2025 NBA Free Agency: Predicting Every Team’s Most Likely Flight Risk
As the 2024-25 NBA regular season winds down, some teams have already begun to look ahead to the offseason. While the number of extensions and trades has increased under the new collective bargaining agreement, each franchise is still facing some key free-agency decisions.
Few teams will have significant spending power outside the Brooklyn Nets ($65-90 million) and Detroit Pistons (up to $25 million). Most teams will only have the $14.1 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception to steal another team's talent. The higher-payroll franchises may have nothing more to offer than minimum deals or the $5.7 million taxpayer MLE, so teams may have more leverage over their own free agents than ever.
With that in mind, we've gone through each team in the league to predict their most likely flight risk in free agency.
Atlanta Hawks: Clint Capela
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Many free-agent decisions speak more to whether the team wants to spend money to keep a player and less on who might steal them.
The Hawks must decide if Clint Capela is their starting center of the future or whether they should hand the reins to 24-year-old Onyeka Okongwu. Capela is taller (6'10") than Okongwu (6'8"), but he's almost 31 and has slowed with age.
The Hawks can look for a center in the draft (via the Los Angeles Lakers and/or Sacramento Kings' first-rounders) or in free agency. Capela should find suitors elsewhere, although he'll undoubtedly be taking a pay cut from his $22.3 million salary this season. He should sign a new deal in the $5-14 million-per-year range.
Other flight risks: Caris LeVert, Larry Nance Jr., Garrison Mathews
Boston Celtics: Luke Kornet
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The Celtics have one of the NBA's most expensive rosters, but they're paying for a shot at a second straight title. With new ownership on the way, will they stay at such a high payroll?
Initially, probably so. While Al Horford will turn 39 in June, he's likely to be back with the Celtics.
Can the same be said of Luke Kornet? The backup center is turning 30 this summer. This may be the best time to turn his productive years in Boston into a contract larger than a minimum somewhere else.
Other flight risks: Torrey Craig, Al Horford
Brooklyn Nets: Day'Ron Sharpe
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The Nets are in a unique position, as they have more than twice the projected cap space of any other team. No one can outspend them on their own free agents (like Cam Thomas, who'll be a restricted free agent).
Still, the Nets may hesitate to invest heavily in Day'Ron Sharpe when they're already paying $25.4 million next year for starting center Nicolas Claxton.
Sharpe can be a restricted free agent if the Nets give him a qualifying offer, which would allow them to match any offers. Only the Pistons project to have enough cap space to chase Thomas, but they likely won't go after a restricted free agent whom Brooklyn can easily match on.
However, Sharpe may have multiple suitors willing to give him a large enough offer to give Brooklyn pause.
Other flight risks: D'Angelo Russell, Ziaire Williams (restricted), De'Anthony Melton, Cam Thomas
Charlotte Hornets: Seth Curry
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The Hornets have nearly their entire roster under contract next season. Considering how badly the season has gone, that's not necessarily a positive.
Still, with a high lottery pick in June and a healthy Brandon Miller (wrist), Charlotte may start to turn the corner next season.
While Tre Mann is the Hornets' most intriguing free agent, he'll be a restricted free agent and is out for the season with a back injury. Curry will turn 35 in August, but he's a talented veteran shooter who may land elsewhere next summer.
Other flight risks: Taj Gibson, Tre Mann
Chicago Bulls: Josh Giddey
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Josh Giddey has produced for the Bulls this year after the Oklahoma City Thunder traded him for Alex Caruso this past offseason. He's averaging 14.0 points, 7.7 rebounds and 6.9 assists per game.
Chicago could have extended him before the season, but it didn't. He's now set to become a restricted free agent.
Is he on Brooklyn or Detroit's wish list? Will another team try to acquire him via sign-and-trade? It's more likely than not that Giddey will return to the Bulls, but Brooklyn could use a starting point guard.
Other flight risks: Tre Jones, Talen Horton-Tucker
Cleveland Cavaliers: Ty Jerome
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The Cavaliers are the biggest threat to the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference, but that has come at a cost. With stars Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen all on long-term contracts, Cleveland will have one of the NBA's highest payrolls next season.
