2025 NBA Playoff Predictions for Every Set Series
With 2025 NBA Playoff series starting to take shape, it's time to look to the postseason.
In the East, the New York Knicks will take on the up-and-coming Detroit Pistons, the Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks will face each other in a playoff series for the second year in a row and the Orlando Magic will take on the reigning champion Boston Celtics.
Out West, the Los Angeles Lakers are matched up with the Minnesota Timberwolves, while the Denver Nuggets will host the Los Angeles Clippers and the Golden State Warriors will face the Houston Rockets.
Previews and predictions for all of the above can be found below.
Detroit Pistons vs New York Knicks
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The Pistons enter the playoffs as the only organization in league history to triple its win total from the previous year.
This team is tough, athletic, has a nice balance of youth and experience and is far better suited to fit alongside Cade Cunningham than it was prior to 2024-25.
He is, of course, Detroit's key to a potential upset. It went 3-1 against the Knicks during the regular season, and Cunningham averaged 30.8 points and 8.3 assists, with a 65.7 true shooting percentage, in those games.
New York would be wise to keep Jalen Brunson off of him during this series, but Cunningham will surely be able to manipulate the defense into some of the switches he wants and have moderate success afterward.
His ability to get to the paint and then find any of his new shooters, like Tim Hardaway Jr., Tobias Harris and Malik Beasley, will keep the Pistons in this series.
But the Knicks have plenty of lengthy perimeter defenders to throw at him. Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby and Josh Hart will all get their shots at him. And that will slow Cade down just enough for New York's offense.
On that end of the floor, Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns' two-man game will flummox an aggressive but still largely untested defense. And the Knicks will win Game 7 in Madison Square Garden.
Prediction: Knicks in 7
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers
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For the second year in a row, the Bucks and Pacers are set to meet in the first round. And for the second year in a row, injuries could play a massive role.
Thanks to deep vein thrombosis in his calf, Damian Lillard hasn't appeared in a game since March 18. And though the Bucks haven't officially shut him down for the rest of the campaign (as the San Antonio Spurs did when Victor Wembanyama's own DVT in his shoulder was reported), they also haven't offered a timeline for his return.
Milwaukee's season-long net rating is actually better when Lillard is off the floor, mostly thanks to a dip on the defensive end, but his offense would've been (or will be) crucial in keeping pace with Indiana's high-octane attack.
This season, the Pacers have scored 119.5 points per 100 possessions with Tyrese Haliburton on the floor. And with or without Lillard, Milwaukee doesn't have great options to disrupt his playmaking.
Of course, the Bucks do have the best individual player in the series in Giannis Antetokounmpo. And he'll almost certainly put up a gaudy stat line.
But Indiana's variety of offensive options (eight players averaged at least nine points and six of those eight averaged at least one three this season) and the uncertainty on Lillard's status will be enough for the Pacers to win this first-round series for a second straight time.
Prediction: Pacers in 6
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Lakers
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We can throw out the 2-2 record from this season series. Only one of the games was played after the Luka Dončić trade completely transformed and supercharged the Lakers.
And while L.A. won that February game against the Timberwolves, Minnesota is also playing a lot better since that matchup.
In other words, this series feels fresh. And as tight as the Western Conference is, either team winning would be far from a surprise.
Minnesota seems uniquely outfitted to challenge the Lakers. Anthony Edwards should be able to dominate a backcourt that's short on defensive upside. And the T'Wolves have multiple rangy defenders to deploy against Luka, LeBron James and Austin Reaves, with one of the game's best backline defenders still behind them.
But there is at least one bit of evidence from the past that might inform this matchup. Just last year, Dončić averaged 32.4 points, 9.6 rebounds, 8.2 assists and 2.2 steals in the Western Conference Finals. His Dallas Mavericks beat Edwards' Wolves in five games.
And now, Luka has even more perimeter creation to help him. Minnesota might sell out on him, but it'll then be left scrambling to cover LeBron and Reaves.
The Timberwolves have some advantages, but the sheer starpower at the top of L.A.'s roster will give it an ever-so-slight edge.
Prediction: Lakers in 7
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets
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The Nuggets and Clippers are entering the playoffs on seemingly opposite ends of the momentum continuum.
The Clippers are 20-9 since the All-Star break, with Kawhi Leonard suddenly looking like his old Finals MVP self. Denver is 14-13 in the same span, with a negative net rating and just three games between them and the recent firings of head coach Michael Malone and general manager Calvin Booth.
