on each team's slide, are estimates based on that cap figure.
The NBA has a soft cap. Nearly every team typically exceeds it by the end of the season. However, some will stop below the luxury-tax threshold ($187.9 million), as those below the tax receive a share of the penalty from those above (about $11.6 million this year).
Others will voluntarily stop before crossing the first apron ($195.9 million) or second apron ($207.8 million) due to the restrictions placed upon teams that cross those lines. Top contenders (and the Phoenix Suns) are usually the only ones that will cross the second apron.
Teams under the salary cap can do almost whatever they want with that space (trades, signings, etc.), after which they gain the room mid-level exception (RMLE) at $8.8 million. Teams that go over the cap and stay under the first apron (regardless of tax status) have the non-taxpayer mid-level exception (NTMLE) at $14.1 million and bi-annual exception (BAE) at $5.1 million. The BAE can only be used every other year.
Teams above the first apron but below the second have the taxpayer mid-level exception (TMLE) at $5.7 million. Second-apron teams have no mid-level exception or BAE, so they can only sign players to minimum contracts outside of those they have rights to and their draft picks.
Finally, teams may have trade exceptions (TPE) from the 2024-25 regular season. Using a preexisting one will trigger a first-apron hard cap.
The following projections don't account for any trades that may come about or any players that might be waived with their salaries stretched over multiple seasons.
Atlanta Hawks: Paying Dyson Daniels
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2024-25 result: 40-42, play-in record 1-1
2025 draft: Nos. 13, 22
Starting payroll: $151.7 million (over the cap)
Exceptions: NTMLE, BAE, $25.2 million TPE (Dejounte Murray), $13.1 million TPE (Bogdan Bogdanović)
Minimum payroll: $147.2 million ($7.4 million in space)
Likely max: $187.9 million (under tax)
Will Atlanta stay committed to Trae Young? What about free agents Clint Capela and Caris LeVert? Does a healthy Jalen Johnson propel this team into playoff contention?
The Hawks recently parted ways with general manager Landry Fields and replaced him with Onsi Saleh. They're now looking for a top basketball executive who will likely decide the answers to those questions and more.
Atlanta's toughest decision will be finding the correct number for a long-term commitment to Dyson Daniels, who won the Most Improved Player award and came in second for Defensive Player of the Year this past season. Daniels, who is extension-eligible until the start of the 2025-26 regular season, will undoubtedly expect to be rewarded for his impact. He's only 22 and figures to be fairly expensive.
Projection: Daniels gets at least $94 million over four years.
Boston Celtics: Time to Avoid Massive Taxes?
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2024-25 result: 61-21, playoff record 6-5
2025 draft: Nos. 28, 32
Starting payroll: $230.6 million (over the second apron)
Exceptions: None
Minimum payroll: $232.2 million (over the second apron)
Initial repeater tax: $271.7 million
The future of the Celtics was already heading in this direction, but the loss of Jayson Tatum to an Achilles injury only reinforces the inevitable. Boston's payroll is out of control with higher repeater-tax rates kicking in this coming season.
A projected payroll (with tax) of almost $510 million is arguably too much with a healthy Tatum. Without him, the Celtics figure to start slashing costs this offseason.
Players like Kristaps Porziņģis ($30.7 million expiring) and Jrue Holiday ($104 million over three years) may be luxuries the team can no longer afford.
Projection: Decisions on free agents Al Horford and Luke Kornet are pending, but Boston will look for bargains and significant salary dumps.
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Brooklyn Nets: What to Spend On?
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2024-25 result: 26-56, lottery
2025 draft: Nos. 8, 19, 26, 27, 36
Starting payroll: $92.5 million ($62.1 million in space)
Exceptions: RMLE
Minimum payroll: $74.6 million ($80.0 million in space)
Likely max: $187.9 million (under tax)
No teams has cap space like the Nets this summer. They could go star-chasing or veer in the opposite direction, trading away veterans like Cam Johnson and Nicolas Claxton to bottom out further. The latter would involve using cap room to take on another team's unwanted salary in return for draft picks and young talent.
