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Men's NCAA Tournament 2025: B/R Expert Predictions for 2nd Round
The first round of the 2025 men's NCAA tournament was...a bit uneventful?
Not boring. It's never boring. But there sure were a lot of games that turned into blowouts instead of heart stoppers, and we ended up without a single No. 13, No. 14, No. 15 or No. 16 seed pulling off an upset for just the second time since 2007. (It also happened in 2017.)
We do have some Cinderella stories in Drake, McNeese and Colorado State, though. And in lieu of a deep Cinderella that the entire world immediately starts pulling for, what we also have is a second round practically overflowing with games liable to produce the buzzer-beating drama that was lacking for the first few days.
We also have more picks, of course.
For each of the upcoming 16 games, presented in chronological order, we'll briefly sum up what it would take for each team to win each matchup before highlighting the biggest star of said matchup.
Lastly, our college basketball experts will each offer their prediction on which team gets the win.
No. 1 Florida Gators vs. No. 8 Connecticut Huskies
1 of 16
Matchup: No. 1 Florida vs. No. 8 Connecticut (West Regional)
Details: Sunday at 12:10 p.m. ET (CBS), Raleigh
One-Sentence Synopsis: 2006-07 back-to-back champion seeks to make sure 2023-24 back-to-back champion doesn't hoist a third straight trophy.
Florida Wins If: It keeps on keeping on. For the past seven weeks, Florida has been the relentless, inevitable wagon that Connecticut was at this time one year ago, scoring at will, no matter the foe. The Gators have averaged 1.25 points per possession over their last 14 games, and even Tennessee's elite defense could do nothing to slow them down in the SEC championship. Come out with that same mojo on Sunday and Connecticut can't possibly keep pace.
Connecticut Wins If: It shuts off Florida's water in the paint and frustrates the Gators with its slow pace. The Tarris Reed Jr. and Samson Johnson tandem combined for 20 points and 13 rebounds in the win over Oklahoma. That two-headed center has played such a pivotal role for the Huskies all season long, and maybe they can spearhead a bracket buster. If they contest shots while UConn's deliberate tempo keeps Florida from getting into its usual rhythm, that's the recipe for an upset.
Star to Watch: Alijah Martin, Florida. The primary running mate to Walter Clayton Jr., Martin has scored in double figures in 10 of his last 11 games, including an efficient 17 in the opening rout of Norfolk State. As long as he or Will Richard gets going from three, the Gators are so tough to defend.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Florida
Kerry Miller: Connecticut
Joel Reuter: Florida
No. 1 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 9 Baylor Bears
2 of 16
Matchup: No. 1 Duke vs. No. 9 Baylor (East Regional)
Details: Sunday at 2:40 p.m. ET (CBS), Raleigh
One-Sentence Synopsis: The last time these teams met in the NCAA tournament, current Duke head coach Jon Scheyer went for 20 points in a Blue Devils victory in the 2010 Elite Eight.
Duke Wins If: It controls the glass. Not asking for a +15 in the Blue Devils' favor here, but it can't be a +15 for Baylor in which Norchad Omier goes off for something like 28 points and 19 rebounds. (Which he's capable of doing.) If Duke breaks even or better in rebound margin, it's hard to see the Bears pulling off the upset, especially if the Blue Devils are hitting their threes against a defense which allows a ton of shots from the perimeter.
Baylor Wins If: It saved its best for last. The Bears' only win of the season over a team that earned a No. 6 seed or better was that controversial double-overtime game against St. John's back in November, in which they needed to shoot 15-for-29 from three-point range to pull off a minor miracle. There's plenty of talent on the roster, most notably VJ Edgecombe, but it just never came together for Baylor the way anyone was expecting before the year. Only takes one big performance in March to erase that narrative, though.
Star to Watch: Cooper Flagg, Duke. If you were worried about that ankle, maybe don't be. Flagg went for 14 points, seven rebounds, four assists and two blocks while playing just 22 minutes in the opening rout of Mount St. Mary's. Even if he's operating at slightly less than 100 percent, he could take this game over, as he did so many times this season.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Duke
Kerry Miller: Duke
Joel Reuter: Duke
No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 6 Illinois Fighting Illini
3 of 16
Matchup: No. 3 Kentucky vs. No. 6 Illinois (Midwest Regional)
Details: Sunday at 5:15 p.m. ET (CBS), Milwaukee
One-Sentence Synopsis: Should be quite the up-tempo showdown between great offenses, OK defenses and teams that have been all sorts of mercurial throughout this season.