The Cavs didn't shy away from their looming budget crunch at the trade deadline. Instead, they acquired De'Andre Hunter's hefty contract from the Atlanta Hawks.
That could be an issue this summer for Ty Jerome, who's having his best season yet. (He's averaging 12.0 points a game while shooting 42.3 percent from three-point range.) The Cavaliers have his Early Bird rights, which should allow them to pay him almost as much as the non-taxpayer mid-level exception (about $14 million), but will they go that deep into the luxury tax and over the second apron to retain him?
Other flight risks: Sam Merrill, Javonte Green
Dallas Mavericks: Spencer Dinwiddie
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Kyrie Irving would have been the obvious flight risk for the Mavericks, but his recent ACL tear could prompt him to pick up his $44 million player option instead. The rest of Dallas' core is under contract except for guards Dante Exum and Dinwiddie.
Exum has struggled to stay healthy, so his market might be limited. Dinwiddie therefore may be the Mavericks free agent who's most likely to leave if another team is willing to pay him more than the minimum.
The most the Mavericks can spend on Dinwiddie without using a mid-level exception is about $4.4 million, which might be enough to keep him.
Other flight risks: Kessler Edwards (restricted), Kyrie Irving, Dante Exum
Denver Nuggets: Russell Westbrook
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The Nuggets are getting the most out of Russell Westbrook, who signed a two-year, veteran-minimum deal this past offseason. He figures to decline his $3.5 million player option to explore free agency this summer, even if he plans to return to Denver.
The Nuggets have his non-Bird rights, so they can pay him about $4.2 million as the starting salary of his next deal if he does opt out. However, they also have real budget issues to navigate.
Even if Westbrook opts in, Denver projects to be at about $206.7 million next season, a hair under the expected $207.8 million second apron—let alone at a slightly-higher price for the veteran guard. Would he get more from another team? He's still averaging a well-rounded 13.2 points, 6.2 assists and 5.0 rebounds in only 28.2 minutes per game.
Other flight risks: Vlatko Čančar
Detroit Pistons: Malik Beasley
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The Pistons need to decide whether to keep their current group together or create cap room to add another free agent. Detroit has jumped from perpetual lottery hell to an almost guaranteed playoff berth, but how much of that is due to veterans like Tim Hardaway Jr., Dennis Schröder and Malik Beasley?
Of the three, Beasley is the youngest (28) and best three-point shooter (42.2 percent), so he should be the priority to retain either way.
The Pistons could use cap room first, then spend their room mid-level exception ($8.8 million) on Beasley, letting Hardaway and Schröder go for potential upgrades. But that assumes Beasley won't get a more significant offer elsewhere.
Other flight risks: Lindy Waters III, Paul Reed, Tim Hardaway Jr., Dennis Schröder
Golden State Warriors: Jonathan Kuminga
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The Warriors and Jonathan Kuminga weren't on the same page in extension talks before the season. That will come to a head in July when Kuminga becomes a restricted free agent.
The Nets can easily scare off Golden State with an overpay, but would a starting salary of $25 million from the Pistons be enough?
The Warriors could also sign-and-trade Kuminga for players to help over the next two years (the Stephen Curry/Jimmy Butler/Draymond Green timeline).
Other flight risks: Kevon Looney, Gary Payton II
Houston Rockets: Fred VanVleet
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Like the Pistons, the Rockets have also emerged from the depths of the lottery into playoff contention. The signing of veteran guard Fred VanVleet was vital to that transition.
Houston now needs to decide whether to pick up his $44.9 million team option. The 31-year-old wouldn't get anything close to that on the open market.
Large extensions kick in this summer for Jalen Green and Alperen Şengün, and the Rockets want to continue upgrading their roster. The optimal path would be convincing VanVleet to opt out and re-sign on a mutually favorable multi-year deal at a lower price.
However, that strategy would be risky. If Houston lets VanVleet hit free agency and doesn't offer enough to stay, he could move on. The most realistic path is that he stays, though.
Other flight risks: Steven Adams, Jeff Green, Jae'Sean Tate
Indiana Pacers: Myles Turner
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Heading into the summer, the Pacers don't have a single starting center under contract.