Cam Thomas ($12.2 million) and Day'Ron Sharpe ($12 million) have reasonable cap holds, while Ziaire Williams' cap hold ($18.4 million) is likely higher than he'll earn as a restricted free agent. The Nets can keep all three of them, allow them to walk and/or chase other teams' restricted free agents like Josh Giddey, Jonathan Kuminga or Quentin Grimes.
Projection: Brooklyn's path will define the summer for the rest of the NBA. Look for the Nets to explore trades with a focus on the 2026 draft. Pencil in Thomas returning at a lower number than he's hoping for.
Charlotte Hornets: Continue to Invest in Subpar Product?
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2024-25 result: 19-63, lottery
2025 draft: Nos. 4, 33, 34
Starting payroll: $161.2 million (over the cap)
Exceptions: NTMLE, BAE
Minimum payroll: $151.0 million ($3.6 million in space)
Likely max: $187.9 million (under tax)
The Hornets were among the worst teams in the NBA this past season, partly because they lost 2023 No. 2 overall pick Brandon Miller to a wrist injury early in the year.
Miller may be overtaking LaMelo Ball as Charlotte's cornerstone piece, but that's the heart of the decision ahead. Should the Hornets continue forward with the same core, add another high lottery pick and hope they're the next Detroit Pistons?
They may be leaning against that if the rescinded in-season trade of Mark Williams is any indication. The young center is extension-eligible, but his questionable durability is why Charlotte was willing to move him to the Los Angeles Lakers in February.
Projection: The Hornets quietly explore moving Ball and Williams. Regardless, an extension for Williams will likely wait.
Chicago Bulls: Giddey's Restricted Free Agency
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2024-25 result: 39-43, play-in record 0-1
2025 draft: Nos. 12, 45
Starting payroll: $140.7 million (over the cap)
Exceptions: NTMLE, BAE, $17.2 million TPE (Zach LaVine)
Minimum payroll: $133.5 million ($21.2 million in space)
Likely max: $187.9 million (under tax)
The Bulls were a fun team down the stretch with the backcourt of Coby White and Giddey meshing well together. Giddey improved upon his greatest weakness by shooting a career-high 37.8 percent from three-point range on increased volume (4.0 attempts per game).
At 6'8", Giddey can play multiple positions while filling up the box score (14.6 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 7.2 assists per game this past season). He'll turn 23 before next season and is now heading into restricted free agency.
Almost no team has spending power this summer outside of the Brooklyn Nets, who could issue a hefty offer sheet to Giddey. If so, the Bulls must decide how high they'd be willing to match.
Giddey likely expects a salary starting over $30 million, but the Bulls tend to be relatively spendthrift. If they don't reach a deal, he may have to take his $11.1 million qualifying offer, but no one wants that. Another possibility is a sign-and-trade, but the likely path is that Chicago and Giddey compromise on a livable number.
Projection: Without any trades, the Bulls should have enough to pay Giddey $30 million in his first season and use the NTMLE to finish about $3.5 million under the tax. They might also look to cash out of Nikola Vučević's contract instead of retaining him, but they need a starting center in his place.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Can They Afford Ty Jerome?
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2024-25 result: 64-18, playoff record 5-4
2025 draft: Nos. 49, 58
Starting payroll: $217.8 million (over the second apron)
Exceptions: None
Minimum payroll: $217.9 (over the second apron)
Initial tax: $126.1 million
Cleveland went all-in at the trade deadline, acquiring De'Andre Hunter's hefty contract from the Atlanta Hawks. The Cavaliers expected to contend and possibly win it all this year, but injuries put them at a disadvantage in the second round against the Indiana Pacers.
The answer this offseason isn't to panic, but to build upon one of the NBA's best rosters. The other side of the coin is one of the league's highest projected payrolls heading into 2025-26.
Since the Cavaliers are already above the second apron, they can only sign free agents to minimum contracts outside of their own players. Ty Jerome is the big question mark in that regard. How high is the budget for one of the Sixth Man of the Year finalists, particularly after his up-and-down playoff showing?