Kentucky Wins If: It shoots better than Illinois. A novel concept, right? Groundbreaking analysis, I know. But in a game where neither side forces many turnovers and they both love to shoot the three, it kind of is that simple. If Kentucky (37.4 percent for the year) can hit threes better than Illinois (31.1 percent), it really should advance. One major note, though: While Kentucky allows three-point attempts at one of the 50 highest rates in the nation, Illinois is almost dead last in that department, opponents typically choosing to attack them in the paint. We'll see how Mark Pope decides to handle that.
Illinois Wins If: Kasparas Jakucionis plays efficiently and the team shoots moderately well from distance. Both parts of that equation were most certainly true in the opener against Xavier, KJ falling one rebound shy of what would have been his first triple-double while the team shot 12-for-30 (40 percent) from three-point range. The Illini have been up and down and back again throughout this season, but everyone has always said that if "Good Illinois" ever managed to show up to stay, it could reach a Final Four.
Star to Watch: Koby Brea, Kentucky. With Jaxson Robinson out of the picture, Brea has attempted more than twice as many threes this season as any other active Wildcat, and he is averaging 14.5 points over his last eight games. If Kentucky needs to hit deep shots to win, Brea's the guy most likely to make it happen.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Kentucky
Kerry Miller: Illinois
Joel Reuter: Illinois
No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 7 Saint Mary's Gaels
4 of 16
Matchup: No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 7 Saint Mary's (East Regional)
Details: Sunday at 6:10 p.m. ET (TNT), Cleveland
One-Sentence Synopsis: Will be one of the most drastic differences in preferred pace of play in NCAA tournament history when the up-tempo Crimson Tide battles the snail-like Gaels.
Alabama Wins If: It scores efficiently, no matter the tempo. Alabama scores a lot of points at a fast pace, but it's also top five in adjusted offensive efficiency, as well as top five in two-point percentage. If the Crimson Tide don't cause problems for themselves by trying to overdo it with their speed, they probably get the job done against a Gaels team that doesn't shoot it particularly well. But facing Saint Mary's can be like trying to pull yourself out of quicksand.
Saint Mary's Wins If: It controls the tempo and the glass. The first part might be a given. Saint Mary's hasn't played in a game with more than 67 possessions in regulation since before Thanksgiving, and will always slow things down on offense. We'll see about the latter part, though, the Gaels at a +366 rebound margin for the year, but Alabama north of +200, too. And let's just say one of the two teams did its rebounding damage against a more rigorous schedule than the other.
Star to Watch: Labaron Philon, Alabama. Mark Sears will probably play with poise, but we'll see about his freshman counterpart who has spent this entire season playing at a grab-and-go, break-neck pace. Philon didn't force anything on Friday, missing his only shot, but going for eight assists against no turnovers. A repeat of that could be huge for the Tide.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Alabama
Kerry Miller: Alabama
Joel Reuter: Alabama
No. 4 Maryland Terrapins vs. No. 12 Colorado State Rams
5 of 16
Matchup: No. 4 Maryland vs. No. 12 Colorado State (West Regional)
Details: Sunday at 7:10 p.m. ET (TBS), Seattle
One-Sentence Synopsis: We know about the tortoise and the hare, but what about this race between the Terrapins and the Rams?
Maryland Wins If: It does its thing on the glass and in the turnover battle. Derik Queen and Julian Reese combined for 30 points, 24 rebounds and four blocks in the opening rout of Grand Canyon, which was pretty well business as usual from that dynamic duo. Memphis' Dain Dainja went for 22 points, 12 rebounds and three blocks against Colorado State's frontcourt, and the Crab Five's bigs should exceed that with room to spare. Maryland also almost always wins the turnover margin, which is an area where the Rams are nothing special.
Colorado State Wins If: It stays hot from distance. The Rams shot 11-of-30 from distance against Memphis, which was actually one of their worst shooting performances in the past six weeks, going 99-of-209 (47.4 percent) during their pre-Selection Sunday 10-game winning streak. Nique Clifford, Kyan Evans and Jalen Lake have each made at least 66 triples on the year and could make it rain against the Terrapins.
