NCAA Tournament 2025: Power Ranking the Men's Final Four Teams
Rarely if ever does the Final Four of the men's NCAA tournament produce the quartet of teams that was supposed to get there, but we are headed for one wildly entertaining exception to that rule when No. 1 seeds Auburn, Duke, Florida and Houston take center stage in San Antonio.
Did you know that Houston, Duke and Auburn were the top three teams in the preseason KenPom ratings? Florida was nowhere near that high at No. 26, not cementing its spot in the top four until mid-February. But this grouping of national semifinalists has been a very real possibility for a while now.
But with nothing but No. 1 seeds still standing, how should they be ranked?
Based on a combination of how all four of the remaining teams looked during the regular season, how they look right now and, to some extent, how we think the standings would shake out if these Final Four teams played a round-robin tournament to determine a champion, we've ranked them from bottom to top.
Basically, if we had to re-seed the field today, what would it look like?
4. Auburn Tigers
1 of 4
Previous Rankings: Pre-Tournament (3), Pre-Sweet 16 (4), Pre-Elite Eight (5)
The Road Behind: In each game thus far, Auburn has shown flashes of its "first 29 games of the season" greatness, but also a lot of its more recent comparative mediocrity. The Tigers started slow against Alabama State before eventually cruising. And while they went on a 20-4 run against Creighton, a 20-2 run against Michigan and a 17-0 run against Michigan State, they were otherwise outscored by 20 points during those three games.
The Road Ahead: Kind of wild that Auburn has already faced every other team in this Final Four, right? It was also true of Florida in 2014, and has perhaps happened another time or two in tournament history, but definitely unusual. And what a fun little revenge tour in San Antonio it could be for the Tigers if they beat Florida on Saturday before two days later also avenging their loss to Duke.
Reason to Buy: Heading into the final week of the regular season, Auburn had the most efficient offense in KenPom history. The Tigers have since fallen behind both Duke and Florida in that department, but this is still one of the most turnover-averse offenses in the nation with a wrecking ball in the paint by the name of Johni Broome. They just haven't been able to buy a triple lately, shooting 45-for-149 (30.2 percent) since the beginning of the SEC tournament. If that luck turns and the four primary perimeter shooters who are each north of 37 percent for the year lock back in, watch out.
Reason to Sell: This tournament started with the status of Cooper Flagg (ankle) a bit up in the air, and now we head into the Final Four unsure what to make of the other Wooden Award candidate's health. Broome appeared to sprain his ankle and hyperextend his elbow on the same play in the second half against Michigan State, and though he did return a few minutes later, that elbow definitely wasn't feeling great. Combine that with just not looking over the past four weeks like the same force it was for the first four months and Auburn has, against all odds, become the team that is arguably least likely to win the title.
Will Win It All If...: Johni Broome is more than just OK to play while the perimeter offense heats up. Notably, Auburn has held each of its last six opponents to 70 points or fewer. Relentless offense was the story of this team for most of the year, but they've got grit and a lot of rim protection at the other end, too. If that continues, if Broome keeps doing his double-double thing (he averaged 23.5 PPG and 15.0 RPG in Atlanta even with the injury) and the threes start falling, Auburn could win the first natty in program history.
3. Florida Gators
2 of 4
Previous Rankings: Pre-Tournament (4), Pre-Sweet 16 (3), Pre-Elite Eight (2)
The Road Behind: After entering the dance looking like a runaway freight train, the Florida bandwagon has hit a few considerable speed bumps. Connecticut led for most of the second half in that second-round matchup, but Walter Clayton Jr. took the game over in the closing minutes for a two-point victory. The Gators trailed by as many as 10 points midway through the second half against Texas Tech on Saturday, but ended the game on an 18-4 run for a slightly miraculous comeback once again fueled by Clayton—with a bunch of help from Thomas Haugh.
The Road Ahead: Florida's incredible run over the past two months unofficially began with the road win over Auburn on Feb. 8. Even without Alijah Martin for that one, Clayton and Thomas Haugh were massive as the Gators sprinted to 90 points. Should they win that SEC showdown, it will most likely be Duke waiting for them in the national championship game that a whole heck of a lot of brackets around the nation predicted.
Reason to Buy: Great veteran backcourts have been the hallmark of just about every national champion over the past several decades, and it doesn't get much better than Florida's trio of Clayton, Martin and Will Richard. They're all seniors. They're all gamers. They've each hit at least 76 triples this season. And they each get after it on both ends of the court. Even reserve guard Denzel Aberdeen is a junior who almost always delivers something off the bench.
Reason to Sell: Defense that probably isn't as good as the adjusted efficiency metrics would have you believe was our "Reason to Worry" about Florida heading into the tournament, and that hasn't changed. All four of the Gators' tournament opponents (as well as all three of its SEC tournament foes) averaged at least one point per possession, and they really had no answer for Texas Tech's bully ball with JT Toppin and Darrion Williams. Florida might have lost that game in a blowout if Toppin hadn't missed about a dozen bunnies at the rim (plus all five of his free-throw attempts).