Projection: The Cavaliers go hard for another year, including keeping Jerome with a raise starting near $14 million.
Dallas Mavericks: Kyrie's Future
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2024-25 result: 39-43, play-in record 1-1
2025 draft: No. 1
Starting payroll: $209.0 million (over the second apron)
Exceptions: None
Minimum payroll: $157.2 million (over the cap)
Likely max: $207.8 million (under second apron)
Initial tax: $34.1 million
The Mavericks' great lottery fortune will shape their long-term future, but in the short term, they won't have a healthy Kyrie Irving until at least January. After tearing his ACL this past March, he may not be himself again until the 2026-27 campaign.
Irving could decline his $44.0 million player option to become an unrestricted free agent, but his injury and the lack of cap space around the league could dry up his market. He and Dallas could instead work out a three-year deal that gives him a large enough contract but a lower initial price for 2025-26.
The other issue is replacing his ball creation since Dallas won't have its lead guard for at least the first few months of the season.
Projection: Irving and the Mavericks come to terms on a new three-year deal (perhaps starting at $35 million) that increases their financial flexibility this summer. One (or both) of P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford will be traded.
Denver Nuggets: Jokić Needs Help
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2024-25 result: 50-32, playoff record 7-7
2025 draft: No picks
Starting payroll: $199.5 million (over the cap)
Exceptions: TMLE
Minimum payroll: $197.9 million (over first apron)
Likely max: $207.8 million (under second apron)
Initial tax: $13.5 million
Writing off the Nuggets heading into the playoffs seemed like an obvious call. They parted ways with head coach Mike Malone and general manager Calvin Booth late in the regular season.
The Los Angeles Clippers had them beat until Aaron Gordon stole their soul with a buzzer-beating dunk in Game 4. The Oklahoma City Thunder, who entered the playoffs with the best record in the NBA, lost home-court advantage after Gordon's game-winning three in Game 1. Had Gordon not suffered a hamstring injury in Game 6 against the Thunder, would Denver still be alive?
Now that its playoff run is over, Denver has limited means to improve. It needs to decide on an extension for Christian Braun, and its only real path to flexibility may be trading Michael Porter Jr.'s large contract.
Projection: Porter is dealt to a lower-tier team that's looking to add an experienced playoff veteran.
Detroit Pistons: Cap Space or Continuity?
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2024-25 result: 44-38, playoff record 2-4
2025 draft: No. 37
Starting payroll: $137.7 million ($16.9 million in cap space) or over the cap
Exceptions: RMLE or both NTMLE and BAE
Minimum payroll: $137.7 million ($16.9 million in space)
Likely max: $187.9 million (under tax)
The Pistons were one of the NBA's brightest stories this past season, rising from perennial bottom-feeders who were destined to get the No. 5 pick no matter the odds. The addition of quality veterans, health (outside of Jaden Ivey), and the emergence of Cade Cunningham led to an impressive first-round series against the New York Knicks.
Now, the Pistons need to decide on their path forward. Do they go as far below the cap as possible to chase the best player available in free agency? Or should they pay veterans like Dennis Schröder, Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr. while hoping to improve through continuity?
That answer likely shifted towards staying over the cap with Cunningham's All-NBA Third Team bonus pushing his extension into "supermax" territory at $46.4 million for 2025-26 instead of $38.7 million.
Projection: Continuity with minor improvements
Golden State Warriors: Is Kuminga Part of the Future?
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2024-25 result: 48-34, playoff record 5-7
2025 draft: No. 41
Starting payroll: $170.5 million (over the cap)
Exceptions: NTMLE, BAE, $8.8 million TPE (Kyle Anderson)
Minimum payroll: $181.5 million (over the cap)
Likely max: $207.8 million (under second apron)
The Warriors snuck past the Houston Rockets in the first round of the playoffs, but a Stephen Curry hamstring injury sunk them against the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Semifinals.
Regardless, the Warriors are being built around the trio of Curry, Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green for the next two years. Moses Moody is their only player who's under guaranteed contract in 2027-28, which suggests that's when Golden State will transition to whatever follows the Curry era.