Star to Watch: Nique Clifford, Colorado State. Heading into the tournament, Clifford was averaging 22.2 points, 9.9 rebounds, 4.7 assists and 1.4 steals, shooting 54.4 percent from three-point range over his last 12 games. No one has been hotter than the Rams, and mostly because no one has been hotter than their star. There's no question he could put on a show. The question is whether it would be enough.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Maryland
Kerry Miller: Maryland
Joel Reuter: Maryland
No. 3 Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels
6 of 16
Matchup: No. 3 Iowa State vs. No. 6 Ole Miss (South Regional)
Details: Sunday at 7:45 p.m. ET (truTV), Milwaukee
One-Sentence Synopsis: Ball security will be of the utmost importance in this showdown between two of the better turnover-margin teams in the country.
Iowa State Wins If: It handles the Rebels' ball pressure. Ole Miss actually lost the turnover battle against North Carolina, which was the first time that has happened all season. And for all the things Iowa State does well, avoiding live-ball turnovers has been a bit of a struggle. Limit runouts, though, while getting some of their own—Iowa State has a better steal percentage than Ole Miss—and the Cyclones probably get back to the Sweet 16 for the third time in four years.
Ole Miss Wins If: It's more Ole Make than Ole Miss. Through the first 14 minutes against North Carolina, the Rebels missed just four field-goal attempts, going 12-for-16 with seven made triples, building up a lead from which the perpetually late-arriving Tar Heels could not recover. This is usually an average shooting team, but the Rebels do have plenty of scoring options, six players averaging 10+ PPG. Let's see if they can cook against a quality defense.
Star to Watch: Tamin Lipsey, Iowa State. The veteran point guard missed ISU's final game before the tournament with a groin strain, but he looked no worse for wear in 24 minutes played against Lipscomb, finishing with 10 points, four assists and three rebounds. He'll be crucial in the Cyclones' quest to survive that Ole Miss ball pressure.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Iowa State
Kerry Miller: Iowa State
Joel Reuter: Iowa State
No. 2 Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 10 New Mexico Lobos
7 of 16
Matchup: No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 10 New Mexico (South Regional)
Details: Sunday at 8:40 p.m. ET (TNT), Cleveland
One-Sentence Synopsis: Richard Pitino went 3-9 vs. Tom Izzo during his eight years at Minnesota, but could he improve to 1-0 while with New Mexico?
Michigan State Wins If: Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper win in the paint. Jase Richardson's late-season breakout is what propelled Michigan State to new heights, but the Spartans never much established a star big man. If that frontcourt by committee can more than hold its own against Nelly Junior Joseph, though, maybe even getting the big Lobo into some early foul trouble, that'd be a key edge for a Spartans team that almost always wins the rebounding battle.
New Mexico Wins If: Donovan Dent puts on a show. UNM's star point guard went for 21 points and six assists in the win over Marquette, but it took him 17 shots and eight turnovers to get there. That lack of efficiency probably isn't going to cut it against a superior Michigan State squad that leads the nation in three-point defense, but he can do better and can get to the free-throw line on a regular basis.
Star to Watch: Coen Carr, Michigan State. We highlighted Richardson in the first-round preview, but you saw in that game against Bryant what a ridiculously athletic impact Carr can make. He isn't consistent, but he can elevate like few others in the world for a rim-rattling and momentum-shifting dunk.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Michigan State
Kerry Miller: Michigan State
Joel Reuter: New Mexico
No. 4 Arizona Wildcats vs. No. 5 Oregon Ducks
8 of 16
Matchup: No. 4 Arizona vs. No. 5. Oregon (East Regional)
Details: Sunday at 9:40 p.m. ET (TBS), Seattle
One-Sentence Synopsis: The Pac-12 is dead and gone, but there will be no love lost when these former conference rivals square off for a spot in the Sweet 16.
Arizona Wins If: It controls the paint. We talk a lot about the Wildcats living and dying by Caleb Love's permanent green light from beyond the perimeter, but it's inside the arc where they bake their bread. This was readily apparent with the 50 points in the paint and +31 rebounding edge in the first-round demolition of Akron. Tobe Awaka is the best rebounder of the bunch, but it's not a one- or two-man show. Six Wildcats have made at least 93 two-point buckets and grabbed at least 120 rebounds for the year.
Oregon Wins If: It locks in on defense. Arizona is almost unbeatable when scoring at least 78 points, but quite beatable when falling below that mark. And that was true of the previous four years when these teams played on a regular basis, Arizona winning the games played in the 80s while Oregon won the ones in the 60s. To that end, Nate Bittle's rim protection and rebounding will be massive.
