Buy or Sell Kristian Campbell, Yankees Offense and MLB's Most Surprising Hot Starts
There are always a handful of unexpected players and teams that get off to hot starts at the beginning of each new MLB season.
So let's take a dive into some of the most unexpected hot starts of 2025.
The focus here is on players and teams who were not expected to be early standouts, so you won't see Aaron Judge or the Los Angeles Dodgers on this list since no one is surprised by what they have done in the early going.
Our list of unexpected starts includes three hitters, three pitchers, one team offense, one team starting rotation, one team bullpen and one team as a whole that has looked like a real contender to open the year.
With a closer look at each early standout, we've made our choice whether to buy or sell that hot start being sustainable going forward.
2B Kristian Campbell, Boston Red Sox
1 of 10
Stats: 8 G, 33 PA, .423/.515/.808, 11 H, 4 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI
One of the biggest breakout prospects of the 2024 season, Kristian Campbell hit .330/.439/.558 with 32 doubles, 20 home runs, 77 RBI and 24 steals in 115 games last season while reaching Triple-A.
A fourth-round pick in the 2023 draft, he went from fringe prospect to elite up-and-comer in the course of a year, and he continued to impress this spring to win the starting second base job.
The Red Sox provided a further vote of confidence when he was inked to an eight-year, $60 million extension, and with a 60-hit, 60-power offensive profile he is playing up to his ceiling right out of the gates.
Verdict: Buy
C Ivan Herrera, St. Louis Cardinals
2 of 10
Stats: 6 G, 22 PA, .400/.455/1.100, 8 H, 2 2B, 4 HR, 11 RBI
Iván Herrera quietly turned in an excellent 2024 season, hitting .301/.372/.428 for a 125 OPS+ in 259 plate appearances while seeing his first extended action in the big leagues.
With Willson Contreras shifting to first base this season, the starting catcher job now belongs to Herrera, and he is off to a red-hot start thanks to a three-homer game on Wednesday against the Angels.
There were some regression red flags in his strong numbers last season, including a .370 batting average on balls in play that will be extremely difficult to sustain over a full season.
The 24-year-old has the tools to be a 2-WAR player behind the plate for the Cardinals this season, but after topping out at 17 home runs in the minors, his early power surge will likely prove to be an anomaly.
Verdict: Sell
SP Jack Leiter, Texas Rangers
3 of 10
Stats: 2 GS, 2-0, 0.90 ERA, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 10 K, 10.0 IP
There is a reason Jack Leiter was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2021 draft.
The 24-year-old has always had electric stuff going back to his time at Vanderbilt where he racked up 179 strikeouts in 110 innings as a draft-eligible sophomore.
After struggling early in his pro career, he turned a corner at Triple-A last year with a 3.51 ERA and 110 strikeouts in 77 innings, though he was hit hard in his first taste of the big leagues with an 8.83 ERA over 35.2 frames.
Command has been the big question mark throughout his pro career, so his 10-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his first two starts provides some confidence he is finally delivering on his potential. He is now dealing with a blister, but there is no reason to think it will be a nagging issue.
Verdict: Buy
SP Tylor Megill, New York Mets
4 of 10
Stats: 2 GS, 2-0, 0.87 ERA, 5 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 10 K, 10.1 IP
Injuries to Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas opened the door for Tylor Megill to break camp with a spot in the New York Mets rotation.
The towering 6'7" right-hander has been valuable organizational depth for the Mets the past four seasons, making a combined 67 starts and logging a 4.56 ERA in 341.1 innings.
He has allowed just five hits, four walks and one earned run in 10.1 innings over his first two starts, picking up the win in both outings, but a few months shy of his 30th birthday and with the same repertoire as in years past a true breakout still feels unlikely.
That said, he is still a valuable arm capable of providing league-average or slightly better production when called upon in the rotation.
Verdict: Sell
SP Spencer Schwellenbach, Atlanta Braves
5 of 10
Stats: 2 GS, 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 14 K, 14.0 IP
The No. 5 starter job was a revolving door for the Atlanta Braves early in the 2024 season, but Spencer Schwellenbach provided a solution when he made his MLB debut on May 29 and quickly settled into a regular role on the staff.
A second-round pick in 2021 after starring as a two-way player at the University of Nebraska, he ended up making 21 starts during his rookie season, going 8-7 with a 3.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 127 strikeouts in 123.2 innings.
The 24-year-old's breakout is part of the reason the Braves were able to let Max Fried and Charlie Morton both walk in free agency without any significant outside additions, and he is pitching like an ace out of the gates in 2025.
He flashed enough upside as a rookie last year to believe he is capable of an All-Star performance, and with a legitimate six-pitch arsenal he has the ability to consistently keep hitters off balance.