Myles Turner is averaging 15.6 points and 1.9 blocks per game while shooting 39.4 percent from three. He's earning almost $20 million this season, but the Pacers might not be able to retain him without dipping into the luxury tax (which they've historically avoided at all costs).
The Nets already have Nic Claxton, and the Pistons have Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart, but either could pivot to chase Turner. If most teams are limited to offering about $14.1 million to external free agents, some may be able to shed the salary needed to pay Turner roughly what he's earning now from Indiana.
If so, the Pacers may need to move some of their own players like Obi Toppin and/or Bennedict Mathurin, assuming they take the same approach to the luxury tax.
Other flight risks: Isaiah Jackson (restricted), Thomas Bryant
Los Angeles Clippers: James Harden
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The Clippers are more likely than not to keep James Harden, who has a $36.3 million player option. He could opt out to re-sign for two more seasons, timing his deal to end with Kawhi Leonard's after 2026-27.
If Harden does opt out, L.A. could always choose to go in a different direction.
While the Clippers are probably good enough to make the playoffs this season, they may need to reset in the long term. In the meantime, the partnership with Harden could continue.
Other flight risks: Amir Coffey, Nicolas Batum (player option), Ben Simmons
Los Angeles Lakers: LeBron James
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Upon trading Anthony Davis to the Dallas Mavericks for Luka Dončić, it seemed like the LeBron James era might be coming to a close for the Los Angeles Lakers. Instead, James and Dončić have developed instant on-court chemistry together. The younger star may help prolong James' already historic 22-year career.
James has a $52.6 million player option. He can opt out to leave or stay, possibly at a price that better helps the Lakers add to a potential championship-level roster.
It's a stretch to imagine him leaving for teams like the Nets or Pistons, but it's up to James to decide.
Other flight risks: Jaxson Hayes, Dorian Finney-Smith (player option)
Memphis Grizzlies: Luke Kennard
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The Grizzlies have bounced back after a down 2023-24 season. While they've battled injuries at times, it's nothing like last year's mess.
Two key Grizzlies players—Santi Aldama and Luke Kennard—are set to become free agents this summer. The 24-year-old Aldama may appeal to several teams as a stretch big, but he'll be a restricted free agent, so Memphis is more likely than not to keep him.
Kennard, who turns 29 in June, will be unrestricted. Given his stellar 44.5 percent three-point shooting percentage, the Grizzlies may be outbid, especially if they prioritize using cap room to renegotiate and extend Jaren Jackson Jr. this summer.
Other flight risks: Marvin Bagley III, Santi Aldama
Miami Heat: Davion Mitchell
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Most of the Heat's roster is already under contract next season. Terry Rozier's $26.6 million salary is largely guaranteed ($24.9 million). Duncan Robinson has an early termination option that he's unlikely to use, but $9.9 million of his $19.9 million salary is guaranteed either way.
That leaves Mitchell, whom the Heat acquired at the trade deadline from the Toronto Raptors. The 26-year-old guard has been solid for Miami, averaging 9.4 points and 4.6 assists per game while shooting 43.9 percent from three.
Since Mitchell will be a restricted free agent this summer, a competing team may need to give him an aggressive offer sheet to scare off Miami from matching.
Other flight risks: Alec Burks
Milwaukee Bucks: Brook Lopez
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The Bucks only have four players on guaranteed contracts in 2025-26: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, Kyle Kuzma and Tyler Smith.
Will Bobby Portis' 25-game suspension for using a banned substance lead him to pick up his $13.4 million player option? Pat Connaughton figures to pick up his $9.4 million option, but Kevin Porter Jr. may get out of his minimum deal to see if he can get more.
Regardless, Milwaukee will be busy this summer securing the return of its current players. Lopez may be the most significant flight risk if the Bucks aren't willing to pay the soon-to-be 37-year-old center a salary close to his current $23 million.