Star to Watch: Caleb Love, Arizona. He had a relatively quiet night against Akron, but Love entered the dance averaging 18.2 points, 4.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists over his last 17 games. When he has made at least three triples in a game this season, Arizona is 13-3.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Oregon
Kerry Miller: Arizona
Joel Reuter: Oregon
No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers vs. No. 12 McNeese Cowboys
9 of 16
Matchup: No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 12 McNeese (Midwest Regional)
Details: Saturday at 12:10 p.m. ET (CBS), Providence
One-Sentence Synopsis: Will Wade looks to extend his stay at McNeese for one more week at the expense of another foe who made a deep run in last year's dance.
Purdue Wins If: Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Co. are hitting their threes. As much as McNeese's physicality won the day against Clemson, the Tigers probably win that game if they don't start out 1-of-16 from three-point range. (Goodness knows they almost stormed back from a 22-point deficit by going 8-of-14 the rest of the way.) McNeese allows threes at one of the highest rates in the nation, and Purdue makes theirs at a nearly top-10 rate.
McNeese Wins If: It imposes its will in the paint. The Cowboys will generate some turnovers. No question about that. But the X-factor is their presence down low on offense. Purdue finished +21 on the glass against High Point and shut down its two-point offense until it was too late to matter, but that's definitely not the norm from the Boilermakers, who rank dead last in two-point defense among the 68 tournament teams. If McNeese is living down low and maybe getting Trey Kaufman-Renn in some foul trouble, advantage Cowboys.
Star to Watch: Fletcher Loyer, Purdue. For all of these picks, we'll give you a different star from the direction we went in the first round, but Loyer could be crucial in this one. He's kind of the reluctant/forgotten star of Purdue's offense, and he really didn't show up in the first round, taking just four shots against High Point. His 46 percent three-point stroke will be key here, though.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Purdue
Kerry Miller: Purdue
Joel Reuter: Purdue
No. 2 St. John's Red Storm vs. No. 10 Arkansas Razorbacks
10 of 16
Matchup: No. 2 St. John's vs. No. 10 Arkansas (West Regional)
Details: Saturday at 2:40 p.m. ET (CBS), Providence
One-Sentence Synopsis: Two up-and-coming coaches looking to get to the Sweet 16 for the first time with their current programs.
St. John's Wins If: The defense continues to do its thing. The amount of green on the defensive side of St. John's KenPom profile is remarkable, top 40 in the nation in so many categories, including No. 1 in overall adjusted defensive efficiency. And in the four games Arkansas played this season against top 12 defenses (Tennessee, Florida, Texas A&M and Auburn), it went 0-4 and averaged 59.0 points. For all the concerns we have about the Red Storm's shooting percentages, they should win if holding the Hogs to 59.
Arkansas Wins If: The Jonas Aidoo and Trevon Brazile duo continues to flourish. Both veteran big men were injured early in the year. And though they've both appeared in every game since Thanksgiving, they were non-factors for most of the season. That all changed a few weeks ago, Brazile tallying all four of his double-doubles for the season in Arkansas' last five games; the duo combining to average 30.0 points, 19.4 rebounds and 2.6 blocks since March 4. Their size and strength will be even more important than usual in this game.
Star to Watch: Boogie Fland, Arkansas. After missing more than two months of action, the likely one-and-done freshman was back out there for 24 minutes against Kansas, and he had the steals on back-to-back possessions late in the game that really turned the tide for the Razorbacks. Can he play a key role again after a quick turnaround against a substantially more physical defense?
Predictions
David Kenyon: Arkansas
Kerry Miller: Arkansas
Joel Reuter: St. John's
No. 4 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 5 Michigan Wolverines
11 of 16
Matchup: No. 4 Texas A&M vs. No. 5 Michigan (South Regional)
Details: Saturday at 5:15 p.m. ET (CBS), Denver
One-Sentence Synopsis: So much for that UCSD-Yale matchup so many of us were predicting, eh?
Texas A&M Wins If: It dominates the offensive glass. With two 7-footers in its starting lineup, Michigan is actually the considerably taller team in this matchup. But the Wolverines are almost exactly a "national average" defensive rebounding team while Texas A&M leads the nation in offensive rebound percentage. The Aggies had 11 offensive rebounds and 16 second-chance points against Yale, and that was a light day of work by their standards.
Michigan Wins If: Perimeter shots are finding their mark. A&M allows threes at one of the highest rates in the country, while Michigan certainly tees up triples more than the average team. The Wolverines only shoot 33.4 percent, though, and very well could brick their way right out of the dance. Six of the players in their primary seven-man rotation hit at least one three against UCSD, though it's probably going to take more than 9-of-27 to win this one.