But the Nuggets did win those three games, the last one in utterly convincing fashion against the Houston Rockets. They have the best player in the world in Nikola Jokić, who's looking more dangerous since the organizational upheaval.
And outside of a down playoffs in 2024, Jamal Murray has long been known as a big-time postseason performer.
That two-man game, flanked by a strong starting five that includes Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr. and Christian Braun should be able to flummox the Clippers' stout defense. And in the playoffs, interim coach David Adelman should have a shorter rotation, meaning less reliance on Denver's iffy bench.
As for L.A., it's switchability on defense, Harden's playmaking and Kawhi's aforementioned surge are all strengths. Nobody does a good job on Jokić, but Ivica Zubac at least makes him work.
This one feels close enough to default to "best player in the series usually wins," though. And with the Nuggets securing homecourt advantage in the last game of the season, expect it to win a Game 7 in Denver.
Prediction: Nuggets in 7
Orlando Magic vs. Boston Celtics
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The Orlando Magic booked their ticket to the 2025 NBA Playoffs by crushing the Atlanta Hawks in Tuesday's play-in game, 120-95.
Their prize? A first-round matchup with the reigning champion Boston Celtics, who've looked an awful lot like last season's juggernaut, of late.
Thanks to a 19-3 closing kick in which Boston outscored its opponents by 11.3 points per 100 possessions, the Celtics finished the season with a better net rating than the Cleveland Cavaliers.
They also ended up with the league's fourth best defense, which should be a little daunting for a Magic attack that can go frigid cold at a moment's notice.
With multiple rangy defenders, including Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White and Jrue Holiday, to throw at Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, you can expect some extended cold streaks from Orlando.
When those two are slowed down, the rest of the team is prone to look completely flummoxed.
At times, things will be ground to a halt on both ends, thanks to the Magic's own stingy defense, but Boston simply has too much firepower to stay cold for long.
This season, the Celtics knocked down an NBA record 17.8 threes per game (the previous all-time high was 16.7).
Prediction: Celtics in 5
Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets
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The Golden State Warriors snuck by the Memphis Grizzlies in Tuesday's 7-8 play-in game, and they'll now face a Houston Rockets team at a severe disadvantage in the experience department.
Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks and Steven Adams are all postseason battle-tested, but Alperen Şengün, Jalen Green and Amen Thompson have a combined zero career playoff minutes. Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green have 15,450.
That, in itself, obviously doesn't decide this series, but it's a huge factor. Playoff basketball almost looks like an entirely different sport in the NBA. And there's always a learning curve for players who haven't been there.
You can count on Curry, Green and Butler being significant factors throughout this series, and if they get three or four random big nights from Brandin Podziemski, Moses Moody or Quinten Post, they should be able to score the "upset" (Golden State is the lower seed, but it's the betting favorite).
All of that may make it seem like we're selling the Rockets short. They're talented and competitive enough to make each of the individual games competitive, but they're extended playoff run still feels like it's a couple years away.
Prediction: Warriors in 6
Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
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It took a very #HeatCulture effort for the Miami Heat to become the first team in the history of the play-in tournament to make it to the playoffs from the playoffs from 10th place, but their Cinderella run isn't likely to last much longer.
The Cleveland Cavaliers just wrapped up a season with the 16th best single-season average point differential in NBA history. They had the best offense in the NBA this season. They had four players (Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen and Darius Garland) who played at or near an All-NBA level this season.
There is simply too much firepower here for a team like the Heat, who finished in the bottom third of the league on offense, to keep pace.
Of course, this Miami team has plenty of fight and some All-Star talent of its own with Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo. Those two also have a lot of playoff experience to fall back on.
But that's probably not enough to squeeze much more than a win out of this series.
Prediction: Cavaliers in 5
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
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Every year, the NBA's Western Conference is an absolute gauntlet. And the Memphis Grizzlies don't feel like your typical eighth seed.
During the regular season, they were plus-9.3 points per 100 possessions when Ja Morant, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. were all on the floor.
But they're emerging from the play-in tournament for a date with an absolute juggernaut in the Oklahoma City Thunder, who just set the record for single-season average point differential and went 4-0 against Memphis (with an 18.8-point average margin of victory) in the regular season.
The Grizzlies don't have anything close to a great option to cover Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, while OKC is loaded with defensive options to throw at all three of the Grizzlies' stars.
On raw talent and the vibes of a home crowd in Memphis, the underdog may be able to sneak a game in this series, but it's tough to imagine much more than that.
Prediction: Thunder in 5
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