If the Warriors are targeting the 2027 offseason for financial flexibility, will they invest heavily in Jonathan Kuminga, who never quite meshed with Butler given how head coach Steve Kerr likes to play? Golden State just got its payroll under control this past offseason. Does it dip right back into apron territories for Kuminga?
Projection: Kuminga may be the most likely sign-and-trade candidate in the NBA this summer.
Houston Rockets: Star Hunting
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2024-25 result: 52-30, playoff record 3-4
2025 draft: Nos. 10, 59
Starting payroll: $152.5 million (over the cap)
Exceptions: NTMLE
Minimum payroll: $141.1 million ($13.2 million in space)
Likely max: $195.9 million (under first apron)
The Rockets are a legitimate force in the Western Conference. Their first-round playoff loss to the more-experienced Golden State Warriors was hardly a setback. The experience that their young players gained will help them immeasurably.
But will the same roster return next year? Houston has plenty of picks and young players to offer for the next available star. That probably starts with Giannis Antetokounmpo, should he push the Milwaukee Bucks to trade him.
Projection: The Rockets keep Fred VanVleet on a multi-year deal at a lower rate. Houston may be fine heading into the season with the same team, but it figures to be open to a blockbuster deal at the trade deadline with its significant buying power.
Indiana Pacers: Is It Finally Time to Pay the Tax?
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2024-25 result: 50-32, up 2-1 in Eastern Conference Finals
2025 draft: Nos. 23, 54
Starting payroll: $168.2 million (over the cap)
Exceptions: NTMLE, BAE
Minimum payroll: $174.1 million (over the cap)
Likely max? $187.9 million (under tax)
The Pacers haven't paid the luxury tax since the 2005-06 season. They're the best example of a team that won't tank and won't overspend yet manages to stay competitive. Heading to its second straight conference finals, an NBA Finals berth or championship may test the team's fiscal resolve.
Myles Turner is set to become an unrestricted free agent this offseason, while Benedict Mathurin will be extension-eligible. Re-signing Turner could push the Pacers into the tax for the first time in two decades, but there's otherwise nothing stopping them from running back the same group next year.
Projection: Players like Obi Toppin and Mathurin could be moved to consolidate talent and provide space for Turner under the tax. However, winning at the highest level may motivate Indiana to pay the tax for the first time in 20 years.
Los Angeles Clippers: Reinvest in Harden?
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2024-25 result: 50-32, playoff record 3-4
2025 draft: Nos. 30, 51
Starting payroll: $175.6 million (over the cap with Harden)
Exceptions: NTMLE, BAE, $6.5 million TPE (P.J. Tucker)
Minimum payroll: $131.2 million ($23.4 million in space)
Likely max: $207.8 million (under second apron)
The Clippers had a surprisingly strong regular season. They survived the absence of Kawhi Leonard (knee) with James Harden carrying the load until Leonard was ready.
Heading into the playoffs, the Clippers were the healthiest they've been in years. However, Aaron Gordon's buzzer-beating dunk in Game 4 knocked the wind out of their sails, and they wound up losing to the Nuggets in the first round.
How long should the Clippers run it back with Leonard's health always in question? He's under contract through 2026-27, which probably impacts how long L.A. wants to pay Harden if he declines his $36.3 million player option to become a free agent.
The Clippers might want to prioritize cap space in 2026, in which case Harden may need to opt in and complete his contract.
Projection: Harden opts out to re-sign on a two-year deal, timing the expiration of his new contract with Leonard's so the Clippers have maximum flexibility in 2027 (though he'll fight for three years).
Los Angeles Lakers: Finding a Center
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2024-25 result: 50-32, playoff record 1-4
2025 draft: No. 55
Starting payroll: $191.6 million (over the tax with James, etc.)
Exceptions: TMLE
Minimum payroll: $123.3 million ($31.3 million in space)
Likely max: $207.8 million (under second apron)
Initial tax: $25.5 million
The Lakers don't have a tough decision with Luka Dončić. They'll offer him a four-year, $229 million maximum extension as soon as they're allowed to and hope he takes it. Landing a superstar is the hardest step in team-building, but the Lakers historically find a way to get that done.