Star to Watch: Danny Wolf, Michigan. He's Michigan's top defensive rebounder, one of its primary three-point weapons and a permanently intriguing matchup problem with his affinity for playing along the perimeter. If he can do what he did to Purdue and Maryland last weekend, combining for 39 points, 25 rebounds and 10 assists, that's a game-changer.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Michigan
Kerry Miller: Michigan
Joel Reuter: Michigan
No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 11 Drake Bulldogs
12 of 16
Matchup: No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 11 Drake (West Regional)
Details: Saturday at 6:10 p.m. ET (TNT), Wichita
One-Sentence Synopsis: Either the still-standing under-seeded mid-major or arguably the most under-appreciated major-conference contender will be dancing into the Sweet 16.
Texas Tech Wins If: It gets comfortable in a snail-paced game. Which, it should be noted, Texas Tech did plenty of times this season. Maybe not quite Drake's pace, but the Red Raiders did go 4-0 in games featuring 61 or fewer possessions and won at Houston in an overtime game of 71 possessions. Might want to avoid firing up 46 three-point attempts like they did against UNC-Wilmington on Thursday, as the Bulldogs aren't great about defending the paint and will foul a lot if you let them. But Texas Tech is the better team, more efficient on both ends of the floor. If the game flow doesn't become a problem, it probably wins.
Drake Wins If: It flusters the Red Raiders with turnovers. To no one's surprise, a big part of Drake's win over Missouri was its turnover-forcing defense, turning 13 steals and 17 total turnovers into 23 points off turnovers. It doesn't often turn those steals into fast-break points, but Drake leads the nation in steal percentage. Good luck doing it against TTU, though, which has averaged 7.3 turnovers (4.6 on steals) over its last 10 games.
Star to Watch: Elijah Hawkins, Texas Tech. If keeping live-ball turnovers to a minimum and handling Drake's slow tempo are the two keys to this game, might as well highlight the Red Raiders point guard who went for 14 points, 10 assists and nine rebounds in the first-round win over UNC-Wilmington. Over his last 13 games, Hawkins has 92 assists, 23 turnovers and 20 steals. If that trend continues, hard to see Drake pulling off the upset.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Texas Tech
Kerry Miller: Texas Tech
Joel Reuter: Drake
No. 1 Auburn Tigers vs. No. 9 Creighton Bluejays
13 of 16
Matchup: No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 9 Creighton (South Regional)
Details: Saturday at 7:10 p.m. ET (TBS), Lexington
One-Sentence Synopsis: All those people who cried foul last Sunday over Auburn needing to face Louisville in Lexington sure did overlook a capable Creighton team who could pull off this upset.
Auburn Wins If: It owns the turnover battle. Auburn ranks seventh in the nation in turnover percentage on offense while Creighton ranks 361st on defense. It's plausible—if not likely—that the Tigers only commit two turnovers in this game. And against a Creighton team with a negative-151 turnover margin for the season, Auburn could own the game with points off turnovers. Add to that the fact that Ryan Kalkbrenner should have his hands full with one of the best shot-blocking, physical defenses in the country and Auburn could really shut off Creighton's water.
Creighton Wins If: It defies Auburn's three-point defense. At 29.0 percent, the Tigers have the fifth-lowest defensive three-point percentage in the nation, opponents averaging just 5.9 makes per game. And, well, that just won't do for Creighton, which averages 27.7 three-point attempts per game, taking nearly half of its shots from distance. Creighton hit nine threes when it beat St. John's, 11 in its win over Marquette and a dozen when it stunned No. 1 Kansas back in early December. Probably needs 10 in this one to at least make it a game.
Star to Watch: Miles Kelly, Auburn. Between Thursday's game against Alabama State and the win at Kentucky earlier this month, Kelly is 16-of-29 from three-point range at Rupp Arena this season. If he's shooting like that again right out of the gates, this could be over in a hurry.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Auburn
Kerry Miller: Auburn
Joel Reuter: Auburn
No. 3 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 6 BYU Cougars
14 of 16
Matchup: No. 3 Wisconsin vs. No. 6 BYU (East Regional)
Details: Saturday at 7:45 p.m. ET (CBS), Denver
One-Sentence Synopsis: If you bet the under on this one, you clearly just hate fun.