Verdict: Buy
OF George Springer, Toronto Blue Jays
6 of 10
Stats: 8 G, 29 PA, .440/.517/.720, 11 H, 2 2B, 3B, HR, 5 RBI
For the first time in his career, George Springer was statistically a below-average offensive performer, hitting .220/.303/.371 for a 93 OPS+ with 19 doubles, 19 home runs, 65 RBI and 1.1 WAR in 145 games.
The 35-year-old saw a massive downturn in his batted-ball metrics last year, ranking below the midpoint in average exit velocity (20th percentile), hard-hit rate (34th percentile) and expected batting average (42nd percentile).
Those metrics have rebounded in a big way during his hot start this year, with his average exit velocity (87.5 to 95.7 mph) and hard-hit rate (37.4 to 64.7 percent) both spiking to rank among the league leaders.
If he can continue to make hard contact, there is no reason to believe he can't add a fifth career All-Star selection to his resume.
Verdict: Buy
The Padres Bullpen
7 of 10
Stats: 4/4 SV, 0.60 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, .127 BAA, 30.0 IP
The San Diego Padres made upgrading the bullpen a top priority at the trade deadline a year ago, and even with the departure of Tanner Scott in free agency their relief corps has still been elite.
The team's top six relievers have all been lights out this year:
Robert Suarez: 3 G, 3/3 SV, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 3.0 IP
Jason Adam: 4 G, 3 HLD, 0 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K, 4.1 IP
Jeremiah Estrada: 4 G, 1 HLD, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 4.1 IP
Adrian Morejón: 4 G, 1/1 SV, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 4.2 IP
Yuki Matsui: 4 G, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K, 4.0 IP
Wandy Peralta: 6 G, 1 HLD, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 5.1 IP
The Padres finished 11th in the majors with a 3.78 ERA from the bullpen in 2024, and this group has a chance to be one of the best in baseball all year.
Verdict: Buy
The Reds Rotation
8 of 10
Stats: 8 GS, 5 QS, 2.42 ERA, 0.77 WHIP. 164 BAA, 48.1 IP
The Cincinnati Reds had a middle-of-the-pack starting rotation in 2024, finishing 16th in the majors with a 4.09 ERA from their starting staff, but with several high-ceiling young arms it was a group with the potential for more.
With veteran Nick Martinez back for another year and Brady Singer acquired in a deal with the Kansas City Royals, the staff now looks rock-solid top-to-bottom, and they are off to a fantastic start.
Despite their losing record, they rank seventh in ERA (2.42), first in WHIP (0.77), first in opponents batting average (.163) and tied for first in quality starts (5), making it impossible to argue they have been anything but one of the best rotations in baseball.
There will inevitably be some regression in the WHIP and opponents' batting average department, but there is no reason this can't be a top-10 rotation in 2025 with the upside to be a top-five unit.
Verdict: Buy
The Yankees Offense
9 of 10
Stats: 7 G, .288/.376/.621, 23 HR, 62 R, 8.9 runs per game
The New York Yankees piled up 36 runs in three games against the Milwaukee Brewers to begin the 2025 season, including a 20-run explosion in their second game of the year.
They lead the majors in home runs (23), slugging (.621), OPS (.997) and runs per game (8.9), and while losing Juan Soto during the offseason was a major blow, that loss has not been felt in the early going.
Aaron Judge is off to an otherworldly start, hitting .379/.455/1.103 with six home runs and 17 RBI in his first seven games, but he has also received plenty of support in the lineup.
Jazz Chisholm Jr., Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Volpe, Austin Wells, Jasson Domínguez, Ben Rice and Trent Grisham all have at least 10 at-bats and an OPS+ over 120.
It's not out of the question to think the Yankees could have a deeper overall lineup this year, but there is some inevitable regression coming for a team that has seen a ridiculous 26.4 percent of its fly balls go over the fence.
Verdict: Sell them as the No. 1 offense, but this could be a top-10 group
San Francisco Giants
10 of 10
Stats: 6-1, +15 Run Differential
The San Francisco Giants have spent the last three years trapped in the gray area between contention and non-contention, winning 81, 79 and 80 games and finishing no higher than third in the NL West standings.
They finally reeled in a top-tier free agent when they signed Willy Adames to a seven-year, $182 million deal, but they stopped short of a full-blown offseason overhaul, leaving them with questions in the rotation behind Logan Webb and an offense that still looked middle-of-the-pack at best.
With a 6-1 record, they are off to as good a start as any team outside of the rival Los Angeles Dodgers, but can they sustain it and contend for the entire season?
The starting rotation ranks 14th in ERA, and Justin Verlander, Jordan Hicks and Landon Roupp all have an ERA over 5.00 to begin the year. Offensively, the trio of Heliot Ramos, Wilmer Flores and Matt Chapman has done a lot of the heavy lifting, but it is unlikely any of them will carry an OPS+ over 150 much deeper into the season.
If a few things break right, the Giants can contend for a wild-card spot, but this team still has a lot to prove before they can be considered a top-tier contender.
Verdict: Sell
