2015 MLB Trade Deadline: High-Risk Targets Worth the Gamble

On the surface, struggling starters like Kyle Lohse and Mat Latos don't look like logical targets at the 2015 MLB trade deadline.

But sometimes it's the trades that don't seem to make any sense that work out the best. Just ask Brian Sabean, the executive vice president of baseball operations of the San Francisco Giants.

Last summer, the veteran exec snagged Jake Peavy, who was sporting a 1-9 record and a 4.72 ERA with the Boston Red Sox at the time. It looked like Sabean was simply throwing a couple of prospects away in left-hander Edwin Escobar and right-hander Heath Hembree for a one-time ace who was hurtling along the downslope of his career.

Instead, Peavy returned to his vintage form, reeling off a 2.17 ERA and serving as an indispensable member of the Giants' World Series-winning squad.

With the lesson of Peavy in mind, here are five high-risk trade targets who have the track records to suggest they will be worth the gamble for a contending club.

Honorable Mention

Chris Carlson/Associated Press

In the process of combing through the league to find high-risk trade targets, all sorts of big leaguers were taken into consideration. Before getting started with the list, here are a few of the major leaguers who didn't quite make the cut.

• Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies
• Alexei Ramirez, SS, Chicago White Sox
• Aaron Hill, 2B/3B, Arizona Diamondbacks

In all three cases, it was the salary situation that made these players just too risky. Howard's contract situation was the most onerous of the trio, as the Philadelphia Phillies vet is currently playing in the fourth season of a five-year, $125 million deal.

Chris Johnson, 3B, Atlanta Braves

Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images

The owner of a .252 average, a .280 OBP and a .594 OPS, Chris Johnson doesn't have a stat line that screams "game-changer."

But after digging through the numbers, there's reason to believe the 30-year-old could actually be a valuable addition to a playoff hopeful.

During his time in the big leagues, Johnson has always made a habit of doing damage against left-handed pitchers. In parts of seven seasons, the right-handed hitter has posted a .316 average against southpaws. That trend has continued in 2015, as he checks in with a .366 average.

While Johnson has the ability to help a team that is struggling against lefties, the money angle can't be ignored. The third baseman is owed the balance of his $6 million salary in 2015, and he will make at least an additional $17.5 million under the terms of his current deal.

In order to make that financial commitment less burdensome, the Atlanta Braves are willing to get creative. According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, the Braves are willing to move Johnson in a swap "in which he would be attached to another player."

Mat Latos, SP, Miami Marlins

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

With a 3-6 record and a 4.90 ERA, Mat Latos is having his worst season since becoming a full-time starter way back in 2010.

But the 27-year-old right-hander is on the rise.

As Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet notes, the starter has been looking sharp since returning from a DL stint for left knee inflammation. In his last 32.2 innings, Latos has 31 strikeouts and a 3.31 ERA. That's right in line with his career average (3.45 ERA).

The Toronto Blue Jays have been scouting Latos, according to Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun. With the Blue Jays' starting staff sporting the sixth-worst ERA in the bigs and Latos rounding back into form, taking a flier on the starter could prove to be a shrewd move for Toronto.

Mark Trumbo, 1B/DH/OF, Seattle Mariners

Ted S. Warren/Associated Press

It was just over a month ago when the Seattle Mariners acquired Mark Trumbo in a trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

It's not out of the question to think that Trumbo could be on the move again before the end of July.

The Seattle Mariners aren't done just yet, but it's not looking good for the 40-46 club, which is eight games off the pace in the AL West. If the M's end up as sellers, Joel Sherman of the New York Post views Trumbo as a chip the team could potentially cash in on.

There's no way around it. Trumbo's stay in Seattle has been brutal. Safeco Field has proven to be a graveyard for the right-handed masher, as he's hit .213 with just a single bomb in 27 games for the Mariners.

While his returns with Seattle have been poor, Trumbo has a history of hitting for serious power, and pop is one of the most elusive assets during the trade season. Trumbo has clocked at least 29 home runs on three occasions. That track record should lead to plenty of phone calls from interested clubs in the upcoming weeks.

Ian Kennedy, SP, San Diego Padres

Lenny Ignelzi/Associated Press

The 2015 season hasn't gone to script for the San Diego Padres or Ian Kennedy.

The 39-48 Pads are languishing in fourth place in the NL West, trailing the first-place Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 games. Meanwhile, Kennedy, who is pitching in his contract season, has put up a 4-8 mark with a 4.84 ERA in 15 outings.

However, Kennedy has managed to get back on track after a wobbly start to the year. In his last seven appearances, the 30-year-old has compiled a 2.63 ERA while striking out 37 batters in 41 frames. As Jon Morosi of Fox Sports sees it, Kennedy's turnaround makes him a viable trade candidate should the San Diego front office decide to start selling off pieces.

Kyle Lohse, SP, Milwaukee Brewers

Bruce Kluckhohn/Associated Press

2015 has been a dud of a season for Kyle Lohse, who's been battered to the tune of a 6.29 ERA in 18 starts.

"He hasn't been able to get on a roll," Milwaukee Brewers manager Craig Counsell said, via Mark Bowman and Brandon Curry of MLB.com. "He hasn't had that start where it all kind of comes together. He's had to fight his way through starts in almost all of his starts, especially recently."

Fighting through starts is not a familiar concept for Lohse. In the past four seasons, the 36-year-old has never posted an ERA north of 3.54.

A look at his splits suggests he's an ideal candidate for a change of scenes. In 10 outings at Miller Park, Lohse has racked up an 8.06 ERA and has given up 13 home runs in 51.1 innings. On the road, he's posted a far more respectable 4.53 ERA in eight starts.

With Lohse set to hit the free-agent market this winter, a trade away from Milwaukee to a contender could be just the move he needs to rediscover his old form.

Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com.

If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.