Assuming LeBron James picks up his $52.6 million player option or re-signs on another two-year deal with a second-year player option, the Lakers must find a way to land a starting center this offseason. With the Mark Williams debacle behind them, they may try to swing a similar deal involving Dalton Knecht (perhaps along with future draft picks) for the best starting center they can get.
Projection: Look for the Lakers to try to get someone like Daniel Gafford from the Dallas Mavericks, who may be unlikely to trade with L.A. in the near future given the fallout from the Dončić deal.
Memphis Grizzlies: Paying Jaren Jackson Jr.
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2024-25 result: 48-34, playoff record 0-4
2025 draft: Nos. 48, 56
Starting payroll: $137.1 million ($17.5 million in space)
Exceptions: RMLE or both NTMLE and BAE, $7.7 million TPE (Marcus Smart), $6.1 million TPE (Ziaire Williams)
Minimum payroll: $137.1 million ($17.5 million in space)
Likely max: $187.9 million (under tax)
Memphis doesn't seem ready or willing to trade star point guard Ja Morant. Instead, the Grizzlies may go under the cap this summer to lock up their other top player, Jaren Jackson Jr. The goal would be to use that cap room to renegotiate his contract so that he can get a maximum extension.
The challenge will be keeping restricted free agent Santi Aldama, which may require them to move players like Brandon Clarke and/or John Konchar while using cap space to renegotiate Jackson.
Projection: The Grizzlies give Jackson a $13 million raise to extend him at $51 million starting in 2026-27.
Miami Heat: Extending Tyler Herro
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2024-25 result: 37-45, play-in record 2-0
2025 draft: No. 20
Starting payroll: $185.4 million (over the cap)
Exceptions: NTMLE, BAE, $16.1 million TPE (Jimmy Butler)
Minimum payroll: $164.6 million (over the cap)
Likely max: $195.9 million (under first apron)
The Heat know they need to make changes after getting swept in the first round of the playoffs, but that was obvious last year when they refused to give Jimmy Butler an extension. The Butler trade drama tanked much of the season, and Miami lost the magic that led to surprisingly long postseason runs with him in the fold. Still, Tyler Herro earned his first All-Star nod and is probably part of the solution.
If so, the Heat can and should sign him to a three-year extension that runs through the 2029-30 season. If he continues to play at a high level, they can build around him and Bam Adebayo, or his contract can be a trade asset.
Projection: Herro signs an extension that can start as high as $46.2 million in the first year.
Milwaukee Bucks: What Does Giannis Want?
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2024-25 result: 48-34, playoff record 1-4
2025 draft: No. 47
Starting payroll: $162.3 million (over the cap)
Exceptions: NTMLE, BAE, $7.2 million TPE (Khris Middleton)
Minimum payroll: $142.5 million ($12.1 million in space)
Likely max: $195.9 million (under first apron)
Damian Lillard's devastating Achilles injury figures to tank next season for the Bucks, who were already struggling to give Giannis Antetokounmpo enough support to win another title. Brook Lopez is set to become an unrestricted free agent this summer, and Bobby Portis could join him by declining his $13.4 million player option. Meanwhile, Gary Trent Jr. played well enough in the playoffs to earn more than Milwaukee can pay without using an exception.
At what point does Antetokounmpo decide it's time to move on? The entire NBA is waiting for that shoe to drop. It may come soon.
Projection: Antetokounmpo says it's time, and the Bucks get the best trade they can for the two-time MVP.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Can They Afford the Roster?
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2024-25 result: 49-33, down 1-3 in Western Conference Finals
2025 draft: Nos. 17, 31
Starting payroll: $181 million (over the cap)
Exceptions: TMLE
Minimum payroll: $148.1 million ($6.5 million in space)
Likely max: $207.8 million (under second apron)
Initial tax: $7.6 million
Facing one of the top payrolls in the NBA, Minnesota traded Karl-Anthony Towns contract to the New York Knicks right before training camp for Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo and the Detroit Pistons' 2025 first-round pick (No. 17). Both sides benefited from the deal, as evidenced by their respective conference finals berths, but Minnesota still faces significant financial pressure.