Will Win It All If...: The backcourt trio and Haugh continue to show up in a big way. When all four played well in the Sweet 16 against Maryland, things got out of hand in a bit of a hurry. And despite a turnover margin of minus-5 or worse in each of their last three games, the Gators have managed to survive and advance by virtue of timely dominance by their biggest stars. Cut down on those giveaways and they can win this star-studded Final Four.
2. Houston Cougars
3 of 4
Previous Rankings: Pre-Tournament (2), Pre-Sweet 16 (2), Pre-Elite Eight (3)
The Road Behind: The selection committee did Houston no favors, forcing the Cougars to deal with a woefully under-seeded Gonzaga team in the second round, that for the right to face Purdue in what might as well have been a true road game in Indianapolis in the Sweet 16. But they survived. They advanced. And then they eviscerated Tennessee in the Elite Eight to remind the world that this was the best team not named Duke heading into the dance.
The Road Ahead: Shutting down both Purdue and Tennessee was quite the second-weekend statement. But doing the same to a Duke team that has averaged 94.1 points over its last 11 games in which Cooper Flagg was fully available—before potentially needed to silence Florida's red-hot offense in the championship game—is quite the drastic uptick in difficulty level. Defense wins championships, but for this defense to win this championship, it's going to need to earn it.
Reason to Buy: Houston has been nothing short of elite on defense. That's all season long, but especially during its active 17-game winning streak, holding those opponents to 61.0 PPG (976 points through 16), Gonzaga (76) the only foe of the bunch to eclipse 68 points. The Cougars have also been one of the best three-point shooting teams in the nation, converting at nearly a 40 percent clip. LJ Cryer, Milos Uzan and Emanuel Sharp can (and often do) all make it rain.
Reason to Sell: Because Houston shoots below 50 percent from inside the arc and rarely gets to the free-throw line, an opponent who actually can get to 70 points against the Cougars defense is going to win more often than not. They are 2-4 when allowing more than 68, and there are some seriously elite offenses still standing in this dance.
Will Win It All If...: They get hot from distance while shutting off the water at the other end. Houston is almost undefeated when making at least seven three-pointers this season, the lone loss coming in November against San Diego State in a game that otherwise went all sorts of haywire for the Cougars. If the law firm of Uzan, Cryer and Sharp does its thing along the perimeter on both ends of the floor, Houston could become the first team to win a national championship in its home state since UCLA did it 50 years ago in 1975.
1. Duke Blue Devils
4 of 4
Previous Rankings: Pre-Tournament (1), Pre-Sweet 16 (1), Pre-Elite Eight (1)
The Road Behind: Arizona at least kept the margin respectable until the bitter end of its Sweet 16 matchup with Duke, but the Blue Devils won each of their other three games by at least 20 points and have led by at least five for every second of each second half it has played in this tournament. When Alabama threatened to make things interesting with eight minutes remaining in that Elite Eight game, Duke locked in on defense, went on a 13-0 run and that was that.
The Road Ahead: Duke and Houston were the top two teams in our pre-tournament power rankings, and it's a shame it's a Final Four game instead of a national championship between two teams who have gone a combined 60-2 since the beginning of December. If the Blue Devils can survive Houston's impeccable defense, we could be headed for a rematch of that Duke-Auburn, Flagg-Broome game from back in early December.
Reason to Buy: I don't know, how about best team in the past quarter century according to KenPom? That do anything for you? That's domination, Holmes. With Wonderboy Cooper Flagg and tenacious defense leading the charge, it's not even close, either. Florida's adjusted efficiency margin (36.22) is almost as good as Connecticut's was last year (36.43), but Duke (39.63) is almost 10 percent ahead of the Gators.
Reason to Sell: We still don't know for sure what happens if this freshman-heavy bunch finds itself in a nail-biter. Going 11-for-12 from the free-throw line over the final 130 seconds against Arizona kept that one from becoming a true cuticle chewer. And no sense in trying to make anything out of the near collapse in the ACC tournament against North Carolina, seeing as how Duke played that game without the best player in the country. But they did wilt under the late pressure in each of their three losses, and goodness only knows if another 73-71 type of deficit with 30 seconds remaining results in yet another Flagg turnover.
Will Win It All If...: Business continues as usual. When Flagg and Kon Knueppel are cooking, when Tyrese Proctor is raining threes, when they're throwing lobs to Khaman Maluach, when Sion James is making opponents pay for ignoring him to focus on those other four stars, when this defense is locked in like it has been in holding 37 of 38 foes to 78 points or fewer...best of luck, you know? Every other team left in this tournament has had to rally from a second-half deficit at some point in the past two weeks, but Duke has just been a wagon. If that continues, Jon Scheyer's first natty and this program's sixth is just about inevitable.
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