Other flight risks: Jericho Sims, Taurean Prince, Gary Trent Jr., Bobby Portis
Minnesota Timberwolves: Naz Reid
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Assuming Julius Randle picks up his $30.9 million player option, Minnesota must venture into the luxury tax to keep its core together. Unless the Nets or Pistons want to pay Randle, it's in his best interest to wait until 2026 to explore free agency.
The Timberwolves have two key free agents, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Reid (player option). Both are important to the franchise.
While Alexander-Walker may have suitors, Reid should have a more substantial market as a scoring big man. The 2023-24 Sixth Man of the Year may be the kind of player whom the teams with cap space consider chasing as an unrestricted free agent.
Other flight risks: Julius Randle (player option), Nickeil Alexander-Walker
New Orleans Pelicans: Bruce Brown Jr.
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The Pelicans have entered the last two seasons over the luxury tax, but they got under by the trade deadline both times. They'll start 2025-26 about $3 million under the tax, but that's without retaining or adding any players outside of the draft.
Unless New Orleans makes a trade to trim salary, it might need to pass on re-signing Bruce Brown Jr.
The Pelicans acquired Brown in the Brandon Ingram trade from the Toronto Raptors. He's playing 23.8 minutes per game for the Pelicans, averaging 7.4 points while shooting 35.3 percent from three.
Still, he could return to New Orleans if he doesn't have many suitors.
Other flight risks: Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
New York Knicks: Precious Achiuwa
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The Knicks are all-in on a team with championship aspirations. However, before they re-sign Precious Achiuwa, their team payroll should reach about $205 million, just under the second apron ($207.8 million).
Still, he's a capable player on a team that needs the size.
If Mitchell Robinson stays healthy (which he's struggled to do), Achiuwa may be expendable. New York doesn't have anywhere to cut via trade outside of Robinson.
Other flight risks: Cameron Payne, Delon Wright, Landry Shamet
Oklahoma City Thunder: Jaylin Williams
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The Thunder already have all 15 of their players on standard contracts signed through next year. Only Ajay Mitchell and Jaylin Williams have team options or non-guaranteed salaries.
Oklahoma City could have as many as three first-round picks this year and may need to create roster space. The Thunder may trade some of those 2025 picks for future first-rounders, but if they need to make room, would they look to move Williams? That's a stretch, as he's a productive bench player.
The Thunder are the best team in the West and are a serious threat to win this year's title. Bringing back the same group doesn't sound like the worst idea, so Williams figures to still be in Oklahoma City next season.
Other flight risks: Ajay Mitchell (team option)
Orlando Magic: Gary Harris
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Like the Thunder, the Magic also have all 15 of their players on standard contracts signed through next season. They have team options on Mo Wagner, Gary Harris, Cory Joseph and Caleb Houstan.
However, with two first-round picks (including one from the Denver Nuggets) and two second-rounders, someone on the roster may have to go to make room.
Wagner is recovering from a serious knee injury, but since his brother is one of the Magic's star players (Franz Wagner), the team may consider keeping him around, possibly on a reduced salary. Harris is a strong locker room veteran, but he may be the casualty of the roster crunch.
Other flight risks: Mo Wagner, Cory Joseph, Caleb Houstan
Philadelphia 76ers: Guerschon Yabusele
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The Sixers' season has not gone as hoped, especially with Joel Embiid (knee) struggling to stay healthy. Philadelphia owes its first-round pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder if it falls outside of the top six, but the spate of losses has helped on that front.
However, the Sixers face serious issues that may not be resolved until they better understand Embiid's long-term prognosis.
Guerschon Yabusele has been one of their few bright spots this season. He signed a one-year, veteran-minimum contract with the Sixers after his breakout run at the 2024 Olympics last summer. Philly probably needs to use some or all of its mid-level exception to keep him beyond this year.
The good news is that Quentin Grimes, whom the Sixers acquired before the trade deadline from the Dallas Mavericks, will be a restricted free agent. Philadelphia can and should match offers to retain him.
Other flight risks: Kelly Oubre Jr. (player option), Andre Drummond (player option), Quentin Grimes (restricted)
Phoenix Suns: Kevin Durant
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Although we've been focused on free agency here, the Suns may be the exception. Kevin Durant is under contract for next season at $54.7 million, but he could be the next star to force a trade.