Randle, who has a $30.9 million player option, has been a force in the postseason. He could opt out for a new deal with Minnesota, but he might struggle to find a suitor in free agency given the dearth of cap room leaguewide. Instead, Randle could opt in and sign an extension or leave in free agency in 2026.
The Wolves must also pay Naz Reid, who will presumably decline his $15 million player option for a longer deal. They'll also hope to retain Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who will be an unrestricted free agent.
Projection: If the Timberwolves keep winning, the roster may quickly get increasingly expensive.
New Orleans Pelicans: Run It Back?
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2024-25 result: 21-61, lottery
2025 draft: No. 7
Starting payroll: $182.8 million (over the cap)
Exceptions: NTMLE, BAE, $13 million TPE (Brandon Ingram), $9.9 million TPE (Jonas Valančiūnas)
Minimum payroll: $138.5 million ($16.2 million in space)
Likely max: $187.9 million (under tax)
The Pelicans were terrible this season, but injuries played a significant part.
Dejounte Murray was lost early (hand) and late (Achilles). The latter injury should sideline him for at least half of next season. Zion Williamson struggled to stay on the court yet again. Rising star Trey Murphy III (shoulder) and Brandon Ingram (ankle) were also sidelined.
The Pelicans wound up sending Ingram to the Toronto Raptors before the trade deadline. It was a largely financially driven move, as New Orleans has historically found ways to finish seasons below the luxury tax.
The Pelicans hoped to land a top pick in the draft, but the lottery went in the opposite direction for them. Can they just run it back with the No. 7 pick supplementing their roster, or do they need to make bigger changes this offseason?
Projection: The Pelicans discuss Williamson trades, but they start the season with him on the roster. CJ McCollum may be on the move as a large expiring contract.
New York Knicks: Rewarding Bridges
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2024-25 result: 51-31, down 1-2 in Eastern Conference Finals
2025 draft: No. 50
Starting payroll: $199.8 million (over the first apron)
Exceptions: TMLE (potentially unusable)
Minimum payroll: $204.8 (under second apron)
Likely max: $207.8 million (under second apron)
Initial tax: $36 million
After his star turn with the Brooklyn Nets, Mikal Bridges needed time to adjust to being a role player again on the Knicks. He's become a vital cog for them on both sides of the ball in the playoffs, though.
New York is all-in with its core, and Bridges has just one year left in the deal. This offseason, the Knicks figure to do what they can to sign him to an extension.
Projection: Bridges gets a new deal starting at the most he can get ($34.9 million).
Oklahoma City Thunder: Roster Space
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2024-25 result: 68-14, up 3-1 in Western Conference Finals
2025 draft: Nos. 15, 24, 44
Starting payroll: $186.3 million (over the cap)
Exceptions: TMLE (not all usable), BAE
Minimum payroll: $181.1 million (over the cap)
Likely max: $187.9 million (under tax)
The young Thunder finished atop the Western Conference for the second straight regular season and survived a Game 7 against the Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference Semifinals. How far they go has yet to be decided, but the next step this summer is to reward Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren with huge extensions. If not, the Thunder may lose the chemistry that they've taken so long to build.
With that as a baseline assumption and not a "tough decision," Oklahoma City has roster-crunch issues with players under contract, two first-round picks, and a reasonably high second-rounder. Unless the Thunder part ways with Ajay Mitchell and Jaylin Williams (team options) or trade someone away, the answer may be to trade their 2025 first-rounders for future picks.
Projection: The Thunder trade some (or all) of their picks this summer for multiple future first-rounders.
Orlando Magic: Improve Without Spending?
