How the Next NBA Superstar Trade Could Go Through the Houston Rockets
The Houston Rockets should be greedy. The team's remarkable trajectory went from 22 wins in 2022-23 to 41 last year, followed by 51 and the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference.
The learning experience through the first-round series by the Jimmy Butler-fueled Golden State Warriors has been invaluable (regardless of outcome), but the franchise must continue to improve.
Fortunately, the Rockets have the ammunition to pursue the next superstar. With financial flexibility, draft considerations and potentially available prospects, few teams can offer as much as Houston.
The Rockets had hoped Donovan Mitchell would reject his extension offer from the Cleveland Cavaliers. While Jimmy Butler was tempting, his age (35) and durability were concerns.
But now that a player like Giannis Antetokounmpo could hit the trade market, Houston may be near or even at the front of that line.
Why Would a Superstar Pick Houston?
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Yes, a team decides whether or not to make a trade, but the league's top players usually significantly influence where they relocate.
The closer they get to the end of their contracts, the more power they have to scare off unwanted suitors. But the Rockets should be on most stars' short list of desired destinations.
While Texas has no state taxes, that's not enough in itself (the Miami Heat, for instance, have the same advantage). It's the opportunity to win, under head coach Ime Udoka and on a team already on the verge of being a postseason powerhouse.
The Rockets should have enough to offer for a star without moving Alperen Şengün, Amen Thompson, Tari Eason or Jalen Green. The franchise could choose to move on from Green, but that's not necessarily a requirement to acquire a franchise-level player.
Houston can also retain key veterans such as Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks and Steven Adams. Apron restrictions will drive some of those decisions, but the flexibility is there. The Rockets don't need to decimate the roster to add a star.
What Picks Can the Rockets Offer?
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Before considering the players Houston needs to send out, its draft compensation puts the franchise in contention. In most cases, when a team loses its star, it starts the cycle of rebuilding.
The Dallas Mavericks are an obvious exception, taking on an older veteran in Anthony Davis for Luka Dončić. But edge cases aside, Houston can load up on outgoing picks to get a blockbuster done.
A trade could be agreed to ahead of June's draft, but executed once the system (and its various hard caps) resets in July for the 2025-26 campaign.
Houston has the following movable draft picks:
- No. 9 in June (lottery TBD)
- No. 59 in June
- 2028, 2030, 2032 first-rounders
- 2027, 2029, 2031 first-round swap rights
- 2027 Phoenix Suns first-rounder
- 2029 Dallas Mavericks or Suns first-rounder
- 7-9 various future second-rounders
That's not to suggest the Rockets will give their entire draft table to get a star, but the franchise is in a strong position to make a deal.
What Players Need to Go Out?
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Suppose Houston is attempting to acquire a star earning the 2025-26 projected maximum for players with at least 10 years of experience (estimated at $54.1 million). In that case, it must send at least $43.1 million in outgoing salary. That would trigger a first-apron hard cap at a projected $195.9 million.
To avoid that restriction, the Rockets can send at least $54.1 million, which would lock in a higher second-apron hard cap at an expected $207.8 million. That's the more likely scenario, as it allows Houston to keep as much of its core together as possible—though it requires another $11 million in outgoing salary.
That could lead to the following players heading out in trade:
- Jabari Smith Jr. ($12.4 million)
- Reed Sheppard ($10.6 million)
- Jock Landale ($8 million)
- Aaron Holiday ($4.9 million)
- Cam Whitmore ($3.5 million)
- Nate Williams ($2.3 million)
That totals just $41.7 million, but the Rockets can also try to include free agents Jeff Green and Jae'Sean Tate via sign-and-trade. The trade partner taking them in would have a first-apron hard cap, which may require the participation of a third team.
Houston's more complex decisions include VanVleet (team option at $44.9 million), Green ($33.3 million) and Brooks ($22.1 million).
The most likely path for VanVleet is for the team to opt him out and bring him back on a multi-year deal at a lower rate. The 31-year-old would have a hard time getting more than the non-taxpayer mid-level exception (about $14.1 million) this offseason, given few teams have significant spending power. A compromise could be in the low $20 million range.
Brooks and Green are polarizing players, but the former fits the tough, veteran identity the Rockets continue to forge. Green's breakout game for 38 points led to Houston's first win in the series against the Warriors, but he's averaged 8.8 point through the other four.
At just 23, Green could appeal to several rebuilding teams looking for a young, exciting star. He carries a heavy but not outrageous salary that can expire with his player option before the 2027-28 season.
Building a superstar trade around Green simplifies a potential deal for the Rockets. The combination of Green, Sheppard, Landale and Holiday is enough to bring back $56.8 million in returning salary. Houston can add others like Smith, Whitmore and Williams as needed, but the heavy lifting would be done by Green's outgoing salary.
Who Are the Targets?
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The Rockets can't act unilaterally, but their trade assets won't be around forever. For those teams eager to cash in, now may be the time.
The most desirable target is likely Antetokounmpo, whose Milwaukee Bucks were just knocked out of the playoffs by the Indiana Pacers.
With limited financial flexibility and Damian Lillard presumably out for 2025-26 with a torn Achilles, the Bucks seem to be heading towards a dead end.
Milwaukee may disagree, and it may take Antetokounmpo pushing the envelope. If he does, will he pick Houston or push against it for a hand-picked destination?
Kevin Durant is the most likely star to relocate, given how poorly the Phoenix Suns have performed the last few years. Houston's challenge is his age of 36. Should the Rockets go all-in on a player who may not have that many elite-level years left in his career? Can he give them two to three years of top-end contention?
Instead, Houston may prefer Suns shooting guard Devin Booker.
So far, there are no apparent signs Phoenix will move on, but the Rockets can offer a lucrative alternative to the Suns, other than just running back the same product that continues to underperform.
A dream target for many franchises is Nikola Jokić, with the hope that the Denver Nuggets are unable to sustain championship-caliber play and, with recent firings (coach Mike Malone, general manager Calvin Booth), perhaps Jokić turns down an extension and looks to move on.
That may be a fairy tale, but the Rockets should at least test the waters on it before rushing to a lesser deal (like if Trae Young or LaMelo Ball became available, questionable fits in Houston's defense-first approach). In the meantime, the immediate offseason focus will likely shift to Antetokounmpo and Durant.
Email Eric Pincus at eric.pincus@gmail.com and follow him @EricPincus on X and Bluesky.