The Suns wouldn't have to comply with a Durant trade request, but if he's going to leave as a free agent in 2026, they'd be better off getting value in return for him this summer. Even at 36, Durant is among the most talented scorers in the NBA.
Outside of Durant, Tyus Jones is on a minimum contract and would likely leave to sign with any team offering more.
Other flight risks: Bol Bol, Mason Plumlee, Tyus Jones
Portland Trail Blazers: Dalano Banton
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The Blazers have most of their players under contract next season, which is good news given how much stronger they've been over the last few months. They might not reach the play-in tournament, but they're headed in a positive direction.
Matisse Thybulle is a lock to pick up his $11.6 million player option, leaving Dalano Banton as Portland's primary free agent. He's a 15-minute-per-game rotation player who's averaging 7.7 points while shooting 36.2 percent from three-point range.
The Blazers may not have the roster room next season to prioritize Banton.
Other flight risks: Jabari Walker (restricted)
Sacramento Kings: Jake LaRavia
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The Kings have a dilemma with Jake LaRavia, which they were well aware of when they acquired him from the Memphis Grizzlies at the trade deadline.
Because the Grizzlies declined LaRavia's fourth-year rookie-scale option, the most Sacramento can pay to retain him is $5.2 million. Should another team offer anything more, the Kings have no recourse.
LaRavia shot 44.4 percent from three for Memphis across 47 games this season. He's still finding his way in Sacramento (37.5 percent from deep in 17 games), but the Kings may realize he's a short-term fix just for this season.
Other flight risks: Trey Lyles
San Antonio Spurs: Chris Paul
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When the Spurs brought in Chris Paul to a one-year, $10.5 million deal this past offseason, many in the league thought they signed him to eventually trade him. Instead, the team liked what he could do as a veteran floor leader with Victor Wembanyama.
Unfortunately, Wembanyama was shut down for the season after the All-Star break because of deep vein thrombosis. But keeping Paul was always in the plans, even after the Spurs traded for point guard De'Aaron Fox.
Next year's outlook for Paul is hazier because of Fox's presence, rookie guard Stephon Castle blossoming and Wembanyama's uncertain status. Paul could return to San Antonio or look to join a contender that's closer to a title.
Other flight risks: Sandro Mamukelashvili
Toronto Raptors: Chris Boucher
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The Raptors made their offseason play at the trade deadline, acquiring Brandon Ingram from the New Orleans Pelicans and extending him on a lucrative, multi-year deal.
Now, the Raptors may need to get rid of some players if they hope to avoid the luxury tax next year.
Chris Boucher has been a fixture in Toronto for years and could sign an extension before free agency. However, he figures to move on this summer if the money isn't right.
Other flight risks: Garrett Temple
Utah Jazz: John Collins
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The Jazz don't have any major flight risks. They'd likely be fine if John Collins declined his $26.6 million player option. If he does, they could regret not dealing him before the trade deadline, but his contract size might have been prohibitive for most teams.
More likely than not, Collins will opt in unless he has a long-term, mid-level deal on the table. Even in that scenario, he might choose the one-year payday first.
Everyone else on the regular roster is under contract for next year, though KJ Martin, Svi Mykhailiuk, Johnny Juzang and Jaden Springer are all on non-guaranteed contracts.
Other flight risks: KJ Martin (non-guaranteed)
Washington Wizards: Malcolm Brogdon
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The Wizards are one of the worst teams in the NBA, and rebuilding will take time. However, they shouldn't be worried about losing free agents.
Washington took on Khris Middleton at the trade deadline knowing that he'll pick up his $33.3 million player option. Richaun Holmes has only $250,000 of his $13.3 million salary guaranteed until Jan. 10, so he's more likely to be waived or traded than he is to complete the 2025-26 season with the Wizards.
Brogdon is the Wizards' only unrestricted free agent, and he may be more of a sign-and-trade candidate than a priority for Washington beyond the year.
Other flight risks: Khris Middleton (player option), Richaun Holmes (trade or waiver)
Email Eric Pincus at eric.pincus@gmail.com and follow him on X @EricPincus and Bluesky.
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