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2024-25 result: 41-41, playoff record 1-4
2025 draft: Nos. 16, 25, 46, 57
Starting payroll: $206.8 million (over the first apron)
Exceptions: TMLE or both NTMLE (not all usable) and BAE
Minimum payroll: $183.9 million (over the cap)
Likely max: $187.9 million (under tax)
Initial tax: $41.3 million
With extensions starting for Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs along with another max expected for Paolo Banchero in July, the Magic aren't necessarily in a position to add much salary to an already ballooning payroll. Still, they have a few specific needs (namely shooting and playmaking).
Some of that may need to come via free agency or trade, but Orlando likely needs a subtraction for each addition. That could mean declining team options on Mo Wagner (knee) and Gary Harris, while veterans like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Cole Anthony may be on the trade block.
Projection: The Magic sacrifice a bit on defense to add shooting via trade (perhaps Anfernee Simons or similar).
Philadelphia 76ers: Can They Really Run It Back?
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2024-25 result: 24-58, lottery
2025 draft: Nos. 3, 35
Starting payroll: $188.5 million (over the cap)
Exceptions: TMLE
Minimum payroll: $179.1 million (over the cap)
Likely max: $207.8 million (under second apron)
Initial tax: Under $2.9 million
The Sixers were a disaster this season, as Joel Embiid, Paul George, Jared McCain and others struggled to stay healthy. Quentin Grimes broke out in their absence and is due a raise as a restricted free agent.
The Sixers can't pay Guerschon Yabusele much more than the minimum without using an exception. He may only be a flight risk if another team is offering more.
But can the Sixers reinvest in the same group and hope for better health next year?
Projection: The Sixers keep Grimes, Yabusele and most of the same team, with an eye on improving further at the trade deadline. The health issues with Embiid and George may not be solvable in the short term.
Phoenix Suns: What's Next for KD?
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2024-25 result: 36-46, lottery
2025 draft: Nos. 29, 52
Starting payroll: $223.8 million (over the second apron)
Exceptions: None
Minimum payroll: $212.5 million (over the second apron)
Initial tax: $205.2 million
The Suns continue to fire coaches annually. They've underachieved relative to their talent level, and Kevin Durant, who's turning 37 in September, is heading into the final year of his contract.
Phoenix's payroll level is too high to add via salary, and it has limited trade assets.
Many around the league expect Durant to be traded, most likely in the offseason. If not, he'll get moved by the trade deadline.
Projection: Durant is gone before opening night
Portland Trail Blazers: Decide on Backcourt
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2024-25 result: 36-46, lottery
2025 draft: No. 11
Starting payroll: $176.5 million (over the cap)
Exceptions: NTMLE, BAE, $6,9 million TPE (Malcolm Brogdon)
Minimum payroll: $160.9 million ($9.2 million in space)
Likely max: $187.9 million (under tax)
The Blazers turned a corner during the 2024-25 season, showing life with still-young players like Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara, Scoot Henderson and Donovan Clingan. Do Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe fit into that future as well?
The answers must come quickly, as both are heading into their final year of their respective contracts and are extension-eligible.
Would an additional investment in Simons limit Henderson's future in Portland? How hard should the Blazers push for playoff contention? Can they move veterans like Deandre Ayton and Jerami Grant to get off salary and add young talent?
Projection: Portland shops both Simons and Sharpe, but it won't force a bad deal. Keeping both remains on the table, even if for future deals.
Sacramento Kings: Keegan Murray's Extension
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2024-25 result: 40-42, play-in record 0-1
2025 draft: No. 42
Starting payroll: $166.5 million (over the cap)
Exceptions: NTMLE, BAE, $16.8 million TPE (Kevin Huerter), $5.9 million TPE (Chris Duarte)
Minimum payroll: $174.7 million (over the cap)
Likely max: $187.9 million (under tax)
The Kings parted ways with head coach Mike Brown and former general manager Monte McNair and replaced them with Doug Christie and Scott Perry, respectively. After making the playoffs in 2022-23, Sacramento hasn't returned since.
The Kings sent star point guard De'Aaron Fox to the San Antonio Spurs at the trade deadline. They have several scorers, but the roster doesn't defend well and seems directionless.