Wisconsin Wins If: Its defense puts in work. Both of these offenses are prolific, reaching 80 points a combined 39 times this season, including a handful of "triple digits in regulation" outbursts. But while BYU is often content to just embrace a race in a glorified shooting contest, the Badgers are typically respectable on defense. Very few blocks or steals, but can at least make the opposition work for its buckets. Could be key in this matchup.
BYU Wins If: It owns the three-point contest. BYU scores 39.2 percent of its points from three-point range, but also allows its opponents to score 38.7 of their points from distance. Those rank among the 20 highest marks in the nation in both departments, and we did just watch A) VCU drain 15 triples against BYU and B) Wisconsin hit 19 threes last week against UCLA. If something like that happens again, this red-hot run probably reaches its conclusion. If it's more like the recent nine-game winning streak—in which the Cougars shot 39.2 percent and made 11.4 per game while allowing 33.6 and 9.2, respectively—they probably win.
Star to Watch: Steven Crowl, Wisconsin. Everyone who touches the floor for Wisconsin has legitimate three-point range, including its 7-foot, fifth-year senior, who is converting at a 41.7 percent clip for the year. Crowl had 18 points in Wisconsin's tournament opener, a mark he has now reached six times this season. His size should be an X-factor.
Predictions
David Kenyon: BYU
Kerry Miller: BYU
Joel Reuter: BYU
No. 1 Houston Cougars vs. No. 8 Gonzaga Bulldogs
15 of 16
Matchup: No. 1 Houston vs. No. 8 Gonzaga (Midwest Regional)
Details: Saturday at 8:40 p.m. ET (TNT), Wichita
One-Sentence Synopsis: This is a second-round showdown that should've at least been an Elite Eight game, if not a Final Four matchup.
Houston Wins If: It slows down the Ike/Huff tandem at the 5. Houston has one of the best interior defenses in the nation, J'Wan Roberts, JoJo Tugler and Ja'Vier Francis all with ridiculous wingspans and a nose for blocks and rebounds. But can they limit Gonzaga's elite interior attack, where Graham Ike and Braden Huff combine to shoot 10.8-of-17.5 on twos while splitting the center job? If so, that's a massive advantage for the No. 1 seed.
Gonzaga Wins If: It stifles Houston's three-point attack. Gonzaga's overall defensive numbers are good-not-great, but it does a great job defending the arc, especially as of late, its last four opponents shooting a combined 19-of-85 (22.4 percent) from distance. Houston ranks fourth in the nation at 39.6 percent on its three-point attempts but doesn't even shoot 49 percent inside the arc. Thus, if the threes aren't falling, Houston could struggle to put points on the board.
Star to Watch: J'Wan Roberts, Houston. Roberts vs. Ike in the paint could be an all-out war. If Houston's veteran big man wins that matchup, it's hard to see Gonzaga pulling off the minor upset. But if Ike does what virtually none have been able to do and out-toughs Roberts, game on.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Gonzaga
Kerry Miller: Houston
Joel Reuter: Houston
No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 7 UCLA Bruins
16 of 16
Matchup: No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 7 UCLA (Midwest Regional)
Details: Saturday at 9:40 p.m. ET (TBS), Lexington
One-Sentence Synopsis: Volunteers and Bruins square off in what could be a late-night "race" to 60 points.
Tennessee Wins If: Chaz Lanier scores at least 18 points. Them's the rules. The Vols are 20-0 when that happens. And given how many three-point attempts UCLA allows on average (23.4 for the year; 31.5 over its last two games), Lanier should have plenty of opportunities to reach his magic threshold. If he does his scoring while Tennessee's defense clamps down as it so often does, UCLA could be fighting an unwinnable battle.
UCLA Wins If: It turns over Tennessee en masse. Not an easy task, mind you. The Volunteers have committed 13 or more turnovers in a game just twice all season, and they still won those games at Louisville and at Oklahoma by a combined 40 points. But forcing turnovers is probably UCLA's biggest strength, and turning turnovers into fast-break buckets is quite the strategy for dealing with Tennessee's elite defense.
Star to Watch: Zakai Zeigler, Tennessee. Lanier gets most of the love, but Zeigler is Tennessee's most important player. He went for 12 points and 12 assists with nary a turnover in the opener against Wofford, and he could take advantage of UCLA's three-point defense almost as much as his running mate. And if the Bruins need turnovers to win, Zeigler's ability to limit giveaways will be massive.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Tennessee
Kerry Miller: Tennessee
Joel Reuter: Tennessee
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