NFL Draft 2025's Riskiest Mid-1st-round Picks in Latest Expert Mocks

With less than two weeks until the 2025 NFL draft, we may finally have some clarity about what will happen at the top of Round 1.

The Tennessee Titans appear quite likely to take Miami quarterback Cam Ward at No. 1, while Colorado WR/CB Travis Hunter and Penn State edge-rusher Abdul Carter look like "can't-miss" prospects who will fly off the board next.

Of course, not every first-round prospect will be an instant star, and there are usually a few in each draft who flat-out disappoint in the pros. This year, opinions about which prospects are most likely to succeed—aside from Hunter and Carter—appear to vary greatly.

"This first round is going to be wild," one NFL scout said while predicting several "reaches" in Round 1, per ESPN's Matt Miller.

With this in mind, let's dive into some of the latest expert mock drafts and examine a few risky prospects who appear likely to land in the middle of Round 1.

Shemar Stewart, Edge, Texas A&M

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Taking a prospect highly based on potential alone is always risky. It's how teams end up with players like John Ross and Trey Lance early in the first round.

If Texas A&M pass-rusher Shemar Stewart is drafted early on opening night, it'll be purely because of his athletic upside. The 6'5", 281-pound defender has terrific tools but logged just 4.5 sacks in three seasons and is unpolished as a sack artist.

"His movement skills are worth working with, but his pass-rush arsenal is currently limited due to poor hand use," Matt Holder of the B/R Scouting Department wrote. "Also, he has sub-par bend due to some tightness in his lower body, making it difficult for him to corner at the top of the rush and take efficient paths to the quarterback."

Stewart's draft range appears to be wide. The Bleacher Report Scouting Department paired him with the San Francisco 49ers at No. 11 in its latest mock draft, while NFL Media's Chad Reuter mocked him to the Cincinnati Bengals at No. 17. ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. had Stewart going even lower, to the Washington Commanders at No. 29.

If an NFL team can motivate and develop Stewart properly, he could be great. However, there's no guarantee that he'll ever have the elite sack production that eluded him in college.

Jalon Walker, LB, Georgia

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Georgia linebacker Jalon Walker is highly unlikely to flat-out bust. The 11th-ranked prospect on the B/R Scouting Department's draft board has a wonderful blend of size (6'1", 243 lbs), athletic upside and high-end production.

Walker had 60 tackles, 11 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks this past season.

The risk with Walker stems from his inexperience—he didn't make a start until 2024—and lack of a defined position. He might be an off-ball linebacker, a pass-rusher or a versatile combo defender at the next level. However, we've seen positionless players struggle to find roles at the NFL level before.

Linebacker/safety Isaiah Simmons is a good recent example. 2017 first-round pick Haason Reddick didn't really shine until he was moved from off-ball linebacker to edge-rusher in 2020. Walker carries similar risks.

"The Bulldog is a high-ceiling but low-floor type of player," Holder wrote. "...he could be a versatile defender who impacts the game in several ways, but he also runs the risk of struggling to find a true position in the NFL."

Teams' opinions of how Walker can be used will likely define his draft range. Kiper mocked the Georgia product to the Carolina Panthers at No. 8, while Reuter mocked him to the New Orleans Saints at No. 9. The B/R Scouting Department, however, had Walker landing with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at No. 19.

Regardless of where Walker lands, his NFL employer will need to have a plan for maximizing his skill set. Otherwise, he could spend his first few years as a "good" player in multiple positions instead of a true difference-maker at one.

Jaxson Dart, QB, Mississippi

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A month ago, Mississippi quarterback Jaxson Dart seemed like a fringe first-round prospect at best—and he's still only the 57th-ranked player on the B/R board. However, Dart's draft stock could be rising as the draft draws nearer.

The Athletic's Zac Jackson recently quoted a high-ranking AFC scout who said that there's been “real chatter” about Dart being the second quarterback off the board—ahead of Colorado's Shedeur Sanders.

Now, the B/R Scouting Department had Ward and Sanders as the only QBs in its mock draft. However, Kiper had Dart going to the Los Angeles Rams at No. 26, while Reuter had the New York Jets taking Dart all the way up at No. 7.

Two big factors make Dart a risky pick. For one, he's a relatively unpolished prospect with minimal experience in a pro-style offense. The bigger issue is a lack of poise and pocket that could be largely problematic at the next level.

"Dart struggles to throw under pressure while inside the pocket. His mechanics and accuracy go awry," Dame Parson of the B/R Scouting Department wrote. "...Dart lacks confidence throwing against tight man-to-man coverage, leading to a higher pressure-to-sack percentage."

We've seen plenty of shotgun-spread quarterbacks adapt to the pro game, and being a "see-it, throw-it" quarterback may not be a big issue in the right system—the Rams offense, for example, excels at scheming open receivers. Holding the ball too long and crumbling under pressure, however, are problems that might not go away.

If Dart lands in the right scheme and behind a great offensive line, he could be an above-average starter in the NFL. If he ends up with a bad team with a poor offensive line and a coach unwilling to adjust to the quarterback's skill set, however, he could bust.