Adding scorers (DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine) has marginalized Keegan Murray's role in the offense. He's eligible for an extension this offseason, but he may also be the team's best trade bait. However, he's also necessary youth for Sacramento given the age of DeRozan (almost 36) and LaVine (30, but with a lengthy injury history).
Murray may expect more than the Kings are willing to pay, which could lead to him becoming a restricted free agent in 2026.
Projection: The Kings and Murray compromise on a $75 million contract over four years.
San Antonio Spurs: Also Star Chasing
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2024-25 result: 34-48, lottery
2025 draft: Nos. 2, 14, 38
Starting payroll: $160.6 million (over the cap)
Exceptions: NTMLE, BAE
Minimum payroll: $158.9 million (over the cap)
Likely max: $187.9 million (under tax)
The Spurs were chasing the play-in tournament until young star Victor Wembanyama got shut down in February with deep vein thrombosis. If Wembanyama is healthy next year, the Spurs have a dynamic pairing with him and De'Aaron Fox.
In the bigger picture, San Antonio can offer draft capital (including the No. 2 overall pick) and young players like Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Jeremy Sochan, etc., to pursue a third star. Perhaps they already have one in Stephon Castle.
Either way, the Spurs have enough other assets to chase another star without including the reigning Rookie of the Year.
Projection: The Spurs make a run at a player like Giannis Antetokounmpo. Will Antetokounmpo green-light the move or push for a larger-market team?
Toronto Raptors: Is RJ Barrett a Tax Casualty?
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2024-25 result: 30-52, lottery
2025 draft: Nos. 9, 39
Starting payroll: $188.1 million (over the tax)
Exceptions: TMLE
Minimum payroll: $187.9 (over the tax)
Likely max: $187.9 (over the tax)
Initial tax: Under $250,000
The Raptors expect to improve with better health and the addition of Brandon Ingram, who never played this past season after joining Toronto at the trade deadline because of a sprained ankle. Still, the payroll is too high for a team that isn't a top-tier contender.
Toronto may be a play-in team, but it has much to accomplish to get to a top-six seed. Trading RJ Barrett may be the obvious answer to getting out of tax range.
Projection: The Raptors deal Barrett, possibly to a team like the Washington Wizards.
Utah Jazz: Keep the Bigs or Rebuild Harder?
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2024-25 result: 17-65, lottery
2025 draft: Nos. 5, 21, 43, 53
Starting payroll: $165.1 million (over the cap)
Exceptions: NTMLE, BAE
Minimum payroll: $148.2 million ($6.5 million in space)
Likely max: $187.9 million (under tax)
The Jazz fell as far as possible from the No. 1 spot in the lottery. Instead of landing a potential franchise player like Cooper Flagg, they may face another year of dour basketball ahead. Their focus would be on developing young players, as they have done in recent years.
Given Lauri Markkanen's age (almost 28) and Walker Kessler's extension-eligibility, the Jazz need to decide on one or both of their bigs this offseason.
Projection: The Jazz shop Markkanen before the season. They wait on extending Kessler and decide whether to keep him in restricted free agency in 2026.
Washington Wizards: Exploit the Other 29
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2024-25 result: 17-65, lottery
2025 draft: Nos. 6, 18, 40
Starting payroll: $169.3 million (over the cap)
Exceptions: NTMLE, BAE, $9.9 million TPE (Jonas Valančiūnas), $5.3 million TPE (Johnny Davis)
Minimum payroll: $149.1 million ($5.5 million in space)
Likely max: $187.9 million (under tax)
The Wizards fared about as well as the Utah Jazz in the lottery, dropping from the No. 2 position to No. 6. They aren't close to contention, but they do have several veterans on movable contracts. Their assignment for the year is to take advantage of the other teams.
That might mean moving Khris Middleton, Marcus Smart and Richaun Holmes' expiring contracts or finding a team willing to pay to acquire Jordan Poole.
Projection: The Wizards make at least three offseason trades.
Email Eric Pincus at eric.pincus@gmail.com and follow him on X @EricPincus and Bluesky.
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